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2021-03-21

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Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":350771298,"tweetId":"350771298","gmtCreate":1616295189114,"gmtModify":1631892197325,"author":{"id":3576105245982567,"idStr":"3576105245982567","authorId":3576105245982567,"authorIdStr":"3576105245982567","name":"pud","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa28bec92e6d73dc276ecf82955ada9a","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like comment!&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like comment!&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Like comment!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350771298","repostId":1199154789,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199154789","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616164372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199154789?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199154789","media":"zerohedge","summary":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on ","content":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.<blockquote>正如本文所暗示和深入讨论的那样，在伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)等进步民主党人的政治压力下，美联储决定让临时补充杠杆率(SLR)豁免如期于3月31日（规则变更一周年）到期。</blockquote>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption.\"<blockquote>联邦银行监管机构今天宣布，2020年5月15日发布的存款机构补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变更将于2021年3月31日如期到期。鉴于新冠肺炎事件，这一临时变化是为了为存款机构向家庭和企业提供信贷提供灵活性。这一结果是前纽约联储大师Zoltan Pozsar（再次）正确预测的结果，他跟随FOMC表示，“事实上，美联储实际上是先发制人地做出了这一调整——目前没有使用o/n RRP工具，因此没有能力限制，而回购和票据收益率尚未为负——暗示美联储正在为SLR豁免的结束“铺路”.\"</blockquote>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:<blockquote>美联储深知这将是市场的一个非常热门的问题，因此发表了以下声明以缓解交易员的紧张情绪，并指出，虽然SLR特殊待遇将于3月31日到期，但美联储正在“邀请公众就几项潜在的SLR修改发表评论”。此外，”随着时间的推移，董事会可能需要解决SLR当前的设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力”——简而言之，如果收益率飙升，美联储将立即重新引入SLR：</blockquote>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...<blockquote>美联储周五宣布，银行控股公司补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变化将于3月31日如期到期。此外，董事会将很快就调整SLR的措施征求意见。董事会将采取适当行动，确保SLR的任何变化不会削弱银行资本要求的整体实力。为了缓解COVID-19大流行造成的国债市场压力并促进对家庭和企业的贷款，董事会去年暂时修改了SLR，将美国国债和央行储备排除在外。从那时起，国债市场已经稳定下来。然而，由于最近中央银行储备供应和国债发行的增长，理事会可能需要随着时间的推移解决SLR的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力。为了确保SLR（2014年作为额外资本要求而设立）在准备金较高的环境下保持有效，董事会将很快就几项潜在的SLR修改征求公众意见。该提案和评论将有助于与财政部和其他监管机构就未来工作进行持续讨论，以确保国债市场的弹性。尽管美联储的WOD令人宽慰，在为有利的结果做好准备后，美联储令人失望的声明几乎不是交易员所希望的消息，股市暴跌...</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...<blockquote>债券收益率飙升...</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...<blockquote>...而摩根大通的股票是受SLR救济影响最大的银行（正如昨天在“面对摩根大通的杠杆救济威胁”中所指出的）...</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.<blockquote>....萎靡不振。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.<blockquote>如果您一直生活在岩石下，以下是您应该关心SLR决定的原因：首先，对于那些错过了我们关于这个问题的入门知识的人来说，摩根大通的一些背景（具有讽刺意味的是，这是一家从美联储损失最大的银行）的决定）底线是，如果没有SLR救济，银行可能不得不去杠杆化、筹集新资本、停止回购、出售优先股、拒绝存款并普遍减少准备金（不一定是所有这些，也不是按这个顺序），就像美联储向市场注入数千亿美元一样随着财政部耗尽其TGA账户。</blockquote>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.<blockquote>美联储资产负债表的大幅扩张意味着美联储银行持有的银行准备金也同样大幅增长。监管救济到期将使8个GSIB的杠杆敞口增加约2.1万亿美元。此外，TGA的减少和持续的量化宽松可能会在2021年为系统再增加约2.35万亿美元的存款。虽然3月31日豁免到期不会对GSIB产生直接影响，但全年杠杆资产的持续增加将增加长期债务(LTD)和优先要求。在这里，摩根大通持乐观观点，并写道“即使是‘最坏’的发行情况也是非常可控的，LTD需要350亿美元来满足TLAC要求，优先需求为150-200亿美元，以将全行业SLR维持在5.6%。</blockquote>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).<blockquote>银行实体的限制更大，其杠杆敞口增加的能力约为7,650亿美元，SLR为6.2%。”高盛的观点更令人不安：该行估计，在持续的量化宽松制度下，储备能力将出现约2万亿美元的缺口，主要是银行无法接受的存款形式，作为正在进行的量化宽松的一部分（高盛对SLR困境的全面理解更是如此）。</blockquote>So what happens next?<blockquote>那么接下来会发生什么呢？</blockquote>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market:<blockquote>针对这个话题，昨天Curvature的Scott Skyrm写道“最大的银行享有更大的资产负债表，但华盛顿有政治因素反对延长豁免....