Ovaline
2021-03-24
Who is this fool!
AMC Entertainment Has a New Price Target: $0.01<blockquote>AMC院线设定新目标价：0.01美元</blockquote>
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In 2021, the pandem","content":"<p>Last year, uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus whipsawed the stock market. In 2021, the pandemic seems to have taken a back seat on Wall Street to a new phenomenon:the Reddit frenzy.</p><p><blockquote>去年，围绕冠状病毒的不确定性重创了股市。2021年，疫情似乎让位于华尔街的一种新现象：Reddit狂潮。</blockquote></p><p> In its simplest form, the Reddit frenzy involves retail investors -- mostly young and/or novice investors -- banding together to buy shares and out-of-the-money call options on heavily short-sold stocks. Short-sellers are investors who make money when stock prices decline. In many instances, institutional investors and hedge funds (i.e., the perceived-to-be \"big money\") are the biggest short-sellers.</p><p><blockquote>最简单的形式是，Reddit狂热涉及散户投资者（主要是年轻和/或新手投资者）联合起来购买股票和大量卖空股票的价外看涨期权期权。卖空者是在股价下跌时赚钱的投资者。在许多情况下，机构投资者和对冲基金（即被认为是“大资金”的人）是最大的卖空者。</blockquote></p><p> These Reddit traders have purchased stock and used leverage to effect a short squeeze in dozens of companies since mid-January. Since short-selling losses are potentially unlimited, ashort squeezecan send pessimists scurrying for the exit at the same time, which can exacerbate a runaway move to the upside in a heavily short-sold stock.</p><p><blockquote>自1月中旬以来，这些Reddit交易员购买了股票，并利用杠杆对数十家公司进行了轧空。由于卖空损失可能是无限的，所以空头挤压可能会同时派出悲观主义者仓促撤离，这可能会加剧卖空股票中出现的失控向上移动。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment is \"dramatically overvalued\"</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线被“严重高估”</blockquote></p><p> Although<b>GameStop</b> is the best-known Reddit play, its popular sidekick would certainly have to be movie theater operator<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC). Shares of AMC are higher by 557% on a year-to-date basis, through this past weekend.</p><p><blockquote>虽然<b>游戏驿站</b>是Reddit上最著名的游戏，它受欢迎的伙伴肯定是电影院运营商<b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）。截至上周末，AMC的股价今年迄今上涨了557%。</blockquote></p><p> But according to one analyst,AMC houses a lot of riskand could be in for a bumpy ride.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师表示，AMC存在很大风险，可能会遇到坎坷。</blockquote></p><p> Two weeks ago, equity analyst Rich Greenfield, who covers media and technology companies for LightShed Partners, initiated coverage on AMC Entertainment with a sell rating. Although sell ratings are fairly uncommon on Wall Street, it's Greenfield's 12-month price target that really stands out: $0.01. You're reading that correctly:<i>One cent</i>!</p><p><blockquote>两周前，为LightShed Partners研究媒体和科技公司的股票分析师Rich Greenfield首次对AMC院线进行了卖出评级。尽管卖出评级在华尔街相当罕见，但真正引人注目的是Greenfield的12个月目标价：0.01美元。你没看错：<i>一分钱</i>！</blockquote></p><p> Greenfield's thesis as to why AMC will lose nearly 100% of its value over the next year hits on a number of points. To begin with, he believes that AMC is over-levered and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) estimates are too rosy. Greenfield notes that the company is valued at 8 times debt-to-EBITDA, and believes it's unlikely the company will surpass $600 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2022. With little to no free cash flow, he doesn't believe AMC will be able to service its growing debt load.</p><p><blockquote>格林菲尔德关于为什么AMC在明年将损失近100%的价值的论点触及了很多要点。首先，他认为AMC杠杆率过高，其调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)预期过于乐观。Greenfield指出，该公司的估值为债务与EBITDA之比的8倍，并认为该公司2022年调整后EBITDA不太可能超过6亿美元。由于几乎没有自由现金流，他认为AMC无法偿还其不断增长的债务负担。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, Greenfield is skeptical about AMC's audience returning anytime soon. He notes that pandemic fears may persist and keep people away from theaters. Greenfield points to increased streaming usage, as well, as reason why the company could struggle. In other words, consumers could opt to stay home to watch select new releases, or the exclusivity window for theater operators could notably shrink.