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2021-04-06

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Uneven Gains in Job Market Give Investors a Goldilocks Moment. Can It Last?<blockquote>就业市场的不均衡增长给了投资者一个金发姑娘的时刻。能持久吗？</blockquote>

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Can It Last?<blockquote>就业市场的不均衡增长给了投资者一个金发姑娘的时刻。能持久吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165241320","media":"Barron's","summary":"The March jobs report was a knockout, at once reflecting strong rehiring while offering some still-w","content":"The March jobs report was a knockout, at once reflecting strong rehiring while offering some still-weak details that do little to change the Federal Reserve’s stance on the recovery and monetary policy.<blockquote>3月份的就业报告令人震惊，它立即反映了强劲的再招聘，同时提供了一些仍然疲软的细节，这些细节几乎没有改变美联储对复苏和货币政策的立场。</blockquote> At least for now. The big question for investors is how long this type of Goldilocks job market lasts.<blockquote>至少现在是这样。对投资者来说，最大的问题是这种金发姑娘就业市场会持续多久。</blockquote> On the one hand, companies increased payrolls by 916,000 in March—with an additional 156,000 jobs added in January and February via upward revisions to previously reported numbers. That pace of hiring was the best since August, much better than economists had anticipated, and it’s only expected to quicken as vaccine distribution boosts business and consumer confidence in the months ahead.<blockquote>一方面，企业3月份增加了916,000个就业岗位，1月和2月通过上调之前报告的数字又增加了156,000个就业岗位。这一招聘速度是自8月份以来最好的，远好于经济学家的预期，而且随着疫苗分发在未来几个月提振企业和消费者信心，预计招聘速度只会加快。</blockquote> “Better—much better—numbers are coming in Q2,” says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. He predicts payrolls will rise by “well over” 1 million in April, and then by 2 million-plus in May and June.<blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示：“第二季度将出现更好、更好的数据。”他预测4月份就业人数将增加“远远超过”100万，然后在5月和6月增加200万以上。</blockquote> That’s not to say there isn’t still a ways to go before the labor market looks anything like it did before the pandemic struck a year earlier. Even after the strong gains reported Friday, the level of total nonfarm payrolls is still an enormous 8.4 million below the pre-pandemic level of February 2020, notes Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR. While hiring was broad-based in March, the hardest-hit areas, like entertainment, travel and leisure, still have considerable ground to recover.<blockquote>这并不是说，在劳动力市场看起来像一年前大流行爆发之前一样之前，还有很长的路要走。MFR首席美国经济学家乔什·夏皮罗(Josh Shapiro)指出，即使在周五公布强劲增长之后，非农就业总人数仍比2020年2月大流行前的水平低840万人。虽然三月份招聘基础广泛，但娱乐、旅游和休闲等受灾最严重的领域仍有相当大的复苏空间。</blockquote> “Fed Chair Powell has made it very clear that, barring an unexpectedly sharp and sustained jump in inflation, monetary policy will remain extraordinarily accommodative until the lion’s share of these jobs are recovered,” Shapiro says.<blockquote>夏皮罗表示：“美联储主席鲍威尔已经明确表示，除非通胀意外大幅持续上升，否则货币政策将保持异常宽松，直到大部分就业岗位恢复。”</blockquote> The Fed has increasingly started to focus on alternative labor-market measures that support low-for-longer interest-rate policy. None of those metrics threw a red flag in either direction on Friday.<blockquote>美联储越来越多地开始关注支持长期低利率政策的替代劳动力市场措施。周五，这些指标都没有向任何方向发出危险信号。</blockquote> Labor force participation improved just a tad, still sitting at 61.5%, while the employment-to-population ratio for prime age workers (ages 25-54) rose modestly to 76.8% from 76.5% in March. Those small improvements show progress without giving investors new reason to question the Fed’s stance in the immediate term. A worsening in long-term unemployment (those out of work for more than 27 weeks rose to 43.4% from 41.5%) helps show how deep some of the pandemic damage really is.