JPKS
2021-04-12
Jeeeezz
Is Bitcoin Displacing Gold As An Inflation Hedge?<blockquote>比特币正在取代黄金作为通胀对冲工具吗？</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
3
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":342249862,"tweetId":"342249862","gmtCreate":1618225479156,"gmtModify":1634294338178,"author":{"id":3578294070796563,"idStr":"3578294070796563","authorId":3578294070796563,"authorIdStr":"3578294070796563","name":"JPKS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6413e1760b9d15bff94ffb34fdc6026f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Jeeeezz</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Jeeeezz</p></body></html>","text":"Jeeeezz","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342249862","repostId":1121930993,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121930993","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618224287,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121930993?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 18:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Bitcoin Displacing Gold As An Inflation Hedge?<blockquote>比特币正在取代黄金作为通胀对冲工具吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121930993","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Silver and Gold, and Bitcoin\nHow to explain bitcoin? As I said a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to d","content":"<p><b>Silver and Gold, and Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>白银、黄金和比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> How to explain bitcoin? As I said a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to dismiss the digital currency as a classic investment bubble because — unlike any of the other historical manias which have seen similarly extreme gains in price — it has formed a series of bubbles, which have burst and then reinflated.<b>Bubbles aren’t supposed to do this</b>: They are booms grown so large that they cannot gently deflate and must burst, never to return.</p><p><blockquote>如何解释比特币？正如我几周前所说，很难将数字货币视为典型的投资泡沫，因为与历史上任何其他价格出现类似极端上涨的狂热不同，它已经形成了一系列泡沫，这些泡沫已经破裂，然后再次膨胀。<b>气泡不应该这样做</b>：它们是长得如此之大的繁荣，以至于不能轻轻地放气，必须破裂，一去不复返了。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has many of the symptoms of a speculative mania, led by the sheer excitement it inspires in its believers. But it’s hard to say what the digital asset’s value should be. Like gold, value is in the eye of the beholder. It has no intrinsic value, and while the same is true of banknotes, it has no government standing behind it.</p><p><blockquote>比特币有许多投机狂热的症状，这是由它在信徒中激发的纯粹兴奋所主导的。但很难说数字资产的价值应该是多少。就像黄金一样，价值在于情人眼里出西施。它没有内在价值，虽然纸币也是如此，但它背后没有政府。</blockquote></p><p> Plenty of people are grappling with the same issue, and the value of bitcoin might best be derived from its absence. To see how this works, look at the odd relationship between gold and Treasury bonds, in this chart from Gavekal Research Ltd.<b>Generally, Treasuries beat gold when people aren’t too worried about inflation, while gold wins when there are inflationary concerns. Except at present, both are falling:</b></p><p><blockquote>很多人都在努力解决同样的问题，而比特币的价值可能最好来自于它的缺失。要了解这是如何运作的，请看看Gavekal Research Ltd.的这张图表中黄金和美国国债之间的奇怪关系。<b>一般来说，当人们不太担心通胀时，美国国债会击败黄金，而当存在通胀担忧时，黄金会获胜。除了目前，两者都在下跌：</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8f06f8cd9731b383f9d0181930e6289\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is happening despite widespread belief in a new wave of reflationary growth, and a historic amount of money-printing, normally inflationary, illustrated here by growth in M2:</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们普遍相信新一波的通货再膨胀增长，并且印钞量达到了历史水平，通常是通货膨胀，M2的增长就说明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f6aff63854c5946c003f9782f80a755\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Gold is generally thought of as an inflationary hedge, but if we judge it instead in terms of silver, we see that its price has roughly halved since the Covid panic last year.</b>Gold has grown steadily more expensive relative to silver since the bizarre year of 1980 when prices of both precious metals went bonkers. The last year has seen a spike and then a reversal for the ages:</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金通常被认为是通胀对冲工具，但如果我们用白银来判断，我们会发现自去年新冠疫情恐慌以来，其价格已经大致减半。</b>自1980年这两种贵金属价格疯狂上涨以来，黄金相对于白银的价格稳步上涨。去年出现了峰值，然后又出现了多年的逆转：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90325ba5146c527b0fe6c902382b31c3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What drives the gold price, then?