GaryGui
2021-02-22
Wga
Inflation is rising and so are investors’ fears about stocks<blockquote>通胀正在上升，投资者对股市的担忧也在上升</blockquote>
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That’s because inflation expectations have spiked dramatically in recent weeks. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate — what the bond market currently is betting inflation will average over the next decade — is now higher than it’s been in five years.</p><p><blockquote>如果通货膨胀对股市构成威胁，我们应该感到害怕。这是因为最近几周通胀预期急剧飙升。10年期盈亏平衡通胀率（债券市场目前押注未来十年通胀的平均水平）现在高于五年来的水平。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see from the accompanying chart, expected 10-year inflation stood at just 0.50% last March; this past week it got as high as 2.24%.</p><p><blockquote>从附图中可以看出，去年3月10年期预期通胀率仅为0.50%；过去一周，这一比例高达2.24%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ad5e1de79b1bbf7b685125aa01437e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In truth, inflation is not the threat to the stock market that most investors believe. If inflation continues to heat up in coming months and investors react by dumping stocks, you might want to consider it as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，通货膨胀并不像大多数投资者认为的那样对股市构成威胁。如果未来几个月通胀继续升温，投资者的反应是抛售股票，您可能需要将其视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> These are the conclusions I reached after interviewing Richard Warr, a finance professor at North Carolina State University. Warr co-authored a seminal 2002 study in the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis which found that equities actually are a good long-term hedge against inflation. His co-author was University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter.</p><p><blockquote>这些是我在采访了北卡罗来纳州立大学金融学教授理查德·沃尔后得出的结论。Warr于2002年在《金融与定量分析杂志》上与人合著了一项开创性的研究，该研究发现股票实际上是抵御通胀的良好长期对冲工具。他的合著者是佛罗里达大学金融学教授杰伊·里特。</blockquote></p><p> Warr explained that stocks are a hedge because inflation impacts equity valuations in two ways which largely offset each other:</p><p><blockquote>瓦尔解释说，股票是一种对冲工具，因为通货膨胀以两种方式影响股票估值，这两种方式在很大程度上相互抵消：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Higher inflation means that future nominal earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value.</li> <li>Corporations are able to charge more when inflation is higher. Because of this greater pricing power, their nominal earnings in future years will be higher than they would have been otherwise.</li> </ol> Notice the small net effect of these two factors: Nominal earnings will be higher but must be more heavily discounted. This isn’t just theory, by the way: Over the last 150 years, real (inflation-adjusted) growth rates for the S&P 500’sSPX,-0.19%earnings per share have remained relatively stable in the wake of changes in the inflation rate, while nominal EPS growth rates have tended to rise and fall in line with those changes.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>更高的通货膨胀意味着未来的名义收益在计算现值时必须以更高的利率贴现。</li><li>当通货膨胀率较高时，企业可以收取更多费用。由于这种更大的定价权，他们未来几年的名义收入将高于其他情况下的收入。</li></ol>请注意这两个因素的净效应很小：名义收益会更高，但必须更大幅度地贴现。顺便说一句，这不仅仅是理论：在过去的150年里，随着通货膨胀率的变化，标普500 SPX的实际（通胀调整后）增长率-0.19%每股收益保持相对稳定，而名义每股收益增长率往往会随着这些变化而上升和下降。</blockquote></p><p> Investors typically focus on just the first of these two consequences of inflation, Warr said. That is, they (at least implicitly) realize that inflation reduces the value of future nominal earnings, but overlook that those nominal earnings will themselves be higher. This lopsided view is due to a trait that economists call “inflation illusion.”</p><p><blockquote>沃尔表示，投资者通常只关注通胀这两种后果中的第一种。也就是说，他们（至少含蓄地）意识到通货膨胀降低了未来名义收益的价值，但忽视了这些名义收益本身会更高。这种不平衡的观点是由于经济学家看涨期权的一个特征“通货膨胀幻觉”。</blockquote></p><p> This illusion works to be the benefit of stocks when inflation is declining. When that is the case, investors extrapolate into the future the artificially high nominal earnings growth of earlier higher-inflation periods. The result is unreasonably high valuations.</p><p><blockquote>当通胀下降时，这种错觉对股市有利。在这种情况下，投资者会将早期高通胀时期人为的高名义盈利增长推断到未来。结果就是估值过高。