<blockquote>劳动力参与率仅略有改善，仍为61.5%，而黄金年龄工人（25-54岁）的就业与人口比率从3月份的76.5%小幅上升至76.8%。这些微小的改善表明了进展，但并没有给投资者新的理由质疑美联储的近期立场。长期失业率的恶化（失业超过27周的失业率从41.5%上升至43.4%）有助于显示疫情造成的一些损害到底有多严重。</blockquote> As for any sharp and sustained jump in inflation, the price indicators in Friday’s report were benign. Average hourly earnings fell 0.1% in March from a month earlier (economists predicted a 0.2% rate of increase), pushing the year-over-year increase down to 4.2% from a previous 5.3%. The year-over-year rates have been running higher than normal because of composition skew—the pandemic cost more low-wage workers their jobs, thus pushing them out of the calculation—and the March report showed employers aren’t yet having to raise pay to bring back workers.<blockquote>至于通胀的任何急剧和持续跃升，周五报告中的价格指标是良性的。3月份平均时薪环比下降0.1%（经济学家预测增长率为0.2%），同比增幅从之前的5.3%降至4.2%。由于构成偏差，同比率一直高于正常水平——疫情导致更多低工资工人失业，从而将他们排除在计算之外——而三月份的报告显示，雇主尚未不得不提高工资来带回工人。</blockquote> Some other pieces of economic data, however, hint a tightening-if-still-troubled labor market may prompt employers to raise pay sooner than later. The National Federation of Independent Business said last week that the share of small businesses reporting unfilled job openings rose to a record high in March. At the same time, the Institute for Supply Management said respondents continued to note “significant difficulties in attracting and retaining labor at their companies’ and suppliers’ facilities.”<blockquote>然而，其他一些经济数据暗示，劳动力市场收紧（如果仍然陷入困境）可能会促使雇主迟早加薪。全国独立企业联合会上周表示，3月份报告职位空缺的小企业比例升至历史新高。与此同时，供应管理协会表示，受访者继续注意到“在公司和供应商工厂吸引和留住劳动力方面存在重大困难”。</blockquote> Taking those clues alongside economists’ expectations for robust hiring in the coming months, investors would be well-served to prepare for inflation that may be far less transitory than the Fed says it will be—and for policy tightening that could therefore come sooner than telegraphed.<blockquote>将这些线索以及经济学家对未来几个月强劲招聘的预期结合起来，投资者将为通胀做好准备，通胀可能远没有美联储所说的那么短暂，也为政策收紧做好准备，因此政策收紧可能会比预期更早到来。</blockquote> Payrolls now averaging 500,000 or more per month leave the Fed “clearly on track to give guidance that ‘substantial further progress’ may be reached in the relative near-term,” says Citi economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark. They say that will lead the Fed to begin tapering asset purchases toward the end of 2021, with the first rate increase in December 2022. The Fed has continued to suggest it won’t lift rates before 2024, though traders are increasingly skeptical.<blockquote>花旗经济学家安德鲁·霍伦霍斯特(Andrew Hollenhorst)和维罗妮卡·克拉克(Veronica Clark)表示，目前平均每月就业人数为50万或更多，这使得美联储“显然有望提供指导，即在相对近期内可能取得‘实质性的进一步进展’”。他们表示，这将导致美联储在2021年底开始缩减资产购买规模，并在2022年12月首次加息。美联储继续暗示在2024年之前不会加息，尽管交易员越来越持怀疑态度。</blockquote> Key to any change in the Fed’s policy outlook are wages. The cost of labor is typically a company’s biggest expense, and rising wages are considered stickier than things like the soaring commodity prices firms are facing amid supply-chain disruptions and surging demand.<blockquote>美联储政策前景发生任何变化的关键是工资。劳动力成本通常是公司最大的支出，工资上涨被认为比企业在供应链中断和需求激增的情况下面临的大宗商品价格飙升等问题更具粘性。</blockquote> Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics says the potential for wage increases to accelerate is much greater than in the recovery that followed the last recession. “Wages were the dog that didn’t bark in the last cycle, but it’s not at all clear they will be so well-behaved this time,” he says.<blockquote>万神殿宏观经济公司的谢泼德森表示，工资加速上涨的潜力比上次衰退后的复苏时期要大得多。“工资是上一个周期中不叫的狗，但根本不清楚他们这次会不会表现得这么好，”他说。</blockquote> The Fed not only wants to see higher wages but also has expressed a higher-than-typical tolerance for inflation that runs hotter than the traditional 2% target. Policy makers were confounded by stubborn wage growth alongside the boom of the past cycle, a development that has underpinned the argument that rates can stay very low even as the unemployment rate closes in on what’s considered full employment.