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2021-04-10
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Why Semiconductors Are As Scarce As Gold<blockquote>为什么半导体像黄金一样稀缺</blockquote>
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This demand shock is primarily caused by consumers who can't splash the cash on services such as restaurants and travel and who are now spending more on consumer electronics. The strong demand for home office equipment and f","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>A shortage of semiconductors is a continuing and major issue.</li> <li>The squeezed market is forcing manufacturers to slow down, weighing on recovery.</li> <li>And ongoing strong demand keeps the pressure on.</li> <li>A ramp-up of capital investment to boost production capacity helps, but it's going to take time before demand and supply are structurally in sync again.</li> </ul> <b>Demand and supply shocks squeeze chip markets</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>半导体短缺是一个持续的重大问题。</li><li>受挤压的市场迫使制造商放慢脚步，拖累复苏。</li><li>持续强劲的需求使压力持续存在。</li><li>增加资本投资以提高产能会有所帮助，但需求和供应在结构上再次同步还需要时间。</li></ul><b>供需冲击挤压芯片市场</b></blockquote></p><p> Computer chips are in short supply due to a sudden spike in demand linked to Covid-19. This demand shock is primarily caused by consumers who can't splash the cash on services such as restaurants and travel and who are now spending more on consumer electronics. The strong demand for home office equipment and faster-than-expected recovery from other sectors are also not helping.</p><p><blockquote>由于与新冠肺炎相关的需求突然激增，计算机芯片供应短缺。这种需求冲击主要是由消费者造成的，他们无法在餐馆和旅游等服务上花钱，现在在消费电子产品上花费更多。对家庭办公设备的强劲需求和其他行业快于预期的复苏也于事无补。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, 5G cellular networks are rolling out and there's a subsequent rise in demand for new compatible smartphones. While most semiconductor factories operate at maximum capacity, breakdowns at four Texas facilities due to extreme cold and a fire at a Renesas Naka factory north of Tokyo worsened the situation going into the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，5G蜂窝网络正在推出，随之而来的是对新型兼容智能手机的需求上升。虽然大多数半导体工厂都在以最大产能运营，但德克萨斯州的四家工厂因极端寒冷而发生故障，以及东京北部的瑞萨纳卡工厂发生火灾，使第二季度的情况更加恶化。</blockquote></p><p> Suppliers of game consoles and smartphones are having real trouble meeting the demand for their products due to the semiconductor shortage. You can also see it in the automotive industry, where there've been production cuts and planned interruptions.</p><p><blockquote>由于半导体短缺，游戏机和智能手机供应商在满足其产品需求方面遇到了真正的困难。你也可以在汽车行业看到这一点，那里出现了减产和计划中断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Structural demand for chips is growing rapidly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>芯片结构性需求快速增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Although part of this demand shock is temporary, there's a structural dimension to rapidly expanding semiconductor usage. The market is expected to grow by double digits again in 2021, according to IC Insights. Many devices that used to be completely analogue are now digital and supported by integrated circuits. For example, smart thermostats or light bulbs compatible with home systems contain significant computational power to support their functionality as well as digital connectivity.</p><p><blockquote>尽管这种需求冲击部分是暂时的，但半导体使用的快速扩大存在结构性层面。根据IC Insights的数据，该市场预计将在2021年再次以两位数增长。许多过去完全模拟的设备现在都是数字化的，并由集成电路支持。例如，与家庭系统兼容的智能恒温器或灯泡包含强大的计算能力，以支持其功能以及数字连接。</blockquote></p><p> Cars and trucks also require an increasing number of semiconductors, thanks to the extension of integrated Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) and board computers. The rise in the production of electric vehicles and future steps in autonomous driving will push demand up still further.</p><p><blockquote>由于集成式高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）和车载计算机的扩展，汽车和卡车也需要越来越多的半导体。电动汽车产量的增长和自动驾驶的未来举措将进一步推高需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Supply issues may spill into 2022</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应问题可能会蔓延到2022年</b></blockquote></p><p> Current lead times for chips can be as long as 26 weeks and up to a year for some specific variants. Recent incidents at facilities in the US and Japan put the lead times further under pressure. Despite significant planned investments in semiconductor production facilities, capacity will remain scarce well into the second half of 2021. Even if the acute shortage is resolved in the second half of the year, semi-conductor manufacturing lines will remain operating at near-full capacity in the coming years, making the industry sensitive to future supply shocks.</p><p><blockquote>目前芯片的交付周期可能长达26周，对于一些特定的变体，可能长达一年。美国和日本工厂最近发生的事件进一步给交货时间带来了压力。尽管计划对半导体生产设施进行大量投资，但到2021年下半年，产能仍将稀缺。即使严重的短缺问题在下半年得到解决，半导体生产线在未来几年仍将保持接近满负荷运行，这使得该行业对未来的供应冲击非常敏感。