</b>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research Inc. comes up with a different idea. The following chart shows three centuries of the gold/silver ratio. The relationship was stable until confidence in the gold standard eroded and then collapsed after the First World War. During the decades of the soft gold standard of the postwar Bretton Woods agreement the ratio returned to its old level, only to head back to the stratosphere once Bretton Woods broke down 50 years ago:</p><p><blockquote><b>那么是什么推动了金价呢？</b>BCA研究公司的达瓦尔·乔希提出了一个不同的想法。下图显示了三个世纪以来的黄金/白银比率。这种关系一直很稳定，直到人们对金本位制的信心受到侵蚀，然后在第一次世界大战后崩溃。在战后布雷顿森林协定的软金本位制的几十年里，这一比率回到了以前的水平，但在50年前布雷顿森林协定崩溃后，这一比率又回到了平流层：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77d3e6c10076e2672025d9f70cf13fa0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Joshi contends that this shows demand for gold over silver is driven by its perception as a superior “anti-fiat” asset. If people are worried about the long-term buying power of government-issued currencies, they will be prepared to pay more for gold, with its perceived role as a store of value. How then do we explain gold’s sudden fall in silver terms over the last year?</p><p><blockquote>乔希认为，这表明对黄金相对于白银的需求是由其被视为优越的“反法定”资产所驱动的。如果人们担心政府发行货币的长期购买力，他们将准备为黄金支付更多费用，因为黄金被认为是一种价值储存手段。那么，我们如何解释去年黄金相对于白银的突然下跌呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Joshi argument is that bitcoin has risen as an alternative anti-fiat asset. It has been popular because of the libertarian anti-government ideas that have accompanied the digital currency since its inception. Bitcoin’s increase in scale to become better known and much easier to obtain now makes it a much more viable competitor for the shiny metal.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乔希的论点是，比特币已经成为另类反菲亚特资产。它之所以受欢迎，是因为自数字货币诞生以来就伴随着自由主义反政府思想。比特币的规模不断扩大，变得更加知名，也更容易获得，这使它成为这种闪亮金属更可行的竞争对手。</b></blockquote></p><p> There is circumstantial evidence that some money has flowed directly from gold into bitcoin. The following chart is from Charles Morris of ByteTree Asset Management Ltd. and shows flows into investment funds holding both assets since last May:</p><p><blockquote>有间接证据表明，一些资金直接从黄金流入比特币。下图来自ByteTree Asset Management Ltd.的Charles Morris，显示了自去年5月以来流入持有这两种资产的投资基金的资金情况：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecdeb7acff0aeb1150b22b1daed5e655\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Not all of the money leaving gold has gone into bitcoin, but quite a big chunk has.</b>Institutions appear to be making a decision to allocate some money to bitcoin as a hedge against a fiat collapse. (Another important destination appears to be Chinese bonds.) Bitcoin’s strength in the last few months has come despite a distinct drop-off in Google searches for the term, which might be taken as a proxy for retail interest, or the kind of excitement that typically accompanies a bubble:</p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有离开黄金的资金都流入了比特币，但相当大一部分流入了。</b>机构似乎正在决定向比特币分配一些资金，以对冲法定货币崩溃。（另一个重要目的地似乎是中国债券。）尽管谷歌对该词的搜索量明显下降，但比特币在过去几个月中的强势还是出现了，这可能被视为散户兴趣或兴奋的代表。通常伴随着泡沫：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Bitcoin’s performance over the last year is directly aligned with movements in bond yields.</b>When yields rise, so does bitcoin. This implies that the digital currency benefits directly from the “reflation trade” — or the belief that inflation is coming. And to be clear, before anyone accuses me of chart crime, this one has two scales. Bitcoin is prone to much more titanic moves than Treasury bonds. The point is that they both move in the same direction at the same time:</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币去年的表现与债券收益率的变动直接相关。</b>当收益率上升时，比特币也会上升。这意味着数字货币直接受益于“通货再膨胀交易”——或者说相信通货膨胀即将到来。需要明确的是，在任何人指控我图表犯罪之前，这个有两个尺度。与国债相比，比特币容易出现更大的波动。关键是它们同时向同一个方向移动：</blockquote></p><p> A rather more scientific analysis by the British research firm Quant Insight Ltd. shows bitcoin’s key sensitivity is to inflation breakevens.<b>The same is true of gold. The difference, at present, is that bitcoin is positively correlated with breakevens, gaining when fears about inflation rise, while gold is negatively correlated.</b></p><p><blockquote>英国研究公司Quant Insight Ltd.进行的一项更为科学的分析显示，比特币的关键敏感性是通胀盈亏平衡。<b>黄金也是如此。目前的不同之处在于，比特币与盈亏平衡正相关，当对通胀的担忧加剧时就会上涨，而黄金则呈负相关。