<blockquote>美联储不仅希望看到更高的工资，而且还表达了对高于传统2%目标的通胀高于典型水平的容忍度。政策制定者对工资的顽固增长以及上一个周期的繁荣感到困惑，这一发展支撑了这样一种论点，即即使失业率接近充分就业，利率也可以保持在很低的水平。</blockquote> But, as Shepherdson puts it, the job market now looks nothing like the wasteland after the crash of 2008. The ongoing recovery powered by a recovering job market should give investors an increased sense of optimism. So should it give reason to position for faster-for-longer inflation—even if the Fed says otherwise.<blockquote>但是，正如谢泼德森所说，现在的就业市场看起来一点也不像2008年崩盘后的荒地。就业市场复苏推动的持续复苏应该会让投资者更加乐观。因此，即使美联储另有说法，它也应该给出理由支持长期更快的通胀。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uneven Gains in Job Market Give Investors a Goldilocks Moment. Can It Last?<blockquote>就业市场的不均衡增长给了投资者一个金发姑娘的时刻。能持久吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUneven Gains in Job Market Give Investors a Goldilocks Moment. Can It Last?<blockquote>就业市场的不均衡增长给了投资者一个金发姑娘的时刻。能持久吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-06 12:09\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe March jobs report was a knockout, at once reflecting strong rehiring while offering some still-weak details that do little to change the Federal Reserve’s stance on the recovery and monetary policy.<blockquote>3月份的就业报告令人震惊，它立即反映了强劲的再招聘，同时提供了一些仍然疲软的细节，这些细节几乎没有改变美联储对复苏和货币政策的立场。</blockquote> At least for now. The big question for investors is how long this type of Goldilocks job market lasts.<blockquote>至少现在是这样。对投资者来说，最大的问题是这种金发姑娘就业市场会持续多久。</blockquote> On the one hand, companies increased payrolls by 916,000 in March—with an additional 156,000 jobs added in January and February via upward revisions to previously reported numbers. That pace of hiring was the best since August, much better than economists had anticipated, and it’s only expected to quicken as vaccine distribution boosts business and consumer confidence in the months ahead.<blockquote>一方面，企业3月份增加了916,000个就业岗位，1月和2月通过上调之前报告的数字又增加了156,000个就业岗位。这一招聘速度是自8月份以来最好的，远好于经济学家的预期，而且随着疫苗分发在未来几个月提振企业和消费者信心，预计招聘速度只会加快。</blockquote> “Better—much better—numbers are coming in Q2,” says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. He predicts payrolls will rise by “well over” 1 million in April, and then by 2 million-plus in May and June.<blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示：“第二季度将出现更好、更好的数据。”他预测4月份就业人数将增加“远远超过”100万，然后在5月和6月增加200万以上。</blockquote> That’s not to say there isn’t still a ways to go before the labor market looks anything like it did before the pandemic struck a year earlier. Even after the strong gains reported Friday, the level of total nonfarm payrolls is still an enormous 8.4 million below the pre-pandemic level of February 2020, notes Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR. While hiring was broad-based in March, the hardest-hit areas, like entertainment, travel and leisure, still have considerable ground to recover.<blockquote>这并不是说，在劳动力市场看起来像一年前大流行爆发之前一样之前，还有很长的路要走。MFR首席美国经济学家乔什·夏皮罗(Josh Shapiro)指出，即使在周五公布强劲增长之后，非农就业总人数仍比2020年2月大流行前的水平低840万人。虽然三月份招聘基础广泛，但娱乐、旅游和休闲等受灾最严重的领域仍有相当大的复苏空间。</blockquote> “Fed Chair Powell has made it very clear that, barring an unexpectedly sharp and sustained jump in inflation, monetary policy will remain extraordinarily accommodative until the lion’s share of these jobs are recovered,” Shapiro says.<blockquote>夏皮罗表示：“美联储主席鲍威尔已经明确表示，除非通胀意外大幅持续上升，否则货币政策将保持异常宽松，直到大部分就业岗位恢复。”</blockquote> The Fed has increasingly started to focus on alternative labor-market measures that support low-for-longer interest-rate policy. None of those metrics threw a red flag in either direction on Friday.