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2021-03-31

The stock market could double by 2030 because COVID has ‘utterly changed’ the policy environment: analyst<blockquote>分析师：到 2030 年，股市可能会翻一番，因为 COVID “彻底改变 ”了政策环境</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":354896539,"tweetId":"354896539","gmtCreate":1617156203321,"gmtModify":1634522360697,"author":{"id":3554116633446697,"idStr":"3554116633446697","authorId":3554116633446697,"authorIdStr":"3554116633446697","name":"sheldonkwek","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d30f13babe096fd89c2fe2e110b64eb","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":17,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>X</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>X</body></html>","text":"X","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354896539","repostId":1162553700,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162553700","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617156091,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162553700?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-31 10:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market could double by 2030 because COVID has ‘utterly changed’ the policy environment: analyst<blockquote>分析师： 到 2030 年，股市可能会翻一番，因为 COVID “彻底改变 ”了政策环境</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162553700","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"What’s a stock-market prognosticator to do when the S&P 500 index hits his 10-year target — but does","content":"What’s a stock-market prognosticator to do when the S&amp;P 500 index hits his 10-year target — but does so with 8 1/2 years still on the clock?<blockquote>当标普500指数达到 10 年目标时，股市预测者该怎么办？</blockquote>That was the conundrum faced by Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, co-head of the portfolio strategy team at Bernstein Research, as the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.32%advanced on the 4,000 level — the target he had put in place in 2019 for the S&amp;P 500 to hit by the end of the current decade.<blockquote>这是 Bernstein Research 投资组合策略团队联席主管 Inigo Fraser-Jenkins 面临的难题，因为标准普尔 500SPX 指数在 4,000 点水平上涨了 0.32%——这是他在 2019 年为标普500设定的目标到当前十年结束。</blockquote>Making the dilemma more interesting, Bernstein’s Alla Harmsworth, also co-head of the portfolio strategy team, in 2019 had called for the large-cap benchmarkto end the decade at 8,000.<blockquote>伯恩斯坦公司（Bernstein）的阿拉-哈姆斯沃斯（Alla Harmsworth）也是投资组合策略团队的联席负责人，她在 2019 年呼吁大盘股基准在 8000 点结束这十年。</blockquote>“Of course, having got to 4,000 doesn’t necessarily mean that I have lost the argument. But the idea that the nominal level of the S&amp;P will be the same eight-and-a-half years hence seems too horrible an outcome to countenance,” Fraser-Jenkins wrote.<blockquote>“当然，达到 4000 点并不一定意味着我输了。但认为标准普尔指数的名义水平将在八年半内保持不变的想法似乎是一个太可怕的结果，”弗雷泽-詹金斯写道。</blockquote>The more important point, he said, is that it’s likely “too horrible for politicians and other policy makers to countenance, at least if they want to persist in the notion that individuals need to carry the risk of saving for their retirement,” he wrote. “Thus, given those alternatives I find it easier to accept that I was wrong, so I am belatedly changing my view to agree with that of my colleague and taking 8,000 as our S&amp;P target for the end of the 2020s.”<blockquote>他说，更重要的一点是，这可能 “对政治家和其他政策制定者来说太可怕了，至少如果他们想坚持认为个人需要承担为退休储蓄的风险”，他写道。“因此，考虑到这些选择，我发现更容易接受我错了，所以我姗姗来迟地改变了我的观点，同意我同事的观点，并将 8000 点作为我们 2020 年代末的标准普尔目标。”</blockquote>The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t cleared 4,000 just yet, but it’s come close, finishing at a record 3,974.54 on Friday. On Tuesday,the index fell0.3% to close near 3,959. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.31%shed around 103 points, or 0.3%, a day after eking out a record close of its own, while the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,-0.11%gave up 0.1%.<blockquote>标普500尚未突破 4000 点，但已接近尾声，周五以创纪录的 3974.54 点收盘。周二，该指数下跌0.3%，收于3959点附近。道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA),-0.31%，一天后下跌约 103 点，跌幅 0.3%，创下收盘纪录，而纳斯达克综合指数 (DJIA),-0.11%，下跌 0.1%。