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2021-04-12

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Goldman:"Don't Fight The Fed" - The Fed Wants Higher Inflation, And It Will Get It<blockquote>高盛：“不要与美联储对抗”——美联储想要更高的通胀，它会得到它</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":342240905,"tweetId":"342240905","gmtCreate":1618225360907,"gmtModify":1634294338883,"author":{"id":3563875545226282,"idStr":"3563875545226282","authorId":3563875545226282,"authorIdStr":"3563875545226282","name":"aalyn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a665f066b4aaca8c78e998356714d014","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":44,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>like amd comment pls</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>like amd comment pls</body></html>","text":"like amd comment pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342240905","repostId":1149792365,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149792365","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618224620,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149792365?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 18:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman:\"Don't Fight The Fed\" - The Fed Wants Higher Inflation, And It Will Get It<blockquote>高盛：“不要与美联储对抗”——美联储想要更高的通胀，它会得到它</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149792365","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Summarizing investor sentiment in his Weekly Kickstart note, Goldman's David Kostin writes that thre","content":"Summarizing investor sentiment in his Weekly Kickstart note, Goldman's David Kostin writes that three macro issues dominated investor discussions about the US equity market since the start of the year:rates, inflation, and taxes.<blockquote>高盛的 David Kostin 在每周 Kickstart 报告中总结了投资者情绪，他写道，自今年年初以来，三个宏观问题主导了投资者对美国股市的讨论：利率、通货膨胀和税收。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, interest rates have been the most important of these topics. In a rising interest rate environment, short duration outperforms long duration in both fixed income and equities and sure enough, of all Goldman thematic baskets, duration has been the best long-short trade, posting a +25% return since the start of 2021<blockquote>毫不奇怪，利率一直是这些话题中最重要的。在利率上升的环境下，固定收益和股票的短期久期表现优于长期久期，果然，在所有高盛主题篮子中，久期久期一直是最好的多空交易，自 2021 年初以来回报率为 +25%</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685d3ea377dd6193477c5905eb78ab4e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A sector-neutral portfolio of short duration stocks (GSTHSDUR) has climbed by +24% YTD compared with a -1% return for a long duration portfolio (GSTHLDUR). As Exhibit 1 shows, duration has been a major contributor to alpha generation.<blockquote>短期股票行业中立投资组合 (GSTHSDUR) 年初至今已上涨 +24%，而长期投资组合 (GSTHLDUR) 的回报率为 -1%。如图1所示，持续时间是阿尔法生成的一个主要因素。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8828e038fce357b696dfdab85d3e3b6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Looking ahead, Goldman expects more of the same: a static fed funds rate at the zero lower bound (until 2024 according to the Fed) combined with a continued rise in both real rates and breakeven inflation means a steeper yield curve. Meanwhile, amid expectations of historic economic overheating, Goldman predicts thatGDP growth will peak in the current quarter at 10.5% and nominal rates may rise by another 15 bps to 1.8%. As such, short duration stocks should continue to outperform, which also means more weakness for tech names. However, according to Kostin, \"some clients argue Treasury yields peaked at 1.75% at the end of March, and secular-growth Tech stocks will now outperform once again.\" To be sure, that's precisely what we have seen recently (read \"Did The \"Value Rotation\" Just Die Again: Some Market Thoughts From Goldman\").<blockquote>展望未来，高盛预计会出现更多相同的情况：联邦基金利率保持在零下限（根据美联储的说法，直到 2024 年），加上实际利率和盈亏平衡通胀的持续上升，意味着收益率曲线更加陡峭。与此同时，在历史性经济过热的预期中，高盛预测本季度 GDP 增长率将达到 10.5% 的峰值，名义利率可能再上升 15 个基点至 1.8%因此，短期股票应该会继续跑赢大盘，这也意味着科技股将更加疲软。然而，科斯汀表示，“一些客户认为美国国债收益率在 3 月底达到 1.75% 的峰值，长期增长的科技股现在将再次跑赢大盘。”