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4914e4b3acf9a51a825d944e7be4c89\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Adding another layer, Morris of ByteTree suggests that bitcoin is behaving like a growth stock, and gold has never done that:</p><p><blockquote>ByteTree的Morris又增加了一层，他表示比特币的表现就像一只成长型股票，而黄金从未这样做过：</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin seems to have it all. It is one of the few assets that seems to benefit from a rising bond yield – something we reserve for true growth stocks and those cyclicals enjoying recovery. Conversely, this is normally detrimental to traditional low-growth safe assets such as gold, defensive yield stocks and bonds. Unlike defensive stocks and bonds, Bitcoin and gold are both inflation-sensitive, but gold is happiest when the world faces a downward spiral. In contrast, Bitcoin prefers a stronger economy, when the yield is rising. This is where we are today. <b>The current drive in bitcoin therefore looks like a bid to protect against currency debasement, by means of a measured transfer from gold, which is deemed the weaker anti-fiat asset for the moment.</b>Bitcoin’s recent pause (at a level where its price is still double what it was at the start the year) overlaps with a pause in the bond market, which had seemed to get ahead of itself. Real 10-year yields have essentially moved sideways for more than a month since their big rise ended in late February:</p><p><blockquote>比特币似乎拥有一切。它是少数似乎受益于债券收益率上升的资产之一——这是我们为真正的成长型股票和那些正在复苏的周期性股票保留的资产。相反，这通常不利于传统的低增长安全资产，如黄金、防御性收益股票和债券。与防御性股票和债券不同，比特币和黄金都对通胀敏感，但当世界面临螺旋式下降时，黄金是最高兴的。相比之下，当收益率上升时，比特币更喜欢经济更强劲。这就是我们今天的处境。<b>因此，比特币目前的举措看起来像是通过有分寸地转移黄金来防范货币贬值，黄金目前被认为是较弱的反法定资产。</b>比特币最近的暂停（其价格仍是年初的两倍）与债券市场的暂停重叠，而债券市场似乎已经超前了。自2月底结束大幅上涨以来，实际10年期国债收益率基本上已经横盘整理了一个多月：</blockquote></p><p> <b>If this is what is motivating people to buy bitcoin, with resurgence in fears of debasement and inflation accounting for its persistent recovery after crashes, the question of exactly how we should value it remains.</b>Joshi looks at the merits of an anti-fiat asset as being tied up with its ability to avoid major losses. Gold can also have big drawdowns, but nothing like the epic losses that bitcoin periodically inflicts on its holders before rallying again. As bitcoin’s declines tend to be three times bigger, risk can be equalized by holding three times as much gold as bitcoin — which implies buying more bitcoin from here:</p><p><blockquote><b>如果这是促使人们购买比特币的原因，而对贬值和通胀的担忧再次抬头是其在崩盘后持续复苏的原因，那么我们到底应该如何评估它的问题仍然存在。</b>乔希认为反菲亚特资产的优点与其避免重大损失的能力有关。黄金也可能出现大幅下跌，但与比特币在再次反弹之前定期给持有者造成的巨大损失不同。由于比特币的跌幅往往是比特币的三倍，因此可以通过持有三倍于比特币的黄金来平衡风险——这意味着从这里购买更多比特币：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2771040ef04af0bbee37892e4443fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Is bitcoin really that direct a substitute for gold?</b>It’s a tough proposition to handle. I am typing this with a very small piece of gold around my ring finger. I am confident that I will never swap my wedding ring for one made of bitcoin. Gold at least has an intrinsic use as the raw material for much-desired jewelry. Bitcoin has nothing so straightforward to fall back on. Official action might easily limit use of the digital asset if it grew big enough to challenge the government’s monopoly of currency issuance.</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币真的是黄金的替代品吗？</b>这是一个很难处理的问题。我用无名指上的一小块金子打字。我相信我永远不会把我的结婚戒指换成比特币的。黄金至少有作为备受追捧的珠宝原材料的内在用途。比特币没有如此直接的依靠。如果数字资产发展到足以挑战政府对货币发行的垄断，官方行动可能会很容易限制其使用。</blockquote></p><p> One final issue is that, as with gold, there is so little to hold on to. Yes, there are some measures that can justify a rising price. Bitcoin has been ingeniously designed so that the supply of new coin will reduce over time, and so that price declines will reduce the incentive to spend money on increasing supply. Network effects can also make the currency more useful — the more applications are developed, and the more easily and swiftly it can be used, the more it becomes a viable currency. But it still provides no yield to compare it to other assets. And its continued susceptibility to massive crashes messes up its use as a means of exchange, while ensuring that it continues to be an unreliable store of value.</p><p><blockquote>最后一个问题是，与黄金一样，可以持有的东西很少。是的，有一些措施可以证明价格上涨是合理的。比特币被巧妙地设计成使得新硬币的供应会随着时间的推移而减少，因此价格下跌会减少花钱增加供应的动机。网络效应还可以使货币变得更有用——开发的应用程序越多，使用起来越容易、越快捷，它就越能成为一种可行的货币。但与其他资产相比，它仍然没有提供收益率。它对大规模崩溃的持续敏感性破坏了它作为交换手段的使用，同时确保它仍然是一种不可靠的价值储存手段。</blockquote></p><p> The technology undergirding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continues to develop. Like the laser, in its early days known as a “solution in search of a problem,” cryptocurrencies and the blockchain could solve all kind of problems for us. This is a reasonable hope, if not something that can be pinned down and valued with discounted cash flow analysis.</p><p><blockquote>支撑比特币和其他加密货币的技术在不断发展。就像激光一样，在早期被称为“寻找问题的解决方案”，加密货币和区块链可以为我们解决各种问题。这是一个合理的希望，即使不能通过贴现现金流分析来确定和评估。