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2021-03-22

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Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn "Hotter And Shorter" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将“更热、更短”，因此开始考虑退出早期周期的赢家</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":359126377,"tweetId":"359126377","gmtCreate":1616375454099,"gmtModify":1634526194770,"author":{"id":3566383397179750,"idStr":"3566383397179750","authorId":3566383397179750,"authorIdStr":"3566383397179750","name":"浅水蛟龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b99c9414bb99fc299608c2e49dc1400","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Tiger coin</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Tiger coin</body></html>","text":"Tiger coin","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359126377","repostId":1169559774,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169559774","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616374328,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169559774?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-22 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn \"Hotter And Shorter\" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将“更热、更短”，因此开始考虑退出早期周期的赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169559774","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?COVID-19 brought ","content":"This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?COVID-19 brought the global economy to a sudden stop, while an aggressive policy response drove a rapid recovery. Some investors argue that both were so fast thatconditions never ‘reset’ in the way they usually do during recessions.<blockquote>这个讨论需要从一个显而易见的问题开始：这是一个“新”周期吗？新冠肺炎让全球经济戛然而止，而积极的政策应对推动了快速复苏。一些投资者认为，两者的速度都太快了情况永远不会像经济衰退期间那样“重置”。</blockquote> All cycles have their quirks. The last three US recessions were adjacent to: 1) The largest equity bubble in history; 2) The largest financial crisis since the Great Depression; and 3) A global pandemic. If you’re looking for a 'normal' recession, good luck!<blockquote>所有的周期都有它们的怪癖。美国最近三次衰退毗邻：1）历史上最大的股市泡沫；2）大萧条以来最大的金融危机；和3)全球大流行。如果您正在寻找“正常”衰退，祝您好运！</blockquote> Surprisingly, as different as these three recessions were, they were all preceded by similar phenomena. All three saw an inverted yield curve within ~6 months before they started. All three followed a Fed hiking cycle and core CPI above 2.4%Y. All three were preceded by high consumer confidence, low unemployment and declining equity market breadth.<blockquote>令人惊讶的是，尽管这三次衰退各不相同，但它们之前都有类似的现象。这三家公司在开始前约6个月内都出现了收益率曲线倒挂。这三者都遵循了美联储加息周期，核心CPI同比均高于2.4%。在这三个时期之前，消费者信心高、失业率低和股市广度下降。</blockquote> Those are an awful lot of similarities. And they carry through to the recovery. Since the lows of activity in April 2020, 'normal' early-cycle investment strategies have worked very well. Corporate default rates have been similar to other recessions when measured on a rolling two-year basis. If it walks like a new cycle and talks like a new cycle,we think that investors should treat it like a new cycle.<blockquote>这些有太多的相似之处。他们会一直持续到康复。自2020年4月活动低点以来，“正常”的早期周期投资策略效果非常好。按两年滚动计算，企业违约率与其他衰退相似。如果它走路像新周期，说话像新周期，我们认为投资者应该将其视为一个新的周期。</blockquote> Yet while this cycle has so far followed many 'normal' patterns, its evolution could be unique. For several reasons, in the US and globally, this cycle could burn unusually hot.<blockquote>然而，尽管这一周期迄今为止遵循了许多“正常”模式，但它的演变可能是独一无二的。出于多种原因，在美国和全球范围内，这一周期可能会异常火爆。</blockquote> <ul> <li>The first is stimulus.The global economy is seeing record levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time. 'Unprecedented' is an overused word in our business, but this cycle qualifies and is unique among other post-recessionary periods.<blockquote><ul><li>首先是刺激。全球经济同时出现创纪录水平的财政和货币刺激。在我们的业务中，“前所未有”是一个被过度使用的词，但这个周期在其他衰退后时期中是合格且独特的。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>The second is savings.Savings rates stand at historical highs in the US, Europe and China. While the distribution of these savings is uneven, they provide substantial fuel for consumption. Corporate cash balances are also elevated, a buffer against COVID-19 uncertainty that could find its way into spending as confidence returns.<blockquote><li>二是储蓄。美国、欧洲和中国的储蓄率处于历史高位。虽然这些储蓄的分布不均，但它们为消费提供了大量燃料。企业现金余额也有所增加，这是对COVID-19不确定性的缓冲，随着信心的恢复，这种不确定性可能会影响支出。