AM9
2021-02-28
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Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波幅期权</blockquote>
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We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司</b>过去几天股价飙升,该股一度较上周上涨近 200%(但仍较最近的空头挤压高点大幅下跌)。我们将研究像游戏驿站这样高波动性股票的期权中出现的独特情况,以及在交易期权之前可能需要考虑的一些事情。</blockquote></p><p><hr><b>Gamestop: The Expected Move</b></p><p><blockquote><hr/><b>游戏驿站:预期之举</b></blockquote></p><p>First, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):</p><p><blockquote>首先,看看期权如何为即将到来的走势定价。这是游戏驿站的期权 AI 预期走势图,截至本周五收盘,预计将上涨近 30%。下个月的定价约为 80%。包含盈利事件的月份(未经确认):</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35872724d8db887fa09d822d622ac8c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright Calls</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站:看涨期权价差 vs 彻底评级</blockquote></p><p>Using March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.</p><p><blockquote>以 3 月 19 日为到期日,我们首先查看看涨价差,并直接与直接评级进行比较。对于像游戏驿站这样波动性很大的股票,评级的股价可能会很昂贵。正因为如此,许多交易者诉诸购买远远超出资金评级。对上行评级的需求增加了这些评级的波动性,使它们相对于平价评级变得昂贵——这种现象被称为倾斜。然而,对于那些看涨的人来说,这可能会创造一个利用价差而不是直接购买看涨期权的机会。让我们看看怎么做。</blockquote></p><p>Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.</p><p><blockquote>在这里,我们将重点关注一种替代方案——使用借方利差来降低定向交易的总成本(同时通过降低盈亏平衡水平来提高交易本身的盈利概率)。它通过出售那些相对昂贵的平价评级来帮助购买更接近平价的看涨期权来做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p>With Gamestop near $105, the <b>March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread</b> is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站接近 105 美元,<b>3月19日110/190借方看涨期权利差</b>约为 15 美元,目标是 3 月 19 日的看涨预期走势。借方看涨期权利差需要股票在 3 月 19 日高于 125 美元才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p>As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:</p><p><blockquote>相比之下,GME 3月19日200评级的交易价格为29美元。这几乎是 200 看涨期权成本的两倍,前者需要在 3 月 19 日之前股票价格高于 229 美元……而看涨期权价差则需要股票价格高于 125 美元。以下是期权人工智能图表上这两笔交易的并排比较。首先,200 看涨期权:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b044a22bfbe5a8326f9aa3ebf56ed4fd\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:</p><p><blockquote>接下来,145/200借方看涨期权价差:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdf8545f07da48f770ef81cb4e5ac53\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的,不仅看涨期权价差更便宜,而且上行盈利的点更接近股票当前的交易位置。(如盈亏平衡的灰色价格所示。)</blockquote></p><p>A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).</p><p><blockquote>关于盈利概率的注释。这些交易显示的利润概率是基于分配给交易盈亏平衡点的增量。105 美元股票中 200 看涨期权的交易价格接近 50 个三角洲,这一事实表明游戏驿站波动性对其期权(难以借入、扭曲、散户对价外评级的需求)产生了多么扭曲的影响。</blockquote></p><p>Directional Butterflies vs Outright Puts</p><p><blockquote>定向蝴蝶与直接看跌期权</blockquote></p><p>High volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.</p><p><blockquote>高波动性也会影响看跌期权交易。像游戏驿站这样的高波动性股票的一个反直觉方面是,其隐含波动性可能会随着股价上涨而上升,随着股价下跌而下降。这与我们通常对波动性的看法相反。因此,随着股价下跌,购买直接看跌期权存在波动性暴跌(因此溢价暴跌)的风险。因此,即使股票朝着预期的方向移动,作为期权持有者,您也可能无法实现预期的收益。</blockquote></p><p>One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).</p><p><blockquote>对抗股票高隐含波动性的一种方法,尤其是在持有看跌观点的情况下,就是成为期权费的净卖家。卖给看涨期权交易者,而不是加入看跌期权交易者。传统上,这可能采取出售信用看涨期权利差的形式。但就 GME 而言,这意味着以比更接近资金的看涨期权更高的波动性购买(昂贵的)上行看涨期权(如上所述)。</blockquote></p><p>So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.</p><p><blockquote>因此,交易者可以考虑的一种期权策略是使用蝴蝶。一种更典型地与中性交易观点相关的期权交易,但在这里适应于实际创建一个有针对性的(看跌)方向观点。</blockquote></p><p>Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:</p><p><blockquote>例如,这里有一个蝴蝶,其中心打击集中在 80 美元的股票上,3 月 19 日到期:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cb8f9b0570e854f662f3031e50ca91\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.</p><p><blockquote>这种130/80/30的蝴蝶有115和45的盈亏平衡点,这意味着如果股票在3月19日到期时介于这两个价格之间,交易是有利可图的……如果股票处于或接近80美元,则会出现最大收益。它具有空头溢价的额外动力,如果股票保持在其范围内,如果隐含波动性被压缩,市场将获得上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1614334070724","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波幅期权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波幅期权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Options AI: Learn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 18:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Gamestop Corp.</b> shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司</b>过去几天股价飙升,该股一度较上周上涨近 200%(但仍较最近的空头挤压高点大幅下跌)。我们将研究像游戏驿站这样高波动性股票的期权中出现的独特情况,以及在交易期权之前可能需要考虑的一些事情。