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2021-02-24
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Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么更具投机性的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>
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But the sell","content":"<p>High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>高估值、保证金债务和方舟效应可能会给一些公司带来更多痛苦。但此次抛售也可能为其他科技公司创造买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> While many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain quite overvalued on the whole.</p><p><blockquote>虽然许多投机性的 Robinhood 最喜欢的股票在过去几周大幅下跌，但它们通常仍然远高于两三个月前的交易价格，而且总体上可以说仍然被高估了。</blockquote></p><p> For example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.</p><p><blockquote>例如，虽然 fuel cell plays 普拉格能源 (PLUG)、FuelCell Energy (FCEL) 和 Ballard Power (BLDP) 目前较最近创下的高点分别下跌了 40%、44% 和 32%，但仍较三个月前收盘价下跌 67%、92% 和 33%。它们的远期销售倍数仍然超过 40。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys (SSYS) and ExOne (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR) are up 150% and 123%, respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%, respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.</p><p><blockquote>同样，3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD)、Stratasys (SSYS) 和 ExOne (XONE) 在过去三个月中分别上涨了 357%、147% 和 215%。EV plays QuantumScape (QS) 和 Luminar Technologies (LAZR) 在过去三个月中分别上涨了 150% 和 123%，但估值仍然很高——QuantumScape 预计其固态电池要到 2024 年才能投入生产，仍价值 200 亿美元。即将合并的大麻公司 Tilray (TLRY) 和 Aphria (APHA) 的股价分别上涨了 252% 和 171%，并保持两位数的远期销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p> In a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，一些公司的估值仍然普遍过高，一些投资者仍然拥有大量的账面利润，如果当前的抛售让他们感到不安，他们可以将这些利润转化为实际利润。此外，从过去几个月保证金债务余额的激增来看，如果抛售继续下去，这些公司的许多新投资者可能会因保证金评级而被迫平仓。</blockquote></p><p> Also, asothers have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有人指出，方舟投资的交易活动可能会从各种高倍数科技股的顺风变成逆风。近几个月来，大量散户投资者涌入 ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) 和其他 ARK 基金，推动了 ARK 参与的各种清洁能源、3D 打印、软件/云和生物技术股票的大幅上涨。然而，相反，ARK 基金的大量资金流出可能会使此类股票在抛售期间的抛售压力比其他情况下更大。</blockquote></p><p> With all that said,I'm not sold at this point on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述， 鉴于当前的抛售是科技股整体熊市的开始， 我目前并不卖出。</blockquote></p><p> In spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管科技界的某些角落出现了投机狂热，但目前相当多的优质科技股仍然估值适中，或者只是有点贵。在疫苗推出、家庭储蓄水平提高以及 3 月份可能出台额外刺激措施之间，宏观背景看起来仍然有利，尽管未来几个月一些居家游戏的需求可能会有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Eventually</i>, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed remains as accommodative as ever.</p><p><blockquote><i>最终</i>通货膨胀、债券收益率上升和美联储紧缩政策可能会成为科技股普遍面临的问题。但我们似乎距离达到这一点还有一段距离，目前，美联储仍然一如既往地宽松。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the more reasonably-priced names.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果当前的技术溃败继续下去，并导致非常昂贵和不那么昂贵的公司看到更多的抛售压力，对于一些定价更合理的公司来说，风险/回报可能会开始看起来非常好。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么更具投机性的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么更具投机性的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 12:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>高估值、保证金债务和方舟效应可能会给一些公司带来更多痛苦。但此次抛售也可能为其他科技公司创造买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> While many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain quite overvalued on the whole.</p><p><blockquote>虽然许多投机性的 Robinhood 最喜欢的股票在过去几周大幅下跌，但它们通常仍然远高于两三个月前的交易价格，而且总体上可以说仍然被高估了。</blockquote></p><p> For example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.</p><p><blockquote>例如，虽然 fuel cell plays 普拉格能源 (PLUG)、FuelCell Energy (FCEL) 和 Ballard Power (BLDP) 目前较最近创下的高点分别下跌了 40%、44% 和 32%，但仍较三个月前收盘价下跌 67%、92% 和 33%。它们的远期销售倍数仍然超过 40。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys (SSYS) and ExOne (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR) are up 150% and 123%, respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%, respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.