可以肯定的是，这正是我们最近所看到的（阅读““价值轮动”是否再次消亡：高盛的一些市场思考”）。</blockquote> Kostin then takes us to the depths of financial market folklore and repeats what may be the single biggest cliche in all of finance:\"Don’t fight the Fed”is a quip investors have learned to ignore at their peril.\"<blockquote>然后，科斯汀带我们深入了解金融市场民间传说，并重复了所有金融界最大的陈词滥调：“不要和美联储对抗。”这是投资者已经学会忽视的一句俏皮话，后果自负。”</blockquote> Why is this relevant? Because as Goldman notes next, \"what the central bank wants is usually what it gets, sooner or later.A year ago, the Fed’s forceful intervention to backstop the money market sent both companies and fund managers a clear message about its willingness to provide liquidity. The Fed set a floor beneath equities and sparked the 80% rally that has lifted the S&amp;P 500 to an all-time high.\" (yes, that's Goldman admitting the Fed is now in the stock market manipulation business, a claim which not long ago was made by the occasional \"tinfoil-wearing\" website such as this one, for which it got much abuse).<blockquote>为什么这是相关的？因为正如高盛接下来指出的，“央行想要的通常是迟早得到的。一年前，美联储为支持货币市场而进行的有力干预向公司和基金经理发出了一个明确的信息，即美联储愿意提供流动性。美联储为股市设定了下限，并引发了 80% 的反弹，将标普500推至历史新高。”（是的，那是高盛承认美联储现在参与了股市操纵业务，不久前偶尔出现的“锡箔纸穿戴”网站（如这个网站）也提出了这一说法，并因此受到了很多辱骂）。</blockquote> As a result, Goldman warns thatthe S&amp;P has rallied 9% YTD and now trades at our mid-year 2021 target of 4100.Our year-end and 12-month target implies a gain of 5% (7% with dividends).\"<blockquote>因此，高盛警告称标准普尔今年迄今已上涨 9%，目前交易价格为 2021 年年中 4100 点的目标。我们的年底和 12 个月目标意味着增长 5%（含股息为 7%）。”</blockquote> That said, stocks could go far higher, especially short duration stocks. After all, as Kostin repeats, \"the Fed wants higher inflation. It has rejected pre-emptive tightening and instead under average inflation targeting wants core PCE inflation to average 2% over time.Core PCE averaged 1.45% year/year during the first two months of 2021. Although inflation readings are likely to be elevated during the next few months –peaking in April at 2.3% –it is likely to be transitory, and below 2.0% on a sustainable basis until 2023, according to the forecasts of our economics team.\"<blockquote>也就是说，股票可能会走高，尤其是短期股票。毕竟，正如科斯汀重复的那样，“美联储希望提高通胀。它拒绝先发制人的紧缩政策，而是在平均通胀目标下，希望核心PCE通胀率随着时间的推移平均达到2%。2021年前两个月，核心PCE平均同比增长1.45%。尽管未来几个月通胀数据可能会上升（4 月份达到 2.3% 的峰值），但根据我们经济团队的预测，这可能是暂时的，并且在 2023 年之前可持续地低于 2.0%。”</blockquote> How do publicly-traded stocks fit into the inflation picture? According to Goldman (andMorgan Stanley)It is all about margins.<blockquote>公开交易的股票如何适应通胀形势？据高盛（和摩根士丹利）称一切都是为了利润。</blockquote> Picking up on the latest warning by MS chief equity strategist Michael Wilson who last week spooked clients with his chart showing the collapse in the ISM index due to the surge in Prices Paid...<blockquote>微软首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）上周发布的最新警告令客户感到震惊，他的图表显示，由于支付的价格飙升，ISM指数暴跌……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea610731d17d99c9b8549441c171be71\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... Kostin notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) segmented by stage of processing shows that raw materials inflation (year/year) equaled 9.3% in March 2021, the prices of intermediate goods rose by 4.0%, although finished goods inflation equaled only 1.3%.<blockquote>...Kostin指出，按加工阶段细分的生产者价格指数（PPI）显示，2021年3月，原材料通胀（同比）相当于9.3%，中间产品价格上涨4.0%，尽管制成品通胀仅为1.3%。</blockquote> Based on his recent conversations with managements, firms are experiencing higher input costs stemming from supply chain disruptions, rising commodity prices, and increased labor costs. To be sure, increasingly more firms are defending margins by passing the higher costs along to their end market customers.KMB recently announced that effective in late June it will lift the net selling price of the majority of its North American consumer products in the “mid-to-high single digits.”But in the case of US auto manufacturers, the solid end demand environment that has allowed companies to cut incentives on limited inventory has been offset by margin headwinds related to production challenges, most notably the lack of semiconductors. Other cost pressures include higher shipping costs and manufacturing expenses related to factory downtime.