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2021-04-09

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Opinion: Stocks’ short-term signals are bullish but Peter Lynch’s long-term investing advice still applies<blockquote>观点：股票短期信号看涨，但彼得-林奇的长期投资建议仍然适用</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":348243846,"tweetId":"348243846","gmtCreate":1617934846585,"gmtModify":1634295653792,"author":{"id":3579833810423165,"idStr":"3579833810423165","authorId":3579833810423165,"authorIdStr":"3579833810423165","name":"Gab_Boey","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[开心]&nbsp; </body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[开心]&nbsp; </body></html>","text":"[开心]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348243846","repostId":1131825246,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131825246","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617934488,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1131825246?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-09 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Stocks’ short-term signals are bullish but Peter Lynch’s long-term investing advice still applies<blockquote>观点： 股票短期信号看涨，但彼得-林奇的长期投资建议仍然适用</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131825246","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Legendary fund manager said to buy what you know and that matters in this trigger-happy market.As a ","content":"Legendary fund manager said to buy what you know and that matters in this trigger-happy market.As a freelance writer and author, I’ve been fortunate to have interviewed many stock-market gurus over the years. One of the most memorable was with the legendary Peter Lynch, the former Fidelity Investments mutual fund manager. Years ago for an article, I spoke to him about one of his favorite subjects: Helping young people learn to invest.<blockquote>传奇基金经理表示，购买你所知道的东西，这在这个触发快乐的市场中很重要。作为一名自由撰稿人和作家，多年来我有幸采访过许多股市大师。其中最令人难忘的是传奇人物彼得·林奇，他是前富达投资共同基金经理。几年前，在一篇文章中，我和他谈到了他最喜欢的话题之一：帮助年轻人学习投资。</blockquote>Do your research<blockquote>做你的研究</blockquote>Lynch popularized the idea to invest in what you know — meaning to own shares of the companies that you are familiar with. He wrote three bestselling books on his ideas, including actually going in person to observe what people were buying first-hand.<blockquote>林奇推广了投资你所知道的东西的想法——这意味着拥有你熟悉的公司的股票。他写了三本关于他的想法的畅销书，包括亲自去观察人们在买什么。</blockquote>Lynch was famous for visiting the companies that he wanted to buy stock in. For example, before buying shares in an automobile stock, Lynch would go to the dealer showroom, converse with the salespeople, and check out the inventory.<blockquote>林奇以拜访他想购买股票的公司而闻名。例如，在购买汽车股票之前，林奇会去经销商展厅，与销售人员交谈，并检查库存。</blockquote>His advice, while sounding simplistic, is actually brilliant. After all, most people spend more time and effort researching buying a new refrigerator than a stock. I made that mistake when I first starting investing, sinking $50,000 into shares of a Texas cell phone company that I had never even heard about. Why? Because an acquaintance who knew more than I did about the stock market said I should. “You can double your money,” he promised. Famous last words.<blockquote>他的建议虽然听起来很简单，但实际上很聪明。毕竟，大多数人花在研究购买新冰箱上的时间和精力比股票更多。当我刚开始投资时，我犯了这个错误，投入了 5 万美元购买了一家我从未听说过的德克萨斯州手机公司的股票。为什么？因为一个比我更了解股市的熟人说我应该这样做。“他承诺说：”你可以把钱翻倍。著名的遗言。</blockquote>Instead of doubling my money, I lost half of it within months when the company nearly went bankrupt after some questionable accounting maneuvers. It was also the first and last time I ever bought stocks on margin.