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>For now, bitcoin fills a demand for a wider array of alternatives to fiat currencies at a time when many are deeply skeptical of monetary policy, while also promising the kind of exciting growth that tech stocks have done.</b>It’s understandable that there would be wide demand for such an asset. And while that demand is strong, it is aided by that other universal force in markets; fear of missing out. If reflation doesn’t come through on cue, however, it might be as well to brace for another bitcoin bump.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，在许多人对货币政策深表怀疑之际，比特币满足了对更广泛的法定货币替代品的需求，同时也承诺科技股将实现令人兴奋的增长。</b>对这种资产的广泛需求是可以理解的。虽然这种需求很强劲，但它得到了市场中另一种普遍力量的帮助；害怕错过。然而，如果通货再膨胀没有及时实现，那么不妨为比特币的另一次上涨做好准备。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Bitcoin Displacing Gold As An Inflation Hedge?<blockquote>比特币正在取代黄金作为通胀对冲工具吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Bitcoin Displacing Gold As An Inflation Hedge?<blockquote>比特币正在取代黄金作为通胀对冲工具吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-12 18:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Silver and Gold, and Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>白银、黄金和比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> How to explain bitcoin? As I said a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to dismiss the digital currency as a classic investment bubble because — unlike any of the other historical manias which have seen similarly extreme gains in price — it has formed a series of bubbles, which have burst and then reinflated.<b>Bubbles aren’t supposed to do this</b>: They are booms grown so large that they cannot gently deflate and must burst, never to return.</p><p><blockquote>如何解释比特币？正如我几周前所说，很难将数字货币视为典型的投资泡沫，因为与历史上任何其他价格出现类似极端上涨的狂热不同，它已经形成了一系列泡沫，这些泡沫已经破裂，然后再次膨胀。<b>气泡不应该这样做</b>：它们是长得如此之大的繁荣，以至于不能轻轻地放气，必须破裂，一去不复返了。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has many of the symptoms of a speculative mania, led by the sheer excitement it inspires in its believers. But it’s hard to say what the digital asset’s value should be. Like gold, value is in the eye of the beholder. It has no intrinsic value, and while the same is true of banknotes, it has no government standing behind it.</p><p><blockquote>比特币有许多投机狂热的症状，这是由它在信徒中激发的纯粹兴奋所主导的。但很难说数字资产的价值应该是多少。就像黄金一样，价值在于情人眼里出西施。它没有内在价值，虽然纸币也是如此，但它背后没有政府。</blockquote></p><p> Plenty of people are grappling with the same issue, and the value of bitcoin might best be derived from its absence. To see how this works, look at the odd relationship between gold and Treasury bonds, in this chart from Gavekal Research Ltd.<b>Generally, Treasuries beat gold when people aren’t too worried about inflation, while gold wins when there are inflationary concerns. Except at present, both are falling:</b></p><p><blockquote>很多人都在努力解决同样的问题，而比特币的价值可能最好来自于它的缺失。要了解这是如何运作的，请看看Gavekal Research Ltd.的这张图表中黄金和美国国债之间的奇怪关系。<b>一般来说，当人们不太担心通胀时，美国国债会击败黄金，而当存在通胀担忧时，黄金会获胜。除了目前，两者都在下跌：</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8f06f8cd9731b383f9d0181930e6289\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is happening despite widespread belief in a new wave of reflationary growth, and a historic amount of money-printing, normally inflationary, illustrated here by growth in M2:</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们普遍相信新一波的通货再膨胀增长，并且印钞量达到了历史水平，通常是通货膨胀，M2的增长就说明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f6aff63854c5946c003f9782f80a755\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Gold is generally thought of as an inflationary hedge, but if we judge it instead in terms of silver, we see that its price has roughly halved since the Covid panic last year.</b>Gold has grown steadily more expensive relative to silver since the bizarre year of 1980 when prices of both precious metals went bonkers. The last year has seen a spike and then a reversal for the ages:</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金通常被认为是通胀对冲工具，但如果我们用白银来判断，我们会发现自去年新冠疫情恐慌以来，其价格已经大致减半。</b>自1980年这两种贵金属价格疯狂上涨以来，黄金相对于白银的价格稳步上涨。去年出现了峰值，然后又出现了多年的逆转：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90325ba5146c527b0fe6c902382b31c3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What drives the gold price, then?</b>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research Inc. comes up with a different idea. The following chart shows three centuries of the gold/silver ratio. The relationship was stable until confidence in the gold standard eroded and then collapsed after the First World War. During the decades of the soft gold standard of the postwar Bretton Woods agreement the ratio returned to its old level, only to head back to the stratosphere once Bretton Woods broke down 50 years ago:</p><p><blockquote><b>那么是什么推动了金价呢？