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2021-03-24

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Why Amazon And Apple Are Proof US Equities Aren't In A Bubble<blockquote>为什么亚马逊和苹果证明美国股市并未陷入泡沫</blockquote>

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To help investors understand and avoid risks, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;has published a Global Strategy Paper which examines their characteristics and dangers, drawing the conclusion that current markets only present a few of the recurring features associated with bubbles. For example, there is no doubt that exceptionally-low interest rates can induce excessive risk-taking, but private sector finances are robust, thus reducing the chances of systemic risk in the absence of significant financial leverage, with the exception of government debts.<blockquote>随着许多股市连续创下新高、创纪录的发行量和大量交易，人们对市场可能出现金融泡沫的担忧也在加剧。为了帮助投资者了解和规避风险，高盛发表了一份全球策略文件，研究了风险的特征和危险，得出的结论是，当前市场仅呈现出一些与泡沫相关的反复出现的特征。例如，毫无疑问，极低的利率会导致过度冒险，但私营部门财务稳健，因此在没有重大金融杠杆（政府债务除外）的情况下降低了系统性风险的机会。</blockquote> Neither Bubbles Nor Bear Market In Sight:&nbsp;According to Goldman Sachs, the initial phase of a recovery business cycle also suggests that the risk of impending bubbles, with their associated systemic risk, is relatively low. The investment company brings the example of&nbsp;Amazon.com Inc.&nbsp;and&nbsp;Apple Inc.&nbsp;stocks which, unlike in 2000, are not to be considered in bubble territory, since their respective fundamentals justify such high prices. The final verdict of the long and detailed analysis proposed by Goldman Sachs' \"guide to bubbles\" is that there are signs of complacency and high optimism in the market, but the key factors driving it and the cycle of economic recovery being just at the beginning seem to suggest that we are far from the explosion of a bubble. Moreover, as it can be evinced by the table below created by Goldman Sachs itself, bear market seems to be still in hibernation.<blockquote>既看不到泡沫，也看不到熊市：高盛表示，复苏商业周期的初始阶段也表明，即将出现泡沫的风险及其相关的系统性风险相对较低。投资公司举了个例子亚马逊公司。和苹果公司。与2000年不同的是，这些股票不应被视为泡沫区域，因为它们各自的基本面证明了如此高的价格是合理的。高盛《泡沫指南》提出的冗长而详细的分析最终的结论是，市场出现了自满情绪和高度乐观的迹象，但推动它的关键因素以及经济复苏的周期刚刚开始，似乎暗示我们离泡沫破裂还很远。此外，从高盛自己创建的下表可以看出，熊市似乎仍处于冬眠状态。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082fcbe3c0c000ea7aa6a5e22064dfc0\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"258\">Bubble characteristics and related risks<blockquote>泡沫特征及相关风险</blockquote> Absence Of Any Significant Leverage: Although Goldman admits the presence of pockets of&nbsp;overvaluations on the stock market, with some parts of it making adjustments consistent with the evolution of interest rates, there are no recurring features of bubbles, not even partial ones. Goldman particularly emphasizes the absence of any significant leverage - the only exception being the public sector, for it judges that the financial system stability risks are relatively low.<blockquote>不存在任何重大杠杆：尽管高盛承认股市存在估值过高的地方，其中某些部分会根据利率的演变进行调整，但泡沫并没有反复出现的特征，甚至是部分泡沫也没有。高盛特别强调不存在任何重大杠杆——唯一的例外是公共部门，因为它判断金融体系稳定风险相对较低。</blockquote> High Prices May Be Justified:Goldman's paper quotes Charles Mackay, who observed - already in 1841 - how human beings often \"think\" like a flock, but then do not necessarily behave as such when they finally menage to slowly grasp the meaning of things. Concerning the recent alarm triggered, by the Chinese regulator Guo Shuging, about bubbles swelling in the US and Europe, the analysis states that excessive prices of a single stock or applied to a limited part of the market do not necessarily indicate a systemic risk. Besides, not every swift price rise is related to a bubble, since it sometimes only signals a strong, genuine increase in value, justified by fundamentals.<blockquote>高价可能是合理的：戈德曼的论文引用了查尔斯·麦凯的话，他早在1841年就观察到，人类经常像一群人一样“思考”，但当他们最终设法慢慢理解事物的意义时，就不一定表现得像一群人。关于中国监管机构郭树清最近引发的关于美国和欧洲泡沫膨胀的警报，分析指出，单一股票或应用于市场有限部分的过高价格并不一定表明存在系统性风险。此外，并非每一次价格快速上涨都与泡沫有关，因为它有时只是表明价值强劲、真正的上涨，并有基本面的合理性。