<blockquote>当公司在一些有问题的会计操作后几乎破产时，我的钱没有翻倍，而是在几个月内损失了一半。这也是我第一次也是最后一次用保证金购买股票。</blockquote>Using margin, the broker allowed me to use my original $25,000 to buy another $25,000 worth of stock (2-1 margin). When the stock plunged, I not only lost money on my original investment, I also owed the brokerage for the money I borrowed. Mismanaging margin is one of the ways that many investors get into trouble when their stocks go against them.<blockquote>使用保证金，经纪人允许我用原来的25,000美元再购买价值25,000美元的股票（2-1保证金）。当股票暴跌时，我不仅原来的投资赔了钱，还欠了券商借的钱。保证金管理不善是许多投资者在股票走势不利时陷入困境的方式之一。</blockquote>Study balance sheets and stock charts<blockquote>研究资产负债表和股票图表</blockquote>Had I followed Lynch’s advice and done some basic research, I would have discovered that the so-called cell phone company was a scam. It was being promoted by fake press releases and inflated posts on social media.<blockquote>如果我听从林奇的建议，做了一些基本的调查，我就会发现所谓的手机公司是个骗局。它被虚假的新闻稿和社交媒体上夸大的帖子所宣传。</blockquote>In hindsight, I could have flown to Texas and visited the company. I would have discovered that it had only two employees. It would have been a lot cheaper to fly there than lose $25,000.&nbsp;I also could have studied the company’s balance sheet, looked at a stock chart, and studied its earnings reports. It sounds like common sense, but think of how many people buy stocks every day without doing the most basic research, what is referred to as exercising “due diligence.” Others call it “doing your homework.”<blockquote>事后看来，我本可以飞往德克萨斯州参观这家公司。我会发现它只有两名员工。飞去那里比损失 2.5 万美元要便宜得多。我还可以研究一下公司的资产负债表，看看股票图表，研究一下公司的收益报告。这听起来像是常识，但想想看，有多少人每天购买股票时没有进行最基本的研究，也就是所谓的 “尽职调查 ”。其他人则看涨期权 “做作业”。</blockquote>How Lynch handled bear markets<blockquote>林奇如何应对熊市</blockquote>From my interview with Lynch, I learned that he doesn’t make predictions. “I have no idea what the market will do over the next one or two years,” he told me. “What I do know is that if interest rates go up, inflation will go up and in the near term the stock market will go down. I also know that once every 18 months the market has a decline of 10%. These are called corrections. We could easily have a 10% correction. Perhaps one out of three of these corrections turns into a 20% to 25 % correction. These are called bear markets.”<blockquote>从对林奇的采访中，我了解到他不会做出预测。“他告诉我：”我不知道未来一两年市场会发生什么。“我所知道的是，如果利率上升，通货膨胀就会上升，短期内股市就会下跌。我还知道，市场每 18 个月就会下跌 10%。这就是所谓的回调。我们很容易就会出现 10% 的回调。也许这些修正中有三分之一会变成20%到25%的修正。这就是所谓的熊市。”</blockquote>Lynch took market corrections in stride, including bear markets. Although he disliked bear markets since he was a long-only manager and hated losing money when one occurred, he didn’t panic. “If you understand what companies you own and who their competitors are,” Lynch said, “you’re in good shape. You don’t panic if the market goes down and the stock goes down. If you don’t understand what you own and don’t understand what a company does and it falls by half, what should you do? If you haven’t done your research, you might as well call a psychic hotline for investment advice.”<blockquote>林奇泰然自若地应对市场调整，包括熊市。虽然他不喜欢熊市，因为他是一名只做多头的经理，也讨厌在熊市发生时亏损，但他并没有恐慌。“林奇说：”如果你了解自己拥有哪些公司，以及他们的竞争对手是谁，“你的状态就很好。如果市场下跌，股票下跌，你也不会恐慌。如果你不了解自己拥有什么，不了解一家公司是做什么的，而它跌了一半，你该怎么办？如果你还没有做好研究，不妨看涨期权一条通灵热线，寻求投资建议。”</blockquote>I learned from Lynch that although bear markets are inevitable, they cannot be predicted. That is why before one occurs, you must evaluate what stocks or funds you own. If you are confident about your investments, you won’t get shaken out.<blockquote>我从林奇那里学到，虽然熊市不可避免，但它们是无法预测的。这就是为什么在发生之前，您必须评估您拥有哪些股票或基金。如果你对自己的投资有信心，你就不会动摇。