</blockquote>Fraser-Jenkins argued that the policy environment has “utterly changed” as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Not all of those changes will be positive for equities, “but the most important point is that for the first time in at least a decade there is a plausible case for inflation,” he wrote.<blockquote>Fraser-Jenkins 认为，由于 COVID-19 大流行，政策环境 “彻底改变”。并非所有这些变化都对股市有利，“但最重要的一点是，至少十年来，通货膨胀首次出现了合理的理由，”他写道。</blockquote>While “unanchored” inflation would be a threat to the outlook, a moderate level of inflation would be positive, he said. Moreover, there’s also a good change that interest rates will rise more slowly in response to inflation, he said, while the acceptance of “semi-permanent higher debt” and massive direct government aid, such as fiscal stimulus checks, work-furlough programs or infrastructure investment, are things that would have been much less likely had there been no pandemic.<blockquote>他说，虽然 “无锚定 ”通胀将对前景构成威胁，但适度的通胀水平将是积极的。此外，他说，利率将随着通货膨胀而上升得更慢，这也是一个好的变化，而如果没有大流行病，接受 “半永久性的更高债务 ”和大规模的直接政府援助（如财政刺激支票、工作休假计划或基础设施投资）的可能性就会小得多。</blockquote>In the same note, the analysts observed that while stock valuations would appear to be an impediment to returns — the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio at 36 times earnings is at the top end of its 120-year range — valuation has failed to be a guide for equity returns for more than a decade, a point Harmsworth had argued in 2019.<blockquote>在同一份报告中，分析师观察到，虽然股票估值似乎会成为回报的障碍——席勒市盈率为 36 倍，处于 120 年范围的上限——但估值未能成为股票回报的指南十多年来，哈姆斯沃斯在 2019 年提出了这一点。</blockquote>What Biden’s First 100 Days Mean For You and Your<blockquote>拜登的头100天对你和你的家人意味着什么</blockquote>“Policy has trumped valuation,” they said. “Moreover, the lack of other appealing assets that offer positive real returns means flows into equity are likely to continue, ‘TINA’ is not enough to make a fundamental justification for returns, but it can beget significant flow,” they wrote, referring to the acronym for “there is no alternative,” or the argument that yield-seeking investors have little choice but to plow money into equities due to low bond yields.<blockquote>“他们说：”政策胜过估值。“此外，由于缺乏其他有吸引力的、能提供正实际回报的资产，这意味着流入股票的资金可能会继续下去，'蒂娜'不足以成为回报的根本理由，但它可以引发大量资金流入，”他们写道，指的是 “别无选择 ”的首字母缩写，或者说，由于债券收益率低，寻求收益的投资者别无选择，只能将资金投入股票。</blockquote>At the same time, the analysts warned that a bullish stock-market target doesn’t obviate the need for investors to break away from the traditional 60%/40% split between stocks and bonds, reiterating their call for a portfolio model that would tend to have higher allocations to real assets and non-fiat currencies such as gold and potentially crypto assets.<blockquote>与此同时，分析师警告说，看涨的股市目标并不排除投资者摆脱传统股票和债券 60%/40% 分割的必要性，重申了他们对投资组合模式的看涨期权，即倾向于更多地配置实物资产和黄金等非法定货币以及潜在的加密资产。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market could double by 2030 because COVID has ‘utterly changed’ the policy environment: analyst<blockquote>分析师： 到 2030 年，股市可能会翻一番，因为 COVID “彻底改变 ”了政策环境</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarket Wacth2021-03-31 10:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWhat’s a stock-market prognosticator to do when the S&amp;P 500 index hits his 10-year target — but does so with 8 1/2 years still on the clock?<blockquote>当标普500指数达到 10 年目标时，股市预测者该怎么办？</blockquote>That was the conundrum faced by Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, co-head of the portfolio strategy team at Bernstein Research, as the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.32%advanced on the 4,000 level — the target he had put in place in 2019 for the S&amp;P 500 to hit by the end of the current decade.<blockquote>这是 Bernstein Research 投资组合策略团队联席主管 Inigo Fraser-Jenkins 面临的难题，因为标准普尔 500SPX 指数在 4,000 点水平上涨了 0.32%——这是他在 2019 年为标普500设定的目标到当前十年结束。</blockquote>Making the dilemma more interesting, Bernstein’s Alla Harmsworth, also co-head of the portfolio strategy team, in 2019 had called for the large-cap benchmarkto end the decade at 8,000.<blockquote>伯恩斯坦公司（Bernstein）的阿拉-哈姆斯沃斯（Alla Harmsworth）也是投资组合策略团队的联席负责人，她在 2019 年呼吁大盘股基准在 8000 点结束这十年。</blockquote>“Of course, having got to 4,000 doesn’t necessarily mean that I have lost the argument. But the idea that the nominal level of the S&amp;P will be the same eight-and-a-half years hence seems too horrible an outcome to countenance,” Fraser-Jenkins wrote.