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Third is the labor market.Our economists note that the majority of recent job losses were in COVID-19-related sectors. If the economy can reopen safely, it seems reasonable that we could see an unusually fast labour normalization as these sectors come back.<blockquote><li>三是劳动力市场。我们的经济学家指出，最近的大部分失业发生在与COVID-19相关的行业。如果经济能够安全地重新开放，随着这些行业的回归，我们可能会看到异常快速的劳动力正常化，这似乎是合理的。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Finally, there is the future path of policy.Global central banks are signalling a strong commitment to supporting growth and returning inflation to more normal levels. Governments are showing little desire to eventually raise taxes or cut spending. Both stances suggest a hotter cycle, less likely to be restrained by policy tightening than the previous expansions.<blockquote><li>最后是政策的未来路径。全球央行正在发出坚定承诺支持增长并将通胀恢复到更正常的水平的信号。各国政府没有表现出最终提高税收或削减支出的意愿。这两种立场都表明了一个更热的周期，与之前的扩张相比，不太可能受到政策收紧的限制。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> For all these reasons, our economists think that growth and inflation will exceed expectations over the next two years.But just like in the cosmos, what burns hotter may also burn shorter.Unlike the long expansions that defined the last 40 years, this one might look more similar to the late 1940s or 1950s.<blockquote>出于所有这些原因，我们的经济学家认为未来两年的增长和通胀将超出预期。但是就像在宇宙中一样，燃烧得更热的东西也可能燃烧得更短。与过去40年的长期扩张不同，这次扩张可能看起来更类似于20世纪40年代末或50年代。</blockquote> Short cycles can still mean good growth and multi-year expansions. The Roaring Twenties saw recessions in 1920, 1923 and 1926 (and, of course, 1929). The US economy grew at an enviable 4% rate between 1947 and 1960, despite recessions in 1948, 1953, 1957 and 1960. Each expansion lasted at least three years.<blockquote>短周期仍然意味着良好的增长和多年的扩张。咆哮的二十年代见证了1920年、1923年和1926年（当然还有1929年）的经济衰退。尽管1948年、1953年、1957年和1960年出现了衰退，但美国经济在1947年至1960年间以令人羡慕的4%的速度增长。每次扩张至少持续了三年。</blockquote> But this does mean that investors need to be more nimble. Different investments work in different parts of the economic cycle.If this cycle burns hotter and shorter, we need to start thinking about rotating out of early-cycle winners.<blockquote>但这确实意味着投资者需要更加灵活。不同的投资在经济周期的不同部分发挥作用。如果这个周期燃烧得更热、更短，我们需要开始考虑轮换出早期周期的赢家。</blockquote> Where should we look? US small-cap versus large-cap equities, copper versus gold and corporate credit are all strategies that we’ve liked given historically strong performance following recessions. But all do less well as the cycle extends. My colleagueMichael Wilson recently downgraded US small caps(seeUS Equity Strategy: Weekly Warm-up: The Cycle vs Liquidity; Downgrading Small Caps; Earnings &gt; Multiple, March 15, 2021), an example of how we are looking to exit some early-cycle strategies.<blockquote>我们应该去哪里找？鉴于经济衰退后的历史强劲表现，美国小盘股与大盘股、铜与黄金以及企业信贷都是我们喜欢的策略。但随着周期的延长，所有这些都表现不佳。我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊最近下调了美国小盘股的评级（见美股策略：周度预热：周期vs流动性；下调小盘股评级；收益&gt;倍数，2021年3月15日），这是我们如何寻求退出一些早期周期策略的一个例子。</blockquote> Sector and regional leadership can also vary significantly as the cycle progresses.Emerging market equities historically do best following a recession, but then lag. Stocks in Europe and Japan have done better as the economy matures.<blockquote>随着周期的进展，部门和区域领导力也可能发生显着变化。从历史上看，新兴市场股市在经济衰退后表现最好，但随后会滞后随着经济的成熟，欧洲和日本的股市表现更好。</blockquote> Will conditions run too hot? One metric I’m following closely is theUS breakeven expectations curve. At the moment, it is reflecting a modest overshoot of inflation over the next 2-5 years...<blockquote>天气会不会太热？我密切关注的一个指标是美国盈亏平衡预期曲线目前，它反映了未来2-5年通胀的适度超调...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18991a80e78a2ab365c583482078a91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... followed by lower levels of inflation thereafter. That would appear to be exactly what the Fed hopes to deliver, wrapped up neatly with a nice little bow.<blockquote>...此后通胀水平较低。这似乎正是美联储希望提供的，用一个漂亮的小蝴蝶结整齐地包裹着。</blockquote> As long as that curve remains inverted, the market is signalling that inflationary pressure will be transitory, and there is little need for central banks to sharply change tack. Maybe this is correct. Maybe it is an example of expectations being driven by recent experience. Either way, it’s an important dynamic to watch.<blockquote>只要该曲线保持倒挂，市场就表明通胀压力将是暂时的，央行几乎没有必要大幅改变策略。也许这是正确的。也许这是一个由最近的经验驱动的期望的例子。不管怎样，这都是一个值得关注的重要动态。