</blockquote>For me, it means reducing some of my positions, especially given the U.S. market’s current technical indicators. Although the market has been on a 12-year bull run, it is still vulnerable to a steep correction, or worse, a bear market. That is why it’s more important than ever to do the basic research (i.e. study balance sheets and stock charts).<blockquote>对我来说，这意味着要减少一些头寸，尤其是考虑到美国市场目前的技术指标。尽管市场已经经历了 12 年的牛市，但仍然容易出现大幅回调，或者更糟的是，出现熊市。这就是为什么做基础研究（即研究资产负债表和股票图表）比以往任何时候都更加重要。</blockquote>For short-term traders, here are what some solid technical indicators are saying now about the U.S. market as of the April 8 close.<blockquote>对于短期交易者来说，以下是截至 4 月 8 日收盘时一些可靠的技术指标对美国市场的看法。</blockquote>Moving averages:&nbsp;Bullish. The S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.42%is on a tear — well-above its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. According to moving averages, all systems are “go.”<blockquote>均线：看涨。标准普尔 500SPX 指数上涨 0.42%，远高于 50 日、100 日和 200 日移动平均线。根据移动平均线，所有系统都是 “go”。</blockquote>RSI (relative strength indicator):&nbsp;Overbought. RSI, which measures overbought/oversold conditions, is telling us the market is getting close to the danger zone. When RSI hits 70 or higher, it is a danger sign. By the way, the S&amp;P 500’s weekly RSI is currently at 69.14. Consider this: In less than three weeks (since March 25), the S&amp;P 500 has moved higher by about 250 points.&nbsp;The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.17%RSI is 70.86, while the NasdaqCOMP,+1.03%is at 63.73.<blockquote>RSI（相对强度指标）：超买。衡量超买/超卖状况的RSI告诉我们市场正在接近危险区。当RSI达到70或更高时，这是一个危险信号。顺便说一下，标普500的每周 RSI 指数目前为 69.14。考虑一下：在不到三周的时间里（自3月25日以来），标普500已经上涨了约250点。道琼斯工业平均指数JIA，+0.17%RSI为70.86，而纳斯达克COMP，+1.03%为63.73。</blockquote>If the market keeps rising, short-term risks rise. Remember that markets or stocks can remain overbought or oversold for long time periods. For example, right now some individual stocks have RSI levels of 90 or higher, and yet, they are not falling. RSI is best used as a clue, but not to time the market.<blockquote>如果市场持续上涨，短期风险就会上升。请记住，市场或股票可能会长期保持超买或超卖状态。例如，目前一些个股的RSI水平为90或更高，但它们并没有下跌。RSI 最好用作线索，但不能用来判断市场时机。</blockquote>MACD (Moving average convergence divergence):&nbsp;Neutral. Many short-term traders rely on the MACD to give reliable trading signals. At the moment, while MACD for the S&amp;P 500 is above its zero line (positive), it is also even with its nine-day Signal Line (neutral).&nbsp;At the moment, MACD is not giving a clear signal for the S&amp;P 500. Meanwhile, MACD for the Dow is bullish (MACD above zero line and nine-day signal line) and is neutral for the Nasdaq.<blockquote>MACD（移动平均收敛发散）：中立。许多短线交易者依靠MACD给出可靠的交易信号。目前，虽然标普500的MACD高于其零线（阳性），但它也与其九日信号线（中性）持平。目前，MACD并没有给标普500一个明确的信号。与此同时，道琼斯指数的MACD看涨（MACD高于零线和九日信号线），纳斯达克指数中性。</blockquote>VIX (CBOE Volatility Index):&nbsp;Showing no fear. The VIX,VIX,-1.22%which measures the implied volatility of the S&amp;P 500, has been falling for months, and is in the basement (it’s currently just under 17.0). This tells us there is low volatility and little fear. Few expect anything bad to happen to the stock market, and if stocks slide, many believe the market “will come back.” Only Mr. Market knows if this is true.<blockquote>VIX（芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数）：没有表现出恐惧。衡量标普500隐含波动性的 VIX,VIX,-1.22% 指数几个月来一直在下跌，目前处于底部（目前略低于 17.0）。这告诉我们波动性低，恐惧少。很少有人预计股市会发生任何不好的事情，如果股市下滑，许多人认为市场 “会反弹”。只有先生。市场知道这是不是真的。</blockquote>Bottom line: If you are a long-term investor, Lynch’s methods and ideas are excellent. If there is a bear-market hiccup, use the opportunity to buy shares of stock or indexes that you have researched.<blockquote>一句话： 如果你是长期投资者，林奇的方法和想法非常出色。