Bullish_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-02-24

Bullish

The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子已经结束了</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":361024352,"tweetId":"361024352","gmtCreate":1614180438576,"gmtModify":1631891936783,"author":{"id":3574772553430673,"idStr":"3574772553430673","authorId":3574772553430673,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Bullish</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Bullish</body></html>","text":"Bullish","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361024352","repostId":1197533827,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197533827","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614160523,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1197533827?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 17:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子已经结束了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197533827","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-199","content":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.<blockquote>准备好恢复正常。Lucid 的 SPAC 和 ARK Invest 的 ETF 都带有 20 世纪 90 年代末科技泡沫的味道。</blockquote> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.<blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”<blockquote>丘吉尔资本公司 (Churchill Capital Corp.) 是一家特殊目的收购公司 (SPAC)，曾传言将与特斯拉的崇拜者 Lucid Motors 合并，该公司终于在周一晚上宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在 “买入谣言 ”很久之后 “卖出了新闻”。</blockquote> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.<blockquote>CCIV 自作为空白支票公司上市以来上涨了 500%，如今股市已经抹去了周一中午市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾对这只股票发出警告，认为它是众多应该避免的 “随机数生成器”（RNG）之一。几周来一直以每股 40 美元、50 美元、60 美元甚至 70 美元的价格购买 CCIV 的个人和机构突然看到了价值的巨大缩水。</blockquote> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.<blockquote>也许他们现在正在环顾四周，看看他们的其他 RNG SPAC，想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc.&nbsp;at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.<blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，你可能会注意到，特斯拉公司（Microsoft Inc.</blockquote> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.<blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非 TSLA 电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数人的走势会比今天的报价低得多，而今天的报价也比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote> Piling into ARK<blockquote>打桩成方舟</blockquote> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.<blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她很早就看好特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD，6.03%，以及我和我的长期追随者比她更早进入的其他一些主题。她积极管理的ETF，方舟创新ETF是最著名的，表现非常好，她的评论已经准确了几年。</blockquote> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since&nbsp;I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com.&nbsp;(I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):<blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是凯西的粉丝，并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治-吉尔德（George Gilder）的故事，自从我于 2001 年为 TheStreet.com 撰写这篇文章以来，几十年来我一直与他成为朋友。(我刚意识到这篇文章是在 9/11 事件发生后两周才发表的）：</blockquote> “Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.<blockquote>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意几条规则： 现金为王，因为现金流越来越难以持续判断。因此，只需看一眼一家公司的资产负债表，就能告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资的信息。现在，电信股每天的大幅上涨已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力存疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本的风险。在账面上寻找实际收入。正如科技大师乔治-吉尔德（George Gilder）和他的追随者们所了解到的那样（至少，我希望他们现在已经了解到了），伟大的技术不会转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有即时用途的产品。你可能会惊讶于我在清单中没有提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司，本季度甚至可能还要几个季度才能盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</blockquote> Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”<blockquote>让我在这里重复一遍： 你永远不会看到我们在 20 世纪 90 年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股中是这样。这也是为什么这些不断鼓吹坚持到底的科技共同基金人士需要很长时间才能收支平衡的另一个原因。</blockquote> The hangover<blockquote>宿醉</blockquote> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.<blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有像 20 世纪 90 年代末那样获得回报。我认为电动汽车股票和凯西·伍德 (Cathie Wood) 和她的盲目追随者如今正在大力投资的许多其他最受欢迎的股票也是如此，因为他们无论估值如何都投入资金。</blockquote> Here’s what George had to say&nbsp;in 2002:<blockquote>以下是乔治在 2002 年所说的话：</blockquote> “In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.<blockquote>“现在回想起来，我显然应该委婉地说，'嘿，JDS Uniphase 的事情已经失控了，你为此付出的代价不值得'，”他说。每个月，他都会考虑向他的订户提供一个警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的 “吉尔德效应 ”：在他将该公司列入名单后，一只股票的大幅飙升。股票价格在通讯发布后一小时内飙升 50% 以上的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，'嘿，这是一件上衣，你们都应该卖掉'，那将是一场灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我的结论都是，我的订户会被激怒。我还想知道，如果我这样做了，我会引发什么后果”。在吉尔德现在评级的市场 “歇斯底里的高峰期 ”，他的读者中有整整 50% 的人订阅了这份报告。“他说：”我的一半用户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半用户--新用户--会因为他们刚刚进来而被激怒。“太可怕了。我真的不知道该怎么办。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一套全新的烦恼。“吉尔德说：”过去，我们的投资者会议在两周内就销售一空。“但在 2001 年，我们发出了同样的资料和同样的邀请，有五七个人报名参加了。”他失去了为聚会预订酒店房间的押金。时事通讯续订率直线下降。巨额税单到期了。到 2002 年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“他说：”前一刻你还非常富有，下一刻你就无法向合伙人支付最后一百万美元，突然之间你的房子就有了留置权。</blockquote> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.<blockquote>1999 年乔治榜单上的许多最佳股票最终下跌了 99% 或更多。许多人归零了，尽管他们的技术和想法延续并建立了我们现在每天使用的互联网。</blockquote> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.<blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV 可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子已经结束了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子已经结束了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-24 17:55\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nGet ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.