Will it rise_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-04-09

Will it rise

What's next for the dollar after upswing confounds analysts?<blockquote>在上涨令分析师困惑之后，美元的下一步是什么？</blockquote>

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The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the currency against six major rivals, has so farbounced nearly 3%this year following adecline of 6.7%in 2020. In the first quarter alone, the dollarclimbed 7.2%against the Japanese yen, while the euro in March dropped the most in three years against the greenback.<blockquote>进入2021年，几乎所有卖方分析师都表示美元今年将走弱，但美元却出人意料地升值。衡量货币兑六个主要竞争对手的ICE美元指数继2020年下跌6.7%后，今年迄今已反弹近3%。仅在第一季度，美元兑日元就上涨了7.2%，而欧元兑美元在3月份创下了三年来的最大跌幅。</blockquote>What happened?&nbsp;Expectations of a weakened dollar was based on loose monetary conditions in the U.S., inflation expectations, rising public debt and a robust global economic recovery. However, signs now suggest the U.S. will outperform other major economies as Europe struggles with its COVID-19 vaccine rollout. A robust U.S. economic performance could also mean divergence in monetary policy, with the Fed tightening monetary policy relatively more quickly than the ECB. \"That could see the pace of dollar appreciation accelerate this year,\" BofAwrotein a recent research note.<blockquote>怎么回事？美元走软的预期是基于美国宽松的货币条件、通胀预期、公共债务上升和全球经济强劲复苏。然而，现在有迹象表明，随着欧洲努力推出COVID-19疫苗，美国的表现将优于其他主要经济体。强劲的美国经济表现也可能意味着货币政策的分化，美联储收紧货币政策的速度相对快于欧洲央行。美国银行在最近的一份研究报告中表示：“这可能会导致今年美元升值步伐加快。”</blockquote>While some analysts acknowledge they were quick to make forecasts, others aren't giving in. \"We do not think that the long-term outlook for the dollar has changed,\"saidCalvin Tse, a currency analyst at Citi, who still feels the currency could fall as much as 20%. However, Goldman Sachs this weekcanceled its short callon the dollar, saying after a \"choppy few months we are closing our recommended dollar short trade.'<blockquote>虽然一些分析师承认他们很快就做出了预测，但其他人并没有屈服。花旗货币分析师Calvin Tse表示：“我们认为美元的长期前景没有改变。”他仍然认为美元可能下跌多达20%。然而，高盛本周取消了美元空头头寸，称在经历了“动荡的几个月后，我们将关闭建议的美元空头交易。”</blockquote>Outlook:&nbsp;The next move for the greenback may depend on whether the Fed will let the economy run hot. Last month, policymakers signaled expectations for interest rates that be kept at near zero through 2023, but some money markets are already positioning for a rate rise as soon as next year. Others suggest that even if the Fed would move early, the relationship has changed, as well as the currency's traditional role with equities. Once upon a time, a weaker dollar was seen as a boon for U.S. equities, but a stronger buck didn't prevent the continuous stock market highs that were notched in the first quarter.<blockquote>展望：美元的下一步走势可能取决于美联储是否会让经济过热。上个月，政策制定者表示预计到2023年利率将保持在接近零的水平，但一些货币市场已经为最快明年加息做好了准备。其他人则认为，即使美联储提前采取行动，这种关系以及货币与股市的传统角色也已经发生了变化。曾几何时，美元走软被视为美国股市的福音，但美元走强并没有阻止股市在第一季度创下的持续高点。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's next for the dollar after upswing confounds analysts?<blockquote>在上涨令分析师困惑之后，美元的下一步是什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's next for the dollar after upswing confounds analysts?<blockquote>在上涨令分析师困惑之后，美元的下一步是什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-04-09 13:43\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nGoing into 2021, almost every sell side analyst suggested the dollar would weaken this year, but the U.S. currency hassurprisingly appreciated instead. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the currency against six major rivals, has so farbounced nearly 3%this year following adecline of 6.7%in 2020. In the first quarter alone, the dollarclimbed 7.2%against the Japanese yen, while the euro in March dropped the most in three years against the greenback.<blockquote>进入2021年，几乎所有卖方分析师都表示美元今年将走弱，但美元却出人意料地升值。衡量货币兑六个主要竞争对手的ICE美元指数继2020年下跌6.7%后，今年迄今已反弹近3%。仅在第一季度，美元兑日元就上涨了7.2%，而欧元兑美元在3月份创下了三年来的最大跌幅。</blockquote>What happened?&nbsp;Expectations of a weakened dollar was based on loose monetary conditions in the U.S., inflation expectations, rising public debt and a robust global economic recovery. However, signs now suggest the U.S. will outperform other major economies as Europe struggles with its COVID-19 vaccine rollout. A robust U.S. economic performance could also mean divergence in monetary policy, with the Fed tightening monetary policy relatively more quickly than the ECB. \"That could see the pace of dollar appreciation accelerate this year,\" BofAwrotein a recent research note.