gkwok1902
2021-03-26
Please recover
Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看涨股市</blockquote>
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This is not a good scenario for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>股市继续由道琼斯工业平均指数领涨，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于两者之间。对于股票来说，这不是一个好的情况。</blockquote></p><p> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.</p><p><blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军们在军队前面，对市场没有好处（“将军”是通用汽车、通用电气等。–即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅狭窄且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote></p><p> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为一个交易系统来实施。我们通常会看到这反映在广度（现在给出卖出信号）和新高与新低（也是卖出信号）上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.</p><p><blockquote>一件积极的事情是，SPX图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和“修正布林线”仍呈走高趋势。然而，如果标准普尔指数突破3,870点的支撑位，这一上升趋势将受到质疑。从附图可以看出，3725点附近有进一步的支撑。如果这一点被打破，空头显然会掌权。与此同时，近期历史高点3,985点代表阻力位。</blockquote></p><p> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.</p><p><blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已显着减弱并发出卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”</p><p><blockquote>仅股票的看跌-看涨期权比率仍处于2月中旬首次产生的卖出信号，并通过开始快速上涨而加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们可能会说它们“超卖”之前还有很大的走高空间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”</p><p><blockquote>广度在过去两周严重恶化，尤其是上周。3月18日和3月19日，广度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标暴跌。“仅限股票”的广度振荡指标已经跌至超卖区域，但“超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote></p><p> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所广度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的“道琼斯型”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更大。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，累计广度也大幅下降。这不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自3月15日累计A-D线达到历史新高以来，“仅股票”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近10,000期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量10,000期）。</blockquote></p><p> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.</p><p><blockquote>“新高对新低”指标也出现了重大发展。3月23日，52周新低数量超过52周新高，52周新低数量超过100期——这是自去年5月以来首次发生。3月24日再次出现这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.</p><p><blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、广度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX尚未大幅上涨，因此3月4日的“峰值”买入信号仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的趋势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收于2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote></p><p> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果VIX继续跌破该水平，这将是股市的看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).</p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX在过去一年的大幅上涨期间一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的迹象。但维持VIX走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自3月初以来，SPX的已实现波动率（即其20天历史波动率）一直略低于20。因此，已实现波动率上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote></p><p> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标普的已实现和隐含波动率之间不再存在任何显著差异。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构始终保持看涨。VIX期货的交易价格都高于VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也向上倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.</p><p><blockquote>负面逆转的第一个迹象是4月份VIX期货的交易价格高于5月份VIX期货的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.</p><p><blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化无疑令人担忧，因此可以建立小型逆势看跌头寸。然而，标普的趋势仍然更高，VIX的趋势仍然更低——两者都是看涨因素。因此，我们仍然维持“核心”看涨立场，直到这两个趋势被打破。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看涨股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStay bullish on the stock market in the face of some fresh sell signals<blockquote>面对一些新的卖出信号，保持看涨股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 11:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>股市继续由道琼斯工业平均指数领涨，纳斯达克明显落后，标普500指数介于两者之间。对于股票来说，这不是一个好的情况。</blockquote></p><p> There is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.</p><p><blockquote>有一句古老的谚语说，如果将军们在军队前面，对市场没有好处（“将军”是通用汽车、通用电气等。–即过去道琼斯指数的中流砥柱；“军队”是股票的主体）。关键是，如果涨幅狭窄且仅限于最大的机构股，那么麻烦就在前方。</blockquote></p><p> It is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很好的观点，但太模糊了，无法作为一个交易系统来实施。我们通常会看到这反映在广度（现在给出卖出信号）和新高与新低（也是卖出信号）上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46ab28413e089cb3da5f328292ad4e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> One positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.</p><p><blockquote>一件积极的事情是，SPX图表仍处于上升趋势，因为移动平均线和“修正布林线”仍呈走高趋势。然而，如果标准普尔指数突破3,870点的支撑位，这一上升趋势将受到质疑。从附图可以看出，3725点附近有进一步的支撑。如果这一点被打破，空头显然会掌权。与此同时，近期历史高点3,985点代表阻力位。</blockquote></p><p> What is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.</p><p><blockquote>与之前的小幅回调相比，今天的不同之处在于，我们的几个内部指标已显着减弱并发出卖出信号：广度、新高与新低以及仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率。</blockquote></p><p> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”</p><p><blockquote>仅股票的看跌-看涨期权比率仍处于2月中旬首次产生的卖出信号，并通过开始快速上涨而加强。它们在图表上仍然相对较低，这意味着在人们可能会说它们“超卖”之前还有很大的走高空间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfd689fa18eceb515c752afa1cb024f7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9216bd23616405d8464aa44f5baea259\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> Breadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”</p><p><blockquote>广度在过去两周严重恶化，尤其是上周。3月18日和3月19日，广度振荡指标产生了卖出信号，此后这些振荡指标暴跌。“仅限股票”的广度振荡指标已经跌至超卖区域，但“超卖并不意味着买入”。</blockquote></p><p> The NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所广度振荡指标也在走低，但速度要慢得多，因为更积极的“道琼斯型”股票在该振荡指标中的权重更大。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，累计广度也大幅下降。这不是一个信号，但值得注意的是，自3月15日累计A-D线达到历史新高以来，“仅股票”累计上涨-下跌线已经下跌了近10,000期（也就是说，在此期间，将每日数据相加，下跌数量超过上涨数量10,000期）。</blockquote></p><p> A significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.</p><p><blockquote>“新高对新低”指标也出现了重大发展。3月23日，52周新低数量超过52周新高，52周新低数量超过100期——这是自去年5月以来首次发生。3月24日再次出现这种情况。这使得该指标处于卖出信号，直到新高再次占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Countering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.</p><p><blockquote>与看跌看涨期权比率、广度以及新高与新低的负面影响相反，波动性指标仍然普遍看涨。VIX尚未大幅上涨，因此3月4日的“峰值”买入信号仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，VIXVIX,-6.56%的趋势继续走低，因为VIX及其20日移动平均线均低于下降的200日移动平均线。事实上，3月22日，VIX收于2020年2月以来的最低价（18.88）。</blockquote></p><p> If VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果VIX继续跌破该水平，这将是股市的看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d40b1aedd4e9457306d25814439c92\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p><p><blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米兰</blockquote></p><p> As we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).