</b>BCA研究公司的达瓦尔·乔希提出了一个不同的想法。下图显示了三个世纪以来的黄金/白银比率。这种关系一直很稳定，直到人们对金本位制的信心受到侵蚀，然后在第一次世界大战后崩溃。在战后布雷顿森林协定的软金本位制的几十年里，这一比率回到了以前的水平，但在50年前布雷顿森林协定崩溃后，这一比率又回到了平流层：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77d3e6c10076e2672025d9f70cf13fa0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Joshi contends that this shows demand for gold over silver is driven by its perception as a superior “anti-fiat” asset. If people are worried about the long-term buying power of government-issued currencies, they will be prepared to pay more for gold, with its perceived role as a store of value. How then do we explain gold’s sudden fall in silver terms over the last year?</p><p><blockquote>乔希认为，这表明对黄金相对于白银的需求是由其被视为优越的“反法定”资产所驱动的。如果人们担心政府发行货币的长期购买力，他们将准备为黄金支付更多费用，因为黄金被认为是一种价值储存手段。那么，我们如何解释去年黄金相对于白银的突然下跌呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Joshi argument is that bitcoin has risen as an alternative anti-fiat asset. It has been popular because of the libertarian anti-government ideas that have accompanied the digital currency since its inception. Bitcoin’s increase in scale to become better known and much easier to obtain now makes it a much more viable competitor for the shiny metal.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乔希的论点是，比特币已经成为另类反菲亚特资产。它之所以受欢迎，是因为自数字货币诞生以来就伴随着自由主义反政府思想。比特币的规模不断扩大，变得更加知名，也更容易获得，这使它成为这种闪亮金属更可行的竞争对手。</b></blockquote></p><p> There is circumstantial evidence that some money has flowed directly from gold into bitcoin. The following chart is from Charles Morris of ByteTree Asset Management Ltd. and shows flows into investment funds holding both assets since last May:</p><p><blockquote>有间接证据表明，一些资金直接从黄金流入比特币。下图来自ByteTree Asset Management Ltd.的Charles Morris，显示了自去年5月以来流入持有这两种资产的投资基金的资金情况：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecdeb7acff0aeb1150b22b1daed5e655\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Not all of the money leaving gold has gone into bitcoin, but quite a big chunk has.</b>Institutions appear to be making a decision to allocate some money to bitcoin as a hedge against a fiat collapse. (Another important destination appears to be Chinese bonds.) Bitcoin’s strength in the last few months has come despite a distinct drop-off in Google searches for the term, which might be taken as a proxy for retail interest, or the kind of excitement that typically accompanies a bubble:</p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有离开黄金的资金都流入了比特币，但相当大一部分流入了。</b>机构似乎正在决定向比特币分配一些资金，以对冲法定货币崩溃。（另一个重要目的地似乎是中国债券。）尽管谷歌对该词的搜索量明显下降，但比特币在过去几个月中的强势还是出现了，这可能被视为散户兴趣或兴奋的代表。通常伴随着泡沫：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Bitcoin’s performance over the last year is directly aligned with movements in bond yields.</b>When yields rise, so does bitcoin. This implies that the digital currency benefits directly from the “reflation trade” — or the belief that inflation is coming. And to be clear, before anyone accuses me of chart crime, this one has two scales. Bitcoin is prone to much more titanic moves than Treasury bonds. The point is that they both move in the same direction at the same time:</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币去年的表现与债券收益率的变动直接相关。</b>当收益率上升时，比特币也会上升。这意味着数字货币直接受益于“通货再膨胀交易”——或者说相信通货膨胀即将到来。需要明确的是，在任何人指控我图表犯罪之前，这个有两个尺度。与国债相比，比特币容易出现更大的波动。关键是它们同时向同一个方向移动：</blockquote></p><p> A rather more scientific analysis by the British research firm Quant Insight Ltd. shows bitcoin’s key sensitivity is to inflation breakevens.<b>The same is true of gold. The difference, at present, is that bitcoin is positively correlated with breakevens, gaining when fears about inflation rise, while gold is negatively correlated.</b></p><p><blockquote>英国研究公司Quant Insight Ltd.进行的一项更为科学的分析显示，比特币的关键敏感性是通胀盈亏平衡。<b>黄金也是如此。目前的不同之处在于，比特币与盈亏平衡正相关，当对通胀的担忧加剧时就会上涨，而黄金则呈负相关。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4914e4b3acf9a51a825d944e7be4c89\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Adding another layer, Morris of ByteTree suggests that bitcoin is behaving like a growth stock, and gold has never done that:</p><p><blockquote>ByteTree的Morris又增加了一层，他表示比特币的表现就像一只成长型股票，而黄金从未这样做过：</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin seems to have it all. It is one of the few assets that seems to benefit from a rising bond yield – something we reserve for true growth stocks and those cyclicals enjoying recovery. Conversely, this is normally detrimental to traditional low-growth safe assets such as gold, defensive yield stocks and bonds. Unlike defensive stocks and bonds, Bitcoin and gold are both inflation-sensitive, but gold is happiest when the world faces a downward spiral. In contrast, Bitcoin prefers a stronger economy, when the yield is rising. This is where we are today. <b>The current drive in bitcoin therefore looks like a bid to protect against currency debasement, by means of a measured transfer from gold, which is deemed the weaker anti-fiat asset for the moment.