<blockquote>美联储越来越多地开始关注支持长期低利率政策的替代劳动力市场措施。周五，这些指标都没有向任何方向发出危险信号。</blockquote> Labor force participation improved just a tad, still sitting at 61.5%, while the employment-to-population ratio for prime age workers (ages 25-54) rose modestly to 76.8% from 76.5% in March. Those small improvements show progress without giving investors new reason to question the Fed’s stance in the immediate term. A worsening in long-term unemployment (those out of work for more than 27 weeks rose to 43.4% from 41.5%) helps show how deep some of the pandemic damage really is.<blockquote>劳动力参与率仅略有改善，仍为61.5%，而黄金年龄工人（25-54岁）的就业与人口比率从3月份的76.5%小幅上升至76.8%。这些微小的改善表明了进展，但并没有给投资者新的理由质疑美联储的近期立场。长期失业率的恶化（失业超过27周的失业率从41.5%上升至43.4%）有助于显示疫情造成的一些损害到底有多严重。</blockquote> As for any sharp and sustained jump in inflation, the price indicators in Friday’s report were benign. Average hourly earnings fell 0.1% in March from a month earlier (economists predicted a 0.2% rate of increase), pushing the year-over-year increase down to 4.2% from a previous 5.3%. The year-over-year rates have been running higher than normal because of composition skew—the pandemic cost more low-wage workers their jobs, thus pushing them out of the calculation—and the March report showed employers aren’t yet having to raise pay to bring back workers.<blockquote>至于通胀的任何急剧和持续跃升，周五报告中的价格指标是良性的。3月份平均时薪环比下降0.1%（经济学家预测增长率为0.2%），同比增幅从之前的5.3%降至4.2%。由于构成偏差，同比率一直高于正常水平——疫情导致更多低工资工人失业，从而将他们排除在计算之外——而三月份的报告显示，雇主尚未不得不提高工资来带回工人。</blockquote> Some other pieces of economic data, however, hint a tightening-if-still-troubled labor market may prompt employers to raise pay sooner than later. The National Federation of Independent Business said last week that the share of small businesses reporting unfilled job openings rose to a record high in March. At the same time, the Institute for Supply Management said respondents continued to note “significant difficulties in attracting and retaining labor at their companies’ and suppliers’ facilities.”<blockquote>然而，其他一些经济数据暗示，劳动力市场收紧（如果仍然陷入困境）可能会促使雇主迟早加薪。全国独立企业联合会上周表示，3月份报告职位空缺的小企业比例升至历史新高。与此同时，供应管理协会表示，受访者继续注意到“在公司和供应商工厂吸引和留住劳动力方面存在重大困难”。</blockquote> Taking those clues alongside economists’ expectations for robust hiring in the coming months, investors would be well-served to prepare for inflation that may be far less transitory than the Fed says it will be—and for policy tightening that could therefore come sooner than telegraphed.<blockquote>将这些线索以及经济学家对未来几个月强劲招聘的预期结合起来，投资者将为通胀做好准备，通胀可能远没有美联储所说的那么短暂，也为政策收紧做好准备，因此政策收紧可能会比预期更早到来。</blockquote> Payrolls now averaging 500,000 or more per month leave the Fed “clearly on track to give guidance that ‘substantial further progress’ may be reached in the relative near-term,” says Citi economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark. They say that will lead the Fed to begin tapering asset purchases toward the end of 2021, with the first rate increase in December 2022. The Fed has continued to suggest it won’t lift rates before 2024, though traders are increasingly skeptical.<blockquote>花旗经济学家安德鲁·霍伦霍斯特(Andrew Hollenhorst)和维罗妮卡·克拉克(Veronica Clark)表示，目前平均每月就业人数为50万或更多，这使得美联储“显然有望提供指导，即在相对近期内可能取得‘实质性的进一步进展’”。他们表示，这将导致美联储在2021年底开始缩减资产购买规模，并在2022年12月首次加息。美联储继续暗示在2024年之前不会加息，尽管交易员越来越持怀疑态度。</blockquote> Key to any change in the Fed’s policy outlook are wages. The cost of labor is typically a company’s biggest expense, and rising wages are considered stickier than things like the soaring commodity prices firms are facing amid supply-chain disruptions and surging demand.<blockquote>美联储政策前景发生任何变化的关键是工资。劳动力成本通常是公司最大的支出，工资上涨被认为比企业在供应链中断和需求激增的情况下面临的大宗商品价格飙升等问题更具粘性。