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2021-04-06

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Uneven Gains in Job Market Give Investors a Goldilocks Moment. Can It Last?<blockquote>就业市场的不均衡增长给投资者带来了金发女郎时刻。能持久吗？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":343138311,"tweetId":"343138311","gmtCreate":1617686507233,"gmtModify":1634297099499,"author":{"id":3579093726134418,"idStr":"3579093726134418","authorId":3579093726134418,"authorIdStr":"3579093726134418","name":"Junwei95","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5734fa382cf5d7d04f07c5680a28a7df","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Noice</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Noice</body></html>","text":"Noice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343138311","repostId":1165241320,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165241320","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617682155,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1165241320?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 12:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uneven Gains in Job Market Give Investors a Goldilocks Moment. Can It Last?<blockquote>就业市场的不均衡增长给投资者带来了金发女郎时刻。能持久吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165241320","media":"Barron's","summary":"The March jobs report was a knockout, at once reflecting strong rehiring while offering some still-w","content":"The March jobs report was a knockout, at once reflecting strong rehiring while offering some still-weak details that do little to change the Federal Reserve’s stance on the recovery and monetary policy.<blockquote>3 月份的就业报告令人震惊，一方面反映出强劲的再就业，另一方面也提供了一些仍然薄弱的细节，这些细节对改变美联储在经济复苏和货币政策问题上的立场作用不大。</blockquote> At least for now. The big question for investors is how long this type of Goldilocks job market lasts.<blockquote>至少现在是这样。投资者面临的最大问题是，这种类型的金发女孩就业市场能持续多久。</blockquote> On the one hand, companies increased payrolls by 916,000 in March—with an additional 156,000 jobs added in January and February via upward revisions to previously reported numbers. That pace of hiring was the best since August, much better than economists had anticipated, and it’s only expected to quicken as vaccine distribution boosts business and consumer confidence in the months ahead.<blockquote>一方面，企业在 3 月份增加了 916,000 个就业人数，其中 1 月和 2 月通过上调之前报告的数字，又增加了 156,000 个就业岗位。这一招聘速度是 8 月份以来最好的，远远好于经济学家的预期，而且随着疫苗分发提振企业和消费者对未来几个月的信心，预计这一速度只会加快。</blockquote> “Better—much better—numbers are coming in Q2,” says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. He predicts payrolls will rise by “well over” 1 million in April, and then by 2 million-plus in May and June.<blockquote>“万神殿宏观经济公司首席经济学家伊恩-谢泼德森（Ian Shepherdson）说：”第二季度的数据会更好--好得多。他预测，4 月份就业人数将增加 “远远超过 ”100 万人，5 月和 6 月就业人数将增加 200 万人以上。</blockquote> That’s not to say there isn’t still a ways to go before the labor market looks anything like it did before the pandemic struck a year earlier. Even after the strong gains reported Friday, the level of total nonfarm payrolls is still an enormous 8.4 million below the pre-pandemic level of February 2020, notes Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR. While hiring was broad-based in March, the hardest-hit areas, like entertainment, travel and leisure, still have considerable ground to recover.<blockquote>这并不是说，在劳动力市场恢复到一年前大流行病爆发前的样子之前，还有很长的路要走。MFR 首席美国经济学家乔希·夏皮罗 (Josh Shapiro) 指出，即使在周五公布强劲增长之后，非农就业人数总数仍比 2020 年 2 月大流行前的水平低 840 万人。虽然3月份招聘范围很广，但娱乐、旅游和休闲等受影响最严重的领域仍有相当大的复苏空间。</blockquote> “Fed Chair Powell has made it very clear that, barring an unexpectedly sharp and sustained jump in inflation, monetary policy will remain extraordinarily accommodative until the lion’s share of these jobs are recovered,” Shapiro says.<blockquote>“夏皮罗说：”美联储主席鲍威尔已经非常明确地表示，除非通胀出人意料地大幅持续跃升，否则货币政策将保持格外宽松，直到这些工作岗位中的大部分得以恢复。