<blockquote>根据他最近与管理层的谈话，由于供应链中断、大宗商品价格上涨和劳动力成本增加，企业正在经历更高的投入成本。可以肯定的是，越来越多的公司通过将更高的成本转嫁给终端市场客户来捍卫利润率。九巴最近宣布，自 6 月下旬起，将其大部分北美消费品的净售价上调至 “中高个位数”。但就美国汽车制造商而言，稳定的最终需求环境使企业能够削减有限库存的激励措施，但与生产挑战相关的利润率阻力（最明显的是半导体短缺）抵消了这一影响。其他成本压力包括更高的运输成本和与工厂停机相关的制造费用。</blockquote> And so with margins squeezed, it's will be all about the ability to pass through cost increases. Notably, this would be a reversal to the trend observed in the past year: as Goldman notes, firms with high pricing power sharply lagged during the past year and the huge valuation premium previously accorded these stocks has disappeared. That's because firms with low pricing power have historically outperformed when S&amp;P 500 profit margins expand, but that period is coming to an end asrising inflation will restrict some firms from boosting margins while firms with pricing power will benefit.<blockquote>因此，随着利润率的挤压，一切都取决于承受成本增加的能力。值得注意的是，这将扭转过去一年观察到的趋势：正如高盛指出的那样，具有高定价权的公司在过去一年中严重落后，此前给予这些股票的巨大估值溢价已经消失。这是因为当标普500利润率扩大时，定价权较低的公司历来表现优异，但这一时期即将结束通胀上升将限制一些公司提高利润率，而拥有定价权的公司将受益。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/907299fc9f089058e4584cf12a1a1860\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> To find suitable investment candidates, Goldman screens for high and low pricing power stocks in the Russell 1000 based on the level and variability of each stock’s gross profit margins. The chart below lists 55 stocks with high pricing power.<blockquote>为了找到合适的投资对象，高盛根据每只股票的毛利率水平和可变性，在罗素 1000 指数中筛选出高定价和低定价的电力股。下图列出了55只具有高定价权的股票。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4578a6e28e0494915624bfcc884fdc36\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman:\"Don't Fight The Fed\" - The Fed Wants Higher Inflation, And It Will Get It<blockquote>高盛：“不要与美联储对抗”——美联储想要更高的通胀，它会得到它</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman:\"Don't Fight The Fed\" - The Fed Wants Higher Inflation, And It Will Get It<blockquote>高盛：“不要与美联储对抗”——美联储想要更高的通胀，它会得到它</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-04-12 18:50\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummarizing investor sentiment in his Weekly Kickstart note, Goldman's David Kostin writes that three macro issues dominated investor discussions about the US equity market since the start of the year:rates, inflation, and taxes.<blockquote>高盛的 David Kostin 在每周 Kickstart 报告中总结了投资者情绪，他写道，自今年年初以来，三个宏观问题主导了投资者对美国股市的讨论：利率、通货膨胀和税收。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, interest rates have been the most important of these topics. In a rising interest rate environment, short duration outperforms long duration in both fixed income and equities and sure enough, of all Goldman thematic baskets, duration has been the best long-short trade, posting a +25% return since the start of 2021<blockquote>毫不奇怪，利率一直是这些话题中最重要的。在利率上升的环境下，固定收益和股票的短期久期表现优于长期久期，果然，在所有高盛主题篮子中，久期久期一直是最好的多空交易，自 2021 年初以来回报率为 +25%</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/685d3ea377dd6193477c5905eb78ab4e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A sector-neutral portfolio of short duration stocks (GSTHSDUR) has climbed by +24% YTD compared with a -1% return for a long duration portfolio (GSTHLDUR). As Exhibit 1 shows, duration has been a major contributor to alpha generation.<blockquote>短期股票行业中立投资组合 (GSTHSDUR) 年初至今已上涨 +24%，而长期投资组合 (GSTHLDUR) 的回报率为 -1%。如图1所示，持续时间是阿尔法生成的一个主要因素。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8828e038fce357b696dfdab85d3e3b6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Looking ahead, Goldman expects more of the same: a static fed funds rate at the zero lower bound (until 2024 according to the Fed) combined with a continued rise in both real rates and breakeven inflation means a steeper yield curve. Meanwhile, amid expectations of historic economic overheating, Goldman predicts thatGDP growth will peak in the current quarter at 10.5% and nominal rates may rise by another 15 bps to 1.8%. As such, short duration stocks should continue to outperform, which also means more weakness for tech names. However, according to Kostin, \"some clients argue Treasury yields peaked at 1.75% at the end of March, and secular-growth Tech stocks will now outperform once again.