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2021-03-23

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Why Amazon And Apple Are Proof US Equities Aren't In A Bubble<blockquote>为什么亚马逊和苹果证明美国股市没有泡沫</blockquote>

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To help investors understand and avoid risks, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;has published a Global Strategy Paper which examines their characteristics and dangers, drawing the conclusion that current markets only present a few of the recurring features associated with bubbles. For example, there is no doubt that exceptionally-low interest rates can induce excessive risk-taking, but private sector finances are robust, thus reducing the chances of systemic risk in the absence of significant financial leverage, with the exception of government debts.<blockquote>随着许多股市创下新高、创纪录的发行量和连续大量交易，对市场可能出现金融泡沫的担忧也在加剧。为了帮助投资者了解和规避风险，高盛发布了一份全球战略文件，研究了它们的特征和危险，得出的结论是，当前市场仅呈现出与泡沫相关的少数反复出现的特征。例如，毫无疑问，异常低利率会诱发过度冒险，但私营部门的财务状况稳健，因此在没有重大财务杠杆的情况下，降低了系统性风险的可能性，政府债务除外。</blockquote> Neither Bubbles Nor Bear Market In Sight:&nbsp;According to Goldman Sachs, the initial phase of a recovery business cycle also suggests that the risk of impending bubbles, with their associated systemic risk, is relatively low. The investment company brings the example of&nbsp;Amazon.com Inc.&nbsp;and&nbsp;Apple Inc.&nbsp;stocks which, unlike in 2000, are not to be considered in bubble territory, since their respective fundamentals justify such high prices. The final verdict of the long and detailed analysis proposed by Goldman Sachs' \"guide to bubbles\" is that there are signs of complacency and high optimism in the market, but the key factors driving it and the cycle of economic recovery being just at the beginning seem to suggest that we are far from the explosion of a bubble. Moreover, as it can be evinced by the table below created by Goldman Sachs itself, bear market seems to be still in hibernation.<blockquote>泡沫和熊市都看不到：高盛表示，复苏商业周期的初始阶段也表明，即将出现泡沫的风险及其相关的系统性风险相对较低。投资公司举了一个例子亚马逊公司。和苹果公司。与 2000 年不同的是，这些股票不应被视为泡沫区域，因为它们各自的基本面证明了如此高的价格是合理的。高盛《泡沫指南》提出的冗长而详尽的分析最终结论是，市场出现了自满和高度乐观的迹象，但驱动它的关键因素以及经济复苏周期才刚刚开始，似乎表明我们离泡沫破灭还很远。此外，正如高盛自己制作的下表所示，熊市似乎仍处于冬眠状态。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082fcbe3c0c000ea7aa6a5e22064dfc0\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"258\">Bubble characteristics and related risks<blockquote>泡沫特征及相关风险</blockquote> Absence Of Any Significant Leverage: Although Goldman admits the presence of pockets of&nbsp;overvaluations on the stock market, with some parts of it making adjustments consistent with the evolution of interest rates, there are no recurring features of bubbles, not even partial ones. Goldman particularly emphasizes the absence of any significant leverage - the only exception being the public sector, for it judges that the financial system stability risks are relatively low.<blockquote>无任何重大杠杆：尽管高盛承认股票市场存在一些高估，并且其某些部分会根据利率的演变进行调整，但泡沫并没有反复出现，甚至是局部泡沫。高盛特别强调不存在任何重大杠杆——唯一的例外是公共部门，因为它判断金融体系稳定风险相对较低。</blockquote> High Prices May Be Justified:Goldman's paper quotes Charles Mackay, who observed - already in 1841 - how human beings often \"think\" like a flock, but then do not necessarily behave as such when they finally menage to slowly grasp the meaning of things. Concerning the recent alarm triggered, by the Chinese regulator Guo Shuging, about bubbles swelling in the US and Europe, the analysis states that excessive prices of a single stock or applied to a limited part of the market do not necessarily indicate a systemic risk. Besides, not every swift price rise is related to a bubble, since it sometimes only signals a strong, genuine increase in value, justified by fundamentals.<blockquote>高价格可能是合理的：高盛的论文引用了查尔斯·麦凯的话，他早在1841年就观察到，人类经常像一群人一样“思考”，但当他们最终设法慢慢理解事物的意义时，却不一定会这样做。针对中国监管机构郭树清最近对美国和欧洲泡沫膨胀发出的警报，分析指出，单只股票的过高价格或适用于市场有限部分的价格并不一定表明存在系统性风险。此外，并非每次价格快速上涨都与泡沫有关，因为它有时只是表明价值强劲、真正的增长，而基本面是合理的。