</p><p><blockquote>此外，格林菲尔德对AMC的观众很快回归持怀疑态度。他指出，对疫情的恐惧可能会持续存在，让人们远离剧院。格林菲尔德指出，流媒体使用量的增加也是该公司陷入困境的原因。换句话说，消费者可以选择呆在家里观看精选的新剧，或者影院运营商的独家窗口可能会明显缩小。</blockquote></p><p> Could AMC really fall 99.9% over the next year?</p><p><blockquote>AMC明年真的会下跌99.9%吗？</blockquote></p><p> The $64,000 question is: Could AMC's stock really become worthless within the next 12 months?</p><p><blockquote>价值64,000美元的问题是：AMC的股票真的会在未来12个月内变得一文不值吗？</blockquote></p><p> As much as Iview bankruptcy as a legitimate possibility for AMCand agree with much of Greenfield's analysis, it's unlikely that AMC reaches this price target within the next 12 months. The reason is simple: AMC has the power to sell common stock and potentially even issue more debt capital to raise money, should the need arise. Greenfield's price target only comes into play if AMC files for a Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization, which would likely wipe out retail investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Iview破产是AMC的合法可能性，并同意Greenfield的大部分分析，但AMC不太可能在未来12个月内达到这一价格目标。原因很简单：如果需要，AMC有权出售普通股，甚至可能发行更多债务资本来筹集资金。只有AMC根据美国破产法第11章申请破产重组，Greenfield的价格目标才会发挥作用，这可能会消灭散户投资者。</blockquote></p><p> However, I wouldn't discount the possibility of $0.01 being a realistic price target within the next two years for a number of reasons.</p><p><blockquote>然而，出于多种原因，我不会忽视0.01美元成为未来两年内现实价格目标的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> To start with, AMC recently claimed to have more than $1 billion in cash on hand. This comes after issuing close to 165 million shares and boosting its debt capital by over $400 million. But Wall Street's consensus loss estimate for 2021 and 2022 would result in an aggregate net loss of around $1.75 billion. Put simply, AMC doesn't have enough cash to survive the losses that Wall Street is expecting over the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，AMC最近声称手头有超过10亿美元的现金。此前，该公司发行了近1.65亿股股票，债务资本增加了4亿多美元。但华尔街对2021年和2022年的普遍亏损估计将导致净亏损总额约为17.5亿美元。简而言之，AMC没有足够的现金来承受华尔街预计未来两年的损失。</blockquote></p><p> It's also unclear when society will return to normal. Even though AMC is planning to have 99% of its theaters open by March 26, the vast majority of these locations will have ongoing restrictions, such as limited capacity. Without a return to normal capacity, AMCcould struggle to draw crowdsand attach high-margin concessions sales that are its bread and butter.</p><p><blockquote>也不清楚社会何时会恢复正常。尽管AMC计划在3月26日之前让99%的影院开放，但这些地点中的绝大多数都将受到持续的限制，例如容量有限。如果产能不恢复正常，AMC可能很难吸引观众并附加高利润的特许销售，而这是其赖以生存的支柱。</blockquote></p><p> While there's no doubt an open theater at 50% capacity is better than a closed theater, the pandemic hasn't gone away. New variants have spread to various locales in the U.S., and a sizable percentage of the population in various surveys has shown little or no interest in getting the vaccine. In short, reaching herd immunity could be pushed down the road, which would be devastating for a company like AMC, which is hanging on by a thread.</p><p><blockquote>虽然毫无疑问，50%容量的开放式剧院比封闭式剧院要好，但疫情并没有消失。新的变种已经传播到美国的各个地方，在各种调查中，相当大比例的人口对接种疫苗表现出很少或没有兴趣。简而言之，实现群体免疫可能会被推迟，这对于像AMC这样命悬一线的公司来说将是毁灭性的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But possibly themost-damning catalyst for AMC is the rise of streamingthat Greenfield alluded to. This year,<b>AT&T</b> subsidiary WarnerMedia is releasing all of its new movies on HBO Max the same day they'll hit theaters.<b>Walt Disney</b> is doing something similar with a handful of movies on its Disney+ streaming service. Either consumers will choose to stay home, or the exclusivity period for movie operators will shorten considerably. The landscape is changing for AMC, and not for the better.</p><p><blockquote>但对AMC来说，最致命的催化剂可能是格林菲尔德提到的流媒体的兴起。今年，<b>AT&T</b>子公司WarnerMedia将在HBO Max上发布其所有新电影，并在影院上映的同一天发布。<b>迪斯尼</b>正在对其Disney+流媒体服务上的一些电影做类似的事情。要么消费者会选择呆在家里，要么电影运营商的独占期将大大缩短。AMC的情况正在发生变化，而且不会变得更好。