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital investment boost will raise capacity, but this takes time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本投资的增加将提高产能，但这需要时间</b></blockquote></p><p> In order to meet growing demand, chipmakers started to ramp up investments. The Taiwanese company, TSMC (TSM), is boosting capital expenditure from USD17 billion in 2020 to USD28 billion in 2021. On top of that, the company plans to invest still more, to the tune of some USD100 billion in the next three years, to grow capacity.</p><p><blockquote>为了满足不断增长的需求，芯片制造商开始加大投资。台湾公司台积电(TSM)将资本支出从2020年的170亿美元增加到2021年的280亿美元。除此之外，该公司计划在未来三年内投资更多，达到约1000亿美元，以扩大产能。</blockquote></p><p> Samsung (SSNLF) also plans to increase semiconductor-related capital expenditure by 20%, up to USD31 billion this year, and announced there’s more to follow. Although these soaring investments will let supply catch up, this takes time and won’t bring much relief this year. Remember, chip production machines have long lead times. In the meantime, we notice that chip manufactures are ending volume discounts and some are also raising prices.</p><p><blockquote>三星(SSNLF)还计划今年将半导体相关资本支出增加20%，达到310亿美元，并宣布后续还会有更多资本支出。尽管这些飙升的投资会让供应迎头赶上，但这需要时间，今年不会带来太多缓解。请记住，芯片生产机器的交货时间很长。与此同时，我们注意到芯片制造商正在结束批量折扣，一些制造商也在提高价格。</blockquote></p><p> The science bit</p><p><blockquote>科学位</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>Chip production starts with wafers. A wafer (slice of semiconductor) acts as a substrate for microelectronic devices. Many so-called integrated circuits are printed on 200mm silicon wafers, being provided by silicon producers. Since the introduction of 300mm wafers in 2002, 200mm wafers were expected to phase out. Therefore, most investments in production capacity have been directed to production lines based on 300mm wafers.</li> <li>However, 200mm wafer-based production is technologically mature, offering relatively low development and production costs and very stable manufacturing processes. Therefore, many of the less-complex chips, such as sensors and transmitters and the more basic processing units, are still being developed based on this 200mm technology.</li> <li>The rise of smart devices and the Internet of Things (IoT) causes an unanticipated rise in demand for 200mm production capacity, contributing to the shortage. Although fresh 200mm capacity is coming available in 2021, foundries may be a bit reluctant to invest in this slightly dated technology, since 300mm wafer-based production is still expected to take over once production costs are sufficiently low.</li> <li>This means that supply is expected to remain weak compared to demand.</li> </ul> <b>Most wafer production capacity concentrated in Asia</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>芯片生产从晶圆开始。晶片（半导体切片）用作微电子器件的衬底。许多所谓的集成电路印刷在200毫米的硅片上，由硅生产商提供。自2002年推出300mm晶圆以来，预计200mm晶圆将逐步淘汰。因此，大部分产能投资都投向了基于300mm晶圆的产线。</li><li>然而，基于200mm晶圆的生产技术成熟，开发和生产成本相对较低，制造工艺非常稳定。因此，许多不太复杂的芯片，如传感器和发射器以及更基本的处理单元，仍然基于这种200mm技术进行开发。</li><li>智能设备和物联网(IoT)的兴起导致对200mm产能的需求意外增加，从而导致短缺。尽管新的200毫米产能将于2021年推出，但代工厂可能有点不愿意投资这种略显过时的技术，因为一旦生产成本足够低，基于300毫米晶圆的生产仍有望接管。</li><li>这意味着与需求相比，供应预计将保持疲软。</li></ul><b>大部分晶圆产能集中在亚洲</b></blockquote></p><p> Manufacturers of electronic devices generally outsource their semiconductor production partially to large so-called foundries such as TSMC, which produce wafers for third parties. Most installed wafer capacity (the capacity to process blank silicon wafers into chips) is based in Taiwan and South Korea. China and Japan also represent a significant share. Altogether 70-75% of supply is sourced from Asia.</p><p><blockquote>电子设备制造商通常将半导体生产部分外包给台积电等大型所谓代工厂，这些代工厂为第三方生产晶圆。大多数已安装的硅片产能（将空白硅片加工成芯片的产能）位于台湾和韩国。中国和日本也占了很大的份额。总共70-75%的供应来自亚洲。</blockquote></p><p> Only a small portion is produced in Europe, making the continent dependent and sensitive to delivery issues. That’s why the EU aims to create more capacity in its own region, and the US also intends to ramp up chip production as part of President Biden’s recently announced stimulus plan.</p><p><blockquote>只有一小部分是在欧洲生产的，这使得欧洲大陆对交付问题依赖和敏感。这就是为什么欧盟的目标是在自己的地区创造更多产能，美国也打算提高芯片产量，作为拜登总统最近宣布的刺激计划的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Share of installed wafer capacity per region</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各地区晶圆装机量份额</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b76d46b89e8aaf9673bfc593bdfd8d8\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Bain & Company, ING Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：贝恩公司、荷兰国际集团研究部</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Consumer electronics uses almost 75% of chip supplies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>消费电子产品使用了近75%的芯片供应</b></blockquote></p><p> In a digitalising world with fast-growing data volumes, various production sectors are increasingly dependent on chip supplies. Manufacturers of laptops and smartphones are obviously the largest consumers of chips, taking almost 75% of the pie. The remainder is delivered to the automotive sector, other manufacturers and infrastructure purposes. However, as we've just mentioned, with objects being increasingly connected and with more intelligence being built in, demand for semiconductors from all sides is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>在数据量快速增长的数字化世界中，各个生产部门越来越依赖芯片供应。