以下是几种情况及其对回购市场的影响：</blockquote>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...<blockquote>豁免延长3个月或6个月——对回购市场没有影响。它已经完全定价了。准备金的豁免继续，但国债的豁免结束。由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性会增加。储备和国库的豁免均终止。同上。换句话说，Skyrm持相对悲观的观点，警告称“由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。”此外，随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性可能会增加...</blockquote>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:<blockquote>也许有点太严厉了？上周，摩根大通为SLR制定了5种情景，其中两种预测SLR救济将于3月31日结束，具体如下：</blockquote>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates 4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever Impact on BanksRatesFront-End RatesGoing back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.\"<blockquote>3.纾困3月31日结束银行全面融资对银行利率的影响前端利率4.纾困3月31日结束，银行增资去杠杆对银行利率的影响前端利率回到Zoltan，让我们回想一下，这位回购大师还警告说，“结束准备金和国债在SLR计算中的豁免可能意味着美国银行将拒绝保证金（而不是国债）的存款和准备金，为市场留出更多空间。做市活动，这些资金流动将进一步增加来自TGA提款的货币基金流入。\"</blockquote>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.<blockquote>更重要的是，Zoltan预计回购或更广泛的市场不会出现广泛的混乱，相反，正如他在周二的一份报告中解释的那样，他对SLR已经产生的微不足道的影响（如果它被消除，将会产生）提供了更良性的看法。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"<blockquote>如何确定Zoltan的良性观点是否正确？他在报告的最后写道，“鉴于我们到6月底FRA-OIS利差为零至负的看涨期权是基于SLR延期的结束以及美联储将尝试解决数量问题的假设价格而不是数量，今天的调整意味着FRA-OIS不会一直跌至零或负值。”</blockquote>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.<blockquote>这里的FRA-OIS将取决于外汇掉期相对于OIS的交易紧张程度，但以远低于零利率交易的国库券不再是一种风险...虽然账单偶尔会跌入负值，但到目前为止，它们避免了全面陷入NIRP，这可能只是市场正在等待的积极信号，以缓解与SLR豁免突然且基本上出乎意料的结束相关的紧张情绪。</blockquote>* *&nbsp; *<blockquote>** *</blockquote>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" asthe SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing.<blockquote>最后，对于那些好奇对市场的直接影响会是什么的人来说，国民西敏寺银行策略师布莱克·格温(Blake Gwinn)写道，美联储宣布银行监管豁免将于本月底到期，“确实是穿针引线”，缓解了人们对银行监管豁免的担忧。对市场的潜在长期影响SLR承诺解决补充杠杆率的当前设计和校准问题，以防止紧张局势的发展，从而“结束了它，但化解了许多下意识的市场反应”.</blockquote>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”<blockquote>格温说：“我从来不担心银行第一天就会吐出国债或回购提款或类似的情况。”“我担心的是，从长远来看”，随着准备金继续上升，SLR是否会“成为一个麻烦并拖累国债和利差”格温总结道，通过这份声明，美联储“真正解决这些恐惧，基本上是说，‘别担心，我们正在努力’。”</blockquote>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.<blockquote>好吧，随着收益率在早期四女巫交易中飙升至HOD，市场似乎确实对美联储的行动持怀疑态度。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Disappoints Market, Lets SLR Relief Expire: What Happens Next<blockquote>美联储令市场失望，让SLR救助到期：接下来会发生什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-03-19 22:32\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAs washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.<blockquote>正如本文所暗示和深入讨论的那样，在伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)等进步民主党人的政治压力下，美联储决定让临时补充杠杆率(SLR)豁免如期于3月31日（规则变更一周年）到期。</blockquote>The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b822960da59d651f093b5113cd0c3fd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption.\"<blockquote>联邦银行监管机构今天宣布，2020年5月15日发布的存款机构补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变更将于2021年3月31日如期到期。鉴于新冠肺炎事件，这一临时变化是为了为存款机构向家庭和企业提供信贷提供灵活性。这一结果是前纽约联储大师Zoltan Pozsar（再次）正确预测的结果，他跟随FOMC表示，“事实上，美联储实际上是先发制人地做出了这一调整——目前没有使用o/n RRP工具，因此没有能力限制，而回购和票据收益率尚未为负——暗示美联储正在为SLR豁免的结束“铺路”.\"</blockquote>Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:<blockquote>美联储深知这将是市场的一个非常热门的问题，因此发表了以下声明以缓解交易员的紧张情绪，并指出，虽然SLR特殊待遇将于3月31日到期，但美联储正在“邀请公众就几项潜在的SLR修改发表评论”。此外，”随着时间的推移，董事会可能需要解决SLR当前的设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力”——简而言之，如果收益率飙升，美联储将立即重新引入SLR：</blockquote>The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...<blockquote>美联储周五宣布，银行控股公司补充杠杆率（SLR）的临时变化将于3月31日如期到期。此外，董事会将很快就调整SLR的措施征求意见。董事会将采取适当行动，确保SLR的任何变化不会削弱银行资本要求的整体实力。为了缓解COVID-19大流行造成的国债市场压力并促进对家庭和企业的贷款，董事会去年暂时修改了SLR，将美国国债和央行储备排除在外。从那时起，国债市场已经稳定下来。然而，由于最近中央银行储备供应和国债发行的增长，理事会可能需要随着时间的推移解决SLR的当前设计和校准问题，以防止出现既限制经济增长又破坏金融稳定的压力。为了确保SLR（2014年作为额外资本要求而设立）在准备金较高的环境下保持有效，董事会将很快就几项潜在的SLR修改征求公众意见。该提案和评论将有助于与财政部和其他监管机构就未来工作进行持续讨论，以确保国债市场的弹性。