</blockquote></p><p> When inflation begins to rise, in contrast, investors make just the opposite mistake: They extrapolate into the future the lower earnings growth firms produced during the previously low-inflation period. This leads them to conclude that equity valuations must come down as inflation heats up.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，当通胀开始上升时，投资者会犯相反的错误：他们将公司在之前的低通胀时期产生的较低盈利增长推断到未来。这让他们得出结论，随着通胀升温，股票估值必须下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rational versus behavioral models of investor behavior</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者行为的理性模型与行为模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Notice that two distinct models of investor behavior are needed to explain the market’s reaction to higher inflation. The rational model shows that inflation should have little net impact on equity valuations, while the behavioral model predicts that investors will nevertheless behave irrationally.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，需要两种不同的投资者行为模型来解释市场对通胀上升的反应。理性模型表明，通货膨胀对股票估值的净影响应该很小，而行为模型预测投资者仍将表现非理性。</blockquote></p><p> Might investors have learned from their past irrationality, and therefore not dump stocks if inflation heats up even more in coming months? Warr said that, while anything is possible, he wouldn’t bet on it. “Most current investors have lived most of their lives in a low-inflation environment, so they have had no opportunity to learn the lessons that history teaches us about inflation and the stock market.”</p><p><blockquote>如果未来几个月通胀进一步升温，投资者是否已经从过去的非理性中吸取了教训，因此不会抛售股票？瓦尔说，虽然一切皆有可能，但他不会打赌。“目前的大多数投资者大半辈子都生活在低通胀环境中，因此他们没有机会吸取历史教给我们的有关通胀和股市的教训。”</blockquote></p><p> If Warr is right, then rational investors in coming months will have an opportunity to pick up stocks at lower valuations.</p><p><blockquote>如果沃尔是对的，那么未来几个月理性投资者将有机会以较低的估值买入股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation is rising and so are investors’ fears about stocks<blockquote>通胀正在上升，投资者对股市的担忧也在上升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation is rising and so are investors’ fears about stocks<blockquote>通胀正在上升，投资者对股市的担忧也在上升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-22 11:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks actually are an inflation hedge but the market doesn’t see it that way</p><p><blockquote>股票实际上是通胀对冲工具，但市场并不这么看</blockquote></p><p> If inflation is a threat to the stock market, we should be running scared. That’s because inflation expectations have spiked dramatically in recent weeks. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate — what the bond market currently is betting inflation will average over the next decade — is now higher than it’s been in five years.</p><p><blockquote>如果通货膨胀对股市构成威胁，我们应该感到害怕。这是因为最近几周通胀预期急剧飙升。10年期盈亏平衡通胀率（债券市场目前押注未来十年通胀的平均水平）现在高于五年来的水平。</blockquote></p><p> As you can see from the accompanying chart, expected 10-year inflation stood at just 0.50% last March; this past week it got as high as 2.24%.</p><p><blockquote>从附图中可以看出，去年3月10年期预期通胀率仅为0.50%；过去一周，这一比例高达2.24%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ad5e1de79b1bbf7b685125aa01437e\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In truth, inflation is not the threat to the stock market that most investors believe. If inflation continues to heat up in coming months and investors react by dumping stocks, you might want to consider it as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，通货膨胀并不像大多数投资者认为的那样对股市构成威胁。如果未来几个月通胀继续升温，投资者的反应是抛售股票，您可能需要将其视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> These are the conclusions I reached after interviewing Richard Warr, a finance professor at North Carolina State University. Warr co-authored a seminal 2002 study in the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis which found that equities actually are a good long-term hedge against inflation. His co-author was University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter.</p><p><blockquote>这些是我在采访了北卡罗来纳州立大学金融学教授理查德·沃尔后得出的结论。Warr于2002年在《金融与定量分析杂志》上与人合著了一项开创性的研究，该研究发现股票实际上是抵御通胀的良好长期对冲工具。他的合著者是佛罗里达大学金融学教授杰伊·里特。