笔记本电脑和智能手机制造商显然是芯片的最大消费者，几乎占据了75%的份额。其余部分交付给汽车行业、其他制造商和基础设施用途。然而，正如我们刚才提到的，随着物体的日益连接和更多智能的内置，各方对半导体的需求都在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Consumer electronics by far the largest chip user</b></p><p><blockquote><b>消费电子是迄今为止最大的芯片用户</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb51ca713018ea1885614dd617a09bf\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: IC Insights, figures Dec. 2020 (300mm), Dec. 2019 (200mm)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：IC Insights，2020年12月（300毫米）、2019年12月（200毫米）数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Automotive production takes a hit around the globe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球汽车生产受到打击</b></blockquote></p><p> The automotive industry has been especially hit hard by the semiconductor shortage. This is partly due to the common just-in-time manufacturing strategy. When automotive production was down 40% in the early days of the pandemic, many orders for car parts including semiconductors were cancelled. As demand for semiconductors recovered more quickly than expected, the spare production capacity has been allocated away from clients in the industry.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业受到半导体短缺的打击尤其严重。这部分是由于常见的准时制制造策略。当疫情初期汽车产量下降40%时，包括半导体在内的许多汽车零部件订单被取消。由于半导体需求恢复速度快于预期，闲置产能已从业内客户手中分配出去。</blockquote></p><p> Carmakers seem to have overestimated availability. In the second half of 2020, manufacturers were struggling to get their hands on semiconductors Consequently, these manufacturers cut or suspended production at sites worldwide for short periods.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商似乎高估了可用性。2020年下半年，制造商正在努力获得半导体，因此，这些制造商在全球范围内短期削减或暂停生产。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global car production at lower levels in 1Q 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年第一季度全球汽车产量较低</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06ea47f72759ffb19c1896c47ec353e8\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: IHS Markit</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：IHS Markit</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Continuing chip shortage limits car production recovery in 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>芯片持续短缺限制2021年汽车产量复苏</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip shortages led to around a million fewer cars being produced in the first quarter of 2021, according to IHS Market; that's some 5% of total production, and there were fewer cars being made than in the previous quarter. Compared with last year, global production is starting to recovery, but it's not easy to keep up with demand due to supply issues. Order books are full and lead times for new cars are up. We still expect global new car registrations to bounce back moderately, but recovery is expected to remain limited and we'll see just a few percentage points rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据IHS Market的数据，芯片短缺导致2021年第一季度汽车产量减少约100万辆；这约占总产量的5%，而且汽车产量比上一季度有所减少。与去年相比，全球产量开始恢复，但由于供应问题，要跟上需求并不容易。订单已满，新车的交货时间也延长了。我们仍然预计全球新车注册量将温和反弹，但复苏预计仍然有限，我们只会看到几个百分点的上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shortages add to disruptions felt by manufacturing countries</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短缺加剧了制造国感受到的干扰</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In terms of impact, the disruption will be felt most in countries with a relatively large dependence on automotive manufacturing, such as Germany. Due to the popularity of lean manufacturing among automotive companies, production cuts will also be felt by automotive parts suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>就影响而言，对汽车制造业依赖度相对较大的国家，如德国，将感受到最大的破坏。由于精益制造在汽车企业中的普及，汽车零部件供应商也会感受到减产。</blockquote></p><p> Consumer electronics companies are also facing supply chain issues resulting from the semiconductor shortage, which will hit the likes of South Korea. However, this is partly a result of the strong performance of the historically high demand for consumer electronics. Compared to car makers, they seem to be in a better contractual position. Nevertheless, the industry would surely perform even better without the capacity constraints it's facing.</p><p><blockquote>消费电子公司还面临半导体短缺导致的供应链问题，这将打击韩国等国家。