</b>Bitcoin’s recent pause (at a level where its price is still double what it was at the start the year) overlaps with a pause in the bond market, which had seemed to get ahead of itself. Real 10-year yields have essentially moved sideways for more than a month since their big rise ended in late February:</p><p><blockquote>比特币似乎拥有一切。它是少数似乎受益于债券收益率上升的资产之一——这是我们为真正的成长型股票和那些正在复苏的周期性股票保留的资产。相反，这通常不利于传统的低增长安全资产，如黄金、防御性收益股票和债券。与防御性股票和债券不同，比特币和黄金都对通胀敏感，但当世界面临螺旋式下降时，黄金是最高兴的。相比之下，当收益率上升时，比特币更喜欢经济更强劲。这就是我们今天的处境。<b>因此，比特币目前的举措看起来像是通过有分寸地转移黄金来防范货币贬值，黄金目前被认为是较弱的反法定资产。</b>比特币最近的暂停（其价格仍是年初的两倍）与债券市场的暂停重叠，而债券市场似乎已经超前了。自2月底结束大幅上涨以来，实际10年期国债收益率基本上已经横盘整理了一个多月：</blockquote></p><p> <b>If this is what is motivating people to buy bitcoin, with resurgence in fears of debasement and inflation accounting for its persistent recovery after crashes, the question of exactly how we should value it remains.</b>Joshi looks at the merits of an anti-fiat asset as being tied up with its ability to avoid major losses. Gold can also have big drawdowns, but nothing like the epic losses that bitcoin periodically inflicts on its holders before rallying again. As bitcoin’s declines tend to be three times bigger, risk can be equalized by holding three times as much gold as bitcoin — which implies buying more bitcoin from here:</p><p><blockquote><b>如果这是促使人们购买比特币的原因，而对贬值和通胀的担忧再次抬头是其在崩盘后持续复苏的原因，那么我们到底应该如何评估它的问题仍然存在。</b>乔希认为反菲亚特资产的优点与其避免重大损失的能力有关。黄金也可能出现大幅下跌，但与比特币在再次反弹之前定期给持有者造成的巨大损失不同。由于比特币的跌幅往往是比特币的三倍，因此可以通过持有三倍于比特币的黄金来平衡风险——这意味着从这里购买更多比特币：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2771040ef04af0bbee37892e4443fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Is bitcoin really that direct a substitute for gold?</b>It’s a tough proposition to handle. I am typing this with a very small piece of gold around my ring finger. I am confident that I will never swap my wedding ring for one made of bitcoin. Gold at least has an intrinsic use as the raw material for much-desired jewelry. Bitcoin has nothing so straightforward to fall back on. Official action might easily limit use of the digital asset if it grew big enough to challenge the government’s monopoly of currency issuance.</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币真的是黄金的替代品吗？</b>这是一个很难处理的问题。我用无名指上的一小块金子打字。我相信我永远不会把我的结婚戒指换成比特币的。黄金至少有作为备受追捧的珠宝原材料的内在用途。比特币没有如此直接的依靠。如果数字资产发展到足以挑战政府对货币发行的垄断，官方行动可能会很容易限制其使用。</blockquote></p><p> One final issue is that, as with gold, there is so little to hold on to. Yes, there are some measures that can justify a rising price. Bitcoin has been ingeniously designed so that the supply of new coin will reduce over time, and so that price declines will reduce the incentive to spend money on increasing supply. Network effects can also make the currency more useful — the more applications are developed, and the more easily and swiftly it can be used, the more it becomes a viable currency. But it still provides no yield to compare it to other assets. And its continued susceptibility to massive crashes messes up its use as a means of exchange, while ensuring that it continues to be an unreliable store of value.</p><p><blockquote>最后一个问题是，与黄金一样，可以持有的东西很少。是的，有一些措施可以证明价格上涨是合理的。比特币被巧妙地设计成使得新硬币的供应会随着时间的推移而减少，因此价格下跌会减少花钱增加供应的动机。网络效应还可以使货币变得更有用——开发的应用程序越多，使用起来越容易、越快捷，它就越能成为一种可行的货币。但与其他资产相比，它仍然没有提供收益率。它对大规模崩溃的持续敏感性破坏了它作为交换手段的使用，同时确保它仍然是一种不可靠的价值储存手段。</blockquote></p><p> The technology undergirding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continues to develop. Like the laser, in its early days known as a “solution in search of a problem,” cryptocurrencies and the blockchain could solve all kind of problems for us. This is a reasonable hope, if not something that can be pinned down and valued with discounted cash flow analysis.</p><p><blockquote>支撑比特币和其他加密货币的技术在不断发展。就像激光一样，在早期被称为“寻找问题的解决方案”，加密货币和区块链可以为我们解决各种问题。这是一个合理的希望，即使不能通过贴现现金流分析来确定和评估。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>For now, bitcoin fills a demand for a wider array of alternatives to fiat currencies at a time when many are deeply skeptical of monetary policy, while also promising the kind of exciting growth that tech stocks have done.