尽管美联储的WOD令人宽慰，在为有利的结果做好准备后，美联储令人失望的声明几乎不是交易员所希望的消息，股市暴跌...</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c341c3843a5031cd1599c2c89e198050\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Bond yields spiked...<blockquote>债券收益率飙升...</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14173c1ce587fb45efe4c30ecc1dfbab\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")...<blockquote>...而摩根大通的股票是受SLR救济影响最大的银行（正如昨天在“面对摩根大通的杠杆救济威胁”中所指出的）...</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32811183fba3dbddf1c440836298c7f3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">.... slumped.<blockquote>....萎靡不振。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fba41463f15e79d2b8436cdd6a526fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.<blockquote>如果您一直生活在岩石下，以下是您应该关心SLR决定的原因：首先，对于那些错过了我们关于这个问题的入门知识的人来说，摩根大通的一些背景（具有讽刺意味的是，这是一家从美联储损失最大的银行）的决定）底线是，如果没有SLR救济，银行可能不得不去杠杆化、筹集新资本、停止回购、出售优先股、拒绝存款并普遍减少准备金（不一定是所有这些，也不是按这个顺序），就像美联储向市场注入数千亿美元一样随着财政部耗尽其TGA账户。</blockquote>The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392342c2f3e1dd008b2276172a9b3ecf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.<blockquote>美联储资产负债表的大幅扩张意味着美联储银行持有的银行准备金也同样大幅增长。监管救济到期将使8个GSIB的杠杆敞口增加约2.1万亿美元。此外，TGA的减少和持续的量化宽松可能会在2021年为系统再增加约2.35万亿美元的存款。虽然3月31日豁免到期不会对GSIB产生直接影响，但全年杠杆资产的持续增加将增加长期债务(LTD)和优先要求。在这里，摩根大通持乐观观点，并写道“即使是‘最坏’的发行情况也是非常可控的，LTD需要350亿美元来满足TLAC要求，优先需求为150-200亿美元，以将全行业SLR维持在5.6%。</blockquote>The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).<blockquote>银行实体的限制更大，其杠杆敞口增加的能力约为7,650亿美元，SLR为6.2%。”高盛的观点更令人不安：该行估计，在持续的量化宽松制度下，储备能力将出现约2万亿美元的缺口，主要是银行无法接受的存款形式，作为正在进行的量化宽松的一部分（高盛对SLR困境的全面理解更是如此）。</blockquote>So what happens next?<blockquote>那么接下来会发生什么呢？</blockquote>Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market:<blockquote>针对这个话题，昨天Curvature的Scott Skyrm写道“最大的银行享有更大的资产负债表，但华盛顿有政治因素反对延长豁免....以下是几种情况及其对回购市场的影响：</blockquote>The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...<blockquote>豁免延长3个月或6个月——对回购市场没有影响。它已经完全定价了。准备金的豁免继续，但国债的豁免结束。由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性会增加。储备和国库的豁免均终止。同上。换句话说，Skyrm持相对悲观的观点，警告称“由于大型银行是回购市场上最大的现金提供者，因此进入市场的现金减少，回购利率上升。”此外，随着回购资产从最大的银行转移到其他回购市场参与者，波动性可能会增加...</blockquote>Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:<blockquote>也许有点太严厉了？上周，摩根大通为SLR制定了5种情景，其中两种预测SLR救济将于3月31日结束，具体如下：</blockquote>3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates 4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital &amp; de-lever Impact on BanksRatesFront-End RatesGoing back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.\"<blockquote>3.纾困3月31日结束银行全面融资对银行利率的影响前端利率4.纾困3月31日结束，银行增资去杠杆对银行利率的影响前端利率回到Zoltan，让我们回想一下，这位回购大师还警告说，“结束准备金和国债在SLR计算中的豁免可能意味着美国银行将拒绝保证金（而不是国债）的存款和准备金，为市场留出更多空间。做市活动，这些资金流动将进一步增加来自TGA提款的货币基金流入。\"</blockquote>More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.<blockquote>更重要的是，Zoltan预计回购或更广泛的市场不会出现广泛的混乱，相反，正如他在周二的一份报告中解释的那样，他对SLR已经产生的微不足道的影响（如果它被消除，将会产生）提供了更良性的看法。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caeeb2b1290e084832f29d61cea6a90b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"<blockquote>如何确定Zoltan的良性观点是否正确？他在报告的最后写道，“鉴于我们到6月底FRA-OIS利差为零至负的看涨期权是基于SLR延期的结束以及美联储将尝试解决数量问题的假设价格而不是数量，今天的调整意味着FRA-OIS不会一直跌至零或负值。”</blockquote>FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.<blockquote>这里的FRA-OIS将取决于外汇掉期相对于OIS的交易紧张程度，但以远低于零利率交易的国库券不再是一种风险...虽然账单偶尔会跌入负值，但到目前为止，它们避免了全面陷入NIRP，这可能只是市场正在等待的积极信号，以缓解与SLR豁免突然且基本上出乎意料的结束相关的紧张情绪。</blockquote>* *&nbsp; *<blockquote>** *</blockquote>Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" asthe SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing.<blockquote>最后，对于那些好奇对市场的直接影响会是什么的人来说，国民西敏寺银行策略师布莱克·格温(Blake Gwinn)写道，美联储宣布银行监管豁免将于本月底到期，“确实是穿针引线”，缓解了人们对银行监管豁免的担忧。对市场的潜在长期影响SLR承诺解决补充杠杆率的当前设计和校准问题，以防止紧张局势的发展，从而“结束了它，但化解了许多下意识的市场反应”.</blockquote>“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”<blockquote>格温说：“我从来不担心银行第一天就会吐出国债或回购提款或类似的情况。”