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Can the bull market in stocks survive rising inflation, bond yields? Here’s what history says<blockquote>股市牛市能否在通胀和债券收益率上升的情况下幸存下来？历史是这样说的</blockquote>
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Here’s what history says<blockquote>股市牛市能否在通胀和债券收益率上升的情况下幸存下来？历史是这样说的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107213324","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond JamesRising Treas","content":"<p>Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond James</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯：科技、非必需消费品和周期性行业历来表现优于大盘</blockquote></p><p>Rising Treasury yields are sending shivers through the stock market, particularly for highflying tech-related stocks. But history shows that when yields are rising “for the right reasons,” tech shares and cyclically sensitive stocks tend to thrive, according to Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>美国国债收益率上升令股市不寒而栗，尤其是对于高涨的科技相关股票而言。但雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）认为，历史表明，当收益率 “出于正确的原因 ”上升时，科技股和对周期性敏感的股票往往会蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p>The right reasons are “improving economic growth and a ‘healthy’ rise in inflation,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer for the private client group at Raymond James, in a weekend note. And those reasons have driven the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to just shy of 1.4%, or about their highest in a year. Yields also are coming off their largest weekly rise in six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）私人客户集团首席投资官拉里-亚当（Larry Adam）在周末的一份报告中说，正确的原因是 “经济增长的改善和通胀的'健康'上升”。这些原因导致 10 年期国债收益率略低于 1.4%，约为一年来的最高水平。收益率也出现了六周来的最大单周涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>Adam highlighted the chart below, which breaks down the average annualized performance of each of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors and the percentage of time each sector outperforms the S&P 500 in a rising rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>Adam 重点介绍了下图，该图表细分了标普500 11 个行业的平均年化表现，以及在利率上升的环境下每个行业跑赢标普500的时间百分比。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c934a97bed5bf56c97af1767cd874e\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RAYMOND JAMES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>雷蒙德·詹姆斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p>“Since 1990, during rising rate environments, the more cyclical sectors have outperformed,” Adam noted. “The average annualized outperformance relative to the S&P 500 and the percentage of time it outperforms the S&P 500 is largest for the tech, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors — three of our preferred sectors,” while higher dividend-yielding sectors like utilities, real estate and consumer staples tend to underperform.</p><p><blockquote>“亚当指出：”自 1990 年以来，在利率上升的环境下，周期性较强的行业表现优异。“科技、非必需消费品和工业部门--我们的三个首选行业--的平均年化跑赢标普500和跑赢标普500的时间百分比最大”，而公用事业、房地产和必需消费品等股息收益率较高的行业往往表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks wereputting in a mixed performanceon Monday, with the Nasdaq-100,down 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite,down 2.5%, suffering the steepest declines. Both are tilted toward large-cap, tech-oriented stocks.</p><p><blockquote>周一股市表现好坏参半，纳斯达克 100 指数下跌 2.6%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.5%，跌幅最大。两者都倾向于大盘、科技型股票。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average was positive, while the S&P 500 was off 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨，而标普500指数下跌0.8%。</blockquote></p><p>The rise in yields is being blamed in large part on expectations for a potential surge in inflation thanks to ramped up government spending and ultraloose monetary policy. Fears that the Federal Reserve could move to begin withdrawing some liquidity sooner than anticipated is seen helping to unsettle stocks, analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升在很大程度上归咎于人们对政府支出增加和超宽松货币政策可能导致通胀飙升的预期。分析师表示，对美联储可能比预期更早开始撤回部分流动性的担忧被认为有助于扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p>But Adam argued that inflation not only is unlikely to “short circuit” the rally, it may be a welcome development for stock-market bulls.</p><p><blockquote>但亚当认为，通货膨胀不仅不太可能 “短路 ”反弹，而且对股市多头来说可能是一个受欢迎的发展。</blockquote></p><p>“When analyzing how the S&P 500 performed under varying levels of core inflation, equities performed above-average in an environment where core inflation was between 1-4%,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“他写道：”在分析标普500在不同核心通胀水平下的表现时，在核心通胀率在 1-4% 之间的环境下，股市的表现高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation at those levels is generally considered healthy when it coincides with improving economic activity, Adam said. The reason is because companies have pricing power, allowing them to lift prices, while also reaping the benefits from productivity gains, which helps to boost earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚当说，当通胀水平与经济活动改善同时出现时，通常被认为是健康的。