</blockquote> Psychological Contagion:&nbsp;Psychology is a chief factor, as Robert Shiller pointed out in his book \"Irrational Exuberance\", published in 2000 and inspired by a famous quote from the then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who defined a bubble as the situation in which the news of rising prices provokes a contagion effect that spreads among investors, triggering a mechanism of envy for the success of others.<blockquote>心理传染：正如罗伯特·席勒在他2000年出版的《非理性繁荣》一书中指出的那样，心理是一个主要因素，该书的灵感来自时任美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘的一句名言，他将泡沫定义为价格上涨的消息引发传染效应，在投资者中传播，引发对他人成功的嫉妒机制。</blockquote> A Handful Of Recurring Ingredients:&nbsp;This sort of contagion has occurred several times over the centuries in human history - from the&nbsp;Dutch tulips of the 1600s&nbsp;to the bubbles of the South Seas and the Mississippi in Great Britain and France in the 1700s, not to mention the more recent Internet and subprime mortgage bubble, and passing through the \"railway\" bubble of last century in the United States. According to Goldman, the ultimate ingredients are few and never change: prices unanchored from reality, a justifying attitude, market concentration, widespread speculation, excess of leverage, the narration of being on the threshold of a new era and an end-of-cycle economic boom, all seasoned with scandals and behavior irregularities.<blockquote>一些反复出现的成分：这种传染在人类历史上已经发生过几次——从17世纪荷兰的郁金香，到18世纪英法的南海和密西西比河泡沫，更不用说最近的互联网和次级抵押贷款泡沫，再到上世纪美国的“铁路”泡沫。根据高盛的说法，最终的因素很少，而且永远不会改变：脱离现实的价格、合理的态度、市场集中度、普遍的投机、过度杠杆、处于新时代门槛的叙述和周期结束的经济繁荣，所有这些都充斥着丑闻和行为违规。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Amazon And Apple Are Proof US Equities Aren't In A Bubble<blockquote>为什么亚马逊和苹果证明美国股市没有泡沫</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Amazon And Apple Are Proof US Equities Aren't In A Bubble<blockquote>为什么亚马逊和苹果证明美国股市没有泡沫</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nBenzinga Earnings \n2021-03-23 22:08\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c2061bf3e550d9b1fce50ea579fc04\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"375\"><blockquote></blockquote> According to the investment banking giant, the current stock market valuations are substantially correct.<blockquote>这家投资银行巨头表示，当前股市估值基本正确。</blockquote> With many stock markets reaching new highs, record issuances and a large number of deals in a row, fears that the markets may develop financial bubbles are also mounting. To help investors understand and avoid risks, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;has published a Global Strategy Paper which examines their characteristics and dangers, drawing the conclusion that current markets only present a few of the recurring features associated with bubbles. For example, there is no doubt that exceptionally-low interest rates can induce excessive risk-taking, but private sector finances are robust, thus reducing the chances of systemic risk in the absence of significant financial leverage, with the exception of government debts.<blockquote>随着许多股市创下新高、创纪录的发行量和连续大量交易，对市场可能出现金融泡沫的担忧也在加剧。为了帮助投资者了解和规避风险，高盛发布了一份全球战略文件，研究了它们的特征和危险，得出的结论是，当前市场仅呈现出与泡沫相关的少数反复出现的特征。例如，毫无疑问，异常低利率会诱发过度冒险，但私营部门的财务状况稳健，因此在没有重大财务杠杆的情况下，降低了系统性风险的可能性，政府债务除外。</blockquote> Neither Bubbles Nor Bear Market In Sight:&nbsp;According to Goldman Sachs, the initial phase of a recovery business cycle also suggests that the risk of impending bubbles, with their associated systemic risk, is relatively low. The investment company brings the example of&nbsp;Amazon.com Inc.&nbsp;and&nbsp;Apple Inc.&nbsp;stocks which, unlike in 2000, are not to be considered in bubble territory, since their respective fundamentals justify such high prices. The final verdict of the long and detailed analysis proposed by Goldman Sachs' \"guide to bubbles\" is that there are signs of complacency and high optimism in the market, but the key factors driving it and the cycle of economic recovery being just at the beginning seem to suggest that we are far from the explosion of a bubble. Moreover, as it can be evinced by the table below created by Goldman Sachs itself, bear market seems to be still in hibernation.