然而，这在一定程度上是消费电子产品历史高位需求的强劲表现的结果。与汽车制造商相比，他们似乎处于更好的合同地位。尽管如此，如果没有面临产能限制，该行业肯定会表现得更好。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1617971836454","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Semiconductors Are As Scarce As Gold<blockquote>为什么半导体像黄金一样稀缺</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Semiconductors Are As Scarce As Gold<blockquote>为什么半导体像黄金一样稀缺</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Think</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-09 20:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>A shortage of semiconductors is a continuing and major issue.</li> <li>The squeezed market is forcing manufacturers to slow down, weighing on recovery.</li> <li>And ongoing strong demand keeps the pressure on.</li> <li>A ramp-up of capital investment to boost production capacity helps, but it's going to take time before demand and supply are structurally in sync again.</li> </ul> <b>Demand and supply shocks squeeze chip markets</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>半导体短缺是一个持续的重大问题。</li><li>受挤压的市场迫使制造商放慢脚步，拖累复苏。</li><li>持续强劲的需求使压力持续存在。</li><li>增加资本投资以提高产能会有所帮助，但需求和供应在结构上再次同步还需要时间。</li></ul><b>供需冲击挤压芯片市场</b></blockquote></p><p> Computer chips are in short supply due to a sudden spike in demand linked to Covid-19. This demand shock is primarily caused by consumers who can't splash the cash on services such as restaurants and travel and who are now spending more on consumer electronics. The strong demand for home office equipment and faster-than-expected recovery from other sectors are also not helping.</p><p><blockquote>由于与新冠肺炎相关的需求突然激增，计算机芯片供应短缺。这种需求冲击主要是由消费者造成的，他们无法在餐馆和旅游等服务上花钱，现在在消费电子产品上花费更多。对家庭办公设备的强劲需求和其他行业快于预期的复苏也于事无补。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, 5G cellular networks are rolling out and there's a subsequent rise in demand for new compatible smartphones. While most semiconductor factories operate at maximum capacity, breakdowns at four Texas facilities due to extreme cold and a fire at a Renesas Naka factory north of Tokyo worsened the situation going into the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，5G蜂窝网络正在推出，随之而来的是对新型兼容智能手机的需求上升。虽然大多数半导体工厂都在以最大产能运营，但德克萨斯州的四家工厂因极端寒冷而发生故障，以及东京北部的瑞萨纳卡工厂发生火灾，使第二季度的情况更加恶化。</blockquote></p><p> Suppliers of game consoles and smartphones are having real trouble meeting the demand for their products due to the semiconductor shortage. You can also see it in the automotive industry, where there've been production cuts and planned interruptions.</p><p><blockquote>由于半导体短缺，游戏机和智能手机供应商在满足其产品需求方面遇到了真正的困难。你也可以在汽车行业看到这一点，那里出现了减产和计划中断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Structural demand for chips is growing rapidly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>芯片结构性需求快速增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Although part of this demand shock is temporary, there's a structural dimension to rapidly expanding semiconductor usage. The market is expected to grow by double digits again in 2021, according to IC Insights. Many devices that used to be completely analogue are now digital and supported by integrated circuits. For example, smart thermostats or light bulbs compatible with home systems contain significant computational power to support their functionality as well as digital connectivity.</p><p><blockquote>尽管这种需求冲击部分是暂时的，但半导体使用的快速扩大存在结构性层面。根据IC Insights的数据，该市场预计将在2021年再次以两位数增长。许多过去完全模拟的设备现在都是数字化的，并由集成电路支持。例如，与家庭系统兼容的智能恒温器或灯泡包含强大的计算能力，以支持其功能以及数字连接。</blockquote></p><p> Cars and trucks also require an increasing number of semiconductors, thanks to the extension of integrated Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) and board computers. The rise in the production of electric vehicles and future steps in autonomous driving will push demand up still further.</p><p><blockquote>由于集成式高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）和车载计算机的扩展，汽车和卡车也需要越来越多的半导体。电动汽车产量的增长和自动驾驶的未来举措将进一步推高需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Supply issues may spill into 2022</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应问题可能会蔓延到2022年</b></blockquote></p><p> Current lead times for chips can be as long as 26 weeks and up to a year for some specific variants. Recent incidents at facilities in the US and Japan put the lead times further under pressure. Despite significant planned investments in semiconductor production facilities, capacity will remain scarce well into the second half of 2021. Even if the acute shortage is resolved in the second half of the year, semi-conductor manufacturing lines will remain operating at near-full capacity in the coming years, making the industry sensitive to future supply shocks.</p><p><blockquote>目前芯片的交付周期可能长达26周，对于一些特定的变体，可能长达一年。美国和日本工厂最近发生的事件进一步给交货时间带来了压力。尽管计划对半导体生产设施进行大量投资，但到2021年下半年，产能仍将稀缺。