Unexpected market behaviour_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-03-22

Unexpected market behaviour

When Will Rising Interest Rates Become A Major Problem For The Stock Market?<blockquote>利率上升何时会成为股市的一大难题？</blockquote>

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The reason is that while rising interest rates put","content":"The title of this discussion is a trick question. The reason is that while rising interest rates put downward pressure on some stock market sectors during some periods, it is not clear that rising interest rates bring about major, broad-based stock market declines. After all, the secular equity bull market that began in the early-to-mid 1940s and ended in the mid-to-late 1960s unfolded in parallel with a rising interest-rate trend.<blockquote>这个讨论的标题是一个技巧问题。原因是，虽然利率上升在某些时期给某些股市板块带来了下行压力，但尚不清楚利率上升是否会带来重大的、广泛的股市下跌。毕竟，始于20世纪40年代早期至中期、结束于20世纪60年代中后期的长期股市牛市与利率上升趋势同时展开。</blockquote> The conventional wisdom that rising interest rates eventually become a major problem for the stock market exists for two inter-related reasons. First, there is a strong tendency for major equity market declines to be preceded by a sustained and substantial tightening of monetary conditions. Second, it is common for a substantial tightening of monetary conditions to be accompanied by rising interest rates.<blockquote>传统观点认为，利率上升最终会成为股市的一个主要问题，这有两个相互关联的原因。首先，在股市大幅下跌之前，货币条件往往会持续大幅收紧。第二，货币条件大幅收紧伴随利率上升是很常见的。</blockquote> However, a sustained and substantial tightening of monetary conditions would bring about major weakness in the stock market even if interest rates were low or falling. This, in essence, is what happened during 2007-2008. The corollary is that a rising interest-rate trend would never become a major problem for the overall stock market as long as monetary conditions remained sufficiently accommodative.<blockquote>然而，即使利率处于低位或下降，货币条件的持续大幅收紧也会导致股市大幅疲软。本质上，这就是2007-2008年期间发生的事情。推论是，只要货币条件保持足够宽松，利率上升趋势就永远不会成为整体股市的主要问题。</blockquote> The point is that when assessing the prospects of the stock market we should be more concerned about monetary conditions than interest rates, because it isn’t a given that rising interest rates indicate tightening monetary conditions or that falling interest rates indicate loosening monetary conditions. How, then, do we know the extent to which monetary conditions are tight or loose?<blockquote>关键是，在评估股市前景时，我们应该更关心货币状况而不是利率，因为利率上升表明货币状况收紧或利率下降表明货币状况宽松并不是既定事实。那么，我们如何知道货币条件的收紧或宽松程度呢？</blockquote> One of the most important indicators, albeit not the only useful indicator, is the growth rate of the money supply itself.<blockquote>最重要的指标之一，尽管不是唯一有用的指标，是货币供应量本身的增长率。</blockquote> Good economic theory informs us that rapidly inflating the money supply leads to a period of unsustainable economic vigour called a boom, and that the boom begins to unravel after the monetary inflation rate slows. Over the past 25 years, booms have begun to unravel within 12 months of the year-over-year growth rate of G2 (US plus eurozone) money supply dropping below 6%.<blockquote>好的经济理论告诉我们，货币供应的快速膨胀会导致一段不可持续的经济活力时期，称为繁荣，而在货币通胀率放缓后，繁荣开始瓦解。过去25年，G2（美国加欧元区）货币供应量同比增长率降至6%以下后的12个月内，繁荣就开始瓦解。</blockquote> The following chart shows the year-over-year growth rate of G2 True Money Supply (TMS), with a horizontal red line drawn to mark the 6% growth level mentioned above and vertical red lines drawn to mark the official starting times of US recessions. In the typical sequence, there is a decline in the G2 monetary inflation rate below 6%, followed within 12 months by the start of an economic bust (the unravelling of the monetary-inflation-fuelled boom), followed within 12 months by an official recession.<blockquote>下图显示了G2真实货币供应量（TMS）的同比增长率，水平红线表示上述6%的增长水平，垂直红线表示美国经济衰退的正式开始时间。在典型的顺序中，G2货币通胀率降至6%以下，随后在12个月内开始经济萧条（货币通胀推动的繁荣瓦解），随后在12个月内正式衰退。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84339b0a0a084a7ee75e0ed326ddf3a2\" tg-width=\"521\" tg-height=\"282\"><blockquote></blockquote> The time from a decline in the G2 monetary inflation rate to below 6% to the start of a recession can be two years or even longer, but the broad stock market tends to struggle from the time that the boom begins to unravel. This typically occurs within 12 months of the monetary inflation rate dropping below 6%, regardless of what’s happening with interest rates.<blockquote>从G2货币通胀率下降到6%以下到衰退开始的时间可能需要两年甚至更长，但从繁荣开始瓦解的那一刻起，广泛的股市往往会举步维艰。这通常发生在货币通胀率降至6%以下的12个月内，无论利率如何变化。