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2021-04-08

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5 Things You Might Have Missed in the Fed’s Minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要中您可能错过的5件事</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":348012818,"tweetId":"348012818","gmtCreate":1617868017334,"gmtModify":1634296061232,"author":{"id":3571784946922966,"idStr":"3571784946922966","authorId":3571784946922966,"authorIdStr":"3571784946922966","name":"kohaku84","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ced1f1ad7dc4fefc13b10ec983b8fd7e","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Fomc</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Fomc</body></html>","text":"Fomc","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348012818","repostId":1122722518,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122722518","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617867442,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122722518?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-08 15:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Things You Might Have Missed in the Fed’s Minutes<blockquote>美联储会议纪要中您可能错过的5件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122722518","media":"Barrons","summary":"Trading was quiet Wednesday, with stocks closing in mixed territory and the benchmark 10-year Treasu","content":"Trading was quiet Wednesday, with stocks closing in mixed territory and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield flat after the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes didn’t provide much in the way of surprises.<blockquote>周三交易平静，股市收盘涨跌互现，基准10年期国债收益率持平，此前美联储最新会议纪要没有提供太多惊喜。</blockquote>The market’s response was muted because the most important takeaways were already addressed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at hisregular postmeeting press conferencelast month. While the economy is showing signs of recovery and markets are pricing in a strong rebound in growth, members of the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, said it “would likely be some time” before they will need to start winding down their $120 billion in bond purchases, which is seen as an initial step on the path toward raising interest rates.<blockquote>市场反应平淡，因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已经在上个月的例行会后新闻发布会上谈到了最重要的要点。尽管经济显示出复苏迹象，市场正在消化增长强劲反弹，但联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)成员表示，他们“可能需要一段时间”才需要开始逐步减少1200亿美元的债券购买，这被视为加息道路上的第一步。</blockquote>“Despite these positive indicators and an improved public health situation, participants agreed that the economy remained far from the Committee’s longer-run goals and that the path ahead remained highly uncertain, with the pandemic continuing to pose considerable risks to the outlook,” the minutes said. That tracks with Powell’s comments.<blockquote>会议纪要称：“尽管有这些积极指标和公共卫生状况的改善，但与会者一致认为，经济仍远未达到委员会的长期目标，未来的道路仍然高度不确定，疫情继续对前景构成相当大的风险。”说。这与鲍威尔的评论一致。</blockquote>That doesn’t mean there weren’t some notable details in Wednesday’s meeting minutes. The Fed’s staff and members of the Fed’s policy committee discussed some important market trends that could matter for markets. Here are five:<blockquote>这并不意味着周三的会议记录中没有一些值得注意的细节。美联储工作人员和美联储政策委员会成员讨论了一些可能对市场至关重要的重要市场趋势。这里有五个：</blockquote>Why central bankers (and their staff) think Treasury yields are rising.<blockquote>为什么央行行长（及其员工）认为国债收益率正在上升.</blockquote>Fed officials and staffers discussedthe selloff in Treasuriesthat have pushed 10-year yields up by nearly 75 basis points, or hundredths of a percentage point, so far this year. The main driver of the increase since January hasn’t been inflation expectations, but rather an increase in “real” or inflation-adjusted yields.<blockquote>美联储官员和工作人员讨论了今年迄今为止已将10年期国债收益率推高近75个基点，即百分之几个百分点的抛售。自1月份以来，这一增长的主要驱动力不是通胀预期，而是“实际”或通胀调整后收益率的增长。</blockquote>In theory, real yields should reflect expectations for Fed policy. But while staffers did discuss bets that the Fed would tighten—more on that later—they attributed “a significant portion” of the market’s selloff to rising term premiums, a catchall metric meant to capture factors that can affect yields other than inflation or Fed policy forecasts. The rise in term premiums could be reflecting fiscal policy or the increase in long-term Treasury issuance planned to finance Covid-19 relief efforts.