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2021-03-26
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5 signs the labor market is set to blast off<blockquote>劳动力市场即将起飞的5个迹象</blockquote>
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Comment and likee plsss!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358710430","repostId":1153068759,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153068759","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616729122,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153068759?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 11:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 signs the labor market is set to blast off<blockquote>劳动力市场即将起飞的5个迹象</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153068759","media":"yahoo","summary":"The labor market is on the launch pad.\nSigns of ignition emerged Thursday asjobless claims fell to t","content":"<p>The labor market is on the launch pad.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力市场正处于发射台上。</blockquote></p><p> Signs of ignition emerged Thursday asjobless claims fell to the lowestthey’ve been since the pandemic started. Unemployment claims for the week ending March 13 were 684,000, vs. 730,000 expected.</p><p><blockquote>周四，随着初请失业金人数降至大流行开始以来的最低水平，出现了点燃的迹象。截至3月13日当周申请失业救济人数为684,000人，预期为730,000人。</blockquote></p><p> In a note this week, Renaissance Macro Research's Neil Dutta outlined five bullish indicators that indicate the labor market “really is picking up steam right now,” as vaccinations ramp up and temperatures warm up — along with the economy.</p><p><blockquote>Renaissance Macro Research的尼尔·杜塔(Neil Dutta)在本周的一份报告中概述了五个看涨指标，表明随着疫苗接种的增加和气温以及经济的升温，劳动力市场“现在确实正在加速”。</blockquote></p><p> “I would guess that we see jobs growth at least over one million in March,” Dutta wrote. “The current consensus is around 550,000 though only 11 folks have their estimates into Bloomberg. I would take the over.”</p><p><blockquote>杜塔写道：“我猜三月份就业岗位增长至少超过100万个。”“目前的共识约为55万人，尽管只有11人向彭博社做出了估计。我会接手。”</blockquote></p><p> In a recent note, JPMorgan’s job tracker based on alternative data sources showed a clear acceleration in total employment.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的一份报告中，摩根大通基于替代数据源的就业跟踪显示，总就业人数明显加速。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71deaaa4b933bc16feacc0ebdfe37f7a\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tracking alternative data shows jobs picking up. (JPM)<b>Five good signs</b></p><p><blockquote>跟踪替代数据显示就业机会正在增加。（摩根大通）<b>五个好兆头</b></blockquote></p><p> Dutta’s five signs and JPMorgan’s “alternative data,” paint a picture of future numbers that look bullish.</p><p><blockquote>杜塔的五个迹象和摩根大通的“另类数据”描绘了一幅看起来看涨的未来数字。</blockquote></p><p> The Census Bureau’s Small Business Pulse Survey showed a 7.1% increase in paid employment in mid-March, as well as a similar increase in hours worked.</p><p><blockquote>人口普查局的小企业脉搏调查显示，3月中旬带薪就业增长了7.1%，工作时间也有类似的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “I haven’t seen numbers like this since last summer,” Dutta wrote. “Recall that average jobs growth in Q3 2020 was 1.174 million per month.”</p><p><blockquote>“自去年夏天以来，我还没有见过这样的数字，”杜塔写道。“回想一下，2020年第三季度的平均就业岗位增长为每月117.4万个。”</blockquote></p><p> Two other bullish surveys tell a similar story. The Dallas Fed’s Real Time Population Survey showed employment rates for working-age adults spiked from mid-February to mid-March, from 68.6% to 70.9% and a similar drop in the unemployment rate also occurred. The Household Pulse Survey told a similar story of a spike in job growth, with double the increase of a “normal March,” Dutta noted.</p><p><blockquote>另外两项看涨调查也讲述了类似的故事。达拉斯联储的实时人口调查显示，从2月中旬到3月中旬，工作年龄成年人的就业率飙升，从68.6%飙升至70.9%，失业率也出现了类似的下降。杜塔指出，家庭脉搏调查讲述了一个类似的就业增长激增的故事，增幅是“正常三月”的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> The American Staffing Association’s Staffing Index was also up 11.2%. “Taking the index at face value implies that temp-help employment has reversed all of its pandemic-related job losses,” Dutta wrote.</p><p><blockquote>美国人事协会的人事指数也上涨了11.2%。杜塔写道：“从表面上看，该指数意味着临时帮助就业已经扭转了所有与大流行相关的失业。”</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, people are driving a lot more. Google’s mobility data shows a spike in movement in the leisure and hospitality sector – hit especially hard during the pandemic – now at last July’s volume.</p><p><blockquote>最后，人们开车的次数越来越多。谷歌的移动数据显示，休闲和酒店行业的移动量激增——在疫情期间受到的打击尤其严重——目前达到了去年7月的水平。</blockquote></p><p> “We have not seen improvement this rapid since the initial reopening in the economy last spring,” Dutta wrote. “So, the decline in COVID cases is likely pushing up employment as businesses restart.”</p><p><blockquote>杜塔写道：“自去年春天经济首次重新开放以来，我们还没有看到如此迅速的改善。”“因此，随着企业重启，新冠病例的减少可能会推高就业。”</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts are drawing larger conclusions based on this data – and the predictions are rosy.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师根据这些数据得出了更大的结论——而且预测是乐观的。