</blockquote> The Fed has increasingly started to focus on alternative labor-market measures that support low-for-longer interest-rate policy. None of those metrics threw a red flag in either direction on Friday.<blockquote>美联储越来越多地开始关注支持长期低利率政策的替代劳动力市场措施。周五，这些指标都没有向这两个方向发出危险信号。</blockquote> Labor force participation improved just a tad, still sitting at 61.5%, while the employment-to-population ratio for prime age workers (ages 25-54) rose modestly to 76.8% from 76.5% in March. Those small improvements show progress without giving investors new reason to question the Fed’s stance in the immediate term. A worsening in long-term unemployment (those out of work for more than 27 weeks rose to 43.4% from 41.5%) helps show how deep some of the pandemic damage really is.<blockquote>劳动力参与率仅略有改善，仍保持在 61.5%，而黄金年龄工人（25-54 岁）的就业与人口比率从 3 月份的 76.5% 小幅上升至 76.8%。这些微小的改善表明了进展，但并没有给投资者新的理由质疑美联储在短期内的立场。长期失业率的恶化（失业超过27周的失业率从41.5%上升到43.4%）有助于表明疫情造成的一些损害到底有多深。</blockquote> As for any sharp and sustained jump in inflation, the price indicators in Friday’s report were benign. Average hourly earnings fell 0.1% in March from a month earlier (economists predicted a 0.2% rate of increase), pushing the year-over-year increase down to 4.2% from a previous 5.3%. The year-over-year rates have been running higher than normal because of composition skew—the pandemic cost more low-wage workers their jobs, thus pushing them out of the calculation—and the March report showed employers aren’t yet having to raise pay to bring back workers.<blockquote>至于通货膨胀是否会出现急剧和持续的跃升，周五报告中的物价指标是良性的。3月份平均时薪环比下降0.1%（经济学家预测增长率为0.2%），同比增幅从之前的5.3%降至4.2%。由于构成偏差--大流行病使更多低工资工人失业，从而将他们排除在计算之外--而 3 月份的报告显示，雇主还不必提高工资来吸引工人。</blockquote> Some other pieces of economic data, however, hint a tightening-if-still-troubled labor market may prompt employers to raise pay sooner than later. The National Federation of Independent Business said last week that the share of small businesses reporting unfilled job openings rose to a record high in March. At the same time, the Institute for Supply Management said respondents continued to note “significant difficulties in attracting and retaining labor at their companies’ and suppliers’ facilities.”<blockquote>然而，其他一些经济数据暗示，如果劳动力市场仍然陷入困境，收紧可能会促使雇主尽早加薪。全国独立企业联合会上周表示，3月份报告空缺职位的小企业比例升至历史新高。与此同时，供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）表示，受访者继续指出 “在公司和供应商的工厂吸引和留住劳动力方面存在巨大困难”。</blockquote> Taking those clues alongside economists’ expectations for robust hiring in the coming months, investors would be well-served to prepare for inflation that may be far less transitory than the Fed says it will be—and for policy tightening that could therefore come sooner than telegraphed.<blockquote>将这些线索与经济学家对未来几个月强劲招聘的预期结合起来，投资者将为通胀做好充分准备，因为通胀可能远没有美联储所说的那么短暂，因此政策紧缩可能会比预报的来得更早。</blockquote> Payrolls now averaging 500,000 or more per month leave the Fed “clearly on track to give guidance that ‘substantial further progress’ may be reached in the relative near-term,” says Citi economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark. They say that will lead the Fed to begin tapering asset purchases toward the end of 2021, with the first rate increase in December 2022. The Fed has continued to suggest it won’t lift rates before 2024, though traders are increasingly skeptical.<blockquote>花旗经济学家安德鲁-霍伦霍斯特（Andrew Hollenhorst）和维罗妮卡-克拉克（Veronica Clark）表示，目前平均每月就业人数为 50 万或更多，这使得美联储 “显然有望提供指导，即在相对近期内可能会取得'实质性进一步进展'”。他们表示，这将导致美联储在 2021 年底开始缩减资产购买规模，并于 2022 年 12 月首次加息。美联储继续暗示在 2024 年之前不会加息，但交易员们越来越持怀疑态度。</blockquote> Key to any change in the Fed’s policy outlook are wages. The cost of labor is typically a company’s biggest expense, and rising wages are considered stickier than things like the soaring commodity prices firms are facing amid supply-chain disruptions and surging demand.<blockquote>美联储政策前景任何变化的关键都是工资。劳动力成本通常是公司最大的开支，在供应链中断和需求激增的情况下，工资上涨被认为比企业面临的大宗商品价格飙升等问题更具粘性。