<blockquote>理论上，实际收益率应该反映对美联储政策的预期。不过，尽管工作人员确实讨论了美联储将收紧政策的押注（稍后会详细介绍），但他们将市场抛售的“很大一部分”归因于期限溢价上升，这是一个包罗万象的指标，旨在捕捉除通胀或美联储政策预测之外可能影响收益率的因素。期限溢价的上升可能反映了财政政策或计划为Covid-19救援工作提供资金的长期国债发行的增加。</blockquote>“Higher term premiums could reflect the outlook for more expansive fiscal policy and an associated upward revision in the expected path for Treasury debt outstanding,” said staffers, according to the minutes’ summary of the discussion. “Increased uncertainty over the outlook for longer-term interest rates as well as technical factors may also have contributed to the rise.”<blockquote>根据会议纪要的讨论摘要，工作人员表示：“较高的期限溢价可能反映出更扩张性财政政策的前景以及未偿国债预期路径的相关上调。”“长期利率前景的不确定性增加以及技术因素也可能导致利率上升。”</blockquote>For their part, the FOMC members “generally viewed [the increase in yields] as reflecting the improved economic outlook, some firming in inflation expectations, and expectations for increased Treasury debt issuance.” Not too much to worry about, in other words.<blockquote>就FOMC成员而言，他们“普遍认为[收益率上升]反映了经济前景的改善、通胀预期的一些坚定以及对国债发行增加的预期。”换句话说，没什么好担心的。</blockquote>Officials were slightly less sanguine aboutthe ugly trading in late February, however: “Disorderly conditions in Treasury markets or a persistent rise in yields that could jeopardize progress toward the Committee’s goals were seen as cause for concern.”<blockquote>然而，官员们对2月底的丑陋交易略显不那么乐观：“国债市场的无序状况或收益率持续上升可能危及委员会目标的进展，被视为令人担忧的原因。”</blockquote>Bond traders are saying and doing different things.<blockquote>债券交易员正在说和做不同的事情。</blockquote>The Fed’s staff might be attributing the rise in yields to the kitchen-sink indicator known as the term premium, but markets are still betting on a quicker pace of Fed rate increases.<blockquote>美联储工作人员可能将收益率上升归因于被称为期限溢价的厨房水槽指标，但市场仍押注美联储加息步伐加快。</blockquote>Staffers acknowledged this, according to the minutes, and said derivatives markets are pricing the Fed’s first rate increase in the first quarter of 2023.<blockquote>会议纪要显示，工作人员承认了这一点，并表示衍生品市场正在为美联储2023年第一季度的首次加息定价。</blockquote>But staffers also played down the issue by highlighting surveys of bond traders and institutional investors. Those market participants tell the Fed they have only slightly increased their forecasts for interest rates since late January. Surveys now indicate that investors and traders expect rates to be five basis points higher at the end of 2023, or one-fifth of a rate increase. In contrast, market-based estimates have increased by 50 basis points, implying two rate increases.<blockquote>但工作人员也通过强调对债券交易员和机构投资者的调查来淡化这个问题。这些市场参与者告诉美联储，自1月底以来，他们仅小幅上调了利率预测。目前的调查显示，投资者和交易员预计2023年底利率将上涨5个基点，即加息幅度的五分之一。相比之下，市场预期增加了50个基点，意味着加息两次。</blockquote>So what’s responsible for the discrepancy? It could be that a large group of investors that aren’t surveyed are betting on quicker rate increases, or investors and traders could be hedging against a range of possibilities for Fed interest-rate hikes whether or not they believe they will come. Or traders could be saying one thing and doing another.<blockquote>那么是什么造成了这种差异呢？可能是一大群未接受调查的投资者押注加息速度加快，或者投资者和交易员可能正在对冲美联储加息的一系列可能性，无论他们是否相信加息会到来。或者交易者可能说一套做一套。</blockquote>The Fed knows it has options if money-market rates keep falling.<blockquote>美联储知道，如果货币市场利率继续下降，它还有其他选择。</blockquote>Another issue that came up in the Fed’s discussions was&nbsp;declining money-market rates. Plenty of cash has already been sloshing around the U.S. financial system looking for a home, as the Treasury Department reduces its bill issuance and its cash balance ahead of the debt-ceiling reinstatement this summer. Plus, the reinstatement of some regulatory requirements may push more cash away from global banks and into money-market funds instead.<blockquote>美联储讨论中出现的另一个问题是货币市场利率下降。随着财政部在今年夏天恢复债务上限之前减少票据发行和现金余额，大量现金已经在美国金融体系中流动寻找归宿。此外，一些监管要求的恢复可能会将更多现金从全球银行转移到货币市场基金。</blockquote>Officials have partly addressed this issue already, with a technical tweak of one of their policy tools called the overnight reverse-repurchase (or repo) facility.<blockquote>官员们已经部分解决了这个问题，对他们的政策工具之一隔夜逆回购（或回购）工具进行了技术调整。