</blockquote></p><p> Warr explained that stocks are a hedge because inflation impacts equity valuations in two ways which largely offset each other:</p><p><blockquote>瓦尔解释说，股票是一种对冲工具，因为通货膨胀以两种方式影响股票估值，这两种方式在很大程度上相互抵消：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Higher inflation means that future nominal earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value.</li> <li>Corporations are able to charge more when inflation is higher. Because of this greater pricing power, their nominal earnings in future years will be higher than they would have been otherwise.</li> </ol> Notice the small net effect of these two factors: Nominal earnings will be higher but must be more heavily discounted. This isn’t just theory, by the way: Over the last 150 years, real (inflation-adjusted) growth rates for the S&P 500’sSPX,-0.19%earnings per share have remained relatively stable in the wake of changes in the inflation rate, while nominal EPS growth rates have tended to rise and fall in line with those changes.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>更高的通货膨胀意味着未来的名义收益在计算现值时必须以更高的利率贴现。</li><li>当通货膨胀率较高时，企业可以收取更多费用。由于这种更大的定价权，他们未来几年的名义收入将高于其他情况下的收入。</li></ol>请注意这两个因素的净效应很小：名义收益会更高，但必须更大幅度地贴现。顺便说一句，这不仅仅是理论：在过去的150年里，随着通货膨胀率的变化，标普500 SPX的实际（通胀调整后）增长率-0.19%每股收益保持相对稳定，而名义每股收益增长率往往会随着这些变化而上升和下降。</blockquote></p><p> Investors typically focus on just the first of these two consequences of inflation, Warr said. That is, they (at least implicitly) realize that inflation reduces the value of future nominal earnings, but overlook that those nominal earnings will themselves be higher. This lopsided view is due to a trait that economists call “inflation illusion.”</p><p><blockquote>沃尔表示，投资者通常只关注通胀这两种后果中的第一种。也就是说，他们（至少含蓄地）意识到通货膨胀降低了未来名义收益的价值，但忽视了这些名义收益本身会更高。这种不平衡的观点是由于经济学家看涨期权的一个特征“通货膨胀幻觉”。</blockquote></p><p> This illusion works to be the benefit of stocks when inflation is declining. When that is the case, investors extrapolate into the future the artificially high nominal earnings growth of earlier higher-inflation periods. The result is unreasonably high valuations.</p><p><blockquote>当通胀下降时，这种错觉对股市有利。在这种情况下，投资者会将早期高通胀时期人为的高名义盈利增长推断到未来。结果就是估值过高。</blockquote></p><p> When inflation begins to rise, in contrast, investors make just the opposite mistake: They extrapolate into the future the lower earnings growth firms produced during the previously low-inflation period. This leads them to conclude that equity valuations must come down as inflation heats up.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，当通胀开始上升时，投资者会犯相反的错误：他们将公司在之前的低通胀时期产生的较低盈利增长推断到未来。这让他们得出结论，随着通胀升温，股票估值必须下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rational versus behavioral models of investor behavior</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者行为的理性模型与行为模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Notice that two distinct models of investor behavior are needed to explain the market’s reaction to higher inflation. The rational model shows that inflation should have little net impact on equity valuations, while the behavioral model predicts that investors will nevertheless behave irrationally.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，需要两种不同的投资者行为模型来解释市场对通胀上升的反应。理性模型表明，通货膨胀对股票估值的净影响应该很小，而行为模型预测投资者仍将表现非理性。</blockquote></p><p> Might investors have learned from their past irrationality, and therefore not dump stocks if inflation heats up even more in coming months? Warr said that, while anything is possible, he wouldn’t bet on it. “Most current investors have lived most of their lives in a low-inflation environment, so they have had no opportunity to learn the lessons that history teaches us about inflation and the stock market.”</p><p><blockquote>如果未来几个月通胀进一步升温，投资者是否已经从过去的非理性中吸取了教训，因此不会抛售股票？瓦尔说，虽然一切皆有可能，但他不会打赌。“目前的大多数投资者大半辈子都生活在低通胀环境中，因此他们没有机会吸取历史教给我们的有关通胀和股市的教训。”</blockquote></p><p> If Warr is right, then rational investors in coming months will have an opportunity to pick up stocks at lower valuations.</p><p><blockquote>如果沃尔是对的，那么未来几个月理性投资者将有机会以较低的估值买入股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-is-rising-and-so-are-investors-fears-about-stocks-11613703814?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-is-rising-and-so-are-investors-fears-about-stocks-11613703814?