如果出现熊市打嗝，利用这个机会购买你研究过的股票或指数。</blockquote>If you are a short-term trader, there are clear warning signs that the U.S. market is too good to be true. Most importantly, don’t own anything you don’t understand, or that you got from a tip from a neighbor or a tout on TV. And be wary about buying on margin.<blockquote>如果你是短期交易者，有明显的警告信号表明美国市场好得令人难以置信。最重要的是，不要拥有任何你不懂的东西，或者从邻居的小费或电视上的吹捧中得到的东西。并警惕保证金购买。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Stocks’ short-term signals are bullish but Peter Lynch’s long-term investing advice still applies<blockquote>观点： 股票短期信号看涨，但彼得-林奇的长期投资建议仍然适用</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Stocks’ short-term signals are bullish but Peter Lynch’s long-term investing advice still applies<blockquote>观点： 股票短期信号看涨，但彼得-林奇的长期投资建议仍然适用</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-04-09 10:14\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nLegendary fund manager said to buy what you know and that matters in this trigger-happy market.As a freelance writer and author, I’ve been fortunate to have interviewed many stock-market gurus over the years. One of the most memorable was with the legendary Peter Lynch, the former Fidelity Investments mutual fund manager. Years ago for an article, I spoke to him about one of his favorite subjects: Helping young people learn to invest.<blockquote>传奇基金经理表示，购买你所知道的东西，这在这个触发快乐的市场中很重要。作为一名自由撰稿人和作家，多年来我有幸采访过许多股市大师。其中最令人难忘的是传奇人物彼得·林奇，他是前富达投资共同基金经理。几年前，在一篇文章中，我和他谈到了他最喜欢的话题之一：帮助年轻人学习投资。</blockquote>Do your research<blockquote>做你的研究</blockquote>Lynch popularized the idea to invest in what you know — meaning to own shares of the companies that you are familiar with. He wrote three bestselling books on his ideas, including actually going in person to observe what people were buying first-hand.<blockquote>林奇推广了投资你所知道的东西的想法——这意味着拥有你熟悉的公司的股票。他写了三本关于他的想法的畅销书，包括亲自去观察人们在买什么。</blockquote>Lynch was famous for visiting the companies that he wanted to buy stock in. For example, before buying shares in an automobile stock, Lynch would go to the dealer showroom, converse with the salespeople, and check out the inventory.<blockquote>林奇以拜访他想购买股票的公司而闻名。例如，在购买汽车股票之前，林奇会去经销商展厅，与销售人员交谈，并检查库存。</blockquote>His advice, while sounding simplistic, is actually brilliant. After all, most people spend more time and effort researching buying a new refrigerator than a stock. I made that mistake when I first starting investing, sinking $50,000 into shares of a Texas cell phone company that I had never even heard about. Why? Because an acquaintance who knew more than I did about the stock market said I should. “You can double your money,” he promised. Famous last words.<blockquote>他的建议虽然听起来很简单，但实际上很聪明。毕竟，大多数人花在研究购买新冰箱上的时间和精力比股票更多。当我刚开始投资时，我犯了这个错误，投入了 5 万美元购买了一家我从未听说过的德克萨斯州手机公司的股票。为什么？因为一个比我更了解股市的熟人说我应该这样做。“他承诺说：”你可以把钱翻倍。著名的遗言。</blockquote>Instead of doubling my money, I lost half of it within months when the company nearly went bankrupt after some questionable accounting maneuvers. It was also the first and last time I ever bought stocks on margin.<blockquote>当公司在一些有问题的会计操作后几乎破产时，我的钱没有翻倍，而是在几个月内损失了一半。这也是我第一次也是最后一次用保证金购买股票。</blockquote>Using margin, the broker allowed me to use my original $25,000 to buy another $25,000 worth of stock (2-1 margin). When the stock plunged, I not only lost money on my original investment, I also owed the brokerage for the money I borrowed. Mismanaging margin is one of the ways that many investors get into trouble when their stocks go against them.<blockquote>使用保证金，经纪人允许我用原来的25,000美元再购买价值25,000美元的股票（2-1保证金）。当股票暴跌时，我不仅原来的投资赔了钱，还欠了券商借的钱。保证金管理不善是许多投资者在股票走势不利时陷入困境的方式之一。