“我担心的是，从长远来看”，随着准备金继续上升，SLR是否会“成为一个麻烦并拖累国债和利差”格温总结道，通过这份声明，美联储“真正解决这些恐惧，基本上是说，‘别担心，我们正在努力’。”</blockquote>Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.<blockquote>好吧，随着收益率在早期四女巫交易中飙升至HOD，市场似乎确实对美联储的行动持怀疑态度。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bopnds-tank-after-fed-lets-slr-relief-expire","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199154789","content_text":"As washinted at, and discussed in depth here,the Fed decided - under political pressure from progressive Democrats such asElizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown- to let the temporary Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption expire as scheduled on March 31, the one year anniversary of the rule change.The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.This outcome is theone (again) correctly predictedby former NY Fed guru Zoltan Pozsar who following the FOMC said that \"the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet –suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption.\"Knowing well this would be a very hot button issue for the market, the Fed published thefollowing statementto ease trader nerves, noting that while the SLR special treatment will expire on March 31, the Fed is \"inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications\" and furthermore, \"Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability\" - in short, if yields spike, the Fed will re-introduce the SLR without delay:The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced that the temporary change to its supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for bank holding companies will expire as scheduled on March 31. Additionally, the Board will shortly seek comment on measures to adjust the SLR. The Board will take appropriate actions to assure that any changes to the SLR do not erode the overall strength of bank capital requirements.To ease strains in the Treasury market resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and to promote lending to households and businesses, the Board temporarily modified the SLR last year to exclude U.S. Treasury securities and central bank reserves. Since that time, the Treasury market has stabilized. However, because of recent growth in the supply of central bank reserves and the issuance of Treasury securities, the Board may need to address the current design and calibration of the SLR over time to prevent strains from developing that could both constrain economic growth and undermine financial stability.To ensure that the SLR—which was established in 2014 as an additional capital requirement—remains effective in an environment of higher reserves, the Board will soon be inviting public comment on several potential SLR modifications.The proposal and comments will contribute to ongoing discussions with the Department of the Treasury and other regulators on future work to ensure the resiliency of the Treasury market.The Fed's soothing wods notwithstanding,having been primed for a favorable outcome, the Fed's disappointing announcement was hardly the news traders were hoping for and stocks tumbled...Bond yields spiked...... while the stock of JPM, which is the most exposed bank to SLR relief (as noted yesterday in \"Facing Up To JP Morgan's Leverage Relief Threats\")....... slumped.In case you've been living under a rock, here's why you should care about the SLR decision: First, for those whomissed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM (ironically the one bank that has the most to lose from the Fed's decision) the bottom line is that without SLR relief,banks may have to delever, raise new capital, halt buybacks, sell preferred stock, turn down deposits and generally push back on reserves (not necessarily all of these, and not in that order) just as the Fed is injecting hundreds of billions of reserves into the market as the Treasury depletes its TGA account.The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM takes an optimistic view and writes that\"even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%.The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.