<blockquote>“当然，达到 4000 点并不一定意味着我输了。但认为标准普尔指数的名义水平将在八年半内保持不变的想法似乎是一个太可怕的结果，”弗雷泽-詹金斯写道。</blockquote>The more important point, he said, is that it’s likely “too horrible for politicians and other policy makers to countenance, at least if they want to persist in the notion that individuals need to carry the risk of saving for their retirement,” he wrote. “Thus, given those alternatives I find it easier to accept that I was wrong, so I am belatedly changing my view to agree with that of my colleague and taking 8,000 as our S&amp;P target for the end of the 2020s.”<blockquote>他说，更重要的一点是，这可能 “对政治家和其他政策制定者来说太可怕了，至少如果他们想坚持认为个人需要承担为退休储蓄的风险”，他写道。“因此，考虑到这些选择，我发现更容易接受我错了，所以我姗姗来迟地改变了我的观点，同意我同事的观点，并将 8000 点作为我们 2020 年代末的标准普尔目标。”</blockquote>The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t cleared 4,000 just yet, but it’s come close, finishing at a record 3,974.54 on Friday. On Tuesday,the index fell0.3% to close near 3,959. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.31%shed around 103 points, or 0.3%, a day after eking out a record close of its own, while the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,-0.11%gave up 0.1%.<blockquote>标普500尚未突破 4000 点，但已接近尾声，周五以创纪录的 3974.54 点收盘。周二，该指数下跌0.3%，收于3959点附近。道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA),-0.31%，一天后下跌约 103 点，跌幅 0.3%，创下收盘纪录，而纳斯达克综合指数 (DJIA),-0.11%，下跌 0.1%。</blockquote>Fraser-Jenkins argued that the policy environment has “utterly changed” as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Not all of those changes will be positive for equities, “but the most important point is that for the first time in at least a decade there is a plausible case for inflation,” he wrote.<blockquote>Fraser-Jenkins 认为，由于 COVID-19 大流行，政策环境 “彻底改变”。并非所有这些变化都对股市有利，“但最重要的一点是，至少十年来，通货膨胀首次出现了合理的理由，”他写道。</blockquote>While “unanchored” inflation would be a threat to the outlook, a moderate level of inflation would be positive, he said. Moreover, there’s also a good change that interest rates will rise more slowly in response to inflation, he said, while the acceptance of “semi-permanent higher debt” and massive direct government aid, such as fiscal stimulus checks, work-furlough programs or infrastructure investment, are things that would have been much less likely had there been no pandemic.<blockquote>他说，虽然 “无锚定 ”通胀将对前景构成威胁，但适度的通胀水平将是积极的。此外，他说，利率将随着通货膨胀而上升得更慢，这也是一个好的变化，而如果没有大流行病，接受 “半永久性的更高债务 ”和大规模的直接政府援助（如财政刺激支票、工作休假计划或基础设施投资）的可能性就会小得多。</blockquote>In the same note, the analysts observed that while stock valuations would appear to be an impediment to returns — the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio at 36 times earnings is at the top end of its 120-year range — valuation has failed to be a guide for equity returns for more than a decade, a point Harmsworth had argued in 2019.<blockquote>在同一份报告中，分析师观察到，虽然股票估值似乎会成为回报的障碍——席勒市盈率为 36 倍，处于 120 年范围的上限——但估值未能成为股票回报的指南十多年来，哈姆斯沃斯在 2019 年提出了这一点。</blockquote>What Biden’s First 100 Days Mean For You and Your<blockquote>拜登的头100天对你和你的家人意味着什么</blockquote>“Policy has trumped valuation,” they said. “Moreover, the lack of other appealing assets that offer positive real returns means flows into equity are likely to continue, ‘TINA’ is not enough to make a fundamental justification for returns, but it can beget significant flow,” they wrote, referring to the acronym for “there is no alternative,” or the argument that yield-seeking investors have little choice but to plow money into equities due to low bond yields.<blockquote>“他们说：”政策胜过估值。“此外，由于缺乏其他有吸引力的、能提供正实际回报的资产，这意味着流入股票的资金可能会继续下去，'蒂娜'不足以成为回报的根本理由，但它可以引发大量资金流入，”他们写道，指的是 “别无选择 ”的首字母缩写，或者说，由于债券收益率低，寻求收益的投资者别无选择，只能将资金投入股票。</blockquote>At the same time, the analysts warned that a bullish stock-market target doesn’t obviate the need for investors to break away from the traditional 60%/40% split between stocks and bonds, reiterating their call for a portfolio model that would tend to have higher allocations to real assets and non-fiat currencies such as gold and potentially crypto assets.