</blockquote> Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics says the potential for wage increases to accelerate is much greater than in the recovery that followed the last recession. “Wages were the dog that didn’t bark in the last cycle, but it’s not at all clear they will be so well-behaved this time,” he says.<blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics的Shepherdson表示，工资加速上涨的可能性比上次衰退后的复苏要大得多。“他说：”在上一个周期中，工资是一只没有吠叫的狗，但这一次他们是否会如此乖巧还不清楚。</blockquote> The Fed not only wants to see higher wages but also has expressed a higher-than-typical tolerance for inflation that runs hotter than the traditional 2% target. Policy makers were confounded by stubborn wage growth alongside the boom of the past cycle, a development that has underpinned the argument that rates can stay very low even as the unemployment rate closes in on what’s considered full employment.<blockquote>美联储不仅希望看到更高的工资，而且还表达了对比传统 2% 目标更高的通胀的容忍度。政策制定者对工资的顽固增长和上一个周期的繁荣感到困惑，这一发展为即使失业率接近充分就业水平，工资也可以保持在非常低的水平这一论点提供了基础。</blockquote> But, as Shepherdson puts it, the job market now looks nothing like the wasteland after the crash of 2008. The ongoing recovery powered by a recovering job market should give investors an increased sense of optimism. So should it give reason to position for faster-for-longer inflation—even if the Fed says otherwise.<blockquote>但是，正如谢泼德森所说，就业市场现在看起来一点也不像2008年崩盘后的荒地。就业市场复苏推动的持续复苏应该会让投资者更加乐观。那么，它是否应该为更快、更长时间的通胀提供理由——即使美联储不这么说。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uneven Gains in Job Market Give Investors a Goldilocks Moment. Can It Last?<blockquote>就业市场的不均衡增长给投资者带来了金发女郎时刻。能持久吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUneven Gains in Job Market Give Investors a Goldilocks Moment. Can It Last?<blockquote>就业市场的不均衡增长给投资者带来了金发女郎时刻。能持久吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-04-06 12:09\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe March jobs report was a knockout, at once reflecting strong rehiring while offering some still-weak details that do little to change the Federal Reserve’s stance on the recovery and monetary policy.<blockquote>3 月份的就业报告令人震惊，一方面反映出强劲的再就业，另一方面也提供了一些仍然薄弱的细节，这些细节对改变美联储在经济复苏和货币政策问题上的立场作用不大。</blockquote> At least for now. The big question for investors is how long this type of Goldilocks job market lasts.<blockquote>至少现在是这样。投资者面临的最大问题是，这种类型的金发女孩就业市场能持续多久。</blockquote> On the one hand, companies increased payrolls by 916,000 in March—with an additional 156,000 jobs added in January and February via upward revisions to previously reported numbers. That pace of hiring was the best since August, much better than economists had anticipated, and it’s only expected to quicken as vaccine distribution boosts business and consumer confidence in the months ahead.<blockquote>一方面，企业在 3 月份增加了 916,000 个就业人数，其中 1 月和 2 月通过上调之前报告的数字，又增加了 156,000 个就业岗位。这一招聘速度是 8 月份以来最好的，远远好于经济学家的预期，而且随着疫苗分发提振企业和消费者对未来几个月的信心，预计这一速度只会加快。</blockquote> “Better—much better—numbers are coming in Q2,” says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. He predicts payrolls will rise by “well over” 1 million in April, and then by 2 million-plus in May and June.<blockquote>“万神殿宏观经济公司首席经济学家伊恩-谢泼德森（Ian Shepherdson）说：”第二季度的数据会更好--好得多。他预测，4 月份就业人数将增加 “远远超过 ”100 万人，5 月和 6 月就业人数将增加 200 万人以上。</blockquote> That’s not to say there isn’t still a ways to go before the labor market looks anything like it did before the pandemic struck a year earlier. Even after the strong gains reported Friday, the level of total nonfarm payrolls is still an enormous 8.4 million below the pre-pandemic level of February 2020, notes Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR. While hiring was broad-based in March, the hardest-hit areas, like entertainment, travel and leisure, still have considerable ground to recover.<blockquote>这并不是说，在劳动力市场恢复到一年前大流行病爆发前的样子之前，还有很长的路要走。MFR 首席美国经济学家乔希·夏皮罗 (Josh Shapiro) 指出，即使在周五公布强劲增长之后，非农就业人数总数仍比 2020 年 2 月大流行前的水平低 840 万人。