</blockquote>Study balance sheets and stock charts<blockquote>研究资产负债表和股票图表</blockquote>Had I followed Lynch’s advice and done some basic research, I would have discovered that the so-called cell phone company was a scam. It was being promoted by fake press releases and inflated posts on social media.<blockquote>如果我听从林奇的建议，做了一些基本的调查，我就会发现所谓的手机公司是个骗局。它被虚假的新闻稿和社交媒体上夸大的帖子所宣传。</blockquote>In hindsight, I could have flown to Texas and visited the company. I would have discovered that it had only two employees. It would have been a lot cheaper to fly there than lose $25,000.&nbsp;I also could have studied the company’s balance sheet, looked at a stock chart, and studied its earnings reports. It sounds like common sense, but think of how many people buy stocks every day without doing the most basic research, what is referred to as exercising “due diligence.” Others call it “doing your homework.”<blockquote>事后看来，我本可以飞往德克萨斯州参观这家公司。我会发现它只有两名员工。飞去那里比损失 2.5 万美元要便宜得多。我还可以研究一下公司的资产负债表，看看股票图表，研究一下公司的收益报告。这听起来像是常识，但想想看，有多少人每天购买股票时没有进行最基本的研究，也就是所谓的 “尽职调查 ”。其他人则看涨期权 “做作业”。</blockquote>How Lynch handled bear markets<blockquote>林奇如何应对熊市</blockquote>From my interview with Lynch, I learned that he doesn’t make predictions. “I have no idea what the market will do over the next one or two years,” he told me. “What I do know is that if interest rates go up, inflation will go up and in the near term the stock market will go down. I also know that once every 18 months the market has a decline of 10%. These are called corrections. We could easily have a 10% correction. Perhaps one out of three of these corrections turns into a 20% to 25 % correction. These are called bear markets.”<blockquote>从对林奇的采访中，我了解到他不会做出预测。“他告诉我：”我不知道未来一两年市场会发生什么。“我所知道的是，如果利率上升，通货膨胀就会上升，短期内股市就会下跌。我还知道，市场每 18 个月就会下跌 10%。这就是所谓的回调。我们很容易就会出现 10% 的回调。也许这些修正中有三分之一会变成20%到25%的修正。这就是所谓的熊市。”</blockquote>Lynch took market corrections in stride, including bear markets. Although he disliked bear markets since he was a long-only manager and hated losing money when one occurred, he didn’t panic. “If you understand what companies you own and who their competitors are,” Lynch said, “you’re in good shape. You don’t panic if the market goes down and the stock goes down. If you don’t understand what you own and don’t understand what a company does and it falls by half, what should you do? If you haven’t done your research, you might as well call a psychic hotline for investment advice.”<blockquote>林奇泰然自若地应对市场调整，包括熊市。虽然他不喜欢熊市，因为他是一名只做多头的经理，也讨厌在熊市发生时亏损，但他并没有恐慌。“林奇说：”如果你了解自己拥有哪些公司，以及他们的竞争对手是谁，“你的状态就很好。如果市场下跌，股票下跌，你也不会恐慌。如果你不了解自己拥有什么，不了解一家公司是做什么的，而它跌了一半，你该怎么办？如果你还没有做好研究，不妨看涨期权一条通灵热线，寻求投资建议。”</blockquote>I learned from Lynch that although bear markets are inevitable, they cannot be predicted. That is why before one occurs, you must evaluate what stocks or funds you own. If you are confident about your investments, you won’t get shaken out.<blockquote>我从林奇那里学到，虽然熊市不可避免，但它们是无法预测的。这就是为什么在发生之前，您必须评估您拥有哪些股票或基金。如果你对自己的投资有信心，你就不会动摇。</blockquote>For me, it means reducing some of my positions, especially given the U.S. market’s current technical indicators. Although the market has been on a 12-year bull run, it is still vulnerable to a steep correction, or worse, a bear market. That is why it’s more important than ever to do the basic research (i.e. study balance sheets and stock charts).<blockquote>对我来说，这意味着要减少一些头寸，尤其是考虑到美国市场目前的技术指标。尽管市场已经经历了 12 年的牛市，但仍然容易出现大幅回调，或者更糟的是，出现熊市。这就是为什么做基础研究（即研究资产负债表和股票图表）比以往任何时候都更加重要。</blockquote>For short-term traders, here are what some solid technical indicators are saying now about the U.S. market as of the April 8 close.