即使严重的短缺问题在下半年得到解决，半导体生产线在未来几年仍将保持接近满负荷运行，这使得该行业对未来的供应冲击非常敏感。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital investment boost will raise capacity, but this takes time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本投资的增加将提高产能，但这需要时间</b></blockquote></p><p> In order to meet growing demand, chipmakers started to ramp up investments. The Taiwanese company, TSMC (TSM), is boosting capital expenditure from USD17 billion in 2020 to USD28 billion in 2021. On top of that, the company plans to invest still more, to the tune of some USD100 billion in the next three years, to grow capacity.</p><p><blockquote>为了满足不断增长的需求，芯片制造商开始加大投资。台湾公司台积电(TSM)将资本支出从2020年的170亿美元增加到2021年的280亿美元。除此之外，该公司计划在未来三年内投资更多，达到约1000亿美元，以扩大产能。</blockquote></p><p> Samsung (SSNLF) also plans to increase semiconductor-related capital expenditure by 20%, up to USD31 billion this year, and announced there’s more to follow. Although these soaring investments will let supply catch up, this takes time and won’t bring much relief this year. Remember, chip production machines have long lead times. In the meantime, we notice that chip manufactures are ending volume discounts and some are also raising prices.</p><p><blockquote>三星(SSNLF)还计划今年将半导体相关资本支出增加20%，达到310亿美元，并宣布后续还会有更多资本支出。尽管这些飙升的投资会让供应迎头赶上，但这需要时间，今年不会带来太多缓解。请记住，芯片生产机器的交货时间很长。与此同时，我们注意到芯片制造商正在结束批量折扣，一些制造商也在提高价格。</blockquote></p><p> The science bit</p><p><blockquote>科学位</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li>Chip production starts with wafers. A wafer (slice of semiconductor) acts as a substrate for microelectronic devices. Many so-called integrated circuits are printed on 200mm silicon wafers, being provided by silicon producers. Since the introduction of 300mm wafers in 2002, 200mm wafers were expected to phase out. Therefore, most investments in production capacity have been directed to production lines based on 300mm wafers.</li> <li>However, 200mm wafer-based production is technologically mature, offering relatively low development and production costs and very stable manufacturing processes. Therefore, many of the less-complex chips, such as sensors and transmitters and the more basic processing units, are still being developed based on this 200mm technology.</li> <li>The rise of smart devices and the Internet of Things (IoT) causes an unanticipated rise in demand for 200mm production capacity, contributing to the shortage. Although fresh 200mm capacity is coming available in 2021, foundries may be a bit reluctant to invest in this slightly dated technology, since 300mm wafer-based production is still expected to take over once production costs are sufficiently low.</li> <li>This means that supply is expected to remain weak compared to demand.</li> </ul> <b>Most wafer production capacity concentrated in Asia</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>芯片生产从晶圆开始。晶片（半导体切片）用作微电子器件的衬底。许多所谓的集成电路印刷在200毫米的硅片上，由硅生产商提供。自2002年推出300mm晶圆以来，预计200mm晶圆将逐步淘汰。因此，大部分产能投资都投向了基于300mm晶圆的产线。</li><li>然而，基于200mm晶圆的生产技术成熟，开发和生产成本相对较低，制造工艺非常稳定。因此，许多不太复杂的芯片，如传感器和发射器以及更基本的处理单元，仍然基于这种200mm技术进行开发。</li><li>智能设备和物联网(IoT)的兴起导致对200mm产能的需求意外增加，从而导致短缺。尽管新的200毫米产能将于2021年推出，但代工厂可能有点不愿意投资这种略显过时的技术，因为一旦生产成本足够低，基于300毫米晶圆的生产仍有望接管。</li><li>这意味着与需求相比，供应预计将保持疲软。</li></ul><b>大部分晶圆产能集中在亚洲</b></blockquote></p><p> Manufacturers of electronic devices generally outsource their semiconductor production partially to large so-called foundries such as TSMC, which produce wafers for third parties. Most installed wafer capacity (the capacity to process blank silicon wafers into chips) is based in Taiwan and South Korea. China and Japan also represent a significant share. Altogether 70-75% of supply is sourced from Asia.</p><p><blockquote>电子设备制造商通常将半导体生产部分外包给台积电等大型所谓代工厂，这些代工厂为第三方生产晶圆。大多数已安装的硅片产能（将空白硅片加工成芯片的产能）位于台湾和韩国。中国和日本也占了很大的份额。总共70-75%的供应来自亚洲。</blockquote></p><p> Only a small portion is produced in Europe, making the continent dependent and sensitive to delivery issues. That’s why the EU aims to create more capacity in its own region, and the US also intends to ramp up chip production as part of President Biden’s recently announced stimulus plan.</p><p><blockquote>只有一小部分是在欧洲生产的，这使得欧洲大陆对交付问题依赖和敏感。这就是为什么欧盟的目标是在自己的地区创造更多产能，美国也打算提高芯片产量，作为拜登总统最近宣布的刺激计划的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Share of installed wafer capacity per region</b></p><p><blockquote><b>各地区晶圆装机量份额</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b76d46b89e8aaf9673bfc593bdfd8d8\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Bain & Company, ING Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：贝恩公司、荷兰国际集团研究部</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Consumer electronics uses almost 75% of chip supplies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>消费电子产品使用了近75%的芯片供应</b></blockquote></p><p> In a digitalising world with fast-growing data volumes, various production sectors are increasingly dependent on chip supplies. Manufacturers of laptops and smartphones are obviously the largest consumers of chips, taking almost 75% of the pie. The remainder is delivered to the automotive sector, other manufacturers and infrastructure purposes. However, as we've just mentioned, with objects being increasingly connected and with more intelligence being built in, demand for semiconductors from all sides is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>在数据量快速增长的数字化世界中，各个生产部门越来越依赖芯片供应。