</p><p><blockquote>同样，3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD)、Stratasys (SSYS) 和 ExOne (XONE) 在过去三个月中分别上涨了 357%、147% 和 215%。EV plays QuantumScape (QS) 和 Luminar Technologies (LAZR) 在过去三个月中分别上涨了 150% 和 123%，但估值仍然很高——QuantumScape 预计其固态电池要到 2024 年才能投入生产，仍价值 200 亿美元。即将合并的大麻公司 Tilray (TLRY) 和 Aphria (APHA) 的股价分别上涨了 252% 和 171%，并保持两位数的远期销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p> In a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，一些公司的估值仍然普遍过高，一些投资者仍然拥有大量的账面利润，如果当前的抛售让他们感到不安，他们可以将这些利润转化为实际利润。此外，从过去几个月保证金债务余额的激增来看，如果抛售继续下去，这些公司的许多新投资者可能会因保证金评级而被迫平仓。</blockquote></p><p> Also, asothers have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有人指出，方舟投资的交易活动可能会从各种高倍数科技股的顺风变成逆风。近几个月来，大量散户投资者涌入 ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) 和其他 ARK 基金，推动了 ARK 参与的各种清洁能源、3D 打印、软件/云和生物技术股票的大幅上涨。然而，相反，ARK 基金的大量资金流出可能会使此类股票在抛售期间的抛售压力比其他情况下更大。</blockquote></p><p> With all that said,I'm not sold at this point on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述， 鉴于当前的抛售是科技股整体熊市的开始， 我目前并不卖出。</blockquote></p><p> In spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管科技界的某些角落出现了投机狂热，但目前相当多的优质科技股仍然估值适中，或者只是有点贵。在疫苗推出、家庭储蓄水平提高以及 3 月份可能出台额外刺激措施之间，宏观背景看起来仍然有利，尽管未来几个月一些居家游戏的需求可能会有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Eventually</i>, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed remains as accommodative as ever.</p><p><blockquote><i>最终</i>通货膨胀、债券收益率上升和美联储紧缩政策可能会成为科技股普遍面临的问题。但我们似乎距离达到这一点还有一段距离，目前，美联储仍然一如既往地宽松。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the more reasonably-priced names.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果当前的技术溃败继续下去，并导致非常昂贵和不那么昂贵的公司看到更多的抛售压力，对于一些定价更合理的公司来说，风险/回报可能会开始看起来非常好。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/technology/why-the-plunge-in-more-speculative-tech-stocks-might-not-be-over-yet-15575838\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DDD":"3D系统","XONE":"BondBloxx Bloomberg One Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF","PLUG":"普拉格能源","FCEL":"燃料电池能源","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","APHA":"Aphria Inc.","SSYS":"Stratasys","TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","BLDP":"巴拉德动力系统","LAZR":"Tema Photonics & Optical ETF","QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/technology/why-the-plunge-in-more-speculative-tech-stocks-might-not-be-over-yet-15575838","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185609211","content_text":"High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.\nWhile many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain quite overvalued on the whole.\nFor example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.\nLikewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys (SSYS) and ExOne (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR) are up 150% and 123%, respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%, respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.\nIn a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.\nAlso, asothers have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.\nWith all that said,I'm not sold at this point on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.\nIn spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.\nEventually, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed remains as accommodative as ever.\nAs a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the more reasonably-priced names.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDD":0.9,"FCEL":0.9,"QS":0.9,"TLRY":0.9,"SSYS":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"LAZR":0.9,"PLUG":0.9,"BLDP":0.9,"APHA":0.9,"XONE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":22,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/363214258"}
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