\"Goldman's take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman'sfull take of the SLR quandary).So what happens next?Addressing this topic, yesterday Curvature's Scott Skyrm wrote that \"the largest banks are enjoying much larger balance sheets, but there are political factors in Washington that are against an extension of the exemption.... Here are a couple of scenarios and their implications on the Repo market:The exemption is extended 3 months or 6 months - No impact on the Repo market. It's already fully priced-in.The exemption is continued for reserves, but ended for Treasurys. Since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise. Volatility increases as Repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants.The exemption is ended for both reserves and Treasurys. Same as above.In other words, Skyrm has a relatively downbeat view, warning that \"since large banks are the largest cash providers in the Repo market, less cash is intermediated into the market and Repo rates rise.\" Additionally, volatility is likely to increase as repo assets move from the largest banks to the other Repo market participants...Perhaps a bit too draconian? Well, last week, JPMorgan laid out 5 scenarios for SLR, of which two predicted the end of SLR relief on March 31, as follow:3. Relief ends March 31, banks fully raise capital Impact on BanksRatesFront-End Rates 4. Relief ends March 31, banks raise capital & de-lever Impact on BanksRatesFront-End RatesGoing back to Zoltan, let's recallthat the repo gurualso cautioned that \"ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities,and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.\"More importantly, Zoltan does not expect broad chaos in repo or broader markets, and instead provides a more benign view on the negligible impact the SLR has had (and will be if it is eliminated), as he explained in a note from Tuesday.How to determine if Zoltan's benign view is correct? He concluded his note by writing that \"given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.\"FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk...While Bills have occasionally dipped into the negative territory on occasion, so far they have avoided a fullblown plunge into NIRP, which may be just the positive sign the market is waiting for to ease the nerves associated with the sudden and largely unexpected end of the SLR exemption.* *  *Finally, for those curious what the immediate market impact will be, NatWest strategist Blake Gwinn writes that the Fed announcement that they’re letting regulatory exemptions for banks expire at the end of the month \"really threads the needle and \"assuages concerns about the potential long-term impact on the markets\" asthe SLR \"ends it but defuses a lot of the knee-jerk market reaction” by pledging to address the current design and calibration of the supplementary leverage ratio to prevent strains from developing.“I was never worried about a day-one bank puke of Treasuries or drawdown in repo or anything like that on no renewal,” Gwinn said. “My concern was the longer run,” like as reserves continue to rise, would the SLR “become a nuisance and drag on Treasuries and spreads” Gwinn concludes that with the statement, the Fed is\"really speaking to those fears and basically saying, ‘don’t worry, we are on it’.”Well, with yields spiking to HOD in early quad-witch trading, the market sure seems quite skeptical that the Fed is on anything.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/350771298"}