</blockquote>The facility provides a place for money-market funds to put their cash overnight at a 0% rate. That is meant to prevent those funds from sending too much cash into short-term Treasury bills or repo markets, which could boost demand so much in those markets that interest rates fall below zero.<blockquote>该工具为货币市场基金提供了一个以0%利率隔夜存放现金的场所。这是为了防止这些基金向短期国库券或回购市场注入过多现金，这可能会大幅提振这些市场的需求，导致利率降至零以下。</blockquote>The Fed said at its last meeting that each money-market counterparty can pledge $80 billion of cash with its facility overnight, up from $30 billion previously. According to the meeting minutes, a few FOMC members said they would support lifting the limit altogether.<blockquote>美联储在上次会议上表示，每个货币市场交易对手隔夜可以通过其工具质押800亿美元现金，高于此前的300亿美元。根据会议纪要，一些FOMC成员表示，他们将支持完全取消限额。</blockquote>Inflation forecasts carry much less weight than results.<blockquote>通胀预测的分量远低于结果。</blockquote>Fed Chairman Powell addressed this in his&nbsp;press conference after the Fed’s latest meeting. But the minutes didn’t include much indication of worry about runaway inflation, or any hints of dissent in officials’ desire to wait for stronger inflation to appear before tightening policy.<blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔在美联储最近一次会议后的新闻发布会上谈到了这一点。但会议纪要没有太多迹象表明对通胀失控的担忧，也没有迹象表明官员们希望等待通胀走强后再收紧政策。</blockquote>That matters because some Wall Street hawks have focused on&nbsp;this year’s steady rise in market inflation forecasts&nbsp;as a sign that the Fed may fall behind the curve, so to speak, and end up raising interest rates too late to prevent harmful inflation. But analysts at BCA Research have found that in times when the Fed’s favored inflation gauge averages around its target, market forecasts usually average around 2.3% to 2.5%.<blockquote>这一点很重要，因为一些华尔街鹰派人士将今年市场通胀预测的稳步上升视为美联储可能落后于曲线的迹象，可以说，最终加息太晚，无法防止有害的通胀。但BCA Research的分析师发现，当美联储青睐的通胀指标平均接近其目标时，市场预测通常平均在2.3%至2.5%左右。</blockquote>“Participants also noted the importance of communicating to the public that…the path of the federal-funds rate and the balance sheet depend on actual progress toward reaching the Committee’s maximum-employment and inflation goals,” Wednesday’s meeting minutes said. “In particular, various participants noted that changes in the path of policy should be based primarily on observed outcomes rather than forecasts.”<blockquote>周三的会议纪要称：“与会者还指出了向公众传达……联邦基金利率和资产负债表的路径取决于实现委员会最大就业和通胀目标的实际进展。”“特别是，多位与会者指出，政策路径的变化应主要基于观察到的结果而不是预测。”</blockquote>That should provide some assurance to investors who are concerned about the market’s&nbsp;five-year inflation forecasts&nbsp;rising to around 2.5%.<blockquote>这应该会给那些担心市场五年通胀预期升至2.5%左右的投资者提供一些保证。</blockquote>A few officials are starting to worry about “financial imbalances.”<blockquote>一些官员开始担心“财政失衡”。</blockquote>A noninflation concern that was given slightly more airtime in the meeting minutes was the possibility of excess in financial markets, given stock markets near record highs, Treasury yields low, and some&nbsp;riskier companies paying near-record-low costs to borrow.<blockquote>鉴于股市接近历史高位、国债收益率较低以及一些风险较高的公司支付接近历史低位的借贷成本，会议纪要中出现稍多的非通胀担忧是金融市场可能出现过剩。</blockquote>“A couple of participants expressed concern that highly accommodative financial conditions could lead to excessive risk-taking and the buildup of financial imbalances,” the minutes said.<blockquote>会议纪要称：“一些与会者表示担心，高度宽松的金融状况可能导致过度冒险和金融失衡的加剧。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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While the economy is showing signs of recovery and markets are pricing in a strong rebound in growth, members of the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, said it “would likely be some time” before they will need to start winding down their $120 billion in bond purchases, which is seen as an initial step on the path toward raising interest rates.<blockquote>市场反应平淡，因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已经在上个月的例行会后新闻发布会上谈到了最重要的要点。尽管经济显示出复苏迹象，市场正在消化增长强劲反弹，但联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)成员表示，他们“可能需要一段时间”才需要开始逐步减少1200亿美元的债券购买，这被视为加息道路上的第一步。</blockquote>“Despite these positive indicators and an improved public health situation, participants agreed that the economy remained far from the Committee’s longer-run goals and that the path ahead remained highly uncertain, with the pandemic continuing to pose considerable risks to the outlook,” the minutes said. That tracks with Powell’s comments.