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2021-02-25

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3 reasons the stock market might be able to survive rising bond yields in 2021<blockquote>股市或许能够在2021年债券收益率上升的情况下生存下来的3个原因</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":361110609,"tweetId":"361110609","gmtCreate":1614212731501,"gmtModify":1634550704905,"author":{"id":3564179469410587,"idStr":"3564179469410587","authorId":3564179469410587,"authorIdStr":"3564179469410587","name":"bryanchow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae4abe5b60baa669f3ee24364b93183","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Hope so</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hope so</body></html>","text":"Hope so","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361110609","repostId":1179628639,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179628639","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614148236,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179628639?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 14:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 reasons the stock market might be able to survive rising bond yields in 2021<blockquote>股市或许能够在2021年债券收益率上升的情况下生存下来的3个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179628639","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Near-term pullback possible, but that’s not a signal to rush for the exits, says RBC’s Calvasina\nRis","content":"Near-term pullback possible, but that’s not a signal to rush for the exits, says RBC’s Calvasina<blockquote>加拿大皇家银行的卡尔瓦西纳表示，近期可能会回调，但这并不是急于退出的信号</blockquote> Rising Treasury yields have contributed to a selloff by the stock market’s pandemic high-fliers, but probably won’t be enough to spoil the appeal of stocks over bonds in 2021, according to one analyst.<blockquote>一位分析师表示，美国国债收益率上升导致股市因疫情而雄心勃勃的投资者抛售，但可能不足以削弱2021年股票相对于债券的吸引力。</blockquote> U.S. equity investors “have become focused on the recent increase in 10-year Treasury yields over the past week, which are all the way back to mid-February 2020 levels,” wrote Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Tuesday note. Yields and bond prices have an inverse relationship.<blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)写道，美国股票投资者“开始关注过去一周10年期国债收益率的近期上涨，该收益率已回到2020年2月中旬的水平”，在周二的一份报告中。收益率和债券价格呈反比关系。</blockquote> The 10-year Treasury yieldTMUBMUSD10Y,1.332%is coming off its largest rise in six weeks, which has been blamed for sparking a pullback led by tech-oriented stocks that had benefited most from the stay-at-home dynamic created by the COVID-19 pandemic.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.332%正创下六周来的最大涨幅，这被指责引发了由科技型股票领跌的回调，这些股票从COVID-19造成的居家动态中受益最大。-19大流行。</blockquote> The relationship was on display in reverse Tuesday as therise in yields relentedfollowingtestimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, allowing major benchmarks to erase or trim significant losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite,which has led the way lower,trimmed a loss of nearly 4% to end down 0.5%&nbsp;as yields declined; the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;eked out a gain to snap a five-day losing streak, while the more cyclically oriented Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;erased a loss of more than 360 points to end slightly higher.<blockquote>周二，随着美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔作证后收益率上涨放缓，这种关系出现了逆转，使主要基准指数消除或削减了重大损失。随着收益率下降，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数跌幅收窄近4%，收盘下跌0.5%；标普500在snap连续五天下跌后勉强上涨，而更具周期性的道琼斯工业平均指数则抹去了360多点的跌幅，小幅收高。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Calvasina said a look at what stocks are offering in terms of dividend and earnings yield relative to bonds, as well as a reminder of what sort of bond moves have spelled trouble for equities, offers some reassurance that 2021 is unlikely to turn into a down year, she said.<blockquote>与此同时，卡尔瓦西纳表示，看看股票相对于债券的股息和收益率，以及提醒人们什么样的债券走势给股市带来了麻烦，可以让人放心，2021年不太可能变成这样。她说，这是一个低迷的一年。