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America, which revised its GDP growth to 7% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022, up 0.5 percentage points each, wrote that the growth in GDP would also mean a “faster healing in the labor market,” almost a million new jobs a month.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行将2021年GDP增长率修正为7%，2022年为5.5%，各上调0.5个百分点，并写道，GDP的增长也将意味着“劳动力市场的更快复苏”，近100万个新工作岗位一个月。</blockquote></p><p> “Based on our projections, the unemployment rate will reach 4.5% by year-end and slip [under 4%] next summer,” according to a note from Bank of America. “Our forecasts imply a return to the pre-COVID level of jobs by 1Q 2022 and pre-COVID participation rate by the end of next year. This means the employment-to-population will have fully healed by the end of next year.”</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一份报告称：“根据我们的预测，到年底失业率将达到4.5%，明年夏天将下滑至[4%以下]。”“我们的预测意味着，到2022年第一季度，就业将恢复到新冠疫情前的水平，到明年年底，参与率将恢复到新冠疫情前的水平。这意味着到明年年底，就业率将完全恢复。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1584348713084","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 signs the labor market is set to blast off<blockquote>劳动力市场即将起飞的5个迹象</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 signs the labor market is set to blast off<blockquote>劳动力市场即将起飞的5个迹象</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The labor market is on the launch pad.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力市场正处于发射台上。</blockquote></p><p> Signs of ignition emerged Thursday asjobless claims fell to the lowestthey’ve been since the pandemic started. Unemployment claims for the week ending March 13 were 684,000, vs. 730,000 expected.</p><p><blockquote>周四，随着初请失业金人数降至大流行开始以来的最低水平，出现了点燃的迹象。截至3月13日当周申请失业救济人数为684,000人，预期为730,000人。</blockquote></p><p> In a note this week, Renaissance Macro Research's Neil Dutta outlined five bullish indicators that indicate the labor market “really is picking up steam right now,” as vaccinations ramp up and temperatures warm up — along with the economy.</p><p><blockquote>Renaissance Macro Research的尼尔·杜塔(Neil Dutta)在本周的一份报告中概述了五个看涨指标，表明随着疫苗接种的增加和气温以及经济的升温，劳动力市场“现在确实正在加速”。</blockquote></p><p> “I would guess that we see jobs growth at least over one million in March,” Dutta wrote. “The current consensus is around 550,000 though only 11 folks have their estimates into Bloomberg. I would take the over.”</p><p><blockquote>杜塔写道：“我猜三月份就业岗位增长至少超过100万个。”“目前的共识约为55万人，尽管只有11人向彭博社做出了估计。我会接手。”</blockquote></p><p> In a recent note, JPMorgan’s job tracker based on alternative data sources showed a clear acceleration in total employment.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的一份报告中，摩根大通基于替代数据源的就业跟踪显示，总就业人数明显加速。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71deaaa4b933bc16feacc0ebdfe37f7a\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tracking alternative data shows jobs picking up. (JPM)<b>Five good signs</b></p><p><blockquote>跟踪替代数据显示就业机会正在增加。（摩根大通）<b>五个好兆头</b></blockquote></p><p> Dutta’s five signs and JPMorgan’s “alternative data,” paint a picture of future numbers that look bullish.</p><p><blockquote>杜塔的五个迹象和摩根大通的“另类数据”描绘了一幅看起来看涨的未来数字。</blockquote></p><p> The Census Bureau’s Small Business Pulse Survey showed a 7.1% increase in paid employment in mid-March, as well as a similar increase in hours worked.</p><p><blockquote>人口普查局的小企业脉搏调查显示，3月中旬带薪就业增长了7.1%，工作时间也有类似的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “I haven’t seen numbers like this since last summer,” Dutta wrote. “Recall that average jobs growth in Q3 2020 was 1.174 million per month.”</p><p><blockquote>“自去年夏天以来，我还没有见过这样的数字，”杜塔写道。“回想一下，2020年第三季度的平均就业岗位增长为每月117.4万个。”</blockquote></p><p> Two other bullish surveys tell a similar story. The Dallas Fed’s Real Time Population Survey showed employment rates for working-age adults spiked from mid-February to mid-March, from 68.6% to 70.9% and a similar drop in the unemployment rate also occurred. The Household Pulse Survey told a similar story of a spike in job growth, with double the increase of a “normal March,” Dutta noted.</p><p><blockquote>另外两项看涨调查也讲述了类似的故事。达拉斯联储的实时人口调查显示，从2月中旬到3月中旬，工作年龄成年人的就业率飙升，从68.6%飙升至70.9%，失业率也出现了类似的下降。杜塔指出，家庭脉搏调查讲述了一个类似的就业增长激增的故事，增幅是“正常三月”的两倍。</blockquote></p><p> The American Staffing Association’s Staffing Index was also up 11.2%. “Taking the index at face value implies that temp-help employment has reversed all of its pandemic-related job losses,” Dutta wrote.</p><p><blockquote>美国人事协会的人事指数也上涨了11.2%。杜塔写道：“从表面上看，该指数意味着临时帮助就业已经扭转了所有与大流行相关的失业。”</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, people are driving a lot more. Google’s mobility data shows a spike in movement in the leisure and hospitality sector – hit especially hard during the pandemic – now at last July’s volume.</p><p><blockquote>最后，人们开车的次数越来越多。谷歌的移动数据显示，休闲和酒店行业的移动量激增——在疫情期间受到的打击尤其严重——目前达到了去年7月的水平。