<blockquote>会议纪要称：“尽管有这些积极指标和公共卫生状况的改善，但与会者一致认为，经济仍远未达到委员会的长期目标，未来的道路仍然高度不确定，疫情继续对前景构成相当大的风险。”说。这与鲍威尔的评论一致。</blockquote>That doesn’t mean there weren’t some notable details in Wednesday’s meeting minutes. The Fed’s staff and members of the Fed’s policy committee discussed some important market trends that could matter for markets. Here are five:<blockquote>这并不意味着周三的会议记录中没有一些值得注意的细节。美联储工作人员和美联储政策委员会成员讨论了一些可能对市场至关重要的重要市场趋势。这里有五个：</blockquote>Why central bankers (and their staff) think Treasury yields are rising.<blockquote>为什么央行行长（及其员工）认为国债收益率正在上升.</blockquote>Fed officials and staffers discussedthe selloff in Treasuriesthat have pushed 10-year yields up by nearly 75 basis points, or hundredths of a percentage point, so far this year. The main driver of the increase since January hasn’t been inflation expectations, but rather an increase in “real” or inflation-adjusted yields.<blockquote>美联储官员和工作人员讨论了今年迄今为止已将10年期国债收益率推高近75个基点，即百分之几个百分点的抛售。自1月份以来，这一增长的主要驱动力不是通胀预期，而是“实际”或通胀调整后收益率的增长。</blockquote>In theory, real yields should reflect expectations for Fed policy. But while staffers did discuss bets that the Fed would tighten—more on that later—they attributed “a significant portion” of the market’s selloff to rising term premiums, a catchall metric meant to capture factors that can affect yields other than inflation or Fed policy forecasts. The rise in term premiums could be reflecting fiscal policy or the increase in long-term Treasury issuance planned to finance Covid-19 relief efforts.<blockquote>理论上，实际收益率应该反映对美联储政策的预期。不过，尽管工作人员确实讨论了美联储将收紧政策的押注（稍后会详细介绍），但他们将市场抛售的“很大一部分”归因于期限溢价上升，这是一个包罗万象的指标，旨在捕捉除通胀或美联储政策预测之外可能影响收益率的因素。期限溢价的上升可能反映了财政政策或计划为Covid-19救援工作提供资金的长期国债发行的增加。</blockquote>“Higher term premiums could reflect the outlook for more expansive fiscal policy and an associated upward revision in the expected path for Treasury debt outstanding,” said staffers, according to the minutes’ summary of the discussion. “Increased uncertainty over the outlook for longer-term interest rates as well as technical factors may also have contributed to the rise.”<blockquote>根据会议纪要的讨论摘要，工作人员表示：“较高的期限溢价可能反映出更扩张性财政政策的前景以及未偿国债预期路径的相关上调。”“长期利率前景的不确定性增加以及技术因素也可能导致利率上升。”</blockquote>For their part, the FOMC members “generally viewed [the increase in yields] as reflecting the improved economic outlook, some firming in inflation expectations, and expectations for increased Treasury debt issuance.” Not too much to worry about, in other words.<blockquote>就FOMC成员而言，他们“普遍认为[收益率上升]反映了经济前景的改善、通胀预期的一些坚定以及对国债发行增加的预期。”换句话说，没什么好担心的。</blockquote>Officials were slightly less sanguine aboutthe ugly trading in late February, however: “Disorderly conditions in Treasury markets or a persistent rise in yields that could jeopardize progress toward the Committee’s goals were seen as cause for concern.”<blockquote>然而，官员们对2月底的丑陋交易略显不那么乐观：“国债市场的无序状况或收益率持续上升可能危及委员会目标的进展，被视为令人担忧的原因。”</blockquote>Bond traders are saying and doing different things.<blockquote>债券交易员正在说和做不同的事情。</blockquote>The Fed’s staff might be attributing the rise in yields to the kitchen-sink indicator known as the term premium, but markets are still betting on a quicker pace of Fed rate increases.<blockquote>美联储工作人员可能将收益率上升归因于被称为期限溢价的厨房水槽指标，但市场仍押注美联储加息步伐加快。</blockquote>Staffers acknowledged this, according to the minutes, and said derivatives markets are pricing the Fed’s first rate increase in the first quarter of 2023.<blockquote>会议纪要显示，工作人员承认了这一点，并表示衍生品市场正在为美联储2023年第一季度的首次加息定价。</blockquote>But staffers also played down the issue by highlighting surveys of bond traders and institutional investors. Those market participants tell the Fed they have only slightly increased their forecasts for interest rates since late January. Surveys now indicate that investors and traders expect rates to be five basis points higher at the end of 2023, or one-fifth of a rate increase. In contrast, market-based estimates have increased by 50 basis points, implying two rate increases.<blockquote>但工作人员也通过强调对债券交易员和机构投资者的调查来淡化这个问题。这些市场参与者告诉美联储，自1月底以来，他们仅小幅上调了利率预测。