<blockquote>泡沫和熊市都看不到：高盛表示，复苏商业周期的初始阶段也表明，即将出现泡沫的风险及其相关的系统性风险相对较低。投资公司举了一个例子亚马逊公司。和苹果公司。与 2000 年不同的是，这些股票不应被视为泡沫区域，因为它们各自的基本面证明了如此高的价格是合理的。高盛《泡沫指南》提出的冗长而详尽的分析最终结论是，市场出现了自满和高度乐观的迹象，但驱动它的关键因素以及经济复苏周期才刚刚开始，似乎表明我们离泡沫破灭还很远。此外，正如高盛自己制作的下表所示，熊市似乎仍处于冬眠状态。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082fcbe3c0c000ea7aa6a5e22064dfc0\" tg-width=\"1002\" tg-height=\"258\">Bubble characteristics and related risks<blockquote>泡沫特征及相关风险</blockquote> Absence Of Any Significant Leverage: Although Goldman admits the presence of pockets of&nbsp;overvaluations on the stock market, with some parts of it making adjustments consistent with the evolution of interest rates, there are no recurring features of bubbles, not even partial ones. Goldman particularly emphasizes the absence of any significant leverage - the only exception being the public sector, for it judges that the financial system stability risks are relatively low.<blockquote>无任何重大杠杆：尽管高盛承认股票市场存在一些高估，并且其某些部分会根据利率的演变进行调整，但泡沫并没有反复出现，甚至是局部泡沫。高盛特别强调不存在任何重大杠杆——唯一的例外是公共部门，因为它判断金融体系稳定风险相对较低。</blockquote> High Prices May Be Justified:Goldman's paper quotes Charles Mackay, who observed - already in 1841 - how human beings often \"think\" like a flock, but then do not necessarily behave as such when they finally menage to slowly grasp the meaning of things. Concerning the recent alarm triggered, by the Chinese regulator Guo Shuging, about bubbles swelling in the US and Europe, the analysis states that excessive prices of a single stock or applied to a limited part of the market do not necessarily indicate a systemic risk. Besides, not every swift price rise is related to a bubble, since it sometimes only signals a strong, genuine increase in value, justified by fundamentals.<blockquote>高价格可能是合理的：高盛的论文引用了查尔斯·麦凯的话，他早在1841年就观察到，人类经常像一群人一样“思考”，但当他们最终设法慢慢理解事物的意义时，却不一定会这样做。针对中国监管机构郭树清最近对美国和欧洲泡沫膨胀发出的警报，分析指出，单只股票的过高价格或适用于市场有限部分的价格并不一定表明存在系统性风险。此外，并非每次价格快速上涨都与泡沫有关，因为它有时只是表明价值强劲、真正的增长，而基本面是合理的。</blockquote> Psychological Contagion:&nbsp;Psychology is a chief factor, as Robert Shiller pointed out in his book \"Irrational Exuberance\", published in 2000 and inspired by a famous quote from the then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who defined a bubble as the situation in which the news of rising prices provokes a contagion effect that spreads among investors, triggering a mechanism of envy for the success of others.<blockquote>心理传染：正如罗伯特·席勒在他2000年出版的《非理性繁荣》一书中指出的那样，心理是一个主要因素，该书的灵感来自时任美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘的一句名言，他将泡沫定义为价格上涨的消息引发传染效应，在投资者中传播，引发对他人成功的嫉妒机制。</blockquote> A Handful Of Recurring Ingredients:&nbsp;This sort of contagion has occurred several times over the centuries in human history - from the&nbsp;Dutch tulips of the 1600s&nbsp;to the bubbles of the South Seas and the Mississippi in Great Britain and France in the 1700s, not to mention the more recent Internet and subprime mortgage bubble, and passing through the \"railway\" bubble of last century in the United States. According to Goldman, the ultimate ingredients are few and never change: prices unanchored from reality, a justifying attitude, market concentration, widespread speculation, excess of leverage, the narration of being on the threshold of a new era and an end-of-cycle economic boom, all seasoned with scandals and behavior irregularities.<blockquote>一些反复出现的成分：这种传染在人类历史上已经发生过几次——从17世纪荷兰的郁金香，到18世纪英法的南海和密西西比河泡沫，更不用说最近的互联网和次级抵押贷款泡沫，再到上世纪美国的“铁路”泡沫。根据高盛的说法，最终的因素很少，而且永远不会改变：脱离现实的价格、合理的态度、市场集中度、普遍的投机、过度杠杆、处于新时代门槛的叙述和周期结束的经济繁荣，所有这些都充斥着丑闻和行为违规。</blockquote>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","AAPL":"苹果",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122990114","content_text":"According to the investment banking giant, the current stock market valuations are substantially correct.