\" To be sure, that's precisely what we have seen recently (read \"Did The \"Value Rotation\" Just Die Again: Some Market Thoughts From Goldman\").<blockquote>展望未来，高盛预计会出现更多相同的情况：联邦基金利率保持在零下限（根据美联储的说法，直到 2024 年），加上实际利率和盈亏平衡通胀的持续上升，意味着收益率曲线更加陡峭。与此同时，在历史性经济过热的预期中，高盛预测本季度 GDP 增长率将达到 10.5% 的峰值，名义利率可能再上升 15 个基点至 1.8%因此，短期股票应该会继续跑赢大盘，这也意味着科技股将更加疲软。然而，科斯汀表示，“一些客户认为美国国债收益率在 3 月底达到 1.75% 的峰值，长期增长的科技股现在将再次跑赢大盘。”可以肯定的是，这正是我们最近所看到的（阅读““价值轮动”是否再次消亡：高盛的一些市场思考”）。</blockquote> Kostin then takes us to the depths of financial market folklore and repeats what may be the single biggest cliche in all of finance:\"Don’t fight the Fed”is a quip investors have learned to ignore at their peril.\"<blockquote>然后，科斯汀带我们深入了解金融市场民间传说，并重复了所有金融界最大的陈词滥调：“不要和美联储对抗。”这是投资者已经学会忽视的一句俏皮话，后果自负。”</blockquote> Why is this relevant? Because as Goldman notes next, \"what the central bank wants is usually what it gets, sooner or later.A year ago, the Fed’s forceful intervention to backstop the money market sent both companies and fund managers a clear message about its willingness to provide liquidity. The Fed set a floor beneath equities and sparked the 80% rally that has lifted the S&amp;P 500 to an all-time high.\" (yes, that's Goldman admitting the Fed is now in the stock market manipulation business, a claim which not long ago was made by the occasional \"tinfoil-wearing\" website such as this one, for which it got much abuse).<blockquote>为什么这是相关的？因为正如高盛接下来指出的，“央行想要的通常是迟早得到的。一年前，美联储为支持货币市场而进行的有力干预向公司和基金经理发出了一个明确的信息，即美联储愿意提供流动性。美联储为股市设定了下限，并引发了 80% 的反弹，将标普500推至历史新高。”（是的，那是高盛承认美联储现在参与了股市操纵业务，不久前偶尔出现的“锡箔纸穿戴”网站（如这个网站）也提出了这一说法，并因此受到了很多辱骂）。</blockquote> As a result, Goldman warns thatthe S&amp;P has rallied 9% YTD and now trades at our mid-year 2021 target of 4100.Our year-end and 12-month target implies a gain of 5% (7% with dividends).\"<blockquote>因此，高盛警告称标准普尔今年迄今已上涨 9%，目前交易价格为 2021 年年中 4100 点的目标。我们的年底和 12 个月目标意味着增长 5%（含股息为 7%）。”</blockquote> That said, stocks could go far higher, especially short duration stocks. After all, as Kostin repeats, \"the Fed wants higher inflation. It has rejected pre-emptive tightening and instead under average inflation targeting wants core PCE inflation to average 2% over time.Core PCE averaged 1.45% year/year during the first two months of 2021. Although inflation readings are likely to be elevated during the next few months –peaking in April at 2.3% –it is likely to be transitory, and below 2.0% on a sustainable basis until 2023, according to the forecasts of our economics team.\"<blockquote>也就是说，股票可能会走高，尤其是短期股票。毕竟，正如科斯汀重复的那样，“美联储希望提高通胀。它拒绝先发制人的紧缩政策，而是在平均通胀目标下，希望核心PCE通胀率随着时间的推移平均达到2%。2021年前两个月，核心PCE平均同比增长1.45%。尽管未来几个月通胀数据可能会上升（4 月份达到 2.3% 的峰值），但根据我们经济团队的预测，这可能是暂时的，并且在 2023 年之前可持续地低于 2.0%。”</blockquote> How do publicly-traded stocks fit into the inflation picture? According to Goldman (andMorgan Stanley)It is all about margins.<blockquote>公开交易的股票如何适应通胀形势？据高盛（和摩根士丹利）称一切都是为了利润。</blockquote> Picking up on the latest warning by MS chief equity strategist Michael Wilson who last week spooked clients with his chart showing the collapse in the ISM index due to the surge in Prices Paid...<blockquote>微软首席股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）上周发布的最新警告令客户感到震惊，他的图表显示，由于支付的价格飙升，ISM指数暴跌……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea610731d17d99c9b8549441c171be71\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... Kostin notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) segmented by stage of processing shows that raw materials inflation (year/year) equaled 9.3% in March 2021, the prices of intermediate goods rose by 4.0%, although finished goods inflation equaled only 1.3%.<blockquote>...Kostin指出，按加工阶段细分的生产者价格指数（PPI）显示，2021年3月，原材料通胀（同比）相当于9.3%，中间产品价格上涨4.0%，尽管制成品通胀仅为1.3%。