目前的调查显示，投资者和交易员预计2023年底利率将上涨5个基点，即加息幅度的五分之一。相比之下，市场预期增加了50个基点，意味着加息两次。</blockquote>So what’s responsible for the discrepancy? It could be that a large group of investors that aren’t surveyed are betting on quicker rate increases, or investors and traders could be hedging against a range of possibilities for Fed interest-rate hikes whether or not they believe they will come. Or traders could be saying one thing and doing another.<blockquote>那么是什么造成了这种差异呢？可能是一大群未接受调查的投资者押注加息速度加快，或者投资者和交易员可能正在对冲美联储加息的一系列可能性，无论他们是否相信加息会到来。或者交易者可能说一套做一套。</blockquote>The Fed knows it has options if money-market rates keep falling.<blockquote>美联储知道，如果货币市场利率继续下降，它还有其他选择。</blockquote>Another issue that came up in the Fed’s discussions was&nbsp;declining money-market rates. Plenty of cash has already been sloshing around the U.S. financial system looking for a home, as the Treasury Department reduces its bill issuance and its cash balance ahead of the debt-ceiling reinstatement this summer. Plus, the reinstatement of some regulatory requirements may push more cash away from global banks and into money-market funds instead.<blockquote>美联储讨论中出现的另一个问题是货币市场利率下降。随着财政部在今年夏天恢复债务上限之前减少票据发行和现金余额，大量现金已经在美国金融体系中流动寻找归宿。此外，一些监管要求的恢复可能会将更多现金从全球银行转移到货币市场基金。</blockquote>Officials have partly addressed this issue already, with a technical tweak of one of their policy tools called the overnight reverse-repurchase (or repo) facility.<blockquote>官员们已经部分解决了这个问题，对他们的政策工具之一隔夜逆回购（或回购）工具进行了技术调整。</blockquote>The facility provides a place for money-market funds to put their cash overnight at a 0% rate. That is meant to prevent those funds from sending too much cash into short-term Treasury bills or repo markets, which could boost demand so much in those markets that interest rates fall below zero.<blockquote>该工具为货币市场基金提供了一个以0%利率隔夜存放现金的场所。这是为了防止这些基金向短期国库券或回购市场注入过多现金，这可能会大幅提振这些市场的需求，导致利率降至零以下。</blockquote>The Fed said at its last meeting that each money-market counterparty can pledge $80 billion of cash with its facility overnight, up from $30 billion previously. According to the meeting minutes, a few FOMC members said they would support lifting the limit altogether.<blockquote>美联储在上次会议上表示，每个货币市场交易对手隔夜可以通过其工具质押800亿美元现金，高于此前的300亿美元。根据会议纪要，一些FOMC成员表示，他们将支持完全取消限额。</blockquote>Inflation forecasts carry much less weight than results.<blockquote>通胀预测的分量远低于结果。</blockquote>Fed Chairman Powell addressed this in his&nbsp;press conference after the Fed’s latest meeting. But the minutes didn’t include much indication of worry about runaway inflation, or any hints of dissent in officials’ desire to wait for stronger inflation to appear before tightening policy.<blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔在美联储最近一次会议后的新闻发布会上谈到了这一点。但会议纪要没有太多迹象表明对通胀失控的担忧，也没有迹象表明官员们希望等待通胀走强后再收紧政策。</blockquote>That matters because some Wall Street hawks have focused on&nbsp;this year’s steady rise in market inflation forecasts&nbsp;as a sign that the Fed may fall behind the curve, so to speak, and end up raising interest rates too late to prevent harmful inflation. But analysts at BCA Research have found that in times when the Fed’s favored inflation gauge averages around its target, market forecasts usually average around 2.3% to 2.5%.<blockquote>这一点很重要，因为一些华尔街鹰派人士将今年市场通胀预测的稳步上升视为美联储可能落后于曲线的迹象，可以说，最终加息太晚，无法防止有害的通胀。但BCA Research的分析师发现，当美联储青睐的通胀指标平均接近其目标时，市场预测通常平均在2.3%至2.5%左右。</blockquote>“Participants also noted the importance of communicating to the public that…the path of the federal-funds rate and the balance sheet depend on actual progress toward reaching the Committee’s maximum-employment and inflation goals,” Wednesday’s meeting minutes said. “In particular, various participants noted that changes in the path of policy should be based primarily on observed outcomes rather than forecasts.”<blockquote>周三的会议纪要称：“与会者还指出了向公众传达……联邦基金利率和资产负债表的路径取决于实现委员会最大就业和通胀目标的实际进展。”“特别是，多位与会者指出，政策路径的变化应主要基于观察到的结果而不是预测。”</blockquote>That should provide some assurance to investors who are concerned about the market’s&nbsp;five-year inflation forecasts&nbsp;rising to around 2.5%.<blockquote>这应该会给那些担心市场五年通胀预期升至2.5%左右的投资者提供一些保证。</blockquote>A few officials are starting to worry about “financial imbalances.”<blockquote>一些官员开始担心“财政失衡”。