虽然3月份招聘范围很广，但娱乐、旅游和休闲等受影响最严重的领域仍有相当大的复苏空间。</blockquote> “Fed Chair Powell has made it very clear that, barring an unexpectedly sharp and sustained jump in inflation, monetary policy will remain extraordinarily accommodative until the lion’s share of these jobs are recovered,” Shapiro says.<blockquote>“夏皮罗说：”美联储主席鲍威尔已经非常明确地表示，除非通胀出人意料地大幅持续跃升，否则货币政策将保持格外宽松，直到这些工作岗位中的大部分得以恢复。</blockquote> The Fed has increasingly started to focus on alternative labor-market measures that support low-for-longer interest-rate policy. None of those metrics threw a red flag in either direction on Friday.<blockquote>美联储越来越多地开始关注支持长期低利率政策的替代劳动力市场措施。周五，这些指标都没有向这两个方向发出危险信号。</blockquote> Labor force participation improved just a tad, still sitting at 61.5%, while the employment-to-population ratio for prime age workers (ages 25-54) rose modestly to 76.8% from 76.5% in March. Those small improvements show progress without giving investors new reason to question the Fed’s stance in the immediate term. A worsening in long-term unemployment (those out of work for more than 27 weeks rose to 43.4% from 41.5%) helps show how deep some of the pandemic damage really is.<blockquote>劳动力参与率仅略有改善，仍保持在 61.5%，而黄金年龄工人（25-54 岁）的就业与人口比率从 3 月份的 76.5% 小幅上升至 76.8%。这些微小的改善表明了进展，但并没有给投资者新的理由质疑美联储在短期内的立场。长期失业率的恶化（失业超过27周的失业率从41.5%上升到43.4%）有助于表明疫情造成的一些损害到底有多深。</blockquote> As for any sharp and sustained jump in inflation, the price indicators in Friday’s report were benign. Average hourly earnings fell 0.1% in March from a month earlier (economists predicted a 0.2% rate of increase), pushing the year-over-year increase down to 4.2% from a previous 5.3%. The year-over-year rates have been running higher than normal because of composition skew—the pandemic cost more low-wage workers their jobs, thus pushing them out of the calculation—and the March report showed employers aren’t yet having to raise pay to bring back workers.<blockquote>至于通货膨胀是否会出现急剧和持续的跃升，周五报告中的物价指标是良性的。3月份平均时薪环比下降0.1%（经济学家预测增长率为0.2%），同比增幅从之前的5.3%降至4.2%。由于构成偏差--大流行病使更多低工资工人失业，从而将他们排除在计算之外--而 3 月份的报告显示，雇主还不必提高工资来吸引工人。</blockquote> Some other pieces of economic data, however, hint a tightening-if-still-troubled labor market may prompt employers to raise pay sooner than later. The National Federation of Independent Business said last week that the share of small businesses reporting unfilled job openings rose to a record high in March. At the same time, the Institute for Supply Management said respondents continued to note “significant difficulties in attracting and retaining labor at their companies’ and suppliers’ facilities.”<blockquote>然而，其他一些经济数据暗示，如果劳动力市场仍然陷入困境，收紧可能会促使雇主尽早加薪。全国独立企业联合会上周表示，3月份报告空缺职位的小企业比例升至历史新高。与此同时，供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）表示，受访者继续指出 “在公司和供应商的工厂吸引和留住劳动力方面存在巨大困难”。</blockquote> Taking those clues alongside economists’ expectations for robust hiring in the coming months, investors would be well-served to prepare for inflation that may be far less transitory than the Fed says it will be—and for policy tightening that could therefore come sooner than telegraphed.<blockquote>将这些线索与经济学家对未来几个月强劲招聘的预期结合起来，投资者将为通胀做好充分准备，因为通胀可能远没有美联储所说的那么短暂，因此政策紧缩可能会比预报的来得更早。</blockquote> Payrolls now averaging 500,000 or more per month leave the Fed “clearly on track to give guidance that ‘substantial further progress’ may be reached in the relative near-term,” says Citi economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark. They say that will lead the Fed to begin tapering asset purchases toward the end of 2021, with the first rate increase in December 2022. The Fed has continued to suggest it won’t lift rates before 2024, though traders are increasingly skeptical.<blockquote>花旗经济学家安德鲁-霍伦霍斯特（Andrew Hollenhorst）和维罗妮卡-克拉克（Veronica Clark）表示，目前平均每月就业人数为 50 万或更多，这使得美联储 “显然有望提供指导，即在相对近期内可能会取得'实质性进一步进展'”。他们表示，这将导致美联储在 2021 年底开始缩减资产购买规模，并于 2022 年 12 月首次加息。美联储继续暗示在 2024 年之前不会加息，但交易员们越来越持怀疑态度。