</blockquote> Psychological Contagion:&nbsp;Psychology is a chief factor, as Robert Shiller pointed out in his book \"Irrational Exuberance\", published in 2000 and inspired by a famous quote from the then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who defined a bubble as the situation in which the news of rising prices provokes a contagion effect that spreads among investors, triggering a mechanism of envy for the success of others.<blockquote>心理传染：正如罗伯特·席勒(Robert Shiller)在其2000年出版的《非理性繁荣》(Irrational Exuberance)一书中指出的那样，心理学是一个主要因素，该书的灵感来自时任美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)的一句名言，格林斯潘将泡沫定义为价格上涨的消息引发传染效应，在投资者中传播，引发嫉妒他人成功的机制。</blockquote> A Handful Of Recurring Ingredients:&nbsp;This sort of contagion has occurred several times over the centuries in human history - from the&nbsp;Dutch tulips of the 1600s&nbsp;to the bubbles of the South Seas and the Mississippi in Great Britain and France in the 1700s, not to mention the more recent Internet and subprime mortgage bubble, and passing through the \"railway\" bubble of last century in the United States. According to Goldman, the ultimate ingredients are few and never change: prices unanchored from reality, a justifying attitude, market concentration, widespread speculation, excess of leverage, the narration of being on the threshold of a new era and an end-of-cycle economic boom, all seasoned with scandals and behavior irregularities.<blockquote>一些反复出现的成分：在人类历史上的几个世纪里，这种传染已经发生过几次——从17世纪的荷兰郁金香到18世纪英国和法国的南海和密西西比河泡沫，更不用说最近的互联网和次贷泡沫，以及上个世纪美国的“铁路”泡沫。高盛认为，最终的因素很少，而且永远不会改变：脱离现实的价格、自以为是的态度、市场集中度、广泛的投机、过度杠杆、即将进入新时代和经济周期结束的叙述繁荣，所有这些都充满了丑闻和违规行为。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Amazon And Apple Are Proof US Equities Aren't In A Bubble<blockquote>为什么亚马逊和苹果证明美国股市并未陷入泡沫</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Amazon And Apple Are Proof US Equities Aren't In A Bubble<blockquote>为什么亚马逊和苹果证明美国股市并未陷入泡沫</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nBenzinga \n2021-03-23 22:08\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c2061bf3e550d9b1fce50ea579fc04\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"375\"><blockquote></blockquote> According to the investment banking giant, the current stock market valuations are substantially correct.<blockquote>投行巨头表示，目前股市估值基本正确。</blockquote> With many stock markets reaching new highs, record issuances and a large number of deals in a row, fears that the markets may develop financial bubbles are also mounting. To help investors understand and avoid risks, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;has published a Global Strategy Paper which examines their characteristics and dangers, drawing the conclusion that current markets only present a few of the recurring features associated with bubbles. For example, there is no doubt that exceptionally-low interest rates can induce excessive risk-taking, but private sector finances are robust, thus reducing the chances of systemic risk in the absence of significant financial leverage, with the exception of government debts.<blockquote>随着许多股市连续创下新高、创纪录的发行量和大量交易，人们对市场可能出现金融泡沫的担忧也在加剧。为了帮助投资者了解和规避风险，高盛发表了一份全球策略文件，研究了风险的特征和危险，得出的结论是，当前市场仅呈现出一些与泡沫相关的反复出现的特征。例如，毫无疑问，极低的利率会导致过度冒险，但私营部门财务稳健，因此在没有重大金融杠杆（政府债务除外）的情况下降低了系统性风险的机会。</blockquote> Neither Bubbles Nor Bear Market In Sight:&nbsp;According to Goldman Sachs, the initial phase of a recovery business cycle also suggests that the risk of impending bubbles, with their associated systemic risk, is relatively low. The investment company brings the example of&nbsp;Amazon.com Inc.&nbsp;and&nbsp;Apple Inc.&nbsp;stocks which, unlike in 2000, are not to be considered in bubble territory, since their respective fundamentals justify such high prices. The final verdict of the long and detailed analysis proposed by Goldman Sachs' \"guide to bubbles\" is that there are signs of complacency and high optimism in the market, but the key factors driving it and the cycle of economic recovery being just at the beginning seem to suggest that we are far from the explosion of a bubble. Moreover, as it can be evinced by the table below created by Goldman Sachs itself, bear market seems to be still in hibernation.