<blockquote>与此同时，分析师警告说，看涨的股市目标并不排除投资者摆脱传统股票和债券 60%/40% 分割的必要性，重申了他们对投资组合模式的看涨期权，即倾向于更多地配置实物资产和黄金等非法定货币以及潜在的加密资产。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-one-stock-market-analyst-now-expects-the-s-p-500-to-double-by-2030-11617126976?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-one-stock-market-analyst-now-expects-the-s-p-500-to-double-by-2030-11617126976?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162553700","content_text":"What’s a stock-market prognosticator to do when the S&P 500 index hits his 10-year target — but does so with 8 1/2 years still on the clock?That was the conundrum faced by Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, co-head of the portfolio strategy team at Bernstein Research, as the S&P 500SPX,-0.32%advanced on the 4,000 level — the target he had put in place in 2019 for the S&P 500 to hit by the end of the current decade.Making the dilemma more interesting, Bernstein’s Alla Harmsworth, also co-head of the portfolio strategy team, in 2019 had called for the large-cap benchmarkto end the decade at 8,000.“Of course, having got to 4,000 doesn’t necessarily mean that I have lost the argument. But the idea that the nominal level of the S&P will be the same eight-and-a-half years hence seems too horrible an outcome to countenance,” Fraser-Jenkins wrote.The more important point, he said, is that it’s likely “too horrible for politicians and other policy makers to countenance, at least if they want to persist in the notion that individuals need to carry the risk of saving for their retirement,” he wrote. “Thus, given those alternatives I find it easier to accept that I was wrong, so I am belatedly changing my view to agree with that of my colleague and taking 8,000 as our S&P target for the end of the 2020s.”The S&P 500 hasn’t cleared 4,000 just yet, but it’s come close, finishing at a record 3,974.54 on Friday. On Tuesday,the index fell0.3% to close near 3,959. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.31%shed around 103 points, or 0.3%, a day after eking out a record close of its own, while the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,-0.11%gave up 0.1%.Fraser-Jenkins argued that the policy environment has “utterly changed” as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Not all of those changes will be positive for equities, “but the most important point is that for the first time in at least a decade there is a plausible case for inflation,” he wrote.While “unanchored” inflation would be a threat to the outlook, a moderate level of inflation would be positive, he said. Moreover, there’s also a good change that interest rates will rise more slowly in response to inflation, he said, while the acceptance of “semi-permanent higher debt” and massive direct government aid, such as fiscal stimulus checks, work-furlough programs or infrastructure investment, are things that would have been much less likely had there been no pandemic.In the same note, the analysts observed that while stock valuations would appear to be an impediment to returns — the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio at 36 times earnings is at the top end of its 120-year range — valuation has failed to be a guide for equity returns for more than a decade, a point Harmsworth had argued in 2019.What Biden’s First 100 Days Mean For You and Your“Policy has trumped valuation,” they said. “Moreover, the lack of other appealing assets that offer positive real returns means flows into equity are likely to continue, ‘TINA’ is not enough to make a fundamental justification for returns, but it can beget significant flow,” they wrote, referring to the acronym for “there is no alternative,” or the argument that yield-seeking investors have little choice but to plow money into equities due to low bond yields.At the same time, the analysts warned that a bullish stock-market target doesn’t obviate the need for investors to break away from the traditional 60%/40% split between stocks and bonds, reiterating their call for a portfolio model that would tend to have higher allocations to real assets and non-fiat currencies such as gold and potentially crypto assets.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/354896539"}