</blockquote></p><p> In case you need one more reason to be skeptical of AMC, how about CEO Adam Aron having his compensation package more than double to $20.9 million from $9.6 million in 2020. Aron received ahefty bonusand stock award for his efforts to keep AMC afloat, which essentially amounted to issuing stock and debt like it was going out of the style.</p><p><blockquote>如果您还需要一个理由对AMC持怀疑态度，那么首席执行官亚当·阿伦(Adam Aron)的薪酬待遇将从2020年的960万美元增加一倍多至2090万美元怎么样？阿伦因其为维持AMC的运营所做的努力而获得了巨额奖金和股票奖励，这实质上相当于发行股票和债务，就像它已经过时一样。</blockquote></p><p> AMC is a fundamental dumpster fire that's being kept afloat by the emotions of retail investors. Whether it's the company's ongoing share-based dilution or its poor operating performance, the arrow is most definitely pointing down.</p><p><blockquote>AMC是一场根本性的垃圾箱火灾，由散户投资者的情绪维持。无论是公司持续的股权稀释还是糟糕的经营业绩，箭头肯定是指向下方的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Entertainment Has a New Price Target: $0.01<blockquote>AMC院线设定新目标价：0.01美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Entertainment Has a New Price Target: $0.01<blockquote>AMC院线设定新目标价：0.01美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-24 09:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last year, uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus whipsawed the stock market. In 2021, the pandemic seems to have taken a back seat on Wall Street to a new phenomenon:the Reddit frenzy.</p><p><blockquote>去年，围绕冠状病毒的不确定性重创了股市。2021年，疫情似乎让位于华尔街的一种新现象：Reddit狂潮。</blockquote></p><p> In its simplest form, the Reddit frenzy involves retail investors -- mostly young and/or novice investors -- banding together to buy shares and out-of-the-money call options on heavily short-sold stocks. Short-sellers are investors who make money when stock prices decline. In many instances, institutional investors and hedge funds (i.e., the perceived-to-be \"big money\") are the biggest short-sellers.</p><p><blockquote>最简单的形式是，Reddit狂热涉及散户投资者（主要是年轻和/或新手投资者）联合起来购买股票和大量卖空股票的价外看涨期权期权。卖空者是在股价下跌时赚钱的投资者。在许多情况下，机构投资者和对冲基金（即被认为是“大资金”的人）是最大的卖空者。</blockquote></p><p> These Reddit traders have purchased stock and used leverage to effect a short squeeze in dozens of companies since mid-January. Since short-selling losses are potentially unlimited, ashort squeezecan send pessimists scurrying for the exit at the same time, which can exacerbate a runaway move to the upside in a heavily short-sold stock.</p><p><blockquote>自1月中旬以来，这些Reddit交易员购买了股票，并利用杠杆对数十家公司进行了轧空。由于卖空损失可能是无限的，所以空头挤压可能会同时派出悲观主义者仓促撤离，这可能会加剧卖空股票中出现的失控向上移动。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment is \"dramatically overvalued\"</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线被“严重高估”</blockquote></p><p> Although<b>GameStop</b> is the best-known Reddit play, its popular sidekick would certainly have to be movie theater operator<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC). Shares of AMC are higher by 557% on a year-to-date basis, through this past weekend.</p><p><blockquote>虽然<b>游戏驿站</b>是Reddit上最著名的游戏，它受欢迎的伙伴肯定是电影院运营商<b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：AMC）。截至上周末，AMC的股价今年迄今上涨了557%。</blockquote></p><p> But according to one analyst,AMC houses a lot of riskand could be in for a bumpy ride.</p><p><blockquote>但一位分析师表示，AMC存在很大风险，可能会遇到坎坷。</blockquote></p><p> Two weeks ago, equity analyst Rich Greenfield, who covers media and technology companies for LightShed Partners, initiated coverage on AMC Entertainment with a sell rating. Although sell ratings are fairly uncommon on Wall Street, it's Greenfield's 12-month price target that really stands out: $0.01. You're reading that correctly:<i>One cent</i>!</p><p><blockquote>两周前，为LightShed Partners研究媒体和科技公司的股票分析师Rich Greenfield首次对AMC院线进行了卖出评级。尽管卖出评级在华尔街相当罕见，但真正引人注目的是Greenfield的12个月目标价：0.01美元。你没看错：<i>一分钱</i>！