<blockquote>既看不到泡沫，也看不到熊市：高盛表示，复苏商业周期的初始阶段也表明，即将出现泡沫的风险及其相关的系统性风险相对较低。投资公司举了个例子亚马逊公司。和苹果公司。与2000年不同的是，这些股票不应被视为泡沫区域，因为它们各自的基本面证明了如此高的价格是合理的。高盛《泡沫指南》提出的冗长而详细的分析最终的结论是，市场出现了自满情绪和高度乐观的迹象，但推动它的关键因素以及经济复苏的周期刚刚开始，似乎暗示我们离泡沫破裂还很远。此外，从高盛自己创建的下表可以看出，熊市似乎仍处于冬眠状态。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082fcbe3c0c000ea7aa6a5e22064dfc0\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"258\">Bubble characteristics and related risks<blockquote>泡沫特征及相关风险</blockquote> Absence Of Any Significant Leverage: Although Goldman admits the presence of pockets of&nbsp;overvaluations on the stock market, with some parts of it making adjustments consistent with the evolution of interest rates, there are no recurring features of bubbles, not even partial ones. Goldman particularly emphasizes the absence of any significant leverage - the only exception being the public sector, for it judges that the financial system stability risks are relatively low.<blockquote>不存在任何重大杠杆：尽管高盛承认股市存在估值过高的地方，其中某些部分会根据利率的演变进行调整，但泡沫并没有反复出现的特征，甚至是部分泡沫也没有。高盛特别强调不存在任何重大杠杆——唯一的例外是公共部门，因为它判断金融体系稳定风险相对较低。</blockquote> High Prices May Be Justified:Goldman's paper quotes Charles Mackay, who observed - already in 1841 - how human beings often \"think\" like a flock, but then do not necessarily behave as such when they finally menage to slowly grasp the meaning of things. Concerning the recent alarm triggered, by the Chinese regulator Guo Shuging, about bubbles swelling in the US and Europe, the analysis states that excessive prices of a single stock or applied to a limited part of the market do not necessarily indicate a systemic risk. Besides, not every swift price rise is related to a bubble, since it sometimes only signals a strong, genuine increase in value, justified by fundamentals.<blockquote>高价可能是合理的：戈德曼的论文引用了查尔斯·麦凯的话，他早在1841年就观察到，人类经常像一群人一样“思考”，但当他们最终设法慢慢理解事物的意义时，就不一定表现得像一群人。关于中国监管机构郭树清最近引发的关于美国和欧洲泡沫膨胀的警报，分析指出，单一股票或应用于市场有限部分的过高价格并不一定表明存在系统性风险。此外，并非每一次价格快速上涨都与泡沫有关，因为它有时只是表明价值强劲、真正的上涨，并有基本面的合理性。</blockquote> Psychological Contagion:&nbsp;Psychology is a chief factor, as Robert Shiller pointed out in his book \"Irrational Exuberance\", published in 2000 and inspired by a famous quote from the then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who defined a bubble as the situation in which the news of rising prices provokes a contagion effect that spreads among investors, triggering a mechanism of envy for the success of others.<blockquote>心理传染：正如罗伯特·席勒(Robert Shiller)在其2000年出版的《非理性繁荣》(Irrational Exuberance)一书中指出的那样，心理学是一个主要因素，该书的灵感来自时任美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)的一句名言，格林斯潘将泡沫定义为价格上涨的消息引发传染效应，在投资者中传播，引发嫉妒他人成功的机制。</blockquote> A Handful Of Recurring Ingredients:&nbsp;This sort of contagion has occurred several times over the centuries in human history - from the&nbsp;Dutch tulips of the 1600s&nbsp;to the bubbles of the South Seas and the Mississippi in Great Britain and France in the 1700s, not to mention the more recent Internet and subprime mortgage bubble, and passing through the \"railway\" bubble of last century in the United States. According to Goldman, the ultimate ingredients are few and never change: prices unanchored from reality, a justifying attitude, market concentration, widespread speculation, excess of leverage, the narration of being on the threshold of a new era and an end-of-cycle economic boom, all seasoned with scandals and behavior irregularities.<blockquote>一些反复出现的成分：在人类历史上的几个世纪里，这种传染已经发生过几次——从17世纪的荷兰郁金香到18世纪英国和法国的南海和密西西比河泡沫，更不用说最近的互联网和次贷泡沫，以及上个世纪美国的“铁路”泡沫。高盛认为，最终的因素很少，而且永远不会改变：脱离现实的价格、自以为是的态度、市场集中度、广泛的投机、过度杠杆、即将进入新时代和经济周期结束的叙述繁荣，所有这些都充满了丑闻和违规行为。</blockquote>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122990114","content_text":"According to the investment banking giant, the current stock market valuations are substantially correct.