</blockquote> Based on his recent conversations with managements, firms are experiencing higher input costs stemming from supply chain disruptions, rising commodity prices, and increased labor costs. To be sure, increasingly more firms are defending margins by passing the higher costs along to their end market customers.KMB recently announced that effective in late June it will lift the net selling price of the majority of its North American consumer products in the “mid-to-high single digits.”But in the case of US auto manufacturers, the solid end demand environment that has allowed companies to cut incentives on limited inventory has been offset by margin headwinds related to production challenges, most notably the lack of semiconductors. Other cost pressures include higher shipping costs and manufacturing expenses related to factory downtime.<blockquote>根据他最近与管理层的谈话，由于供应链中断、大宗商品价格上涨和劳动力成本增加，企业正在经历更高的投入成本。可以肯定的是，越来越多的公司通过将更高的成本转嫁给终端市场客户来捍卫利润率。九巴最近宣布，自 6 月下旬起，将其大部分北美消费品的净售价上调至 “中高个位数”。但就美国汽车制造商而言，稳定的最终需求环境使企业能够削减有限库存的激励措施，但与生产挑战相关的利润率阻力（最明显的是半导体短缺）抵消了这一影响。其他成本压力包括更高的运输成本和与工厂停机相关的制造费用。</blockquote> And so with margins squeezed, it's will be all about the ability to pass through cost increases. Notably, this would be a reversal to the trend observed in the past year: as Goldman notes, firms with high pricing power sharply lagged during the past year and the huge valuation premium previously accorded these stocks has disappeared. That's because firms with low pricing power have historically outperformed when S&amp;P 500 profit margins expand, but that period is coming to an end asrising inflation will restrict some firms from boosting margins while firms with pricing power will benefit.<blockquote>因此，随着利润率的挤压，一切都取决于承受成本增加的能力。值得注意的是，这将扭转过去一年观察到的趋势：正如高盛指出的那样，具有高定价权的公司在过去一年中严重落后，此前给予这些股票的巨大估值溢价已经消失。这是因为当标普500利润率扩大时，定价权较低的公司历来表现优异，但这一时期即将结束通胀上升将限制一些公司提高利润率，而拥有定价权的公司将受益。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/907299fc9f089058e4584cf12a1a1860\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> To find suitable investment candidates, Goldman screens for high and low pricing power stocks in the Russell 1000 based on the level and variability of each stock’s gross profit margins. The chart below lists 55 stocks with high pricing power.<blockquote>为了找到合适的投资对象，高盛根据每只股票的毛利率水平和可变性，在罗素 1000 指数中筛选出高定价和低定价的电力股。下图列出了55只具有高定价权的股票。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4578a6e28e0494915624bfcc884fdc36\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-dont-fight-fed-fed-wants-higher-inflation-and-it-will-get-it\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-dont-fight-fed-fed-wants-higher-inflation-and-it-will-get-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149792365","content_text":"Summarizing investor sentiment in his Weekly Kickstart note, Goldman's David Kostin writes that three macro issues dominated investor discussions about the US equity market since the start of the year:rates, inflation, and taxes.\nNot surprisingly, interest rates have been the most important of these topics. In a rising interest rate environment, short duration outperforms long duration in both fixed income and equities and sure enough, of all Goldman thematic baskets, duration has been the best long-short trade, posting a +25% return since the start of 2021\nA sector-neutral portfolio of short duration stocks (GSTHSDUR) has climbed by +24% YTD compared with a -1% return for a long duration portfolio (GSTHLDUR). As Exhibit 1 shows, duration has been a major contributor to alpha generation.\n\nLooking ahead, Goldman expects more of the same: a static fed funds rate at the zero lower bound (until 2024 according to the Fed) combined with a continued rise in both real rates and breakeven inflation means a steeper yield curve. Meanwhile, amid expectations of historic economic overheating, Goldman predicts thatGDP growth will peak in the current quarter at 10.5% and nominal rates may rise by another 15 bps to 1.8%. As such, short duration stocks should continue to outperform, which also means more weakness for tech names. However, according to Kostin, \"some clients argue Treasury yields peaked at 1.75% at the end of March, and secular-growth Tech stocks will now outperform once again.