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2021-02-26
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Worldwide chip shortage expected to last into next year, and that’s good news for semiconductor stocks<blockquote>全球芯片短缺预计将持续到明年，这对半导体股来说是个好消息</blockquote>
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The cause seems to be a combination of increased demand as people scooped up electronics during the COVID-19 pandemic, limited manufacturing capacity to meet that demand, and the U.S.-China trade war.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商和消费者很难获得芯片，给一系列行业带来了困难。原因似乎是人们在COVID-19大流行期间抢购电子产品，需求增加、满足需求的制造能力有限以及中美贸易战。</blockquote></p><p> Maribel Lopez, principal analyst at Lopez Research, told MarketWatch in an interview the chip industry is facing “a perfect storm” of demand and supply issues that is unlikely to resolve soon.</p><p><blockquote>Lopez Research首席分析师Maribel Lopez在接受MarketWatch采访时表示，芯片行业正面临供需问题的“完美风暴”，而且不太可能很快得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> “Unless we have a major economic meltdown, which is obviously possible, one of the things that’s happening right now is that almost anything you buy is going to have a chip in it,” Lopez said. “You can’t buy a dumb product.”</p><p><blockquote>洛佩兹说：“除非我们发生重大经济崩溃（这显然是可能的），否则现在正在发生的事情之一是，你购买的几乎所有东西都会含有芯片。”“你不能买愚蠢的产品。”</blockquote></p><p> While high demand for mobile-device chips in 2020 was expected, the surge in demand for PC-based chips was not, she said. The trend of shrinking chips down to where they can fit in places they haven’t been able to fit before has made the manufacturing process more complex, Lopez noted. The pandemic took those trends and placed an added level of volatility on the supply chains and manufacturing practices dealing with them.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，虽然预计2020年对移动设备芯片的需求会很高，但对基于PC的芯片的需求却不会激增。洛佩兹指出，将芯片缩小到可以容纳以前无法容纳的地方的趋势使得制造过程变得更加复杂。疫情抓住了这些趋势，给供应链和应对这些趋势的制造实践带来了更大的波动。</blockquote></p><p> The full impact of the chip shortage, however, didn’t hit home to the wider market until General Motors Co. ,Ford Motor Co. and other auto makers said recently they’ve had to shut down production on certain models because of a lack of semiconductors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，芯片短缺的全面影响并没有波及更广泛的市场，直到通用汽车公司、福特汽车公司和其他汽车制造商最近表示，由于缺乏芯片短缺，他们不得不关闭某些车型的生产。半导体。</blockquote></p><p> Amid growing concerns from industry leaders,President Joe Biden is set to sign an executive order Wednesday calling for the review of critical U.S. manufacturing supply chains that may rely too much on China, particularly those involving chips and high-capacity batteries.</p><p><blockquote>在行业领袖日益担忧的情况下，总统乔·拜登将于周三签署一项行政命令，呼吁对可能过度依赖中国的关键美国制造业供应链进行审查，特别是涉及芯片和高容量电池的供应链。</blockquote></p><p> While the shortage has caused pain for consumers and companies, it has not hurt the chip industry. In a recent note, J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur said this past earnings season was the first the firm has tracked where all covered chip makers not only beat estimates for the quarter but topped expectations for forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>虽然短缺给消费者和公司带来了痛苦，但并没有伤害芯片行业。摩根大通分析师哈兰·苏尔(Harlan Sur)在最近的一份报告中表示，过去的财报季是该公司首次跟踪所有相关芯片制造商不仅超出了本季度的预期，而且超出了预期。</blockquote></p><p> Chip stocks have soared to all-time highs. The PHLX Semiconductor Index,which tracks dozens of the largest chip-related stocks, has gained more than 70% in the past 12 months, compared with a 21% gain on the S&P 500 index,and a 47% rise on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>芯片股飙升至历史新高。跟踪数十只最大芯片相关股票的PHLX半导体指数在过去12个月中上涨了70%以上，而标普500指数上涨了21%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨了47%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2597bfd2bf84e110ca8642c9ba437a06\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"680\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Analysts believe there could be more gains ahead, though, as demand sends prices higher and boosts companies throughout the semiconductor space. Even as stock fundamentals appear stretched thin, Sur said “we believe semi companies are shipping 10% to 30% BELOW current demand levels and it will take at least 3-4 quarters for supply to catch up with demand and then another 1-2 quarters for inventories at customers/distribution channels to be replenished back to normal levels.”</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师认为，随着需求推高价格并提振整个半导体领域的公司，未来可能会出现更多涨幅。