Nat Gas Markets Fall on Friday

UCLA的Frank
2018-12-29

Natural gas markets broke down a bit during the day on Friday, reaching towards the $3.25 area again. The $3.25 level of course is where we had seen a gap previously, so it should offer a bit of support.

Natural gas markets broke down a bit during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see weakness in the natural gas markets. The 50 day EMA is above and turning lower, so I think that any rally at this point will probably show signs of exhaustion. If we were to break above the 50 day EMA, we could take off to the $4.00 level. This is an area that was previous support, so it should now be resistance. Ultimately, I like fading rallies as natural gas markets are most decidedly bearish but we also may have got a bit ahead of ourselves in the short term. Because of this, we will probably need to let the market bounced a bit before you get involved.

Granted, I think the $3.25 level could cause a bit of a bounce but at this point we are most decidedly rolling over and of course we have massive amounts of supply coming online again. As we got the massive surge higher, fracking companies threw supply as fast as it would be bought. After all, it’s been a long time since fracking companies have been able to sell natural gas at $4.55. Ultimately, I think that we will probably break down to the $3.00 level, but we may need to build up enough momentum to make that happen. I don’t have any interest in buying this market even though I fully anticipate the bounces will come quick and hard. Take advantage of Shorty opportunities near the 50 EMA.

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$

$天然气ETF-United States(UNG)$

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$

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精彩评论

  • 核桃妈的女婿
    2018-12-29
    核桃妈的女婿
    总得来说 天然气未来的还是空,但是3.25这个支撑位有点强,可能会来一波反弹 为未来的继续下跌提供一定的动能,但是大哥他不会去博这波反弹,空到2.8为止,这个理解没问题吧 大哥!
    • UCLA的Frank回复AnchorYU
      用Excel那叫做推理。计算是涉及多个层面的,要回答究竟是涨还是跌?涨或者跌的极限值,还有达到极限值所需要的时间等等
    • AnchorYU回复UCLA的Frank
      受教了,谢谢哥
      计算机计算是通过建立模型演算嘛?我自己是用excel算个大概看看
    • UCLA的Frank回复AnchorYU
      预测肯定不是基于内心的,内心是人有情绪。预测是要做到客观和理性,所以预测是计算机。我个人保守确实是能到2.7-2.8。但是计算机认为要到2.5-2.7。所以,话不能说满,要留有进退之尺度
    • UCLA的Frank
      搏反弹很危险,小则踏空,大则自毁长城导致套牢。所以这种体系往往是跳梁小丑死的最惨。
    • AnchorYU
      按照大哥的内心进一步预期,大哥可能内心判断会到2.5到2.6附近,可能由于低调保守,所以预期2.8到3吧[微笑],对吗大哥
  • Joincong
    2018-12-29
    Joincong
    这图谷歌不给我翻译😂
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