笔记本电脑和智能手机制造商显然是芯片的最大消费者，几乎占据了75%的份额。其余部分交付给汽车行业、其他制造商和基础设施用途。然而，正如我们刚才提到的，随着物体的日益连接和更多智能的内置，各方对半导体的需求都在上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Consumer electronics by far the largest chip user</b></p><p><blockquote><b>消费电子是迄今为止最大的芯片用户</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfb51ca713018ea1885614dd617a09bf\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: IC Insights, figures Dec. 2020 (300mm), Dec. 2019 (200mm)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：IC Insights，2020年12月（300毫米）、2019年12月（200毫米）数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Automotive production takes a hit around the globe</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全球汽车生产受到打击</b></blockquote></p><p> The automotive industry has been especially hit hard by the semiconductor shortage. This is partly due to the common just-in-time manufacturing strategy. When automotive production was down 40% in the early days of the pandemic, many orders for car parts including semiconductors were cancelled. As demand for semiconductors recovered more quickly than expected, the spare production capacity has been allocated away from clients in the industry.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业受到半导体短缺的打击尤其严重。这部分是由于常见的准时制制造策略。当疫情初期汽车产量下降40%时，包括半导体在内的许多汽车零部件订单被取消。由于半导体需求恢复速度快于预期，闲置产能已从业内客户手中分配出去。</blockquote></p><p> Carmakers seem to have overestimated availability. In the second half of 2020, manufacturers were struggling to get their hands on semiconductors Consequently, these manufacturers cut or suspended production at sites worldwide for short periods.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商似乎高估了可用性。2020年下半年，制造商正在努力获得半导体，因此，这些制造商在全球范围内短期削减或暂停生产。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Global car production at lower levels in 1Q 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年第一季度全球汽车产量较低</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06ea47f72759ffb19c1896c47ec353e8\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: IHS Markit</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：IHS Markit</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Continuing chip shortage limits car production recovery in 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>芯片持续短缺限制2021年汽车产量复苏</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip shortages led to around a million fewer cars being produced in the first quarter of 2021, according to IHS Market; that's some 5% of total production, and there were fewer cars being made than in the previous quarter. Compared with last year, global production is starting to recovery, but it's not easy to keep up with demand due to supply issues. Order books are full and lead times for new cars are up. We still expect global new car registrations to bounce back moderately, but recovery is expected to remain limited and we'll see just a few percentage points rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据IHS Market的数据，芯片短缺导致2021年第一季度汽车产量减少约100万辆；这约占总产量的5%，而且汽车产量比上一季度有所减少。与去年相比，全球产量开始恢复，但由于供应问题，要跟上需求并不容易。订单已满，新车的交货时间也延长了。我们仍然预计全球新车注册量将温和反弹，但复苏预计仍然有限，我们只会看到几个百分点的上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shortages add to disruptions felt by manufacturing countries</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短缺加剧了制造国感受到的干扰</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In terms of impact, the disruption will be felt most in countries with a relatively large dependence on automotive manufacturing, such as Germany. Due to the popularity of lean manufacturing among automotive companies, production cuts will also be felt by automotive parts suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>就影响而言，对汽车制造业依赖度相对较大的国家，如德国，将感受到最大的破坏。由于精益制造在汽车企业中的普及，汽车零部件供应商也会感受到减产。</blockquote></p><p> Consumer electronics companies are also facing supply chain issues resulting from the semiconductor shortage, which will hit the likes of South Korea. However, this is partly a result of the strong performance of the historically high demand for consumer electronics. Compared to car makers, they seem to be in a better contractual position. Nevertheless, the industry would surely perform even better without the capacity constraints it's facing.