</b>It’s understandable that there would be wide demand for such an asset. And while that demand is strong, it is aided by that other universal force in markets; fear of missing out. If reflation doesn’t come through on cue, however, it might be as well to brace for another bitcoin bump.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，在许多人对货币政策深表怀疑之际，比特币满足了对更广泛的法定货币替代品的需求，同时也承诺科技股将实现令人兴奋的增长。</b>对这种资产的广泛需求是可以理解的。虽然这种需求很强劲，但它得到了市场中另一种普遍力量的帮助；害怕错过。然而，如果通货再膨胀没有及时实现，那么不妨为比特币的另一次上涨做好准备。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-displacing-gold-inflation-hedge\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-displacing-gold-inflation-hedge","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121930993","content_text":"Silver and Gold, and Bitcoin\nHow to explain bitcoin? As I said a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to dismiss the digital currency as a classic investment bubble because — unlike any of the other historical manias which have seen similarly extreme gains in price — it has formed a series of bubbles, which have burst and then reinflated.Bubbles aren’t supposed to do this: They are booms grown so large that they cannot gently deflate and must burst, never to return.\nBitcoin has many of the symptoms of a speculative mania, led by the sheer excitement it inspires in its believers. But it’s hard to say what the digital asset’s value should be. Like gold, value is in the eye of the beholder. It has no intrinsic value, and while the same is true of banknotes, it has no government standing behind it.\nPlenty of people are grappling with the same issue, and the value of bitcoin might best be derived from its absence. To see how this works, look at the odd relationship between gold and Treasury bonds, in this chart from Gavekal Research Ltd.Generally, Treasuries beat gold when people aren’t too worried about inflation, while gold wins when there are inflationary concerns. Except at present, both are falling:\nThis is happening despite widespread belief in a new wave of reflationary growth, and a historic amount of money-printing, normally inflationary, illustrated here by growth in M2:\nGold is generally thought of as an inflationary hedge, but if we judge it instead in terms of silver, we see that its price has roughly halved since the Covid panic last year.Gold has grown steadily more expensive relative to silver since the bizarre year of 1980 when prices of both precious metals went bonkers. The last year has seen a spike and then a reversal for the ages:\nWhat drives the gold price, then?Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research Inc. comes up with a different idea. The following chart shows three centuries of the gold/silver ratio. The relationship was stable until confidence in the gold standard eroded and then collapsed after the First World War. During the decades of the soft gold standard of the postwar Bretton Woods agreement the ratio returned to its old level, only to head back to the stratosphere once Bretton Woods broke down 50 years ago:\nJoshi contends that this shows demand for gold over silver is driven by its perception as a superior “anti-fiat” asset. If people are worried about the long-term buying power of government-issued currencies, they will be prepared to pay more for gold, with its perceived role as a store of value. How then do we explain gold’s sudden fall in silver terms over the last year?\nThe Joshi argument is that bitcoin has risen as an alternative anti-fiat asset. It has been popular because of the libertarian anti-government ideas that have accompanied the digital currency since its inception. Bitcoin’s increase in scale to become better known and much easier to obtain now makes it a much more viable competitor for the shiny metal.\nThere is circumstantial evidence that some money has flowed directly from gold into bitcoin. The following chart is from Charles Morris of ByteTree Asset Management Ltd. and shows flows into investment funds holding both assets since last May:\nNot all of the money leaving gold has gone into bitcoin, but quite a big chunk has.Institutions appear to be making a decision to allocate some money to bitcoin as a hedge against a fiat collapse. (Another important destination appears to be Chinese bonds.) Bitcoin’s strength in the last few months has come despite a distinct drop-off in Google searches for the term, which might be taken as a proxy for retail interest, or the kind of excitement that typically accompanies a bubble:\nBitcoin’s performance over the last year is directly aligned with movements in bond yields.When yields rise, so does bitcoin. This implies that the digital currency benefits directly from the “reflation trade” — or the belief that inflation is coming. And to be clear, before anyone accuses me of chart crime, this one has two scales. Bitcoin is prone to much more titanic moves than Treasury bonds. The point is that they both move in the same direction at the same time:\nA rather more scientific analysis by the British research firm Quant Insight Ltd. shows bitcoin’s key sensitivity is to inflation breakevens.The same is true of gold. The difference, at present, is that bitcoin is positively correlated with breakevens, gaining when fears about inflation rise, while gold is negatively correlated.