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1116222553","content_text":"Stocks actually are an inflation hedge but the market doesn’t see it that way\nIf inflation is a threat to the stock market, we should be running scared. That’s because inflation expectations have spiked dramatically in recent weeks. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate — what the bond market currently is betting inflation will average over the next decade — is now higher than it’s been in five years.\nAs you can see from the accompanying chart, expected 10-year inflation stood at just 0.50% last March; this past week it got as high as 2.24%.\n\nIn truth, inflation is not the threat to the stock market that most investors believe. If inflation continues to heat up in coming months and investors react by dumping stocks, you might want to consider it as a buying opportunity.\nThese are the conclusions I reached after interviewing Richard Warr, a finance professor at North Carolina State University. Warr co-authored a seminal 2002 study in the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis which found that equities actually are a good long-term hedge against inflation. His co-author was University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter.\nWarr explained that stocks are a hedge because inflation impacts equity valuations in two ways which largely offset each other:\n\nHigher inflation means that future nominal earnings must be discounted at a higher rate when calculating their present value.\nCorporations are able to charge more when inflation is higher. Because of this greater pricing power, their nominal earnings in future years will be higher than they would have been otherwise.\n\nNotice the small net effect of these two factors: Nominal earnings will be higher but must be more heavily discounted. This isn’t just theory, by the way: Over the last 150 years, real (inflation-adjusted) growth rates for the S&P 500’sSPX,-0.19%earnings per share have remained relatively stable in the wake of changes in the inflation rate, while nominal EPS growth rates have tended to rise and fall in line with those changes.\nInvestors typically focus on just the first of these two consequences of inflation, Warr said. That is, they (at least implicitly) realize that inflation reduces the value of future nominal earnings, but overlook that those nominal earnings will themselves be higher. This lopsided view is due to a trait that economists call “inflation illusion.”\nThis illusion works to be the benefit of stocks when inflation is declining. When that is the case, investors extrapolate into the future the artificially high nominal earnings growth of earlier higher-inflation periods. The result is unreasonably high valuations.\nWhen inflation begins to rise, in contrast, investors make just the opposite mistake: They extrapolate into the future the lower earnings growth firms produced during the previously low-inflation period. This leads them to conclude that equity valuations must come down as inflation heats up.\nRational versus behavioral models of investor behavior\nNotice that two distinct models of investor behavior are needed to explain the market’s reaction to higher inflation. The rational model shows that inflation should have little net impact on equity valuations, while the behavioral model predicts that investors will nevertheless behave irrationally.\nMight investors have learned from their past irrationality, and therefore not dump stocks if inflation heats up even more in coming months? Warr said that, while anything is possible, he wouldn’t bet on it. “Most current investors have lived most of their lives in a low-inflation environment, so they have had no opportunity to learn the lessons that history teaches us about inflation and the stock market.”\nIf Warr is right, then rational investors in coming months will have an opportunity to pick up stocks at lower valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1527,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/360485606"}
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