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn \"Hotter And Shorter\" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将“更热、更短”，因此开始考虑退出早期周期的赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn \"Hotter And Shorter\" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners<blockquote>摩根士丹利：这个周期将“更热、更短”，因此开始考虑退出早期周期的赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-03-22 08:52\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThis discussion needs to start with an obvious question:Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?COVID-19 brought the global economy to a sudden stop, while an aggressive policy response drove a rapid recovery. Some investors argue that both were so fast thatconditions never ‘reset’ in the way they usually do during recessions.<blockquote>这个讨论需要从一个显而易见的问题开始：这是一个“新”周期吗？新冠肺炎让全球经济戛然而止，而积极的政策应对推动了快速复苏。一些投资者认为，两者的速度都太快了情况永远不会像经济衰退期间那样“重置”。</blockquote> All cycles have their quirks. The last three US recessions were adjacent to: 1) The largest equity bubble in history; 2) The largest financial crisis since the Great Depression; and 3) A global pandemic. If you’re looking for a 'normal' recession, good luck!<blockquote>所有的周期都有它们的怪癖。美国最近三次衰退毗邻：1）历史上最大的股市泡沫；2）大萧条以来最大的金融危机；和3)全球大流行。如果您正在寻找“正常”衰退，祝您好运！</blockquote> Surprisingly, as different as these three recessions were, they were all preceded by similar phenomena. All three saw an inverted yield curve within ~6 months before they started. All three followed a Fed hiking cycle and core CPI above 2.4%Y. All three were preceded by high consumer confidence, low unemployment and declining equity market breadth.<blockquote>令人惊讶的是，尽管这三次衰退各不相同，但它们之前都有类似的现象。这三家公司在开始前约6个月内都出现了收益率曲线倒挂。这三者都遵循了美联储加息周期，核心CPI同比均高于2.4%。在这三个时期之前，消费者信心高、失业率低和股市广度下降。</blockquote> Those are an awful lot of similarities. And they carry through to the recovery. Since the lows of activity in April 2020, 'normal' early-cycle investment strategies have worked very well. Corporate default rates have been similar to other recessions when measured on a rolling two-year basis. If it walks like a new cycle and talks like a new cycle,we think that investors should treat it like a new cycle.<blockquote>这些有太多的相似之处。他们会一直持续到康复。自2020年4月活动低点以来，“正常”的早期周期投资策略效果非常好。按两年滚动计算，企业违约率与其他衰退相似。如果它走路像新周期，说话像新周期，我们认为投资者应该将其视为一个新的周期。</blockquote> Yet while this cycle has so far followed many 'normal' patterns, its evolution could be unique. For several reasons, in the US and globally, this cycle could burn unusually hot.<blockquote>然而，尽管这一周期迄今为止遵循了许多“正常”模式，但它的演变可能是独一无二的。出于多种原因，在美国和全球范围内，这一周期可能会异常火爆。</blockquote> <ul> <li>The first is stimulus.The global economy is seeing record levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time. 'Unprecedented' is an overused word in our business, but this cycle qualifies and is unique among other post-recessionary periods.<blockquote><ul><li>首先是刺激。全球经济同时出现创纪录水平的财政和货币刺激。在我们的业务中，“前所未有”是一个被过度使用的词，但这个周期在其他衰退后时期中是合格且独特的。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>The second is savings.Savings rates stand at historical highs in the US, Europe and China. While the distribution of these savings is uneven, they provide substantial fuel for consumption. Corporate cash balances are also elevated, a buffer against COVID-19 uncertainty that could find its way into spending as confidence returns.<blockquote><li>二是储蓄。美国、欧洲和中国的储蓄率处于历史高位。虽然这些储蓄的分布不均，但它们为消费提供了大量燃料。企业现金余额也有所增加，这是对COVID-19不确定性的缓冲，随着信心的恢复，这种不确定性可能会影响支出。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Third is the labor market.Our economists note that the majority of recent job losses were in COVID-19-related sectors. If the economy can reopen safely, it seems reasonable that we could see an unusually fast labour normalization as these sectors come back.<blockquote><li>三是劳动力市场。我们的经济学家指出，最近的大部分失业发生在与COVID-19相关的行业。如果经济能够安全地重新开放，随着这些行业的回归，我们可能会看到异常快速的劳动力正常化，这似乎是合理的。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Finally, there is the future path of policy.Global central banks are signalling a strong commitment to supporting growth and returning inflation to more normal levels. Governments are showing little desire to eventually raise taxes or cut spending. Both stances suggest a hotter cycle, less likely to be restrained by policy tightening than the previous expansions.<blockquote><li>最后是政策的未来路径。全球央行正在发出坚定承诺支持增长并将通胀恢复到更正常的水平的信号。各国政府没有表现出最终提高税收或削减支出的意愿。这两种立场都表明了一个更热的周期，与之前的扩张相比，不太可能受到政策收紧的限制。