\nWith many stock markets reaching new highs, record issuances and a large number of deals in a row, fears that the markets may develop financial bubbles are also mounting. To help investors understand and avoid risks, Goldman Sachs has published a Global Strategy Paper which examines their characteristics and dangers, drawing the conclusion that current markets only present a few of the recurring features associated with bubbles. For example, there is no doubt that exceptionally-low interest rates can induce excessive risk-taking, but private sector finances are robust, thus reducing the chances of systemic risk in the absence of significant financial leverage, with the exception of government debts.\nNeither Bubbles Nor Bear Market In Sight: According to Goldman Sachs, the initial phase of a recovery business cycle also suggests that the risk of impending bubbles, with their associated systemic risk, is relatively low. The investment company brings the example of Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. stocks which, unlike in 2000, are not to be considered in bubble territory, since their respective fundamentals justify such high prices. The final verdict of the long and detailed analysis proposed by Goldman Sachs' \"guide to bubbles\" is that there are signs of complacency and high optimism in the market, but the key factors driving it and the cycle of economic recovery being just at the beginning seem to suggest that we are far from the explosion of a bubble. Moreover, as it can be evinced by the table below created by Goldman Sachs itself, bear market seems to be still in hibernation.\nBubble characteristics and related risks\nAbsence Of Any Significant Leverage: Although Goldman admits the presence of pockets of overvaluations on the stock market, with some parts of it making adjustments consistent with the evolution of interest rates, there are no recurring features of bubbles, not even partial ones. Goldman particularly emphasizes the absence of any significant leverage - the only exception being the public sector, for it judges that the financial system stability risks are relatively low.\nHigh Prices May Be Justified:Goldman's paper quotes Charles Mackay, who observed - already in 1841 - how human beings often \"think\" like a flock, but then do not necessarily behave as such when they finally menage to slowly grasp the meaning of things. Concerning the recent alarm triggered, by the Chinese regulator Guo Shuging, about bubbles swelling in the US and Europe, the analysis states that excessive prices of a single stock or applied to a limited part of the market do not necessarily indicate a systemic risk. Besides, not every swift price rise is related to a bubble, since it sometimes only signals a strong, genuine increase in value, justified by fundamentals.\nPsychological Contagion: Psychology is a chief factor, as Robert Shiller pointed out in his book \"Irrational Exuberance\", published in 2000 and inspired by a famous quote from the then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who defined a bubble as the situation in which the news of rising prices provokes a contagion effect that spreads among investors, triggering a mechanism of envy for the success of others.\nA Handful Of Recurring Ingredients: This sort of contagion has occurred several times over the centuries in human history - from the Dutch tulips of the 1600s to the bubbles of the South Seas and the Mississippi in Great Britain and France in the 1700s, not to mention the more recent Internet and subprime mortgage bubble, and passing through the \"railway\" bubble of last century in the United States. According to Goldman, the ultimate ingredients are few and never change: prices unanchored from reality, a justifying attitude, market concentration, widespread speculation, excess of leverage, the narration of being on the threshold of a new era and an end-of-cycle economic boom, all seasoned with scandals and behavior irregularities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/353472163"}