<blockquote>准备好恢复正常。Lucid 的 SPAC 和 ARK Invest 的 ETF 都带有 20 世纪 90 年代末科技泡沫的味道。</blockquote> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.<blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”<blockquote>丘吉尔资本公司 (Churchill Capital Corp.) 是一家特殊目的收购公司 (SPAC)，曾传言将与特斯拉的崇拜者 Lucid Motors 合并，该公司终于在周一晚上宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在 “买入谣言 ”很久之后 “卖出了新闻”。</blockquote> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.<blockquote>CCIV 自作为空白支票公司上市以来上涨了 500%，如今股市已经抹去了周一中午市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾对这只股票发出警告，认为它是众多应该避免的 “随机数生成器”（RNG）之一。几周来一直以每股 40 美元、50 美元、60 美元甚至 70 美元的价格购买 CCIV 的个人和机构突然看到了价值的巨大缩水。</blockquote> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.<blockquote>也许他们现在正在环顾四周，看看他们的其他 RNG SPAC，想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc.&nbsp;at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.<blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，你可能会注意到，特斯拉公司（Microsoft Inc.</blockquote> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.<blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非 TSLA 电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数人的走势会比今天的报价低得多，而今天的报价也比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote> Piling into ARK<blockquote>打桩成方舟</blockquote> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.<blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她很早就看好特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD，6.03%，以及我和我的长期追随者比她更早进入的其他一些主题。她积极管理的ETF，方舟创新ETF是最著名的，表现非常好，她的评论已经准确了几年。</blockquote> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since&nbsp;I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com.&nbsp;(I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):<blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是凯西的粉丝，并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治-吉尔德（George Gilder）的故事，自从我于 2001 年为 TheStreet.com 撰写这篇文章以来，几十年来我一直与他成为朋友。(我刚意识到这篇文章是在 9/11 事件发生后两周才发表的）：</blockquote> “Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.<blockquote>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意几条规则： 现金为王，因为现金流越来越难以持续判断。因此，只需看一眼一家公司的资产负债表，就能告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资的信息。现在，电信股每天的大幅上涨已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力存疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本的风险。在账面上寻找实际收入。正如科技大师乔治-吉尔德（George Gilder）和他的追随者们所了解到的那样（至少，我希望他们现在已经了解到了），伟大的技术不会转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有即时用途的产品。你可能会惊讶于我在清单中没有提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司，本季度甚至可能还要几个季度才能盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</blockquote> Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”<blockquote>让我在这里重复一遍： 你永远不会看到我们在 20 世纪 90 年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股中是这样。这也是为什么这些不断鼓吹坚持到底的科技共同基金人士需要很长时间才能收支平衡的另一个原因。</blockquote> The hangover<blockquote>宿醉</blockquote> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.<blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有像 20 世纪 90 年代末那样获得回报。我认为电动汽车股票和凯西·伍德 (Cathie Wood) 和她的盲目追随者如今正在大力投资的许多其他最受欢迎的股票也是如此，因为他们无论估值如何都投入资金。</blockquote> Here’s what George had to say&nbsp;in 2002:<blockquote>以下是乔治在 2002 年所说的话：</blockquote> “In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.<blockquote>“现在回想起来，我显然应该委婉地说，'嘿，JDS Uniphase 的事情已经失控了，你为此付出的代价不值得'，”他说。每个月，他都会考虑向他的订户提供一个警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的 “吉尔德效应 ”：在他将该公司列入名单后，一只股票的大幅飙升。股票价格在通讯发布后一小时内飙升 50% 以上的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，'嘿，这是一件上衣，你们都应该卖掉'，那将是一场灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我的结论都是，我的订户会被激怒。我还想知道，如果我这样做了，我会引发什么后果”。在吉尔德现在评级的市场 “歇斯底里的高峰期 ”，他的读者中有整整 50% 的人订阅了这份报告。“他说：”我的一半用户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半用户--新用户--会因为他们刚刚进来而被激怒。“太可怕了。我真的不知道该怎么办。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一套全新的烦恼。“吉尔德说：”过去，我们的投资者会议在两周内就销售一空。“但在 2001 年，我们发出了同样的资料和同样的邀请，有五七个人报名参加了。”他失去了为聚会预订酒店房间的押金。时事通讯续订率直线下降。巨额税单到期了。到 2002 年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“他说：”前一刻你还非常富有，下一刻你就无法向合伙人支付最后一百万美元，突然之间你的房子就有了留置权。</blockquote> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.<blockquote>1999 年乔治榜单上的许多最佳股票最终下跌了 99% 或更多。许多人归零了，尽管他们的技术和想法延续并建立了我们现在每天使用的互联网。</blockquote> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.<blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV 可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1197533827","content_text":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.\nIgnore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.\nChurchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”\nCCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.\nThey’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.\nReviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc. at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.\nMany questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.\nPiling into ARK\nThese days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.\nBut I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com. (I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):\n“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.\nLet me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”\nThe hangover\nTelecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.\nHere’s what George had to say in 2002:\n“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.\nMany of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.\nCCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1075,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/361024352"}