</blockquote> Now, it’s likely that the unravelling of the current boom will begin with the monetary inflation rate at a higher level than in the past. However, with the G2 TMS growth rate well into all-time high territory and still trending upward it is too soon (to put it mildly) to start preparing for an equity bear market.<blockquote>现在，当前繁荣的瓦解很可能会从货币通胀率高于过去开始。然而，随着G2 TMS增长率进入历史高位并且仍呈上升趋势，现在开始为股市熊市做准备还为时过早（委婉地说）。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1616401723471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When Will Rising Interest Rates Become A Major Problem For The Stock Market?<blockquote>利率上升何时会成为股市的一大难题？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen Will Rising Interest Rates Become A Major Problem For The Stock Market?<blockquote>利率上升何时会成为股市的一大难题？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTSI commentary2021-03-22 16:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe title of this discussion is a trick question. The reason is that while rising interest rates put downward pressure on some stock market sectors during some periods, it is not clear that rising interest rates bring about major, broad-based stock market declines. After all, the secular equity bull market that began in the early-to-mid 1940s and ended in the mid-to-late 1960s unfolded in parallel with a rising interest-rate trend.<blockquote>这个讨论的标题是一个技巧问题。原因是，虽然利率上升在某些时期给某些股市板块带来了下行压力，但尚不清楚利率上升是否会带来重大的、广泛的股市下跌。毕竟，始于20世纪40年代早期至中期、结束于20世纪60年代中后期的长期股市牛市与利率上升趋势同时展开。</blockquote> The conventional wisdom that rising interest rates eventually become a major problem for the stock market exists for two inter-related reasons. First, there is a strong tendency for major equity market declines to be preceded by a sustained and substantial tightening of monetary conditions. Second, it is common for a substantial tightening of monetary conditions to be accompanied by rising interest rates.<blockquote>传统观点认为，利率上升最终会成为股市的一个主要问题，这有两个相互关联的原因。首先，在股市大幅下跌之前，货币条件往往会持续大幅收紧。第二，货币条件大幅收紧伴随利率上升是很常见的。</blockquote> However, a sustained and substantial tightening of monetary conditions would bring about major weakness in the stock market even if interest rates were low or falling. This, in essence, is what happened during 2007-2008. The corollary is that a rising interest-rate trend would never become a major problem for the overall stock market as long as monetary conditions remained sufficiently accommodative.<blockquote>然而，即使利率处于低位或下降，货币条件的持续大幅收紧也会导致股市大幅疲软。本质上，这就是2007-2008年期间发生的事情。推论是，只要货币条件保持足够宽松，利率上升趋势就永远不会成为整体股市的主要问题。</blockquote> The point is that when assessing the prospects of the stock market we should be more concerned about monetary conditions than interest rates, because it isn’t a given that rising interest rates indicate tightening monetary conditions or that falling interest rates indicate loosening monetary conditions. How, then, do we know the extent to which monetary conditions are tight or loose?<blockquote>关键是，在评估股市前景时，我们应该更关心货币状况而不是利率，因为利率上升表明货币状况收紧或利率下降表明货币状况宽松并不是既定事实。那么，我们如何知道货币条件的收紧或宽松程度呢？</blockquote> One of the most important indicators, albeit not the only useful indicator, is the growth rate of the money supply itself.<blockquote>最重要的指标之一，尽管不是唯一有用的指标，是货币供应量本身的增长率。</blockquote> Good economic theory informs us that rapidly inflating the money supply leads to a period of unsustainable economic vigour called a boom, and that the boom begins to unravel after the monetary inflation rate slows. Over the past 25 years, booms have begun to unravel within 12 months of the year-over-year growth rate of G2 (US plus eurozone) money supply dropping below 6%.<blockquote>好的经济理论告诉我们，货币供应的快速膨胀会导致一段不可持续的经济活力时期，称为繁荣，而在货币通胀率放缓后，繁荣开始瓦解。过去25年，G2（美国加欧元区）货币供应量同比增长率降至6%以下后的12个月内，繁荣就开始瓦解。</blockquote> The following chart shows the year-over-year growth rate of G2 True Money Supply (TMS), with a horizontal red line drawn to mark the 6% growth level mentioned above and vertical red lines drawn to mark the official starting times of US recessions. In the typical sequence, there is a decline in the G2 monetary inflation rate below 6%, followed within 12 months by the start of an economic bust (the unravelling of the monetary-inflation-fuelled boom), followed within 12 months by an official recession.<blockquote>下图显示了G2真实货币供应量（TMS）的同比增长率，水平红线表示上述6%的增长水平，垂直红线表示美国经济衰退的正式开始时间。在典型的顺序中，G2货币通胀率降至6%以下，随后在12个月内开始经济萧条（货币通胀推动的繁荣瓦解），随后在12个月内正式衰退。