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2021-03-31
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The stock market could double by 2030 because COVID has ‘utterly changed’ the policy environment: analyst<blockquote>分析师：到2030年，股市可能会翻一番，因为新冠疫情“彻底改变”了政策环境</blockquote>
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But the idea that the nominal level of the S&P will be the same eight-and-a-half years hence seems too horrible an outcome to countenance,” Fraser-Jenkins wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“当然，达到4000点并不一定意味着我输掉了这场争论。但八年半后标准普尔指数的名义水平将保持不变的想法似乎是一个太可怕的结果，无法支持，”弗雷泽-詹金斯写道。</blockquote></p><p>The more important point, he said, is that it’s likely “too horrible for politicians and other policy makers to countenance, at least if they want to persist in the notion that individuals need to carry the risk of saving for their retirement,” he wrote. “Thus, given those alternatives I find it easier to accept that I was wrong, so I am belatedly changing my view to agree with that of my colleague and taking 8,000 as our S&P target for the end of the 2020s.”</p><p><blockquote>他说，更重要的一点是，这可能“对于政治家和其他政策制定者来说太可怕了，无法支持，至少如果他们想坚持个人需要承担退休储蓄风险的观念，”他写道。“因此，考虑到这些替代方案，我发现更容易接受我错了，因此我姗姗来迟地改变了我的观点，同意我同事的观点，并将8,000点作为我们2020年代末的标准普尔目标。”</blockquote></p><p>The S&P 500 hasn’t cleared 4,000 just yet, but it’s come close, finishing at a record 3,974.54 on Friday. On Tuesday,the index fell0.3% to close near 3,959. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.31%shed around 103 points, or 0.3%, a day after eking out a record close of its own, while the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,-0.11%gave up 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500尚未突破4,000点，但已经接近，周五收于创纪录的3,974.54点。周二，该指数下跌0.3%，收于3,959点附近。道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA,-0.31%在创下收盘纪录一天后下跌约103点，即0.3%，而纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-0.11%下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p>Fraser-Jenkins argued that the policy environment has “utterly changed” as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Not all of those changes will be positive for equities, “but the most important point is that for the first time in at least a decade there is a plausible case for inflation,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>Fraser-Jenkins认为，由于COVID-19大流行，政策环境已经“彻底改变”。并非所有这些变化都对股市有利，“但最重要的一点是，至少十年来第一次出现了通胀的合理理由，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p>While “unanchored” inflation would be a threat to the outlook, a moderate level of inflation would be positive, he said. Moreover, there’s also a good change that interest rates will rise more slowly in response to inflation, he said, while the acceptance of “semi-permanent higher debt” and massive direct government aid, such as fiscal stimulus checks, work-furlough programs or infrastructure investment, are things that would have been much less likely had there been no pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，虽然“无锚”通胀将对前景构成威胁，但适度的通胀水平将是积极的。此外，他表示，还有一个好的变化是，利率将因通胀而上升得更慢，同时接受“半永久性的更高债务”和大规模的直接政府援助，例如财政刺激支票、工作休假计划或如果没有大流行，基础设施投资的可能性就会小得多。</blockquote></p><p>In the same note, the analysts observed that while stock valuations would appear to be an impediment to returns — the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio at 36 times earnings is at the top end of its 120-year range — valuation has failed to be a guide for equity returns for more than a decade, a point Harmsworth had argued in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>在同一份报告中，分析师观察到，虽然股票估值似乎是回报的障碍——席勒市盈率为36倍，处于120年区间的上限——但估值却未能成为十多年来股票回报的指南，这是哈姆斯沃斯在2019年提出的观点。</blockquote></p><p>What Biden’s First 100 Days Mean For You and Your</p><p><blockquote>拜登的头100天对您和您的家人意味着什么</blockquote></p><p>“Policy has trumped valuation,” they said. “Moreover, the lack of other appealing assets that offer positive real returns means flows into equity are likely to continue, ‘TINA’ is not enough to make a fundamental justification for returns, but it can beget significant flow,” they wrote, referring to the acronym for “there is no alternative,” or the argument that yield-seeking investors have little choice but to plow money into equities due to low bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>“政策战胜了估值，”他们表示。他们写道：“此外，缺乏其他提供正实际回报的有吸引力的资产意味着流入股票的资金可能会继续，‘蒂娜’不足以为回报提供基本理由，但它可以产生大量资金。”指的是“别无选择”的缩写，或者认为由于债券收益率较低，寻求收益的投资者别无选择，只能将资金投入股票。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time, the analysts warned that a bullish stock-market target doesn’t obviate the need for investors to break away from the traditional 60%/40% split between stocks and bonds, reiterating their call for a portfolio model that would tend to have higher allocations to real assets and non-fiat currencies such as gold and potentially crypto assets.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，分析师警告称，看涨的股市目标并不排除投资者摆脱股票和债券之间传统的60%/40%分割的需要，并重申了他们对投资组合模型的看涨期权。倾向于对实物资产和非法定货币（例如黄金和潜在的加密资产）进行更高的配置。