</blockquote></p><p> Greenfield's thesis as to why AMC will lose nearly 100% of its value over the next year hits on a number of points. To begin with, he believes that AMC is over-levered and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) estimates are too rosy. Greenfield notes that the company is valued at 8 times debt-to-EBITDA, and believes it's unlikely the company will surpass $600 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2022. With little to no free cash flow, he doesn't believe AMC will be able to service its growing debt load.</p><p><blockquote>格林菲尔德关于为什么AMC在明年将损失近100%的价值的论点触及了很多要点。首先，他认为AMC杠杆率过高，其调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)预期过于乐观。Greenfield指出，该公司的估值为债务与EBITDA之比的8倍，并认为该公司2022年调整后EBITDA不太可能超过6亿美元。由于几乎没有自由现金流，他认为AMC无法偿还其不断增长的债务负担。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, Greenfield is skeptical about AMC's audience returning anytime soon. He notes that pandemic fears may persist and keep people away from theaters. Greenfield points to increased streaming usage, as well, as reason why the company could struggle. In other words, consumers could opt to stay home to watch select new releases, or the exclusivity window for theater operators could notably shrink.</p><p><blockquote>此外，格林菲尔德对AMC的观众很快回归持怀疑态度。他指出，对疫情的恐惧可能会持续存在，让人们远离剧院。格林菲尔德指出，流媒体使用量的增加也是该公司陷入困境的原因。换句话说，消费者可以选择呆在家里观看精选的新剧，或者影院运营商的独家窗口可能会明显缩小。</blockquote></p><p> Could AMC really fall 99.9% over the next year?</p><p><blockquote>AMC明年真的会下跌99.9%吗？</blockquote></p><p> The $64,000 question is: Could AMC's stock really become worthless within the next 12 months?</p><p><blockquote>价值64,000美元的问题是：AMC的股票真的会在未来12个月内变得一文不值吗？</blockquote></p><p> As much as Iview bankruptcy as a legitimate possibility for AMCand agree with much of Greenfield's analysis, it's unlikely that AMC reaches this price target within the next 12 months. The reason is simple: AMC has the power to sell common stock and potentially even issue more debt capital to raise money, should the need arise. Greenfield's price target only comes into play if AMC files for a Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization, which would likely wipe out retail investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Iview破产是AMC的合法可能性，并同意Greenfield的大部分分析，但AMC不太可能在未来12个月内达到这一价格目标。原因很简单：如果需要，AMC有权出售普通股，甚至可能发行更多债务资本来筹集资金。只有AMC根据美国破产法第11章申请破产重组，Greenfield的价格目标才会发挥作用，这可能会消灭散户投资者。</blockquote></p><p> However, I wouldn't discount the possibility of $0.01 being a realistic price target within the next two years for a number of reasons.</p><p><blockquote>然而，出于多种原因，我不会忽视0.01美元成为未来两年内现实价格目标的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> To start with, AMC recently claimed to have more than $1 billion in cash on hand. This comes after issuing close to 165 million shares and boosting its debt capital by over $400 million. But Wall Street's consensus loss estimate for 2021 and 2022 would result in an aggregate net loss of around $1.75 billion. Put simply, AMC doesn't have enough cash to survive the losses that Wall Street is expecting over the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，AMC最近声称手头有超过10亿美元的现金。此前，该公司发行了近1.65亿股股票，债务资本增加了4亿多美元。但华尔街对2021年和2022年的普遍亏损估计将导致净亏损总额约为17.5亿美元。简而言之，AMC没有足够的现金来承受华尔街预计未来两年的损失。</blockquote></p><p> It's also unclear when society will return to normal. Even though AMC is planning to have 99% of its theaters open by March 26, the vast majority of these locations will have ongoing restrictions, such as limited capacity. Without a return to normal capacity, AMCcould struggle to draw crowdsand attach high-margin concessions sales that are its bread and butter.</p><p><blockquote>也不清楚社会何时会恢复正常。尽管AMC计划在3月26日之前让99%的影院开放，但这些地点中的绝大多数都将受到持续的限制，例如容量有限。如果产能不恢复正常，AMC可能很难吸引观众并附加高利润的特许销售，而这是其赖以生存的支柱。</blockquote></p><p> While there's no doubt an open theater at 50% capacity is better than a closed theater, the pandemic hasn't gone away. New variants have spread to various locales in the U.S., and a sizable percentage of the population in various surveys has shown little or no interest in getting the vaccine. In short, reaching herd immunity could be pushed down the road, which would be devastating for a company like AMC, which is hanging on by a thread.