</blockquote> Key to any change in the Fed’s policy outlook are wages. The cost of labor is typically a company’s biggest expense, and rising wages are considered stickier than things like the soaring commodity prices firms are facing amid supply-chain disruptions and surging demand.<blockquote>美联储政策前景任何变化的关键都是工资。劳动力成本通常是公司最大的开支，在供应链中断和需求激增的情况下，工资上涨被认为比企业面临的大宗商品价格飙升等问题更具粘性。</blockquote> Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics says the potential for wage increases to accelerate is much greater than in the recovery that followed the last recession. “Wages were the dog that didn’t bark in the last cycle, but it’s not at all clear they will be so well-behaved this time,” he says.<blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics的Shepherdson表示，工资加速上涨的可能性比上次衰退后的复苏要大得多。“他说：”在上一个周期中，工资是一只没有吠叫的狗，但这一次他们是否会如此乖巧还不清楚。</blockquote> The Fed not only wants to see higher wages but also has expressed a higher-than-typical tolerance for inflation that runs hotter than the traditional 2% target. Policy makers were confounded by stubborn wage growth alongside the boom of the past cycle, a development that has underpinned the argument that rates can stay very low even as the unemployment rate closes in on what’s considered full employment.<blockquote>美联储不仅希望看到更高的工资，而且还表达了对比传统 2% 目标更高的通胀的容忍度。政策制定者对工资的顽固增长和上一个周期的繁荣感到困惑，这一发展为即使失业率接近充分就业水平，工资也可以保持在非常低的水平这一论点提供了基础。</blockquote> But, as Shepherdson puts it, the job market now looks nothing like the wasteland after the crash of 2008. The ongoing recovery powered by a recovering job market should give investors an increased sense of optimism. So should it give reason to position for faster-for-longer inflation—even if the Fed says otherwise.<blockquote>但是，正如谢泼德森所说，就业市场现在看起来一点也不像2008年崩盘后的荒地。就业市场复苏推动的持续复苏应该会让投资者更加乐观。那么，它是否应该为更快、更长时间的通胀提供理由——即使美联储不这么说。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uneven-gains-in-job-market-give-investors-a-goldilocks-moment-can-it-last-51617383284?mod=hp_columnists\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uneven-gains-in-job-market-give-investors-a-goldilocks-moment-can-it-last-51617383284?mod=hp_columnists","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165241320","content_text":"The March jobs report was a knockout, at once reflecting strong rehiring while offering some still-weak details that do little to change the Federal Reserve’s stance on the recovery and monetary policy.\nAt least for now. The big question for investors is how long this type of Goldilocks job market lasts.\nOn the one hand, companies increased payrolls by 916,000 in March—with an additional 156,000 jobs added in January and February via upward revisions to previously reported numbers. That pace of hiring was the best since August, much better than economists had anticipated, and it’s only expected to quicken as vaccine distribution boosts business and consumer confidence in the months ahead.\n“Better—much better—numbers are coming in Q2,” says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. He predicts payrolls will rise by “well over” 1 million in April, and then by 2 million-plus in May and June.\nThat’s not to say there isn’t still a ways to go before the labor market looks anything like it did before the pandemic struck a year earlier. Even after the strong gains reported Friday, the level of total nonfarm payrolls is still an enormous 8.4 million below the pre-pandemic level of February 2020, notes Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR. While hiring was broad-based in March, the hardest-hit areas, like entertainment, travel and leisure, still have considerable ground to recover.\n“Fed Chair Powell has made it very clear that, barring an unexpectedly sharp and sustained jump in inflation, monetary policy will remain extraordinarily accommodative until the lion’s share of these jobs are recovered,” Shapiro says.