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market could double by 2030 because COVID has ‘utterly changed’ the policy environment: analyst<blockquote>分析师：到2030年，股市可能会翻一番，因为新冠疫情“彻底改变”了政策环境</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Wacth</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-31 10:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What’s a stock-market prognosticator to do when the S&P 500 index hits his 10-year target — but does so with 8 1/2 years still on the clock?</p><p><blockquote>当标普500指数达到他的10年目标时，一个股市预测者该怎么办——但距离他还有8年半的时间？</blockquote></p><p>That was the conundrum faced by Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, co-head of the portfolio strategy team at Bernstein Research, as the S&P 500SPX,-0.32%advanced on the 4,000 level — the target he had put in place in 2019 for the S&P 500 to hit by the end of the current decade.</p><p><blockquote>这是Bernstein Research投资组合策略团队联席主管Inigo Fraser-Jenkins面临的难题，因为标准普尔500SPX指数上涨了-0.32%，突破了4,000点水平——这是他在2019年为标普500设定的目标到本十年末。</blockquote></p><p>Making the dilemma more interesting, Bernstein’s Alla Harmsworth, also co-head of the portfolio strategy team, in 2019 had called for the large-cap benchmarkto end the decade at 8,000.</p><p><blockquote>伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)的阿拉·哈姆斯沃斯(Alla Harmsworth)也是投资组合策略团队的联席主管，他在2019年呼吁大盘股基准在本十年结束时达到8,000点，这让这一困境变得更加有趣。</blockquote></p><p>“Of course, having got to 4,000 doesn’t necessarily mean that I have lost the argument. But the idea that the nominal level of the S&P will be the same eight-and-a-half years hence seems too horrible an outcome to countenance,” Fraser-Jenkins wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“当然，达到4000点并不一定意味着我输掉了这场争论。但八年半后标准普尔指数的名义水平将保持不变的想法似乎是一个太可怕的结果，无法支持，”弗雷泽-詹金斯写道。</blockquote></p><p>The more important point, he said, is that it’s likely “too horrible for politicians and other policy makers to countenance, at least if they want to persist in the notion that individuals need to carry the risk of saving for their retirement,” he wrote. “Thus, given those alternatives I find it easier to accept that I was wrong, so I am belatedly changing my view to agree with that of my colleague and taking 8,000 as our S&P target for the end of the 2020s.”</p><p><blockquote>他说，更重要的一点是，这可能“对于政治家和其他政策制定者来说太可怕了，无法支持，至少如果他们想坚持个人需要承担退休储蓄风险的观念，”他写道。“因此，考虑到这些替代方案，我发现更容易接受我错了，因此我姗姗来迟地改变了我的观点，同意我同事的观点，并将8,000点作为我们2020年代末的标准普尔目标。”</blockquote></p><p>The S&P 500 hasn’t cleared 4,000 just yet, but it’s come close, finishing at a record 3,974.54 on Friday. On Tuesday,the index fell0.3% to close near 3,959. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.31%shed around 103 points, or 0.3%, a day after eking out a record close of its own, while the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,-0.11%gave up 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>标普500尚未突破4,000点，但已经接近，周五收于创纪录的3,974.54点。周二，该指数下跌0.3%，收于3,959点附近。道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA,-0.31%在创下收盘纪录一天后下跌约103点，即0.3%，而纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-0.11%下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p>Fraser-Jenkins argued that the policy environment has “utterly changed” as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Not all of those changes will be positive for equities, “but the most important point is that for the first time in at least a decade there is a plausible case for inflation,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>Fraser-Jenkins认为，由于COVID-19大流行，政策环境已经“彻底改变”。并非所有这些变化都对股市有利，“但最重要的一点是，至少十年来第一次出现了通胀的合理理由，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p>While “unanchored” inflation would be a threat to the outlook, a moderate level of inflation would be positive, he said. Moreover, there’s also a good change that interest rates will rise more slowly in response to inflation, he said, while the acceptance of “semi-permanent higher debt” and massive direct government aid, such as fiscal stimulus checks, work-furlough programs or infrastructure investment, are things that would have been much less likely had there been no pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，虽然“无锚”通胀将对前景构成威胁，但适度的通胀水平将是积极的。此外，他表示，还有一个好的变化是，利率将因通胀而上升得更慢，同时接受“半永久性的更高债务”和大规模的直接政府援助，例如财政刺激支票、工作休假计划或如果没有大流行，基础设施投资的可能性就会小得多。</blockquote></p><p>In the same note, the analysts observed that while stock valuations would appear to be an impediment to returns — the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio at 36 times earnings is at the top end of its 120-year range — valuation has failed to be a guide for equity returns for more than a decade, a point Harmsworth had argued in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>在同一份报告中，分析师观察到，虽然股票估值似乎是回报的障碍——席勒市盈率为36倍，处于120年区间的上限——但估值却未能成为十多年来股票回报的指南，这是哈姆斯沃斯在2019年提出的观点。</blockquote></p><p>What Biden’s First 100 Days Mean For You and Your</p><p><blockquote>拜登的头100天对您和您的家人意味着什么</blockquote></p><p>“Policy has trumped valuation,” they said. “Moreover, the lack of other appealing assets that offer positive real returns means flows into equity are likely to continue, ‘TINA’ is not enough to make a fundamental justification for returns, but it can beget significant flow,” they wrote, referring to the acronym for “there is no alternative,” or the argument that yield-seeking investors have little choice but to plow money into equities due to low bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>“政策战胜了估值，”他们表示。