</blockquote> Dividend yield<blockquote>股息率</blockquote> When it comes to dividend yield, RBC measured the percentage of companies that continue to exceed the 10-year Treasury yield. While that has fallen to 51.5% from 64% at the beginning of the year, it’s still within a range typically followed by a 17% gain for the S&amp;P 500 over the following 12 months, she said.<blockquote>在股息收益率方面，加拿大皇家银行衡量了持续超过10年期国债收益率的公司百分比。她表示，虽然这一比例已从年初的64%降至51.5%，但仍处于标普500在接下来12个月内通常会上涨17%的范围内。</blockquote> Earnings yield<blockquote>收益率</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500’s earnings yield has also deteriorated, moving to the low end of the range in place since the end of the financial crisis. It now stands near the level seen in 2017-’18, but remains in a range that’s been followed by 9.3% average gains by the S&amp;P 500 over the next 12 months, Calvasina said.<blockquote>标普500的收益率也有所恶化，跌至金融危机结束以来区间的低端。Calvasina表示，目前该指数接近2017-18年的水平，但仍处于未来12个月标普500平均上涨9.3%的区间内。</blockquote> “In other words, this analysis is acknowledging the case for a short-term pullback in the S&amp;P 500, but isn’t necessarily signaling that longer-term investors should head for the exit,” she wrote.<blockquote>她写道：“换句话说，这一分析承认了标普500短期回调的理由，但并不一定表明长期投资者应该退出。”</blockquote> Calvasina also highlighted an “important difference” between 2018, when the trade war posed a threat to the U.S. and global economies, and now, when gross domestic product forecasts are rising rapidly.<blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳还强调了2018年和现在之间的“重要区别”，当时贸易战对美国和全球经济构成威胁，而现在国内生产总值预测迅速上升。</blockquote> Treasury yields and stocks<blockquote>国债收益率和股票</blockquote> Finally, what about the rise in Treasury yields itself? After all, many market watchers have argued that while yields remain low by historical standards, it’s the size of the rise that may be most concerning for equities. Calvasina broke down the relationship between yield moves and stock-market performance in the chart below:<blockquote>最后，国债收益率的上升本身呢？毕竟，许多市场观察人士认为，虽然按照历史标准来看收益率仍然较低，但股市最令人担忧的可能是上涨的规模。卡尔瓦西纳在下图中分析了收益率变动与股市表现之间的关系：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bb8f243548ebe4120c4314a557bdf28\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1132\">RBC CAPITAL MARKETS<blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场</blockquote> Calvasina said U.S. equities have tended to struggle when the 10-year yield rises more than 275 basis points, or 2.75 percentage points. Coming off its low of 0.51%, a 275-basis-point move would take the yield to around 3.26%. The 10-year ended Tuesday at 1.363%.<blockquote>Calvasina表示，当10年期国债收益率上涨超过275个基点，即2.75个百分点时，美国股市往往会陷入困境。收益率从0.51%的低点上涨275个基点，将升至3.26%左右。10年期国债周二收于1.363%。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 reasons the stock market might be able to survive rising bond yields in 2021<blockquote>股市或许能够在2021年债券收益率上升的情况下生存下来的3个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 reasons the stock market might be able to survive rising bond yields in 2021<blockquote>股市或许能够在2021年债券收益率上升的情况下生存下来的3个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-24 14:30\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNear-term pullback possible, but that’s not a signal to rush for the exits, says RBC’s Calvasina<blockquote>加拿大皇家银行的卡尔瓦西纳表示，近期可能会回调，但这并不是急于退出的信号</blockquote> Rising Treasury yields have contributed to a selloff by the stock market’s pandemic high-fliers, but probably won’t be enough to spoil the appeal of stocks over bonds in 2021, according to one analyst.<blockquote>一位分析师表示，美国国债收益率上升导致股市因疫情而雄心勃勃的投资者抛售，但可能不足以削弱2021年股票相对于债券的吸引力。</blockquote> U.S. equity investors “have become focused on the recent increase in 10-year Treasury yields over the past week, which are all the way back to mid-February 2020 levels,” wrote Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Tuesday note. Yields and bond prices have an inverse relationship.<blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)写道，美国股票投资者“开始关注过去一周10年期国债收益率的近期上涨，该收益率已回到2020年2月中旬的水平”，在周二的一份报告中。收益率和债券价格呈反比关系。