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> For all these reasons, our economists think that growth and inflation will exceed expectations over the next two years.But just like in the cosmos, what burns hotter may also burn shorter.Unlike the long expansions that defined the last 40 years, this one might look more similar to the late 1940s or 1950s.<blockquote>出于所有这些原因，我们的经济学家认为未来两年的增长和通胀将超出预期。但是就像在宇宙中一样，燃烧得更热的东西也可能燃烧得更短。与过去40年的长期扩张不同，这次扩张可能看起来更类似于20世纪40年代末或50年代。</blockquote> Short cycles can still mean good growth and multi-year expansions. The Roaring Twenties saw recessions in 1920, 1923 and 1926 (and, of course, 1929). The US economy grew at an enviable 4% rate between 1947 and 1960, despite recessions in 1948, 1953, 1957 and 1960. Each expansion lasted at least three years.<blockquote>短周期仍然意味着良好的增长和多年的扩张。咆哮的二十年代见证了1920年、1923年和1926年（当然还有1929年）的经济衰退。尽管1948年、1953年、1957年和1960年出现了衰退，但美国经济在1947年至1960年间以令人羡慕的4%的速度增长。每次扩张至少持续了三年。</blockquote> But this does mean that investors need to be more nimble. Different investments work in different parts of the economic cycle.If this cycle burns hotter and shorter, we need to start thinking about rotating out of early-cycle winners.<blockquote>但这确实意味着投资者需要更加灵活。不同的投资在经济周期的不同部分发挥作用。如果这个周期燃烧得更热、更短，我们需要开始考虑轮换出早期周期的赢家。</blockquote> Where should we look? US small-cap versus large-cap equities, copper versus gold and corporate credit are all strategies that we’ve liked given historically strong performance following recessions. But all do less well as the cycle extends. My colleagueMichael Wilson recently downgraded US small caps(seeUS Equity Strategy: Weekly Warm-up: The Cycle vs Liquidity; Downgrading Small Caps; Earnings &gt; Multiple, March 15, 2021), an example of how we are looking to exit some early-cycle strategies.<blockquote>我们应该去哪里找？鉴于经济衰退后的历史强劲表现，美国小盘股与大盘股、铜与黄金以及企业信贷都是我们喜欢的策略。但随着周期的延长，所有这些都表现不佳。我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊最近下调了美国小盘股的评级（见美股策略：周度预热：周期vs流动性；下调小盘股评级；收益&gt;倍数，2021年3月15日），这是我们如何寻求退出一些早期周期策略的一个例子。</blockquote> Sector and regional leadership can also vary significantly as the cycle progresses.Emerging market equities historically do best following a recession, but then lag. Stocks in Europe and Japan have done better as the economy matures.<blockquote>随着周期的进展，部门和区域领导力也可能发生显着变化。从历史上看，新兴市场股市在经济衰退后表现最好，但随后会滞后随着经济的成熟，欧洲和日本的股市表现更好。</blockquote> Will conditions run too hot? One metric I’m following closely is theUS breakeven expectations curve. At the moment, it is reflecting a modest overshoot of inflation over the next 2-5 years...<blockquote>天气会不会太热？我密切关注的一个指标是美国盈亏平衡预期曲线目前，它反映了未来2-5年通胀的适度超调...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18991a80e78a2ab365c583482078a91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... followed by lower levels of inflation thereafter. That would appear to be exactly what the Fed hopes to deliver, wrapped up neatly with a nice little bow.<blockquote>...此后通胀水平较低。这似乎正是美联储希望提供的，用一个漂亮的小蝴蝶结整齐地包裹着。</blockquote> As long as that curve remains inverted, the market is signalling that inflationary pressure will be transitory, and there is little need for central banks to sharply change tack. Maybe this is correct. Maybe it is an example of expectations being driven by recent experience. Either way, it’s an important dynamic to watch.<blockquote>只要该曲线保持倒挂，市场就表明通胀压力将是暂时的，央行几乎没有必要大幅改变策略。也许这是正确的。也许这是一个由最近的经验驱动的期望的例子。不管怎样，这都是一个值得关注的重要动态。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-burn-hotter-and-shoter-so-start-thinking-about-rotating-out-early\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-burn-hotter-and-shoter-so-start-thinking-about-rotating-out-early","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169559774","content_text":"This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?COVID-19 brought the global economy to a sudden stop, while an aggressive policy response drove a rapid recovery. Some investors argue that both were so fast thatconditions never ‘reset’ in the way they usually do during recessions.\nAll cycles have their quirks. The last three US recessions were adjacent to: 1) The largest equity bubble in history; 2) The largest financial crisis since the Great Depression; and 3) A global pandemic. If you’re looking for a 'normal' recession, good luck!