他们写道：“此外，缺乏其他提供正实际回报的有吸引力的资产意味着流入股票的资金可能会继续，‘蒂娜’不足以为回报提供基本理由，但它可以产生大量资金。”指的是“别无选择”的缩写，或者认为由于债券收益率较低，寻求收益的投资者别无选择，只能将资金投入股票。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time, the analysts warned that a bullish stock-market target doesn’t obviate the need for investors to break away from the traditional 60%/40% split between stocks and bonds, reiterating their call for a portfolio model that would tend to have higher allocations to real assets and non-fiat currencies such as gold and potentially crypto assets.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，分析师警告称，看涨的股市目标并不排除投资者摆脱股票和债券之间传统的60%/40%分割的需要，并重申了他们对投资组合模型的看涨期权。倾向于对实物资产和非法定货币（例如黄金和潜在的加密资产）进行更高的配置。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-one-stock-market-analyst-now-expects-the-s-p-500-to-double-by-2030-11617126976?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-one-stock-market-analyst-now-expects-the-s-p-500-to-double-by-2030-11617126976?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162553700","content_text":"What’s a stock-market prognosticator to do when the S&P 500 index hits his 10-year target — but does so with 8 1/2 years still on the clock?That was the conundrum faced by Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, co-head of the portfolio strategy team at Bernstein Research, as the S&P 500SPX,-0.32%advanced on the 4,000 level — the target he had put in place in 2019 for the S&P 500 to hit by the end of the current decade.Making the dilemma more interesting, Bernstein’s Alla Harmsworth, also co-head of the portfolio strategy team, in 2019 had called for the large-cap benchmarkto end the decade at 8,000.“Of course, having got to 4,000 doesn’t necessarily mean that I have lost the argument. But the idea that the nominal level of the S&P will be the same eight-and-a-half years hence seems too horrible an outcome to countenance,” Fraser-Jenkins wrote.The more important point, he said, is that it’s likely “too horrible for politicians and other policy makers to countenance, at least if they want to persist in the notion that individuals need to carry the risk of saving for their retirement,” he wrote. “Thus, given those alternatives I find it easier to accept that I was wrong, so I am belatedly changing my view to agree with that of my colleague and taking 8,000 as our S&P target for the end of the 2020s.”The S&P 500 hasn’t cleared 4,000 just yet, but it’s come close, finishing at a record 3,974.54 on Friday. On Tuesday,the index fell0.3% to close near 3,959. The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.31%shed around 103 points, or 0.3%, a day after eking out a record close of its own, while the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,-0.11%gave up 0.1%.Fraser-Jenkins argued that the policy environment has “utterly changed” as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Not all of those changes will be positive for equities, “but the most important point is that for the first time in at least a decade there is a plausible case for inflation,” he wrote.While “unanchored” inflation would be a threat to the outlook, a moderate level of inflation would be positive, he said. Moreover, there’s also a good change that interest rates will rise more slowly in response to inflation, he said, while the acceptance of “semi-permanent higher debt” and massive direct government aid, such as fiscal stimulus checks, work-furlough programs or infrastructure investment, are things that would have been much less likely had there been no pandemic.In the same note, the analysts observed that while stock valuations would appear to be an impediment to returns — the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio at 36 times earnings is at the top end of its 120-year range — valuation has failed to be a guide for equity returns for more than a decade, a point Harmsworth had argued in 2019.What Biden’s First 100 Days Mean For You and Your“Policy has trumped valuation,” they said. “Moreover, the lack of other appealing assets that offer positive real returns means flows into equity are likely to continue, ‘TINA’ is not enough to make a fundamental justification for returns, but it can beget significant flow,” they wrote, referring to the acronym for “there is no alternative,” or the argument that yield-seeking investors have little choice but to plow money into equities due to low bond yields.At the same time, the analysts warned that a bullish stock-market target doesn’t obviate the need for investors to break away from the traditional 60%/40% split between stocks and bonds, reiterating their call for a portfolio model that would tend to have higher allocations to real assets and non-fiat currencies such as gold and potentially crypto assets.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/354896539"}
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