</blockquote> Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics says the potential for wage increases to accelerate is much greater than in the recovery that followed the last recession. “Wages were the dog that didn’t bark in the last cycle, but it’s not at all clear they will be so well-behaved this time,” he says.<blockquote>万神殿宏观经济公司的谢泼德森表示，工资加速上涨的潜力比上次衰退后的复苏时期要大得多。“工资是上一个周期中不叫的狗，但根本不清楚他们这次会不会表现得这么好，”他说。</blockquote> The Fed not only wants to see higher wages but also has expressed a higher-than-typical tolerance for inflation that runs hotter than the traditional 2% target. Policy makers were confounded by stubborn wage growth alongside the boom of the past cycle, a development that has underpinned the argument that rates can stay very low even as the unemployment rate closes in on what’s considered full employment.<blockquote>美联储不仅希望看到更高的工资，而且还表达了对高于传统2%目标的通胀高于典型水平的容忍度。政策制定者对工资的顽固增长以及上一个周期的繁荣感到困惑，这一发展支撑了这样一种论点，即即使失业率接近充分就业，利率也可以保持在很低的水平。</blockquote> But, as Shepherdson puts it, the job market now looks nothing like the wasteland after the crash of 2008. The ongoing recovery powered by a recovering job market should give investors an increased sense of optimism. So should it give reason to position for faster-for-longer inflation—even if the Fed says otherwise.<blockquote>但是，正如谢泼德森所说，现在的就业市场看起来一点也不像2008年崩盘后的荒地。就业市场复苏推动的持续复苏应该会让投资者更加乐观。因此，即使美联储另有说法，它也应该给出理由支持长期更快的通胀。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uneven-gains-in-job-market-give-investors-a-goldilocks-moment-can-it-last-51617383284?mod=hp_columnists\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uneven-gains-in-job-market-give-investors-a-goldilocks-moment-can-it-last-51617383284?mod=hp_columnists","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165241320","content_text":"The March jobs report was a knockout, at once reflecting strong rehiring while offering some still-weak details that do little to change the Federal Reserve’s stance on the recovery and monetary policy.\nAt least for now. The big question for investors is how long this type of Goldilocks job market lasts.\nOn the one hand, companies increased payrolls by 916,000 in March—with an additional 156,000 jobs added in January and February via upward revisions to previously reported numbers. That pace of hiring was the best since August, much better than economists had anticipated, and it’s only expected to quicken as vaccine distribution boosts business and consumer confidence in the months ahead.\n“Better—much better—numbers are coming in Q2,” says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. He predicts payrolls will rise by “well over” 1 million in April, and then by 2 million-plus in May and June.\nThat’s not to say there isn’t still a ways to go before the labor market looks anything like it did before the pandemic struck a year earlier. Even after the strong gains reported Friday, the level of total nonfarm payrolls is still an enormous 8.4 million below the pre-pandemic level of February 2020, notes Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR. While hiring was broad-based in March, the hardest-hit areas, like entertainment, travel and leisure, still have considerable ground to recover.\n“Fed Chair Powell has made it very clear that, barring an unexpectedly sharp and sustained jump in inflation, monetary policy will remain extraordinarily accommodative until the lion’s share of these jobs are recovered,” Shapiro says.\nThe Fed has increasingly started to focus on alternative labor-market measures that support low-for-longer interest-rate policy. None of those metrics threw a red flag in either direction on Friday.