原因是公司拥有定价权，使他们能够提高价格，同时还能从生产率提高中获益，这有助于促进盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p>Raymond James expects core inflation to be around 2%. Adam said that when core inflation runs between 1% and 3%, the average performance relative to the S&P 500 on a year-over-year basis has been strongest for the technology (+6.8%), healthcare (+2.3%) and consumer discretionary sectors (+2%).</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯预计核心通胀率将在 2% 左右。Adam表示，当核心通胀率在1%至3%之间时，科技（+6.8%）、医疗保健（+2.3%）和非必需消费品行业（+2%）相对于标普500的平均同比表现最为强劲。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the bull market in stocks survive rising inflation, bond yields? Here’s what history says<blockquote>股市牛市能否在通胀和债券收益率上升的情况下幸存下来？历史是这样说的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the bull market in stocks survive rising inflation, bond yields? Here’s what history says<blockquote>股市牛市能否在通胀和债券收益率上升的情况下幸存下来？历史是这样说的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 18:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond James</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯：科技、非必需消费品和周期性行业历来表现优于大盘</blockquote></p><p>Rising Treasury yields are sending shivers through the stock market, particularly for highflying tech-related stocks. But history shows that when yields are rising “for the right reasons,” tech shares and cyclically sensitive stocks tend to thrive, according to Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>美国国债收益率上升令股市不寒而栗，尤其是对于高涨的科技相关股票而言。但雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）认为，历史表明，当收益率 “出于正确的原因 ”上升时，科技股和对周期性敏感的股票往往会蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p>The right reasons are “improving economic growth and a ‘healthy’ rise in inflation,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer for the private client group at Raymond James, in a weekend note. And those reasons have driven the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to just shy of 1.4%, or about their highest in a year. Yields also are coming off their largest weekly rise in six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）私人客户集团首席投资官拉里-亚当（Larry Adam）在周末的一份报告中说，正确的原因是 “经济增长的改善和通胀的'健康'上升”。这些原因导致 10 年期国债收益率略低于 1.4%，约为一年来的最高水平。收益率也出现了六周来的最大单周涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>Adam highlighted the chart below, which breaks down the average annualized performance of each of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors and the percentage of time each sector outperforms the S&P 500 in a rising rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>Adam 重点介绍了下图，该图表细分了标普500 11 个行业的平均年化表现，以及在利率上升的环境下每个行业跑赢标普500的时间百分比。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c934a97bed5bf56c97af1767cd874e\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RAYMOND JAMES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>雷蒙德·詹姆斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p>“Since 1990, during rising rate environments, the more cyclical sectors have outperformed,” Adam noted. “The average annualized outperformance relative to the S&P 500 and the percentage of time it outperforms the S&P 500 is largest for the tech, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors — three of our preferred sectors,” while higher dividend-yielding sectors like utilities, real estate and consumer staples tend to underperform.</p><p><blockquote>“亚当指出：”自 1990 年以来，在利率上升的环境下，周期性较强的行业表现优异。“科技、非必需消费品和工业部门--我们的三个首选行业--的平均年化跑赢标普500和跑赢标普500的时间百分比最大”，而公用事业、房地产和必需消费品等股息收益率较高的行业往往表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks wereputting in a mixed performanceon Monday, with the Nasdaq-100,down 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite,down 2.5%, suffering the steepest declines. Both are tilted toward large-cap, tech-oriented stocks.</p><p><blockquote>周一股市表现好坏参半，纳斯达克 100 指数下跌 2.6%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.5%，跌幅最大。两者都倾向于大盘、科技型股票。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average was positive, while the S&P 500 was off 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨，而标普500指数下跌0.8%。</blockquote></p><p>The rise in yields is being blamed in large part on expectations for a potential surge in inflation thanks to ramped up government spending and ultraloose monetary policy. Fears that the Federal Reserve could move to begin withdrawing some liquidity sooner than anticipated is seen helping to unsettle stocks, analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升在很大程度上归咎于人们对政府支出增加和超宽松货币政策可能导致通胀飙升的预期。分析师表示，对美联储可能比预期更早开始撤回部分流动性的担忧被认为有助于扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p>But Adam argued that inflation not only is unlikely to “short circuit” the rally, it may be a welcome development for stock-market bulls.</p><p><blockquote>但亚当认为，通货膨胀不仅不太可能 “短路 ”反弹，而且对股市多头来说可能是一个受欢迎的发展。