</p><p><blockquote>虽然毫无疑问，50%容量的开放式剧院比封闭式剧院要好，但疫情并没有消失。新的变种已经传播到美国的各个地方，在各种调查中，相当大比例的人口对接种疫苗表现出很少或没有兴趣。简而言之，实现群体免疫可能会被推迟，这对于像AMC这样命悬一线的公司来说将是毁灭性的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But possibly themost-damning catalyst for AMC is the rise of streamingthat Greenfield alluded to. This year,<b>AT&T</b> subsidiary WarnerMedia is releasing all of its new movies on HBO Max the same day they'll hit theaters.<b>Walt Disney</b> is doing something similar with a handful of movies on its Disney+ streaming service. Either consumers will choose to stay home, or the exclusivity period for movie operators will shorten considerably. The landscape is changing for AMC, and not for the better.</p><p><blockquote>但对AMC来说，最致命的催化剂可能是格林菲尔德提到的流媒体的兴起。今年，<b>AT&T</b>子公司WarnerMedia将在HBO Max上发布其所有新电影，并在影院上映的同一天发布。<b>迪斯尼</b>正在对其Disney+流媒体服务上的一些电影做类似的事情。要么消费者会选择呆在家里，要么电影运营商的独占期将大大缩短。AMC的情况正在发生变化，而且不会变得更好。</blockquote></p><p> In case you need one more reason to be skeptical of AMC, how about CEO Adam Aron having his compensation package more than double to $20.9 million from $9.6 million in 2020. Aron received ahefty bonusand stock award for his efforts to keep AMC afloat, which essentially amounted to issuing stock and debt like it was going out of the style.</p><p><blockquote>如果您还需要一个理由对AMC持怀疑态度，那么首席执行官亚当·阿伦(Adam Aron)的薪酬待遇将从2020年的960万美元增加一倍多至2090万美元怎么样？阿伦因其为维持AMC的运营所做的努力而获得了巨额奖金和股票奖励，这实质上相当于发行股票和债务，就像它已经过时一样。</blockquote></p><p> AMC is a fundamental dumpster fire that's being kept afloat by the emotions of retail investors. Whether it's the company's ongoing share-based dilution or its poor operating performance, the arrow is most definitely pointing down.</p><p><blockquote>AMC是一场根本性的垃圾箱火灾，由散户投资者的情绪维持。无论是公司持续的股权稀释还是糟糕的经营业绩，箭头肯定是指向下方的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/23/amc-entertainment-has-a-new-price-target-001/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/23/amc-entertainment-has-a-new-price-target-001/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145719096","content_text":"Last year, uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus whipsawed the stock market. In 2021, the pandemic seems to have taken a back seat on Wall Street to a new phenomenon:the Reddit frenzy.\nIn its simplest form, the Reddit frenzy involves retail investors -- mostly young and/or novice investors -- banding together to buy shares and out-of-the-money call options on heavily short-sold stocks. Short-sellers are investors who make money when stock prices decline. In many instances, institutional investors and hedge funds (i.e., the perceived-to-be \"big money\") are the biggest short-sellers.\nThese Reddit traders have purchased stock and used leverage to effect a short squeeze in dozens of companies since mid-January. Since short-selling losses are potentially unlimited, ashort squeezecan send pessimists scurrying for the exit at the same time, which can exacerbate a runaway move to the upside in a heavily short-sold stock.\nAMC Entertainment is \"dramatically overvalued\"\nAlthoughGameStop is the best-known Reddit play, its popular sidekick would certainly have to be movie theater operatorAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC). Shares of AMC are higher by 557% on a year-to-date basis, through this past weekend.\nBut according to one analyst,AMC houses a lot of riskand could be in for a bumpy ride.\nTwo weeks ago, equity analyst Rich Greenfield, who covers media and technology companies for LightShed Partners, initiated coverage on AMC Entertainment with a sell rating. Although sell ratings are fairly uncommon on Wall Street, it's Greenfield's 12-month price target that really stands out: $0.01. You're reading that correctly:One cent!