尽管股票基本面显得捉襟见肘，Sur表示，“我们认为半导体公司的出货量比当前需求水平低10%至30%，供应至少需要3-4个季度才能赶上需求，然后再需要1-2个季度客户/分销渠道的库存才能补充到正常水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Susquehanna Financial analyst Christopher Rolland recently said he expects chip shortages will only get worse heading into the spring. Lead times, or the amount of time an order is placed between it delivery, for semiconductors are entering a “danger zone” of above 14 weeks, the longest they’ve been since the last chip boom of 2018, Rolland said.</p><p><blockquote>Susquehanna Financial分析师Christopher Rolland最近表示，他预计芯片短缺问题在春季只会变得更加严重。Rolland表示，半导体的交货时间（即订单交付之间的时间）正在进入超过14周的“危险区”，这是自2018年上一次芯片繁荣以来最长的一次。</blockquote></p><p> While that may be good in the short term for chip suppliers and makers, with some companies estimating demand outstripping supply for several quarters, in the long run it could backfire if not managed well, Rolland said.</p><p><blockquote>罗兰表示，虽然这在短期内对芯片供应商和制造商来说可能是好事，一些公司估计几个季度的需求将超过供应，但从长远来看，如果管理不善，可能会适得其反。</blockquote></p><p> The chip industry still remembers what happened less than three years ago when it was drowning in a glut of oversupply. Back then, customersoverbought supplies of chipsto lock in lower prices because prices had soared in the 2018 chip boom, causing a steep drop in demand, leaving chip makers with large inventories and plummeting stock prices. Nvidia Corp.,Micron Technology Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.,along with other industry players were all adversely affected by the glut.</p><p><blockquote>芯片行业仍然记得不到三年前发生的事情，当时它正淹没在供过于求的过剩之中。当时，客户过度购买芯片供应以锁定较低的价格，因为在2018年芯片热潮中价格飙升，导致需求急剧下降，导致芯片制造商库存大量，股价暴跌。英伟达公司(Nvidia Corp.)、美光科技公司(Micron Technology Inc.)和超微设备公司(Advanced Micro Devices Inc.)以及其他行业参与者都受到了供过于求的不利影响。</blockquote></p><p> Those companies are doing what they can to avoid a repeat of the pain that came at the end of the 2018 boom and resulting shortage.Nvidia, for example,said it hoped to ease shortages of gaming cards by launching a chip designed for cryptocurrency mining as cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum continue soaring to record highs.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司正在尽其所能避免重蹈2018年繁荣结束时带来的痛苦和随之而来的短缺。例如，英伟达表示，希望通过推出专为加密货币挖矿设计的芯片来缓解游戏卡的短缺随着比特币和以太币等加密货币继续飙升至历史新高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While claims of “this time it’s different” should always be taken with a grain of salt, it may very well be different this time around given the unprecedented mix of factors the world has gone through over the past year. Stifel analyst Matthew Sheerin, who follows tech supply chain issues, is more concerned with continued supply-chain disruptions than he is over-ordering.</p><p><blockquote>虽然“这一次不同”的说法应该持保留态度，但鉴于世界在过去一年中经历了前所未有的各种因素，这一次很可能会有所不同。Stifel分析师Matthew Sheerin关注科技供应链问题，他更担心供应链持续中断，而不是过度订购。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve heard from countless component suppliers and distributors about elevated book-to-bill levels and growing backlog, typically a ‘double-ordering’ red flag,” Sheering said.</p><p><blockquote>Sheering表示：“我们从无数零部件供应商和分销商那里听说订单比水平上升和积压订单不断增加，这通常是一个‘双重订购’的危险信号。”</blockquote></p><p> “We don’t see any major correction on the horizon, given ongoing supply constraints as well as continued optimism about improving demand in 2H21,” the Stifel analyst said. “We remain more concerned with continued supply disruptions, and increased materials costs, than we do an imminent multi-quarter inventory correction.”</p><p><blockquote>Stifel分析师表示：“鉴于持续的供应限制以及对21年下半年需求改善的持续乐观态度，我们认为不会出现任何重大调整。”“我们仍然更担心持续的供应中断和材料成本增加，而不是即将到来的多季度库存调整。”</blockquote></p><p> Chip-equipment suppliers seem confident that chip manufacturers will build out their capacity because of the shortage and next-generation designs that won’t be well served by existing fabs.Applied Materials Inc. said last week it expects to supply a decade-plus investment cycle for chip makers. That followed strong earnings and outlooks from chip-making equipment companiesKLA Corp. and Lam Research Corp. noting that chip makers needed to build out their manufacturing capacities even further.</p><p><blockquote>芯片设备供应商似乎对芯片制造商将扩大产能充满信心，因为现有晶圆厂无法很好地提供下一代设计。应用材料公司上周表示，预计将提供十年以上的投资芯片制造商的周期。此前，芯片制造设备公司KLA Corp.和Lam Research Corp.公布了强劲的盈利和前景，并指出芯片制造商需要进一步增强制造能力。</blockquote></p><p> Case in point,Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.,the third-party manufacturing giant that fabricates silicon for many chip makers like Apple Inc.AAPL,and others, said it plans to spend $28 billion to build out its facilities in 2021.Intel Corp. has shied away from a plan to outsource manufacturing chips to companies like TSMC, after encountering problems with its own process technology.</p><p><blockquote>一个典型的例子是，为苹果等许多芯片制造商生产硅的第三方制造巨头台积电公司表示，计划在2021年斥资280亿美元扩建其工厂。英特尔公司在自己的工艺技术遇到问题后，回避了将芯片制造外包给台积电等公司的计划。