</blockquote>A noninflation concern that was given slightly more airtime in the meeting minutes was the possibility of excess in financial markets, given stock markets near record highs, Treasury yields low, and some&nbsp;riskier companies paying near-record-low costs to borrow.<blockquote>鉴于股市接近历史高位、国债收益率较低以及一些风险较高的公司支付接近历史低位的借贷成本，会议纪要中出现稍多的非通胀担忧是金融市场可能出现过剩。</blockquote>“A couple of participants expressed concern that highly accommodative financial conditions could lead to excessive risk-taking and the buildup of financial imbalances,” the minutes said.<blockquote>会议纪要称：“一些与会者表示担心，高度宽松的金融状况可能导致过度冒险和金融失衡的加剧。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/5-things-you-might-have-missed-in-the-feds-meeting-minutes-51617831613?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/5-things-you-might-have-missed-in-the-feds-meeting-minutes-51617831613?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122722518","content_text":"Trading was quiet Wednesday, with stocks closing in mixed territory and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield flat after the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes didn’t provide much in the way of surprises.The market’s response was muted because the most important takeaways were already addressed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at hisregular postmeeting press conferencelast month. While the economy is showing signs of recovery and markets are pricing in a strong rebound in growth, members of the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, said it “would likely be some time” before they will need to start winding down their $120 billion in bond purchases, which is seen as an initial step on the path toward raising interest rates.“Despite these positive indicators and an improved public health situation, participants agreed that the economy remained far from the Committee’s longer-run goals and that the path ahead remained highly uncertain, with the pandemic continuing to pose considerable risks to the outlook,” the minutes said. That tracks with Powell’s comments.That doesn’t mean there weren’t some notable details in Wednesday’s meeting minutes. The Fed’s staff and members of the Fed’s policy committee discussed some important market trends that could matter for markets. Here are five:Why central bankers (and their staff) think Treasury yields are rising.Fed officials and staffers discussedthe selloff in Treasuriesthat have pushed 10-year yields up by nearly 75 basis points, or hundredths of a percentage point, so far this year. The main driver of the increase since January hasn’t been inflation expectations, but rather an increase in “real” or inflation-adjusted yields.In theory, real yields should reflect expectations for Fed policy. But while staffers did discuss bets that the Fed would tighten—more on that later—they attributed “a significant portion” of the market’s selloff to rising term premiums, a catchall metric meant to capture factors that can affect yields other than inflation or Fed policy forecasts. The rise in term premiums could be reflecting fiscal policy or the increase in long-term Treasury issuance planned to finance Covid-19 relief efforts.“Higher term premiums could reflect the outlook for more expansive fiscal policy and an associated upward revision in the expected path for Treasury debt outstanding,” said staffers, according to the minutes’ summary of the discussion. “Increased uncertainty over the outlook for longer-term interest rates as well as technical factors may also have contributed to the rise.”For their part, the FOMC members “generally viewed [the increase in yields] as reflecting the improved economic outlook, some firming in inflation expectations, and expectations for increased Treasury debt issuance.” Not too much to worry about, in other words.Officials were slightly less sanguine aboutthe ugly trading in late February, however: “Disorderly conditions in Treasury markets or a persistent rise in yields that could jeopardize progress toward the Committee’s goals were seen as cause for concern.”Bond traders are saying and doing different things.The Fed’s staff might be attributing the rise in yields to the kitchen-sink