</p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，VIX在过去一年的大幅上涨期间一直保持在如此高的水平，这对许多交易者来说是一个令人担忧的迹象。但维持VIX走高的交易员实际上是正确的，因为自3月初以来，SPX的已实现波动率（即其20天历史波动率）一直略低于20。因此，已实现波动率上升是为了满足隐含波动率，而不是相反（这种情况更常见）。</blockquote></p><p> Now, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果有人想证明看到这两种形式的波动如此之高令人担忧，那就这样吧。但标普的已实现和隐含波动率之间不再存在任何显著差异。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.</p><p><blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构始终保持看涨。VIX期货的交易价格都高于VIX，期限结构在即将到来的夏季向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构在未来六个月也向上倾斜。</blockquote></p><p> The first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.</p><p><blockquote>负面逆转的第一个迹象是4月份VIX期货的交易价格高于5月份VIX期货的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Near-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.</p><p><blockquote>一些内部指标的近期恶化无疑令人担忧，因此可以建立小型逆势看跌头寸。然而，标普的趋势仍然更高，VIX的趋势仍然更低——两者都是看涨因素。因此，我们仍然维持“核心”看涨立场，直到这两个趋势被打破。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stay-bullish-on-the-stock-market-in-the-face-of-some-fresh-sell-signals-01616682019?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100799979","content_text":"The stock market continues to be led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average,with NASDAQ lagging noticeably behind, and the S&P 500 indexcaught somewhere in the middle. This is not a good scenario for stocks.\nThere is an old adage that it is not good for the market if the Generals are out in front of the Army (the “Generals” being General Motors, General Electric, etc. – i.e., the mainstays of the Dow of days gone by; the “Army” being the main body of stocks). The point is that if the advance is narrow and limited to the largest institutional stocks, then trouble lies ahead.\nIt is a good point, but too vague to implement as a trading system. We would normally see that reflected in breadth (which is now giving a sell signal) and new highs vs. new lows (which is also on a sell signal).\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nOne positive thing is that the SPX chart is still in an uptrend, as the moving averages and “modified Bollinger Bands” are still trending higher. However, if the S&P breaks through support at 3,870, that uptrend would be called into question. As one can see from the accompanying chart, there is further support near 3,725. If that is broken, the bears would clearly be in charge. Meanwhile, the recent all-time highs, at 3,985, represent resistance.\nWhat is different today compared to previous minor pullbacks is that several of our internal indicators have weakened considerably and are on sell signals: breadth, new highs vs. new lows, and equity-only put-call ratios.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals that were first generated in mid-February and that have strengthened by beginning to rise rapidly. They are still relatively low on their charts, meaning that there is a lot of room to move higher before one might say they are “oversold.”\nLAWRENCE MCMILLANLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has deteriorated badly over the past two weeks – especially this last week. Sell signals were generated by the breadth oscillators on March 18 and March 19, and those oscillators have plunged since then. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator has already descended into oversold territory, but “oversold doesn’t mean buy.”\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is also moving lower, but at a much slower pace, since the more positive “Dow-type” stocks have a heavier weight in that oscillator.\nMeanwhile, cumulative breadth has fallen sharply as well. That is not a signal, but it is worth noting that the “stocks only” cumulative advance-decline line has fallen almost 10,000 issues since the cumulative A-D line reached an all-time high on March 15 (that is, over that time, summing the daily figures, declines have outnumbered advances by 10,000 issues).\nA significant development has also occurred in the case of the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator. On March 23, new 52-week lows outnumbered new 52-week highs andnew 52-week lows numbered more than 100 issues — the first time that has happened since last May. That was the case again on March 24. That places this indicator on a sell signal until new highs take control once again.\nCountering the negativity of put-call ratios, breadth, and new highs vs. new lows, is the fact that the volatility indicators still remain generally bullish. VIX has not risen substantially (yet), so the “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place.\nMoreover, the trend of VIXVIX,-6.56%continues to be lower, as both VIX and its 20-day moving average are below the declining 200-day moving average. In fact, on March 22, VIX closed at its lowest price (18.88) since February 2020.\nIf VIX should continue to fall below there, it would be a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nAs we’ve noted previously, the fact that VIX has remained so high all during the huge rally over the past year has been a worrisome sign for many traders. But the traders that were keeping VIX higher were actually correct, because realized volatility of SPX (i.e., its 20-day historical volatility) has been just below 20 since early March. Thus, realized volatility rose to meet implied volatility, rather than the other way around (which is more often the case).\nNow, if one wants to make the case that it is worrisome to see both forms of volatility this high, then so be it. But there is no longer any significant difference between the S&P’s realized and implied volatility.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout. VIX futures are all trading at premiums to VIX, and the term structure slopes upward through the coming summer. Similarly, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward through the next six months as well.\nThe first sign of a negative reversal here would be if the April VIX futures traded above the price of May VIX futures.\nNear-term deterioration in some internal indicators is certainly a cause for worry, and small countertrend bearish positions can be taken because of that. However, the S&P’s trend is still higher, and the trend of VIX is still lower – both bullish factors. So we still maintaining a “core” bullish position until those two trends are broken.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/358754632"}
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