\nSurprisingly, as different as these three recessions were, they were all preceded by similar phenomena. All three saw an inverted yield curve within ~6 months before they started. All three followed a Fed hiking cycle and core CPI above 2.4%Y. All three were preceded by high consumer confidence, low unemployment and declining equity market breadth.\nThose are an awful lot of similarities. And they carry through to the recovery. Since the lows of activity in April 2020, 'normal' early-cycle investment strategies have worked very well. Corporate default rates have been similar to other recessions when measured on a rolling two-year basis. If it walks like a new cycle and talks like a new cycle,we think that investors should treat it like a new cycle.\nYet while this cycle has so far followed many 'normal' patterns, its evolution could be unique. For several reasons, in the US and globally, this cycle could burn unusually hot.\n\nThe first is stimulus.The global economy is seeing record levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time. 'Unprecedented' is an overused word in our business, but this cycle qualifies and is unique among other post-recessionary periods.\nThe second is savings.Savings rates stand at historical highs in the US, Europe and China. While the distribution of these savings is uneven, they provide substantial fuel for consumption. Corporate cash balances are also elevated, a buffer against COVID-19 uncertainty that could find its way into spending as confidence returns.\nThird is the labor market.Our economists note that the majority of recent job losses were in COVID-19-related sectors. If the economy can reopen safely, it seems reasonable that we could see an unusually fast labour normalization as these sectors come back.\nFinally, there is the future path of policy.Global central banks are signalling a strong commitment to supporting growth and returning inflation to more normal levels. Governments are showing little desire to eventually raise taxes or cut spending. Both stances suggest a hotter cycle, less likely to be restrained by policy tightening than the previous expansions.\n\nFor all these reasons, our economists think that growth and inflation will exceed expectations over the next two years.But just like in the cosmos, what burns hotter may also burn shorter.Unlike the long expansions that defined the last 40 years, this one might look more similar to the late 1940s or 1950s.\nShort cycles can still mean good growth and multi-year expansions. The Roaring Twenties saw recessions in 1920, 1923 and 1926 (and, of course, 1929). The US economy grew at an enviable 4% rate between 1947 and 1960, despite recessions in 1948, 1953, 1957 and 1960. Each expansion lasted at least three years.\nBut this does mean that investors need to be more nimble. Different investments work in different parts of the economic cycle.If this cycle burns hotter and shorter, we need to start thinking about rotating out of early-cycle winners.\nWhere should we look? US small-cap versus large-cap equities, copper versus gold and corporate credit are all strategies that we’ve liked given historically strong performance following recessions. But all do less well as the cycle extends. My colleagueMichael Wilson recently downgraded US small caps(seeUS Equity Strategy: Weekly Warm-up: The Cycle vs Liquidity; Downgrading Small Caps; Earnings > Multiple, March 15, 2021), an example of how we are looking to exit some early-cycle strategies.\nSector and regional leadership can also vary significantly as the cycle progresses.Emerging market equities historically do best following a recession, but then lag. Stocks in Europe and Japan have done better as the economy matures.\nWill conditions run too hot? One metric I’m following closely is theUS breakeven expectations curve. At the moment, it is reflecting a modest overshoot of inflation over the next 2-5 years...\n\n... followed by lower levels of inflation thereafter. That would appear to be exactly what the Fed hopes to deliver, wrapped up neatly with a nice little bow.\nAs long as that curve remains inverted, the market is signalling that inflationary pressure will be transitory, and there is little need for central banks to sharply change tack. Maybe this is correct. Maybe it is an example of expectations being driven by recent experience. Either way, it’s an important dynamic to watch.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/359126377"}