\nGreenfield's thesis as to why AMC will lose nearly 100% of its value over the next year hits on a number of points. To begin with, he believes that AMC is over-levered and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) estimates are too rosy. Greenfield notes that the company is valued at 8 times debt-to-EBITDA, and believes it's unlikely the company will surpass $600 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2022. With little to no free cash flow, he doesn't believe AMC will be able to service its growing debt load.\nFurthermore, Greenfield is skeptical about AMC's audience returning anytime soon. He notes that pandemic fears may persist and keep people away from theaters. Greenfield points to increased streaming usage, as well, as reason why the company could struggle. In other words, consumers could opt to stay home to watch select new releases, or the exclusivity window for theater operators could notably shrink.\nCould AMC really fall 99.9% over the next year?\nThe $64,000 question is: Could AMC's stock really become worthless within the next 12 months?\nAs much as Iview bankruptcy as a legitimate possibility for AMCand agree with much of Greenfield's analysis, it's unlikely that AMC reaches this price target within the next 12 months. The reason is simple: AMC has the power to sell common stock and potentially even issue more debt capital to raise money, should the need arise. Greenfield's price target only comes into play if AMC files for a Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization, which would likely wipe out retail investors.\nHowever, I wouldn't discount the possibility of $0.01 being a realistic price target within the next two years for a number of reasons.\nTo start with, AMC recently claimed to have more than $1 billion in cash on hand. This comes after issuing close to 165 million shares and boosting its debt capital by over $400 million. But Wall Street's consensus loss estimate for 2021 and 2022 would result in an aggregate net loss of around $1.75 billion. Put simply, AMC doesn't have enough cash to survive the losses that Wall Street is expecting over the next two years.\nIt's also unclear when society will return to normal. Even though AMC is planning to have 99% of its theaters open by March 26, the vast majority of these locations will have ongoing restrictions, such as limited capacity. Without a return to normal capacity, AMCcould struggle to draw crowdsand attach high-margin concessions sales that are its bread and butter.\nWhile there's no doubt an open theater at 50% capacity is better than a closed theater, the pandemic hasn't gone away. New variants have spread to various locales in the U.S., and a sizable percentage of the population in various surveys has shown little or no interest in getting the vaccine. In short, reaching herd immunity could be pushed down the road, which would be devastating for a company like AMC, which is hanging on by a thread.\nBut possibly themost-damning catalyst for AMC is the rise of streamingthat Greenfield alluded to. This year,AT&T subsidiary WarnerMedia is releasing all of its new movies on HBO Max the same day they'll hit theaters.Walt Disney is doing something similar with a handful of movies on its Disney+ streaming service. Either consumers will choose to stay home, or the exclusivity period for movie operators will shorten considerably. The landscape is changing for AMC, and not for the better.\nIn case you need one more reason to be skeptical of AMC, how about CEO Adam Aron having his compensation package more than double to $20.9 million from $9.6 million in 2020. Aron received ahefty bonusand stock award for his efforts to keep AMC afloat, which essentially amounted to issuing stock and debt like it was going out of the style.\nAMC is a fundamental dumpster fire that's being kept afloat by the emotions of retail investors. Whether it's the company's ongoing share-based dilution or its poor operating performance, the arrow is most definitely pointing down.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1276,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/351611958"}
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