indicator known as the term premium, but markets are still betting on a quicker pace of Fed rate increases.Staffers acknowledged this, according to the minutes, and said derivatives markets are pricing the Fed’s first rate increase in the first quarter of 2023.But staffers also played down the issue by highlighting surveys of bond traders and institutional investors. Those market participants tell the Fed they have only slightly increased their forecasts for interest rates since late January. Surveys now indicate that investors and traders expect rates to be five basis points higher at the end of 2023, or one-fifth of a rate increase. In contrast, market-based estimates have increased by 50 basis points, implying two rate increases.So what’s responsible for the discrepancy? It could be that a large group of investors that aren’t surveyed are betting on quicker rate increases, or investors and traders could be hedging against a range of possibilities for Fed interest-rate hikes whether or not they believe they will come. Or traders could be saying one thing and doing another.The Fed knows it has options if money-market rates keep falling.Another issue that came up in the Fed’s discussions was declining money-market rates. Plenty of cash has already been sloshing around the U.S. financial system looking for a home, as the Treasury Department reduces its bill issuance and its cash balance ahead of the debt-ceiling reinstatement this summer. Plus, the reinstatement of some regulatory requirements may push more cash away from global banks and into money-market funds instead.Officials have partly addressed this issue already, with a technical tweak of one of their policy tools called the overnight reverse-repurchase (or repo) facility.The facility provides a place for money-market funds to put their cash overnight at a 0% rate. That is meant to prevent those funds from sending too much cash into short-term Treasury bills or repo markets, which could boost demand so much in those markets that interest rates fall below zero.The Fed said at its last meeting that each money-market counterparty can pledge $80 billion of cash with its facility overnight, up from $30 billion previously. According to the meeting minutes, a few FOMC members said they would support lifting the limit altogether.Inflation forecasts carry much less weight than results.Fed Chairman Powell addressed this in his press conference after the Fed’s latest meeting. But the minutes didn’t include much indication of worry about runaway inflation, or any hints of dissent in officials’ desire to wait for stronger inflation to appear before tightening policy.That matters because some Wall Street hawks have focused on this year’s steady rise in market inflation forecasts as a sign that the Fed may fall behind the curve, so to speak, and end up raising interest rates too late to prevent harmful inflation. But analysts at BCA Research have found that in times when the Fed’s favored inflation gauge averages around its target, market forecasts usually average around 2.3% to 2.5%.“Participants also noted the importance of communicating to the public that…the path of the federal-funds rate and the balance sheet depend on actual progress toward reaching the Committee’s maximum-employment and inflation goals,” Wednesday’s meeting minutes said. “In particular, various participants noted that changes in the path of policy should be based primarily on observed outcomes rather than forecasts.”That should provide some assurance to investors who are concerned about the market’s five-year inflation forecasts rising to around 2.5%.A few officials are starting to worry about “financial imbalances.”A noninflation concern that was given slightly more airtime in the meeting minutes was the possibility of excess in financial markets, given stock markets near record highs, Treasury yields low, and some riskier companies paying near-record-low costs to borrow.“A couple of participants expressed concern that highly accommodative financial conditions could lead to excessive risk-taking and the buildup of financial imbalances,” the minutes said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/348012818"}