<blockquote>对于短期交易者来说，以下是截至 4 月 8 日收盘时一些可靠的技术指标对美国市场的看法。</blockquote>Moving averages:&nbsp;Bullish. The S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.42%is on a tear — well-above its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. According to moving averages, all systems are “go.”<blockquote>均线：看涨。标准普尔 500SPX 指数上涨 0.42%，远高于 50 日、100 日和 200 日移动平均线。根据移动平均线，所有系统都是 “go”。</blockquote>RSI (relative strength indicator):&nbsp;Overbought. RSI, which measures overbought/oversold conditions, is telling us the market is getting close to the danger zone. When RSI hits 70 or higher, it is a danger sign. By the way, the S&amp;P 500’s weekly RSI is currently at 69.14. Consider this: In less than three weeks (since March 25), the S&amp;P 500 has moved higher by about 250 points.&nbsp;The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.17%RSI is 70.86, while the NasdaqCOMP,+1.03%is at 63.73.<blockquote>RSI（相对强度指标）：超买。衡量超买/超卖状况的RSI告诉我们市场正在接近危险区。当RSI达到70或更高时，这是一个危险信号。顺便说一下，标普500的每周 RSI 指数目前为 69.14。考虑一下：在不到三周的时间里（自3月25日以来），标普500已经上涨了约250点。道琼斯工业平均指数JIA，+0.17%RSI为70.86，而纳斯达克COMP，+1.03%为63.73。</blockquote>If the market keeps rising, short-term risks rise. Remember that markets or stocks can remain overbought or oversold for long time periods. For example, right now some individual stocks have RSI levels of 90 or higher, and yet, they are not falling. RSI is best used as a clue, but not to time the market.<blockquote>如果市场持续上涨，短期风险就会上升。请记住，市场或股票可能会长期保持超买或超卖状态。例如，目前一些个股的RSI水平为90或更高，但它们并没有下跌。RSI 最好用作线索，但不能用来判断市场时机。</blockquote>MACD (Moving average convergence divergence):&nbsp;Neutral. Many short-term traders rely on the MACD to give reliable trading signals. At the moment, while MACD for the S&amp;P 500 is above its zero line (positive), it is also even with its nine-day Signal Line (neutral).&nbsp;At the moment, MACD is not giving a clear signal for the S&amp;P 500. Meanwhile, MACD for the Dow is bullish (MACD above zero line and nine-day signal line) and is neutral for the Nasdaq.<blockquote>MACD（移动平均收敛发散）：中立。许多短线交易者依靠MACD给出可靠的交易信号。目前，虽然标普500的MACD高于其零线（阳性），但它也与其九日信号线（中性）持平。目前，MACD并没有给标普500一个明确的信号。与此同时，道琼斯指数的MACD看涨（MACD高于零线和九日信号线），纳斯达克指数中性。</blockquote>VIX (CBOE Volatility Index):&nbsp;Showing no fear. The VIX,VIX,-1.22%which measures the implied volatility of the S&amp;P 500, has been falling for months, and is in the basement (it’s currently just under 17.0). This tells us there is low volatility and little fear. Few expect anything bad to happen to the stock market, and if stocks slide, many believe the market “will come back.” Only Mr. Market knows if this is true.<blockquote>VIX（芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数）：没有表现出恐惧。衡量标普500隐含波动性的 VIX,VIX,-1.22% 指数几个月来一直在下跌，目前处于底部（目前略低于 17.0）。这告诉我们波动性低，恐惧少。很少有人预计股市会发生任何不好的事情，如果股市下滑，许多人认为市场 “会反弹”。只有先生。市场知道这是不是真的。</blockquote>Bottom line: If you are a long-term investor, Lynch’s methods and ideas are excellent. If there is a bear-market hiccup, use the opportunity to buy shares of stock or indexes that you have researched.<blockquote>一句话： 如果你是长期投资者，林奇的方法和想法非常出色。如果出现熊市打嗝，利用这个机会购买你研究过的股票或指数。</blockquote>If you are a short-term trader, there are clear warning signs that the U.S. market is too good to be true. Most importantly, don’t own anything you don’t understand, or that you got from a tip from a neighbor or a tout on TV. And be wary about buying on margin.<blockquote>如果你是短期交易者，有明显的警告信号表明美国市场好得令人难以置信。最重要的是，不要拥有任何你不懂的东西，或者从邻居的小费或电视上的吹捧中得到的东西。并警惕保证金购买。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-short-term-signals-are-bullish-but-peter-lynchs-long-term-investing-advice-still-applies-11617920319?