</blockquote> The 10-year Treasury yieldTMUBMUSD10Y,1.332%is coming off its largest rise in six weeks, which has been blamed for sparking a pullback led by tech-oriented stocks that had benefited most from the stay-at-home dynamic created by the COVID-19 pandemic.<blockquote>10年期国债收益率TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.332%正创下六周来的最大涨幅，这被指责引发了由科技型股票领跌的回调，这些股票从COVID-19造成的居家动态中受益最大。-19大流行。</blockquote> The relationship was on display in reverse Tuesday as therise in yields relentedfollowingtestimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, allowing major benchmarks to erase or trim significant losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite,which has led the way lower,trimmed a loss of nearly 4% to end down 0.5%&nbsp;as yields declined; the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;eked out a gain to snap a five-day losing streak, while the more cyclically oriented Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;erased a loss of more than 360 points to end slightly higher.<blockquote>周二，随着美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔作证后收益率上涨放缓，这种关系出现了逆转，使主要基准指数消除或削减了重大损失。随着收益率下降，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数跌幅收窄近4%，收盘下跌0.5%；标普500在snap连续五天下跌后勉强上涨，而更具周期性的道琼斯工业平均指数则抹去了360多点的跌幅，小幅收高。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Calvasina said a look at what stocks are offering in terms of dividend and earnings yield relative to bonds, as well as a reminder of what sort of bond moves have spelled trouble for equities, offers some reassurance that 2021 is unlikely to turn into a down year, she said.<blockquote>与此同时，卡尔瓦西纳表示，看看股票相对于债券的股息和收益率，以及提醒人们什么样的债券走势给股市带来了麻烦，可以让人放心，2021年不太可能变成这样。她说，这是一个低迷的一年。</blockquote> Dividend yield<blockquote>股息率</blockquote> When it comes to dividend yield, RBC measured the percentage of companies that continue to exceed the 10-year Treasury yield. While that has fallen to 51.5% from 64% at the beginning of the year, it’s still within a range typically followed by a 17% gain for the S&amp;P 500 over the following 12 months, she said.<blockquote>在股息收益率方面，加拿大皇家银行衡量了持续超过10年期国债收益率的公司百分比。她表示，虽然这一比例已从年初的64%降至51.5%，但仍处于标普500在接下来12个月内通常会上涨17%的范围内。</blockquote> Earnings yield<blockquote>收益率</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500’s earnings yield has also deteriorated, moving to the low end of the range in place since the end of the financial crisis. It now stands near the level seen in 2017-’18, but remains in a range that’s been followed by 9.3% average gains by the S&amp;P 500 over the next 12 months, Calvasina said.<blockquote>标普500的收益率也有所恶化，跌至金融危机结束以来区间的低端。Calvasina表示，目前该指数接近2017-18年的水平，但仍处于未来12个月标普500平均上涨9.3%的区间内。</blockquote> “In other words, this analysis is acknowledging the case for a short-term pullback in the S&amp;P 500, but isn’t necessarily signaling that longer-term investors should head for the exit,” she wrote.<blockquote>她写道：“换句话说，这一分析承认了标普500短期回调的理由，但并不一定表明长期投资者应该退出。”</blockquote> Calvasina also highlighted an “important difference” between 2018, when the trade war posed a threat to the U.S. and global economies, and now, when gross domestic product forecasts are rising rapidly.<blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳还强调了2018年和现在之间的“重要区别”，当时贸易战对美国和全球经济构成威胁，而现在国内生产总值预测迅速上升。</blockquote> Treasury yields and stocks<blockquote>国债收益率和股票</blockquote> Finally, what about the rise in Treasury yields itself? After all, many market watchers have argued that while yields remain low by historical standards, it’s the size of the rise that may be most concerning for equities. Calvasina broke down the relationship between yield moves and stock-market performance in the chart below:<blockquote>最后，国债收益率的上升本身呢？毕竟，许多市场观察人士认为，虽然按照历史标准来看收益率仍然较低，但股市最令人担忧的可能是上涨的规模。卡尔瓦西纳在下图中分析了收益率变动与股市表现之间的关系：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bb8f243548ebe4120c4314a557bdf28\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"1132\">RBC CAPITAL MARKETS<blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场</blockquote> Calvasina said U.S. equities have tended to struggle when the 10-year yield rises more than 275 basis points, or 2.75 percentage points. Coming off its low of 0.51%, a 275-basis-point move would take the yield to around 3.26%. The 10-year ended Tuesday at 1.363%.