</p><p><blockquote>消费电子公司还面临半导体短缺导致的供应链问题，这将打击韩国等国家。然而，这在一定程度上是消费电子产品历史高位需求的强劲表现的结果。与汽车制造商相比，他们似乎处于更好的合同地位。尽管如此，如果没有面临产能限制，该行业肯定会表现得更好。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://think.ing.com/articles/why-semiconductors-have-become-scarce-as-gold\">Think</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","SSNLF":"三星电子","QCOM":"高通","TSM":"台积电",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","00981":"中芯国际","AMD":"美国超微公司",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://think.ing.com/articles/why-semiconductors-have-become-scarce-as-gold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115040048","content_text":"Summary\n\nA shortage of semiconductors is a continuing and major issue.\nThe squeezed market is forcing manufacturers to slow down, weighing on recovery.\nAnd ongoing strong demand keeps the pressure on.\nA ramp-up of capital investment to boost production capacity helps, but it's going to take time before demand and supply are structurally in sync again.\n\nDemand and supply shocks squeeze chip markets\nComputer chips are in short supply due to a sudden spike in demand linked to Covid-19. This demand shock is primarily caused by consumers who can't splash the cash on services such as restaurants and travel and who are now spending more on consumer electronics. The strong demand for home office equipment and faster-than-expected recovery from other sectors are also not helping.\nOn top of that, 5G cellular networks are rolling out and there's a subsequent rise in demand for new compatible smartphones. While most semiconductor factories operate at maximum capacity, breakdowns at four Texas facilities due to extreme cold and a fire at a Renesas Naka factory north of Tokyo worsened the situation going into the second quarter.\nSuppliers of game consoles and smartphones are having real trouble meeting the demand for their products due to the semiconductor shortage. You can also see it in the automotive industry, where there've been production cuts and planned interruptions.\nStructural demand for chips is growing rapidly\nAlthough part of this demand shock is temporary, there's a structural dimension to rapidly expanding semiconductor usage. The market is expected to grow by double digits again in 2021, according to IC Insights. Many devices that used to be completely analogue are now digital and supported by integrated circuits. For example, smart thermostats or light bulbs compatible with home systems contain significant computational power to support their functionality as well as digital connectivity.\nCars and trucks also require an increasing number of semiconductors, thanks to the extension of integrated Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS) and board computers. The rise in the production of electric vehicles and future steps in autonomous driving will push demand up still further.\nSupply issues may spill into 2022\nCurrent lead times for chips can be as long as 26 weeks and up to a year for some specific variants. Recent incidents at facilities in the US and Japan put the lead times further under pressure. Despite significant planned investments in semiconductor production facilities, capacity will remain scarce well into the second half of 2021. Even if the acute shortage is resolved in the second half of the year, semi-conductor manufacturing lines will remain operating at near-full capacity in the coming years, making the industry sensitive to future supply shocks.\nCapital investment boost will raise capacity, but this takes time\nIn order to meet growing demand, chipmakers started to ramp up investments. The Taiwanese company, TSMC (TSM), is boosting capital expenditure from USD17 billion in 2020 to USD28 billion in 2021. On top of that, the company plans to invest still more, to the tune of some USD100 billion in the next three years, to grow capacity.\nSamsung (SSNLF) also plans to increase semiconductor-related capital expenditure by 20%, up to USD31 billion this year, and announced there’s more to follow. Although these soaring investments will let supply catch up, this takes time and won’t bring much relief this year. Remember, chip production machines have long lead times. In the meantime, we notice that chip manufactures are ending volume discounts and some are also raising prices.\nThe science bit\n\nChip production starts with wafers. A wafer (slice of semiconductor) acts as a substrate for microelectronic devices. Many so-called integrated circuits are printed on 200mm silicon wafers, being provided by silicon producers. Since the introduction of 300mm wafers in 2002, 200mm wafers were expected to phase out. Therefore, most investments in production capacity have been directed to production lines based on 300mm wafers.