\n\nAdding another layer, Morris of ByteTree suggests that bitcoin is behaving like a growth stock, and gold has never done that:\n\n Bitcoin seems to have it all. It is one of the few assets that seems to benefit from a rising bond yield – something we reserve for true growth stocks and those cyclicals enjoying recovery. Conversely, this is normally detrimental to traditional low-growth safe assets such as gold, defensive yield stocks and bonds. Unlike defensive stocks and bonds, Bitcoin and gold are both inflation-sensitive, but gold is happiest when the world faces a downward spiral. In contrast, Bitcoin prefers a stronger economy, when the yield is rising. This is where we are today.\n\nThe current drive in bitcoin therefore looks like a bid to protect against currency debasement, by means of a measured transfer from gold, which is deemed the weaker anti-fiat asset for the moment.Bitcoin’s recent pause (at a level where its price is still double what it was at the start the year) overlaps with a pause in the bond market, which had seemed to get ahead of itself. Real 10-year yields have essentially moved sideways for more than a month since their big rise ended in late February:\nIf this is what is motivating people to buy bitcoin, with resurgence in fears of debasement and inflation accounting for its persistent recovery after crashes, the question of exactly how we should value it remains.Joshi looks at the merits of an anti-fiat asset as being tied up with its ability to avoid major losses. Gold can also have big drawdowns, but nothing like the epic losses that bitcoin periodically inflicts on its holders before rallying again. As bitcoin’s declines tend to be three times bigger, risk can be equalized by holding three times as much gold as bitcoin — which implies buying more bitcoin from here:\n\nIs bitcoin really that direct a substitute for gold?It’s a tough proposition to handle. I am typing this with a very small piece of gold around my ring finger. I am confident that I will never swap my wedding ring for one made of bitcoin. Gold at least has an intrinsic use as the raw material for much-desired jewelry. Bitcoin has nothing so straightforward to fall back on. Official action might easily limit use of the digital asset if it grew big enough to challenge the government’s monopoly of currency issuance.\nOne final issue is that, as with gold, there is so little to hold on to. Yes, there are some measures that can justify a rising price. Bitcoin has been ingeniously designed so that the supply of new coin will reduce over time, and so that price declines will reduce the incentive to spend money on increasing supply. Network effects can also make the currency more useful — the more applications are developed, and the more easily and swiftly it can be used, the more it becomes a viable currency. But it still provides no yield to compare it to other assets. And its continued susceptibility to massive crashes messes up its use as a means of exchange, while ensuring that it continues to be an unreliable store of value.\nThe technology undergirding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continues to develop. Like the laser, in its early days known as a “solution in search of a problem,” cryptocurrencies and the blockchain could solve all kind of problems for us. This is a reasonable hope, if not something that can be pinned down and valued with discounted cash flow analysis.\nFor now, bitcoin fills a demand for a wider array of alternatives to fiat currencies at a time when many are deeply skeptical of monetary policy, while also promising the kind of exciting growth that tech stocks have done.It’s understandable that there would be wide demand for such an asset. And while that demand is strong, it is aided by that other universal force in markets; fear of missing out. If reflation doesn’t come through on cue, however, it might be as well to brace for another bitcoin bump.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/342249862"}
精彩评论