\nLabor force participation improved just a tad, still sitting at 61.5%, while the employment-to-population ratio for prime age workers (ages 25-54) rose modestly to 76.8% from 76.5% in March. Those small improvements show progress without giving investors new reason to question the Fed’s stance in the immediate term. A worsening in long-term unemployment (those out of work for more than 27 weeks rose to 43.4% from 41.5%) helps show how deep some of the pandemic damage really is.\nAs for any sharp and sustained jump in inflation, the price indicators in Friday’s report were benign. Average hourly earnings fell 0.1% in March from a month earlier (economists predicted a 0.2% rate of increase), pushing the year-over-year increase down to 4.2% from a previous 5.3%. The year-over-year rates have been running higher than normal because of composition skew—the pandemic cost more low-wage workers their jobs, thus pushing them out of the calculation—and the March report showed employers aren’t yet having to raise pay to bring back workers.\nSome other pieces of economic data, however, hint a tightening-if-still-troubled labor market may prompt employers to raise pay sooner than later. The National Federation of Independent Business said last week that the share of small businesses reporting unfilled job openings rose to a record high in March. At the same time, the Institute for Supply Management said respondents continued to note “significant difficulties in attracting and retaining labor at their companies’ and suppliers’ facilities.”\nTaking those clues alongside economists’ expectations for robust hiring in the coming months, investors would be well-served to prepare for inflation that may be far less transitory than the Fed says it will be—and for policy tightening that could therefore come sooner than telegraphed.\nPayrolls now averaging 500,000 or more per month leave the Fed “clearly on track to give guidance that ‘substantial further progress’ may be reached in the relative near-term,” says Citi economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark. They say that will lead the Fed to begin tapering asset purchases toward the end of 2021, with the first rate increase in December 2022. The Fed has continued to suggest it won’t lift rates before 2024, though traders are increasingly skeptical.\nKey to any change in the Fed’s policy outlook are wages. The cost of labor is typically a company’s biggest expense, and rising wages are considered stickier than things like the soaring commodity prices firms are facing amid supply-chain disruptions and surging demand.\nShepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics says the potential for wage increases to accelerate is much greater than in the recovery that followed the last recession. “Wages were the dog that didn’t bark in the last cycle, but it’s not at all clear they will be so well-behaved this time,” he says.\nThe Fed not only wants to see higher wages but also has expressed a higher-than-typical tolerance for inflation that runs hotter than the traditional 2% target. Policy makers were confounded by stubborn wage growth alongside the boom of the past cycle, a development that has underpinned the argument that rates can stay very low even as the unemployment rate closes in on what’s considered full employment.\nBut, as Shepherdson puts it, the job market now looks nothing like the wasteland after the crash of 2008. The ongoing recovery powered by a recovering job market should give investors an increased sense of optimism. So should it give reason to position for faster-for-longer inflation—even if the Fed says otherwise.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/343138311"}