<blockquote>怎么回事？美元走软的预期是基于美国宽松的货币条件、通胀预期、公共债务上升和全球经济强劲复苏。然而，现在有迹象表明，随着欧洲努力推出COVID-19疫苗，美国的表现将优于其他主要经济体。强劲的美国经济表现也可能意味着货币政策的分化，美联储收紧货币政策的速度相对快于欧洲央行。美国银行在最近的一份研究报告中表示：“这可能会导致今年美元升值步伐加快。”</blockquote>While some analysts acknowledge they were quick to make forecasts, others aren't giving in. \"We do not think that the long-term outlook for the dollar has changed,\"saidCalvin Tse, a currency analyst at Citi, who still feels the currency could fall as much as 20%. However, Goldman Sachs this weekcanceled its short callon the dollar, saying after a \"choppy few months we are closing our recommended dollar short trade.'<blockquote>虽然一些分析师承认他们很快就做出了预测，但其他人并没有屈服。花旗货币分析师Calvin Tse表示：“我们认为美元的长期前景没有改变。”他仍然认为美元可能下跌多达20%。然而，高盛本周取消了美元空头头寸，称在经历了“动荡的几个月后，我们将关闭建议的美元空头交易。”</blockquote>Outlook:&nbsp;The next move for the greenback may depend on whether the Fed will let the economy run hot. Last month, policymakers signaled expectations for interest rates that be kept at near zero through 2023, but some money markets are already positioning for a rate rise as soon as next year. Others suggest that even if the Fed would move early, the relationship has changed, as well as the currency's traditional role with equities. Once upon a time, a weaker dollar was seen as a boon for U.S. equities, but a stronger buck didn't prevent the continuous stock market highs that were notched in the first quarter.<blockquote>展望：美元的下一步走势可能取决于美联储是否会让经济过热。上个月，政策制定者表示预计到2023年利率将保持在接近零的水平，但一些货币市场已经为最快明年加息做好了准备。其他人则认为，即使美联储提前采取行动，这种关系以及货币与股市的传统角色也已经发生了变化。曾几何时，美元走软被视为美国股市的福音，但美元走强并没有阻止股市在第一季度创下的持续高点。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3680584-whats-next-for-the-dollar-after-upswing-confounds-analysts\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3680584-whats-next-for-the-dollar-after-upswing-confounds-analysts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139015410","content_text":"Going into 2021, almost every sell side analyst suggested the dollar would weaken this year, but the U.S. currency hassurprisingly appreciated instead. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the currency against six major rivals, has so farbounced nearly 3%this year following adecline of 6.7%in 2020. In the first quarter alone, the dollarclimbed 7.2%against the Japanese yen, while the euro in March dropped the most in three years against the greenback.What happened? Expectations of a weakened dollar was based on loose monetary conditions in the U.S., inflation expectations, rising public debt and a robust global economic recovery. However, signs now suggest the U.S. will outperform other major economies as Europe struggles with its COVID-19 vaccine rollout. A robust U.S. economic performance could also mean divergence in monetary policy, with the Fed tightening monetary policy relatively more quickly than the ECB. \"That could see the pace of dollar appreciation accelerate this year,\" BofAwrotein a recent research note.While some analysts acknowledge they were quick to make forecasts, others aren't giving in. \"We do not think that the long-term outlook for the dollar has changed,\"saidCalvin Tse, a currency analyst at Citi, who still feels the currency could fall as much as 20%. However, Goldman Sachs this weekcanceled its short callon the dollar, saying after a \"choppy few months we are closing our recommended dollar short trade.'Outlook: The next move for the greenback may depend on whether the Fed will let the economy run hot. Last month, policymakers signaled expectations for interest rates that be kept at near zero through 2023, but some money markets are already positioning for a rate rise as soon as next year. Others suggest that even if the Fed would move early, the relationship has changed, as well as the currency's traditional role with equities. Once upon a time, a weaker dollar was seen as a boon for U.S. equities, but a stronger buck didn't prevent the continuous stock market highs that were notched in the first quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1654,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/348407645"}