\" To be sure, that's precisely what we have seen recently (read \"Did The \"Value Rotation\" Just Die Again: Some Market Thoughts From Goldman\").\nKostin then takes us to the depths of financial market folklore and repeats what may be the single biggest cliche in all of finance:\"Don’t fight the Fed”is a quip investors have learned to ignore at their peril.\"\nWhy is this relevant? Because as Goldman notes next, \"what the central bank wants is usually what it gets, sooner or later.A year ago, the Fed’s forceful intervention to backstop the money market sent both companies and fund managers a clear message about its willingness to provide liquidity. The Fed set a floor beneath equities and sparked the 80% rally that has lifted the S&P 500 to an all-time high.\" (yes, that's Goldman admitting the Fed is now in the stock market manipulation business, a claim which not long ago was made by the occasional \"tinfoil-wearing\" website such as this one, for which it got much abuse).\nAs a result, Goldman warns thatthe S&P has rallied 9% YTD and now trades at our mid-year 2021 target of 4100.Our year-end and 12-month target implies a gain of 5% (7% with dividends).\"\nThat said, stocks could go far higher, especially short duration stocks. After all, as Kostin repeats, \"the Fed wants higher inflation. It has rejected pre-emptive tightening and instead under average inflation targeting wants core PCE inflation to average 2% over time.Core PCE averaged 1.45% year/year during the first two months of 2021. Although inflation readings are likely to be elevated during the next few months –peaking in April at 2.3% –it is likely to be transitory, and below 2.0% on a sustainable basis until 2023, according to the forecasts of our economics team.\"\nHow do publicly-traded stocks fit into the inflation picture? According to Goldman (andMorgan Stanley)It is all about margins.\nPicking up on the latest warning by MS chief equity strategist Michael Wilson who last week spooked clients with his chart showing the collapse in the ISM index due to the surge in Prices Paid...\n\n... Kostin notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) segmented by stage of processing shows that raw materials inflation (year/year) equaled 9.3% in March 2021, the prices of intermediate goods rose by 4.0%, although finished goods inflation equaled only 1.3%.\nBased on his recent conversations with managements, firms are experiencing higher input costs stemming from supply chain disruptions, rising commodity prices, and increased labor costs. To be sure, increasingly more firms are defending margins by passing the higher costs along to their end market customers.KMB recently announced that effective in late June it will lift the net selling price of the majority of its North American consumer products in the “mid-to-high single digits.”But in the case of US auto manufacturers, the solid end demand environment that has allowed companies to cut incentives on limited inventory has been offset by margin headwinds related to production challenges, most notably the lack of semiconductors. Other cost pressures include higher shipping costs and manufacturing expenses related to factory downtime.\nAnd so with margins squeezed, it's will be all about the ability to pass through cost increases. Notably, this would be a reversal to the trend observed in the past year: as Goldman notes, firms with high pricing power sharply lagged during the past year and the huge valuation premium previously accorded these stocks has disappeared. That's because firms with low pricing power have historically outperformed when S&P 500 profit margins expand, but that period is coming to an end asrising inflation will restrict some firms from boosting margins while firms with pricing power will benefit.\n\nTo find suitable investment candidates, Goldman screens for high and low pricing power stocks in the Russell 1000 based on the level and variability of each stock’s gross profit margins. The chart below lists 55 stocks with high pricing power.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/342240905"}