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-short-term-signals-are-bullish-but-peter-lynchs-long-term-investing-advice-still-applies-11617920319?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131825246","content_text":"Legendary fund manager said to buy what you know and that matters in this trigger-happy market.As a freelance writer and author, I’ve been fortunate to have interviewed many stock-market gurus over the years. One of the most memorable was with the legendary Peter Lynch, the former Fidelity Investments mutual fund manager. Years ago for an article, I spoke to him about one of his favorite subjects: Helping young people learn to invest.Do your researchLynch popularized the idea to invest in what you know — meaning to own shares of the companies that you are familiar with. He wrote three bestselling books on his ideas, including actually going in person to observe what people were buying first-hand.Lynch was famous for visiting the companies that he wanted to buy stock in. For example, before buying shares in an automobile stock, Lynch would go to the dealer showroom, converse with the salespeople, and check out the inventory.His advice, while sounding simplistic, is actually brilliant. After all, most people spend more time and effort researching buying a new refrigerator than a stock. I made that mistake when I first starting investing, sinking $50,000 into shares of a Texas cell phone company that I had never even heard about. Why? Because an acquaintance who knew more than I did about the stock market said I should. “You can double your money,” he promised. Famous last words.Instead of doubling my money, I lost half of it within months when the company nearly went bankrupt after some questionable accounting maneuvers. It was also the first and last time I ever bought stocks on margin.Using margin, the broker allowed me to use my original $25,000 to buy another $25,000 worth of stock (2-1 margin). When the stock plunged, I not only lost money on my original investment, I also owed the brokerage for the money I borrowed. Mismanaging margin is one of the ways that many investors get into trouble when their stocks go against them.Study balance sheets and stock chartsHad I followed Lynch’s advice and done some basic research, I would have discovered that the so-called cell phone company was a scam. It was being promoted by fake press releases and inflated posts on social media.In hindsight, I could have flown to Texas and visited the company. I would have discovered that it had only two employees. It would have been a lot cheaper to fly there than lose $25,000. I also could have studied the company’s balance sheet, looked at a stock chart, and studied its earnings reports. It sounds like common sense, but think of how many people buy stocks every day without doing the most basic research, what is referred to as exercising “due diligence.” Others call it “doing your homework.”How Lynch handled bear marketsFrom my interview with Lynch, I learned that he doesn’t make predictions. “I have no idea what the market will do over the next one or two years,” he told me. “What I do know is that if interest rates go up, inflation will go up and in the near term the stock market will go down. I also know that once every 18 months the market has a decline of 10%. These are called corrections. We could easily have a 10% correction. Perhaps one out of three of these corrections turns into a 20% to 25 % correction. These are called bear markets.”Lynch took market corrections in stride, including bear markets. Although he disliked bear markets since he was a long-only