\nWith many stock markets reaching new highs, record issuances and a large number of deals in a row, fears that the markets may develop financial bubbles are also mounting. To help investors understand and avoid risks, Goldman Sachs has published a Global Strategy Paper which examines their characteristics and dangers, drawing the conclusion that current markets only present a few of the recurring features associated with bubbles. For example, there is no doubt that exceptionally-low interest rates can induce excessive risk-taking, but private sector finances are robust, thus reducing the chances of systemic risk in the absence of significant financial leverage, with the exception of government debts.\nNeither Bubbles Nor Bear Market In Sight: According to Goldman Sachs, the initial phase of a recovery business cycle also suggests that the risk of impending bubbles, with their associated systemic risk, is relatively low. The investment company brings the example of Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. stocks which, unlike in 2000, are not to be considered in bubble territory, since their respective fundamentals justify such high prices. The final verdict of the long and detailed analysis proposed by Goldman Sachs' \"guide to bubbles\" is that there are signs of complacency and high optimism in the market, but the key factors driving it and the cycle of economic recovery being just at the beginning seem to suggest that we are far from the explosion of a bubble. Moreover, as it can be evinced by the table below created by Goldman Sachs itself, bear market seems to be still in hibernation.\nBubble characteristics and related risks\nAbsence Of Any Significant Leverage: Although Goldman admits the presence of pockets of overvaluations on the stock market, with some parts of it making adjustments consistent with the evolution of interest rates, there are no recurring features of bubbles, not even partial ones. Goldman particularly emphasizes the absence of any significant leverage - the only exception being the public sector, for it judges that the financial system stability risks are relatively low.\nHigh Prices May Be Justified:Goldman's paper quotes Charles Mackay, who observed - already in 1841 - how human beings often \"think\" like a flock, but then do not necessarily behave as such when they finally menage to slowly grasp the meaning of things. Concerning the recent alarm triggered, by the Chinese regulator Guo Shuging, about bubbles swelling in the US and Europe, the analysis states that excessive prices of a single stock or applied to a limited part of the market do not necessarily indicate a systemic risk. Besides, not every swift price rise is related to a bubble, since it sometimes only signals a strong, genuine increase in value, justified by fundamentals.\nPsychological Contagion: Psychology is a chief factor, as Robert Shiller pointed out in his book \"Irrational Exuberance\", published in 2000 and inspired by a famous quote from the then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who defined a bubble as the situation in which the news of rising prices provokes a contagion effect that spreads among investors, triggering a mechanism of envy for the success of others.\nA Handful Of Recurring Ingredients: This sort of contagion has occurred several times over the centuries in human history - from the Dutch tulips of the 1600s to the bubbles of the South Seas and the Mississippi in Great Britain and France in the 1700s, not to mention the more recent Internet and subprime mortgage bubble, and passing through the \"railway\" bubble of last century in the United States. According to Goldman, the ultimate ingredients are few and never change: prices unanchored from reality, a justifying attitude, market concentration, widespread speculation, excess of leverage, the narration of being on the threshold of a new era and an end-of-cycle economic boom, all seasoned with scandals and behavior irregularities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/353570295"}