</blockquote></p><p><hr><b>Gamestop: The Expected Move</b></p><p><blockquote><hr/><b>游戏驿站:预期之举</b></blockquote></p><p>First, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):</p><p><blockquote>首先,看看期权如何为即将到来的走势定价。这是游戏驿站的期权 AI 预期走势图,截至本周五收盘,预计将上涨近 30%。下个月的定价约为 80%。包含盈利事件的月份(未经确认):</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35872724d8db887fa09d822d622ac8c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright Calls</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站:看涨期权价差 vs 彻底评级</blockquote></p><p>Using March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.</p><p><blockquote>以 3 月 19 日为到期日,我们首先查看看涨价差,并直接与直接评级进行比较。对于像游戏驿站这样波动性很大的股票,评级的股价可能会很昂贵。正因为如此,许多交易者诉诸购买远远超出资金评级。对上行评级的需求增加了这些评级的波动性,使它们相对于平价评级变得昂贵——这种现象被称为倾斜。然而,对于那些看涨的人来说,这可能会创造一个利用价差而不是直接购买看涨期权的机会。让我们看看怎么做。</blockquote></p><p>Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.</p><p><blockquote>在这里,我们将重点关注一种替代方案——使用借方利差来降低定向交易的总成本(同时通过降低盈亏平衡水平来提高交易本身的盈利概率)。它通过出售那些相对昂贵的平价评级来帮助购买更接近平价的看涨期权来做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p>With Gamestop near $105, the <b>March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread</b> is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站接近 105 美元,<b>3月19日110/190借方看涨期权利差</b>约为 15 美元,目标是 3 月 19 日的看涨预期走势。借方看涨期权利差需要股票在 3 月 19 日高于 125 美元才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p>As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:</p><p><blockquote>相比之下,GME 3月19日200评级的交易价格为29美元。这几乎是 200 看涨期权成本的两倍,前者需要在 3 月 19 日之前股票价格高于 229 美元……而看涨期权价差则需要股票价格高于 125 美元。以下是期权人工智能图表上这两笔交易的并排比较。首先,200 看涨期权:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b044a22bfbe5a8326f9aa3ebf56ed4fd\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:</p><p><blockquote>接下来,145/200借方看涨期权价差:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdf8545f07da48f770ef81cb4e5ac53\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的,不仅看涨期权价差更便宜,而且上行盈利的点更接近股票当前的交易位置。(如盈亏平衡的灰色价格所示。)</blockquote></p><p>A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).</p><p><blockquote>关于盈利概率的注释。这些交易显示的利润概率是基于分配给交易盈亏平衡点的增量。105 美元股票中 200 看涨期权的交易价格接近 50 个三角洲,这一事实表明游戏驿站波动性对其期权(难以借入、扭曲、散户对价外评级的需求)产生了多么扭曲的影响。</blockquote></p><p>Directional Butterflies vs Outright Puts</p><p><blockquote>定向蝴蝶与直接看跌期权</blockquote></p><p>High volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.</p><p><blockquote>高波动性也会影响看跌期权交易。像游戏驿站这样的高波动性股票的一个反直觉方面是,其隐含波动性可能会随着股价上涨而上升,随着股价下跌而下降。这与我们通常对波动性的看法相反。因此,随着股价下跌,购买直接看跌期权存在波动性暴跌(因此溢价暴跌)的风险。因此,即使股票朝着预期的方向移动,作为期权持有者,您也可能无法实现预期的收益。</blockquote></p><p>One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).</p><p><blockquote>对抗股票高隐含波动性的一种方法,尤其是在持有看跌观点的情况下,就是成为期权费的净卖家。卖给看涨期权交易者,而不是加入看跌期权交易者。传统上,这可能采取出售信用看涨期权利差的形式。但就 GME 而言,这意味着以比更接近资金的看涨期权更高的波动性购买(昂贵的)上行看涨期权(如上所述)。</blockquote></p><p>So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.</p><p><blockquote>因此,交易者可以考虑的一种期权策略是使用蝴蝶。一种更典型地与中性交易观点相关的期权交易,但在这里适应于实际创建一个有针对性的(看跌)方向观点。</blockquote></p><p>Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:</p><p><blockquote>例如,这里有一个蝴蝶,其中心打击集中在 80 美元的股票上,3 月 19 日到期:</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cb8f9b0570e854f662f3031e50ca91\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.</p><p><blockquote>这种130/80/30的蝴蝶有115和45的盈亏平衡点,这意味着如果股票在3月19日到期时介于这两个价格之间,交易是有利可图的……如果股票处于或接近80美元,则会出现最大收益。它具有空头溢价的额外动力,如果股票保持在其范围内,如果隐含波动性被压缩,市场将获得上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://learn.optionsai.com/gamestop-and-high-volatility-options/\">Options AI: Learn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://learn.optionsai.com/gamestop-and-high-volatility-options/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146313632","content_text":"Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.Gamestop: The Expected MoveFirst, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright CallsUsing March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.With Gamestop near $105, the March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).Directional Butterflies vs Outright PutsHigh volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3355,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/366517825"}
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