</blockquote></p><p>“When analyzing how the S&P 500 performed under varying levels of core inflation, equities performed above-average in an environment where core inflation was between 1-4%,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“他写道：”在分析标普500在不同核心通胀水平下的表现时，在核心通胀率在 1-4% 之间的环境下，股市的表现高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation at those levels is generally considered healthy when it coincides with improving economic activity, Adam said. The reason is because companies have pricing power, allowing them to lift prices, while also reaping the benefits from productivity gains, which helps to boost earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚当说，当通胀水平与经济活动改善同时出现时，通常被认为是健康的。原因是公司拥有定价权，使他们能够提高价格，同时还能从生产率提高中获益，这有助于促进盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p>Raymond James expects core inflation to be around 2%. Adam said that when core inflation runs between 1% and 3%, the average performance relative to the S&P 500 on a year-over-year basis has been strongest for the technology (+6.8%), healthcare (+2.3%) and consumer discretionary sectors (+2%).</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯预计核心通胀率将在 2% 左右。Adam表示，当核心通胀率在1%至3%之间时，科技（+6.8%）、医疗保健（+2.3%）和非必需消费品行业（+2%）相对于标普500的平均同比表现最为强劲。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rising-bond-yields-mean-these-stock-market-sectors-have-the-most-to-gain-or-lose-11614014529?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rising-bond-yields-mean-these-stock-market-sectors-have-the-most-to-gain-or-lose-11614014529?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1107213324","content_text":"Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond JamesRising Treasury yields are sending shivers through the stock market, particularly for highflying tech-related stocks. But history shows that when yields are rising “for the right reasons,” tech shares and cyclically sensitive stocks tend to thrive, according to Raymond James.The right reasons are “improving economic growth and a ‘healthy’ rise in inflation,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer for the private client group at Raymond James, in a weekend note. And those reasons have driven the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to just shy of 1.4%, or about their highest in a year. Yields also are coming off their largest weekly rise in six weeks.Adam highlighted the chart below, which breaks down the average annualized performance of each of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors and the percentage of time each sector outperforms the S&P 500 in a rising rate environment.RAYMOND JAMES“Since 1990, during rising rate environments, the more cyclical sectors have outperformed,” Adam noted. “The average annualized outperformance relative to the S&P 500 and the percentage of time it outperforms the S&P 500 is largest for the tech, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors — three of our preferred sectors,” while higher dividend-yielding sectors like utilities, real estate and consumer staples tend to underperform.Stocks wereputting in a mixed performanceon Monday, with the Nasdaq-100,down 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite,down 2.5%, suffering the steepest declines. Both are tilted toward large-cap, tech-oriented stocks.The Dow Jones Industrial Average was positive, while the S&P 500 was off 0.8%.The rise in yields is being blamed in large part on expectations for a potential surge in inflation thanks to ramped up government spending and ultraloose monetary policy. Fears that the Federal Reserve could move to begin withdrawing some liquidity sooner than anticipated is seen helping to unsettle stocks, analysts said.But Adam argued that inflation not only is unlikely to “short circuit” the rally, it may be a welcome development for stock-market bulls.“When analyzing how the S&P 500 performed under varying levels of core inflation, equities performed above-average in an environment where core inflation was between 1-4%,” he wrote.Inflation at those levels is generally considered healthy when it coincides with improving economic activity, Adam said. The reason is because companies have pricing power, allowing them to lift prices, while also reaping the benefits from productivity gains, which helps to boost earnings growth.Raymond James expects core inflation to be around 2%. Adam said that when core inflation runs between 1% and 3%, the average performance relative to the S&P 500 on a year-over-year basis has been strongest for the technology (+6.8%), healthcare (+2.3%) and consumer discretionary sectors (+2%).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"NDX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":740,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/363835315"}
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