manager and hated losing money when one occurred, he didn’t panic. “If you understand what companies you own and who their competitors are,” Lynch said, “you’re in good shape. You don’t panic if the market goes down and the stock goes down. If you don’t understand what you own and don’t understand what a company does and it falls by half, what should you do? If you haven’t done your research, you might as well call a psychic hotline for investment advice.”I learned from Lynch that although bear markets are inevitable, they cannot be predicted. That is why before one occurs, you must evaluate what stocks or funds you own. If you are confident about your investments, you won’t get shaken out.For me, it means reducing some of my positions, especially given the U.S. market’s current technical indicators. Although the market has been on a 12-year bull run, it is still vulnerable to a steep correction, or worse, a bear market. That is why it’s more important than ever to do the basic research (i.e. study balance sheets and stock charts).For short-term traders, here are what some solid technical indicators are saying now about the U.S. market as of the April 8 close.Moving averages: Bullish. The S&P 500SPX,+0.42%is on a tear — well-above its 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages. According to moving averages, all systems are “go.”RSI (relative strength indicator): Overbought. RSI, which measures overbought/oversold conditions, is telling us the market is getting close to the danger zone. When RSI hits 70 or higher, it is a danger sign. By the way, the S&P 500’s weekly RSI is currently at 69.14. Consider this: In less than three weeks (since March 25), the S&P 500 has moved higher by about 250 points. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.17%RSI is 70.86, while the NasdaqCOMP,+1.03%is at 63.73.If the market keeps rising, short-term risks rise. Remember that markets or stocks can remain overbought or oversold for long time periods. For example, right now some individual stocks have RSI levels of 90 or higher, and yet, they are not falling. RSI is best used as a clue, but not to time the market.MACD (Moving average convergence divergence): Neutral. Many short-term traders rely on the MACD to give reliable trading signals. At the moment, while MACD for the S&P 500 is above its zero line (positive), it is also even with its nine-day Signal Line (neutral). At the moment, MACD is not giving a clear signal for the S&P 500. Meanwhile, MACD for the Dow is bullish (MACD above zero line and nine-day signal line) and is neutral for the Nasdaq.VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): Showing no fear. The VIX,VIX,-1.22%which measures the implied volatility of the S&P 500, has been falling for months, and is in the basement (it’s currently just under 17.0). This tells us there is low volatility and little fear. Few expect anything bad to happen to the stock market, and if stocks slide, many believe the market “will come back.” Only Mr. Market knows if this is true.Bottom line: If you are a long-term investor, Lynch’s methods and ideas are excellent. If there is a bear-market hiccup, use the opportunity to buy shares of stock or indexes that you have researched.If you are a short-term trader, there are clear warning signs that the U.S. market is too good to be true. Most importantly, don’t own anything you don’t understand, or that you got from a tip from a neighbor or a tout on TV. And be wary about buying on margin.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1609,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/348243846"}