</blockquote></p><p> “We have not seen improvement this rapid since the initial reopening in the economy last spring,” Dutta wrote. “So, the decline in COVID cases is likely pushing up employment as businesses restart.”</p><p><blockquote>杜塔写道：“自去年春天经济首次重新开放以来，我们还没有看到如此迅速的改善。”“因此，随着企业重启，新冠病例的减少可能会推高就业。”</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts are drawing larger conclusions based on this data – and the predictions are rosy.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师根据这些数据得出了更大的结论——而且预测是乐观的。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America, which revised its GDP growth to 7% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022, up 0.5 percentage points each, wrote that the growth in GDP would also mean a “faster healing in the labor market,” almost a million new jobs a month.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行将2021年GDP增长率修正为7%，2022年为5.5%，各上调0.5个百分点，并写道，GDP的增长也将意味着“劳动力市场的更快复苏”，近100万个新工作岗位一个月。</blockquote></p><p> “Based on our projections, the unemployment rate will reach 4.5% by year-end and slip [under 4%] next summer,” according to a note from Bank of America. “Our forecasts imply a return to the pre-COVID level of jobs by 1Q 2022 and pre-COVID participation rate by the end of next year. This means the employment-to-population will have fully healed by the end of next year.”</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一份报告称：“根据我们的预测，到年底失业率将达到4.5%，明年夏天将下滑至[4%以下]。”“我们的预测意味着，到2022年第一季度，就业将恢复到新冠疫情前的水平，到明年年底，参与率将恢复到新冠疫情前的水平。这意味着到明年年底，就业率将完全恢复。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-signs-the-labor-market-is-set-to-blast-off-172355233.html\">yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-signs-the-labor-market-is-set-to-blast-off-172355233.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153068759","content_text":"The labor market is on the launch pad.\nSigns of ignition emerged Thursday asjobless claims fell to the lowestthey’ve been since the pandemic started. Unemployment claims for the week ending March 13 were 684,000, vs. 730,000 expected.\nIn a note this week, Renaissance Macro Research's Neil Dutta outlined five bullish indicators that indicate the labor market “really is picking up steam right now,” as vaccinations ramp up and temperatures warm up — along with the economy.\n“I would guess that we see jobs growth at least over one million in March,” Dutta wrote. “The current consensus is around 550,000 though only 11 folks have their estimates into Bloomberg. I would take the over.”\nIn a recent note, JPMorgan’s job tracker based on alternative data sources showed a clear acceleration in total employment.\nTracking alternative data shows jobs picking up. (JPM)Five good signs\nDutta’s five signs and JPMorgan’s “alternative data,” paint a picture of future numbers that look bullish.\nThe Census Bureau’s Small Business Pulse Survey showed a 7.1% increase in paid employment in mid-March, as well as a similar increase in hours worked.\n“I haven’t seen numbers like this since last summer,” Dutta wrote. “Recall that average jobs growth in Q3 2020 was 1.174 million per month.”\nTwo other bullish surveys tell a similar story. The Dallas Fed’s Real Time Population Survey showed employment rates for working-age adults spiked from mid-February to mid-March, from 68.6% to 70.9% and a similar drop in the unemployment rate also occurred. The Household Pulse Survey told a similar story of a spike in job growth, with double the increase of a “normal March,” Dutta noted.\nThe American Staffing Association’s Staffing Index was also up 11.2%. “Taking the index at face value implies that temp-help employment has reversed all of its pandemic-related job losses,” Dutta wrote.\nLastly, people are driving a lot more. Google’s mobility data shows a spike in movement in the leisure and hospitality sector – hit especially hard during the pandemic – now at last July’s volume.\n“We have not seen improvement this rapid since the initial reopening in the economy last spring,” Dutta wrote. “So, the decline in COVID cases is likely pushing up employment as businesses restart.”\nSome analysts are drawing larger conclusions based on this data – and the predictions are rosy.\nBank of America, which revised its GDP growth to 7% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022, up 0.5 percentage points each, wrote that the growth in GDP would also mean a “faster healing in the labor market,” almost a million new jobs a month.\n“Based on our projections, the unemployment rate will reach 4.5% by year-end and slip [under 4%] next summer,” according to a note from Bank of America. “Our forecasts imply a return to the pre-COVID level of jobs by 1Q 2022 and pre-COVID participation rate by the end of next year. This means the employment-to-population will have fully healed by the end of next year.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":28,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/358710430"}
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