<blockquote>Calvasina表示，当10年期国债收益率上涨超过275个基点，即2.75个百分点时，美国股市往往会陷入困境。收益率从0.51%的低点上涨275个基点，将升至3.26%左右。10年期国债周二收于1.363%。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-why-the-stock-market-might-be-able-to-survive-rising-bond-yields-in-2021-11614119111?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-why-the-stock-market-might-be-able-to-survive-rising-bond-yields-in-2021-11614119111?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1179628639","content_text":"Near-term pullback possible, but that’s not a signal to rush for the exits, says RBC’s Calvasina\nRising Treasury yields have contributed to a selloff by the stock market’s pandemic high-fliers, but probably won’t be enough to spoil the appeal of stocks over bonds in 2021, according to one analyst.\nU.S. equity investors “have become focused on the recent increase in 10-year Treasury yields over the past week, which are all the way back to mid-February 2020 levels,” wrote Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Tuesday note. Yields and bond prices have an inverse relationship.\nThe 10-year Treasury yieldTMUBMUSD10Y,1.332%is coming off its largest rise in six weeks, which has been blamed for sparking a pullback led by tech-oriented stocks that had benefited most from the stay-at-home dynamic created by the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe relationship was on display in reverse Tuesday as therise in yields relentedfollowingtestimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, allowing major benchmarks to erase or trim significant losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite,which has led the way lower,trimmed a loss of nearly 4% to end down 0.5% as yields declined; the S&P 500 eked out a gain to snap a five-day losing streak, while the more cyclically oriented Dow Jones Industrial Average erased a loss of more than 360 points to end slightly higher.\nMeanwhile, Calvasina said a look at what stocks are offering in terms of dividend and earnings yield relative to bonds, as well as a reminder of what sort of bond moves have spelled trouble for equities, offers some reassurance that 2021 is unlikely to turn into a down year, she said.\nDividend yield\nWhen it comes to dividend yield, RBC measured the percentage of companies that continue to exceed the 10-year Treasury yield. While that has fallen to 51.5% from 64% at the beginning of the year, it’s still within a range typically followed by a 17% gain for the S&P 500 over the following 12 months, she said.\nEarnings yield\nThe S&P 500’s earnings yield has also deteriorated, moving to the low end of the range in place since the end of the financial crisis. It now stands near the level seen in 2017-’18, but remains in a range that’s been followed by 9.3% average gains by the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, Calvasina said.\n“In other words, this analysis is acknowledging the case for a short-term pullback in the S&P 500, but isn’t necessarily signaling that longer-term investors should head for the exit,” she wrote.\nCalvasina also highlighted an “important difference” between 2018, when the trade war posed a threat to the U.S. and global economies, and now, when gross domestic product forecasts are rising rapidly.\nTreasury yields and stocks\nFinally, what about the rise in Treasury yields itself? After all, many market watchers have argued that while yields remain low by historical standards, it’s the size of the rise that may be most concerning for equities. Calvasina broke down the relationship between yield moves and stock-market performance in the chart below:\nRBC CAPITAL MARKETS\nCalvasina said U.S. equities have tended to struggle when the 10-year yield rises more than 275 basis points, or 2.75 percentage points. Coming off its low of 0.51%, a 275-basis-point move would take the yield to around 3.26%. The 10-year ended Tuesday at 1.363%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1057,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/361110609"}