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84339b0a0a084a7ee75e0ed326ddf3a2\" tg-width=\"521\" tg-height=\"282\"><blockquote></blockquote> The time from a decline in the G2 monetary inflation rate to below 6% to the start of a recession can be two years or even longer, but the broad stock market tends to struggle from the time that the boom begins to unravel. This typically occurs within 12 months of the monetary inflation rate dropping below 6%, regardless of what’s happening with interest rates.<blockquote>从G2货币通胀率下降到6%以下到衰退开始的时间可能需要两年甚至更长，但从繁荣开始瓦解的那一刻起，广泛的股市往往会举步维艰。这通常发生在货币通胀率降至6%以下的12个月内，无论利率如何变化。</blockquote> Now, it’s likely that the unravelling of the current boom will begin with the monetary inflation rate at a higher level than in the past. However, with the G2 TMS growth rate well into all-time high territory and still trending upward it is too soon (to put it mildly) to start preparing for an equity bear market.<blockquote>现在，当前繁荣的瓦解很可能会从货币通胀率高于过去开始。然而，随着G2 TMS增长率进入历史高位并且仍呈上升趋势，现在开始为股市熊市做准备还为时过早（委婉地说）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://tsi-blog.com/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link\">TSI commentary</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://tsi-blog.com/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146494330","content_text":"The title of this discussion is a trick question. The reason is that while rising interest rates put downward pressure on some stock market sectors during some periods, it is not clear that rising interest rates bring about major, broad-based stock market declines. After all, the secular equity bull market that began in the early-to-mid 1940s and ended in the mid-to-late 1960s unfolded in parallel with a rising interest-rate trend.\nThe conventional wisdom that rising interest rates eventually become a major problem for the stock market exists for two inter-related reasons. First, there is a strong tendency for major equity market declines to be preceded by a sustained and substantial tightening of monetary conditions. Second, it is common for a substantial tightening of monetary conditions to be accompanied by rising interest rates.\nHowever, a sustained and substantial tightening of monetary conditions would bring about major weakness in the stock market even if interest rates were low or falling. This, in essence, is what happened during 2007-2008. The corollary is that a rising interest-rate trend would never become a major problem for the overall stock market as long as monetary conditions remained sufficiently accommodative.\nThe point is that when assessing the prospects of the stock market we should be more concerned about monetary conditions than interest rates, because it isn’t a given that rising interest rates indicate tightening monetary conditions or that falling interest rates indicate loosening monetary conditions. How, then, do we know the extent to which monetary conditions are tight or loose?\nOne of the most important indicators, albeit not the only useful indicator, is the growth rate of the money supply itself.\nGood economic theory informs us that rapidly inflating the money supply leads to a period of unsustainable economic vigour called a boom, and that the boom begins to unravel after the monetary inflation rate slows. Over the past 25 years, booms have begun to unravel within 12 months of the year-over-year growth rate of G2 (US plus eurozone) money supply dropping below 6%.\nThe following chart shows the year-over-year growth rate of G2 True Money Supply (TMS), with a horizontal red line drawn to mark the 6% growth level mentioned above and vertical red lines drawn to mark the official starting times of US recessions. In the typical sequence, there is a decline in the G2 monetary inflation rate below 6%, followed within 12 months by the start of an economic bust (the unravelling of the monetary-inflation-fuelled boom), followed within 12 months by an official recession.\n\nThe time from a decline in the G2 monetary inflation rate to below 6% to the start of a recession can be two years or even longer, but the broad stock market tends to struggle from the time that the boom begins to unravel. This typically occurs within 12 months of the monetary inflation rate dropping below 6%, regardless of what’s happening with interest rates.\nNow, it’s likely that the unravelling of the current boom will begin with the monetary inflation rate at a higher level than in the past. However, with the G2 TMS growth rate well into all-time high territory and still trending upward it is too soon (to put it mildly) to start preparing for an equity bear market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/359251984"}