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2021-02-24

Bullish

The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>

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Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-199","content":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.<blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.<blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”<blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并，周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.<blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%，今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.<blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC，并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc.&nbsp;at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.<blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，您可能会注意到，特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度，其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.<blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多，今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote> Piling into ARK<blockquote>堆积成方舟</blockquote> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.<blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF（最著名的ARK Innovation ETF）表现非常好，几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since&nbsp;I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com.&nbsp;(I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):<blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事，自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来，我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。（我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。）：</blockquote> “Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.<blockquote>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则：现金为王，因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此，简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的（至少，我希望他们现在已经认识到了），伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</blockquote> Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”<blockquote>让我在这里重复一遍警告：你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底，却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</blockquote> The hangover<blockquote>宿醉</blockquote> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.<blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此，因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote> Here’s what George had to say&nbsp;in 2002:<blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话：</blockquote> “In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.<blockquote>“回想起来，很明显我应该巧妙地说，‘嘿，JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了，不值得你为此付出代价，’”他说。每个月，他都考虑向他的订户提供警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”：在他将一家公司加入他的名单后，该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，‘嘿，这是一个顶部，你们都应该卖出’，这将是一个灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我都会得出结论，我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”，他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半——新订户——会被激怒，因为他们刚刚进来，”他说。“太可怕了，我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去，我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄，”吉尔德说。“但在2001年，我们发出同样的文献，同样的邀请函，就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有，下一刻，你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元，然后你的房子突然就被留置权了，”他说。</blockquote> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.<blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零，即使他们的技术和想法继续发展，并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.<blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-24 17:55\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nGet ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.<blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.<blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”<blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并，周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.<blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%，今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.<blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC，并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc.&nbsp;at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.<blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，您可能会注意到，特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度，其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.<blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多，今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote> Piling into ARK<blockquote>堆积成方舟</blockquote> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF&nbsp;being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.<blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF（最著名的ARK Innovation ETF）表现非常好，几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since&nbsp;I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com.&nbsp;(I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):<blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事，自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来，我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。（我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。）：</blockquote> “Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.<blockquote>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则：现金为王，因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此，简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的（至少，我希望他们现在已经认识到了），伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</blockquote> Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”<blockquote>让我在这里重复一遍警告：你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底，却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</blockquote> The hangover<blockquote>宿醉</blockquote> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.<blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此，因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote> Here’s what George had to say&nbsp;in 2002:<blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话：</blockquote> “In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.<blockquote>“回想起来，很明显我应该巧妙地说，‘嘿，JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了，不值得你为此付出代价，’”他说。每个月，他都考虑向他的订户提供警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”：在他将一家公司加入他的名单后，该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，‘嘿，这是一个顶部，你们都应该卖出’，这将是一个灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我都会得出结论，我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”，他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半——新订户——会被激怒，因为他们刚刚进来，”他说。“太可怕了，我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去，我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄，”吉尔德说。“但在2001年，我们发出同样的文献，同样的邀请函，就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有，下一刻，你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元，然后你的房子突然就被留置权了，”他说。</blockquote> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.<blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零，即使他们的技术和想法继续发展，并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.<blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1197533827","content_text":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.\nIgnore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.\nChurchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”\nCCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.\nThey’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.\nReviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc. at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.\nMany questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.\nPiling into ARK\nThese days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.\nBut I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com. (I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):\n“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.\nLet me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”\nThe hangover\nTelecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.\nHere’s what George had to say in 2002:\n“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.\nMany of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.\nCCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/361024352"}