\nThe Fed has increasingly started to focus on alternative labor-market measures that support low-for-longer interest-rate policy. None of those metrics threw a red flag in either direction on Friday.\nLabor force participation improved just a tad, still sitting at 61.5%, while the employment-to-population ratio for prime age workers (ages 25-54) rose modestly to 76.8% from 76.5% in March. Those small improvements show progress without giving investors new reason to question the Fed’s stance in the immediate term. A worsening in long-term unemployment (those out of work for more than 27 weeks rose to 43.4% from 41.5%) helps show how deep some of the pandemic damage really is.\nAs for any sharp and sustained jump in inflation, the price indicators in Friday’s report were benign. Average hourly earnings fell 0.1% in March from a month earlier (economists predicted a 0.2% rate of increase), pushing the year-over-year increase down to 4.2% from a previous 5.3%. The year-over-year rates have been running higher than normal because of composition skew—the pandemic cost more low-wage workers their jobs, thus pushing them out of the calculation—and the March report showed employers aren’t yet having to raise pay to bring back workers.\nSome other pieces of economic data, however, hint a tightening-if-still-troubled labor market may prompt employers to raise pay sooner than later. The National Federation of Independent Business said last week that the share of small businesses reporting unfilled job openings rose to a record high in March. At the same time, the Institute for Supply Management said respondents continued to note “significant difficulties in attracting and retaining labor at their companies’ and suppliers’ facilities.”\nTaking those clues alongside economists’ expectations for robust hiring in the coming months, investors would be well-served to prepare for inflation that may be far less transitory than the Fed says it will be—and for policy tightening that could therefore come sooner than telegraphed.\nPayrolls now averaging 500,000 or more per month leave the Fed “clearly on track to give guidance that ‘substantial further progress’ may be reached in the relative near-term,” says Citi economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark. They say that will lead the Fed to begin tapering asset purchases toward the end of 2021, with the first rate increase in December 2022. The Fed has continued to suggest it won’t lift rates before 2024, though traders are increasingly skeptical.\nKey to any change in the Fed’s policy outlook are wages. The cost of labor is typically a company’s biggest expense, and rising wages are considered stickier than things like the soaring commodity prices firms are facing amid supply-chain disruptions and surging demand.\nShepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics says the potential for wage increases to accelerate is much greater than in the recovery that followed the last recession. “Wages were the dog that didn’t bark in the last cycle, but it’s not at all clear they will be so well-behaved this time,” he says.\nThe Fed not only wants to see higher wages but also has expressed a higher-than-typical tolerance for inflation that runs hotter than the traditional 2% target. Policy makers were confounded by stubborn wage growth alongside the boom of the past cycle, a development that has underpinned the argument that rates can stay very low even as the unemployment rate closes in on what’s considered full employment.\nBut, as Shepherdson puts it, the job market now looks nothing like the wasteland after the crash of 2008. The ongoing recovery powered by a recovering job market should give investors an increased sense of optimism. So should it give reason to position for faster-for-longer inflation—even if the Fed says otherwise.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/343138311"}