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2021-02-24
Bloodbath
The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500有更大上涨空间</blockquote>
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That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷周二将标普500指数2021年目标价从4,200美元上调至4,300美元。这意味着策略师预计该指数到今年年底将较当前水平上涨11%以上。相对于华尔街的普遍观点，这甚至不是一个激进的预测。FactSet追踪的公司的平均看涨期权预计将达到4,400美元。</blockquote></p><p> But the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.</p><p><blockquote>但看涨有真正的价值。瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师乔纳森·戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)写道：“随着经济重新开放、刺激措施充足以及美联储政策超级宽松，预计2021年GDP将比过去35年来的任何时候都更热也就不足为奇了。”，在笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> He argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，由于标普500公司第四季度每股收益总额超出分析师预期17%，而且绝大多数公司已经公布了业绩，因此盈利预期必须上调。</blockquote></p><p> Higher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>对盈利的较高预期通常会导致股票价格上涨。Golub将标普500每股收益的总体宏观预期从2021年的175美元上调至185美元，从2022年的200美元上调至210美元。</blockquote></p><p> At first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.</p><p><blockquote>起初，投资者似乎并不关心公司对第四季度盈利的预期相形见绌。理由是，结果并不重要，因为如果Covid-19疫苗不能如期推出或不能充分免疫新毒株，当地经济将无法重新开放，收入将崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> But now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day and trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，疫苗每天都有数百万只手臂，预计还会有数万亿美元的额外财政刺激来支持需求。就在几周前，本季度的盈利预期还低于第四季度的预期结果，因此随着与Covid-19相关的限制解除，华尔街上调盈利预期也就不足为奇了。策略师目前平均预计标普500 2022年每股收益为198美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是标普500上平均股票的每股收益可能是多少倍。Golub预计，到今年年底，该指数的市盈率将略高于2022年总市盈率的20倍。这低于目前未来12个月盈利预期的约22倍。</blockquote></p><p> Lower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍预计估值会下降，因为安全的美国国债收益率正在上升。较高的收益率使得持有股票的风险逐渐变得不那么有吸引力，从而减少了投资者愿意为未来每美元收益支付的金额。</blockquote></p><p> But the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.</p><p><blockquote>但利率上升也反映了对经济和通胀预期的改善，这与可能推高股价的盈利改善是一致的。</blockquote></p><p> None of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不意味着没有风险。疫苗接种的任何重大挫折都将不利于盈利，美联储加息过高、过快的决定将给经济和股票估值带来风险。</blockquote></p><p> Still, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，风险正在消退。由于股市在当前的抛售中面临压力，上涨的潜力可能会增加。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500有更大上涨空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500有更大上涨空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 13:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近的盈利太好了，不容忽视，如果经济出现正确的发展，它们可能会比目前的水平大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the S&P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷周二将标普500指数2021年目标价从4,200美元上调至4,300美元。这意味着策略师预计该指数到今年年底将较当前水平上涨11%以上。相对于华尔街的普遍观点，这甚至不是一个激进的预测。FactSet追踪的公司的平均看涨期权预计将达到4,400美元。</blockquote></p><p> But the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.</p><p><blockquote>但看涨有真正的价值。瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师乔纳森·戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)写道：“随着经济重新开放、刺激措施充足以及美联储政策超级宽松，预计2021年GDP将比过去35年来的任何时候都更热也就不足为奇了。”，在笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> He argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，由于标普500公司第四季度每股收益总额超出分析师预期17%，而且绝大多数公司已经公布了业绩，因此盈利预期必须上调。</blockquote></p><p> Higher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>对盈利的较高预期通常会导致股票价格上涨。Golub将标普500每股收益的总体宏观预期从2021年的175美元上调至185美元，从2022年的200美元上调至210美元。</blockquote></p><p> At first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.</p><p><blockquote>起初，投资者似乎并不关心公司对第四季度盈利的预期相形见绌。理由是，结果并不重要，因为如果Covid-19疫苗不能如期推出或不能充分免疫新毒株，当地经济将无法重新开放，收入将崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> But now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day and trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，疫苗每天都有数百万只手臂，预计还会有数万亿美元的额外财政刺激来支持需求。就在几周前，本季度的盈利预期还低于第四季度的预期结果，因此随着与Covid-19相关的限制解除，华尔街上调盈利预期也就不足为奇了。策略师目前平均预计标普500 2022年每股收益为198美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是标普500上平均股票的每股收益可能是多少倍。Golub预计，到今年年底，该指数的市盈率将略高于2022年总市盈率的20倍。这低于目前未来12个月盈利预期的约22倍。</blockquote></p><p> Lower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍预计估值会下降，因为安全的美国国债收益率正在上升。较高的收益率使得持有股票的风险逐渐变得不那么有吸引力，从而减少了投资者愿意为未来每美元收益支付的金额。</blockquote></p><p> But the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.</p><p><blockquote>但利率上升也反映了对经济和通胀预期的改善，这与可能推高股价的盈利改善是一致的。</blockquote></p><p> None of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不意味着没有风险。疫苗接种的任何重大挫折都将不利于盈利，美联储加息过高、过快的决定将给经济和股票估值带来风险。</blockquote></p><p> Still, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，风险正在消退。由于股市在当前的抛售中面临压力，上涨的潜力可能会增加。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-can-keep-rising-credit-suisse-says-thank-earnings-51614109642?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-can-keep-rising-credit-suisse-says-thank-earnings-51614109642?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111682954","content_text":"Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.\nCredit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the S&P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.\nBut the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.\nHe argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.\nHigher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.\nAt first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.\nBut now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day and trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.\nThe next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.\nLower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.\nBut the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.\nNone of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.\nStill, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/363259850"}
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