\nHowever, 200mm wafer-based production is technologically mature, offering relatively low development and production costs and very stable manufacturing processes. Therefore, many of the less-complex chips, such as sensors and transmitters and the more basic processing units, are still being developed based on this 200mm technology.\nThe rise of smart devices and the Internet of Things (IoT) causes an unanticipated rise in demand for 200mm production capacity, contributing to the shortage. Although fresh 200mm capacity is coming available in 2021, foundries may be a bit reluctant to invest in this slightly dated technology, since 300mm wafer-based production is still expected to take over once production costs are sufficiently low.\nThis means that supply is expected to remain weak compared to demand.\n\nMost wafer production capacity concentrated in Asia\nManufacturers of electronic devices generally outsource their semiconductor production partially to large so-called foundries such as TSMC, which produce wafers for third parties. Most installed wafer capacity (the capacity to process blank silicon wafers into chips) is based in Taiwan and South Korea. China and Japan also represent a significant share. Altogether 70-75% of supply is sourced from Asia.\nOnly a small portion is produced in Europe, making the continent dependent and sensitive to delivery issues. That’s why the EU aims to create more capacity in its own region, and the US also intends to ramp up chip production as part of President Biden’s recently announced stimulus plan.\nShare of installed wafer capacity per region\nSource: Bain & Company, ING Research\nConsumer electronics uses almost 75% of chip supplies\nIn a digitalising world with fast-growing data volumes, various production sectors are increasingly dependent on chip supplies. Manufacturers of laptops and smartphones are obviously the largest consumers of chips, taking almost 75% of the pie. The remainder is delivered to the automotive sector, other manufacturers and infrastructure purposes. However, as we've just mentioned, with objects being increasingly connected and with more intelligence being built in, demand for semiconductors from all sides is on the rise.\nConsumer electronics by far the largest chip user\nSource: IC Insights, figures Dec. 2020 (300mm), Dec. 2019 (200mm)\nAutomotive production takes a hit around the globe\nThe automotive industry has been especially hit hard by the semiconductor shortage. This is partly due to the common just-in-time manufacturing strategy. When automotive production was down 40% in the early days of the pandemic, many orders for car parts including semiconductors were cancelled. As demand for semiconductors recovered more quickly than expected, the spare production capacity has been allocated away from clients in the industry.\nCarmakers seem to have overestimated availability. In the second half of 2020, manufacturers were struggling to get their hands on semiconductors Consequently, these manufacturers cut or suspended production at sites worldwide for short periods.\nGlobal car production at lower levels in 1Q 2021\nSource: IHS Markit\nContinuing chip shortage limits car production recovery in 2021\nChip shortages led to around a million fewer cars being produced in the first quarter of 2021, according to IHS Market; that's some 5% of total production, and there were fewer cars being made than in the previous quarter. Compared with last year, global production is starting to recovery, but it's not easy to keep up with demand due to supply issues. Order books are full and lead times for new cars are up. We still expect global new car registrations to bounce back moderately, but recovery is expected to remain limited and we'll see just a few percentage points rise.\nShortages add to disruptions felt by manufacturing countries\nIn terms of impact, the disruption will be felt most in countries with a relatively large dependence on automotive manufacturing, such as Germany. Due to the popularity of lean manufacturing among automotive companies, production cuts will also be felt by automotive parts suppliers.\nConsumer electronics companies are also facing supply chain issues resulting from the semiconductor shortage, which will hit the likes of South Korea. However, this is partly a result of the strong performance of the historically high demand for consumer electronics. Compared to car makers, they seem to be in a better contractual position. Nevertheless, the industry would surely perform even better without the capacity constraints it's facing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"INTC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"00981":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/346853377"}
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