</blockquote></p><p> AMD said it expects a strong 2021 earlier this year, and announcednew laptop and data-center chips.Qualcomm Inc. also reported strong results despite shortages forecast a V-shaped recovery. Meanwhile, Micron appears positioned to take advantage in a rebound in demand.</p><p><blockquote>AMD今年早些时候表示，预计2021年将表现强劲，并宣布了新的笔记本电脑和数据中心芯片。高通公司也报告了强劲的业绩，尽管短缺预测将出现V形复苏。与此同时，美光科技似乎有能力利用需求反弹的机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Worldwide chip shortage expected to last into next year, and that’s good news for semiconductor stocks<blockquote>全球芯片短缺预计将持续到明年，这对半导体股来说是个好消息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWorldwide chip shortage expected to last into next year, and that’s good news for semiconductor stocks<blockquote>全球芯片短缺预计将持续到明年，这对半导体股来说是个好消息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-25 14:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Chip stocks are trading at record highs amid demand spike due to pandemic and other factors, but analysts say continuing short supply of semis are likely to send them higher despite memories of 2018 shortage that led to oversupply glut</p><p><blockquote>由于大流行和其他因素导致需求激增，芯片股交易价格创历史新高，但分析师表示，尽管2018年的短缺导致供应过剩，但半成品供应持续短缺可能会推高芯片股</blockquote></p><p> A global shortage of semiconductors has pushed chip stocks to record highs, and analysts expect that chips will continue to be in short supply at least through the end of the year as COVID-19 pushes the world further into the digital realm and the industry struggles to keep up with demand.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体短缺已将芯片股推至历史新高，分析师预计，随着COVID-19将世界进一步推向数字领域，而该行业难以跟上需求，芯片将至少持续到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p> Chips have been hard to come by for auto makers and consumers, causing difficulties in a range of industries. The cause seems to be a combination of increased demand as people scooped up electronics during the COVID-19 pandemic, limited manufacturing capacity to meet that demand, and the U.S.-China trade war.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商和消费者很难获得芯片，给一系列行业带来了困难。原因似乎是人们在COVID-19大流行期间抢购电子产品，需求增加、满足需求的制造能力有限以及中美贸易战。</blockquote></p><p> Maribel Lopez, principal analyst at Lopez Research, told MarketWatch in an interview the chip industry is facing “a perfect storm” of demand and supply issues that is unlikely to resolve soon.</p><p><blockquote>Lopez Research首席分析师Maribel Lopez在接受MarketWatch采访时表示，芯片行业正面临供需问题的“完美风暴”，而且不太可能很快得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> “Unless we have a major economic meltdown, which is obviously possible, one of the things that’s happening right now is that almost anything you buy is going to have a chip in it,” Lopez said. “You can’t buy a dumb product.”</p><p><blockquote>洛佩兹说：“除非我们发生重大经济崩溃（这显然是可能的），否则现在正在发生的事情之一是，你购买的几乎所有东西都会含有芯片。”“你不能买愚蠢的产品。”</blockquote></p><p> While high demand for mobile-device chips in 2020 was expected, the surge in demand for PC-based chips was not, she said. The trend of shrinking chips down to where they can fit in places they haven’t been able to fit before has made the manufacturing process more complex, Lopez noted. The pandemic took those trends and placed an added level of volatility on the supply chains and manufacturing practices dealing with them.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，虽然预计2020年对移动设备芯片的需求会很高，但对基于PC的芯片的需求却不会激增。洛佩兹指出，将芯片缩小到可以容纳以前无法容纳的地方的趋势使得制造过程变得更加复杂。疫情抓住了这些趋势，给供应链和应对这些趋势的制造实践带来了更大的波动。</blockquote></p><p> The full impact of the chip shortage, however, didn’t hit home to the wider market until General Motors Co. ,Ford Motor Co. and other auto makers said recently they’ve had to shut down production on certain models because of a lack of semiconductors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，芯片短缺的全面影响并没有波及更广泛的市场，直到通用汽车公司、福特汽车公司和其他汽车制造商最近表示，由于缺乏芯片短缺，他们不得不关闭某些车型的生产。半导体。</blockquote></p><p> Amid growing concerns from industry leaders,President Joe Biden is set to sign an executive order Wednesday calling for the review of critical U.S. manufacturing supply chains that may rely too much on China, particularly those involving chips and high-capacity batteries.</p><p><blockquote>在行业领袖日益担忧的情况下，总统乔·拜登将于周三签署一项行政命令，呼吁对可能过度依赖中国的关键美国制造业供应链进行审查，特别是涉及芯片和高容量电池的供应链。</blockquote></p><p> While the shortage has caused pain for consumers and companies, it has not hurt the chip industry. In a recent note, J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur said this past earnings season was the first the firm has tracked where all covered chip makers not only beat estimates for the quarter but topped expectations for forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>虽然短缺给消费者和公司带来了痛苦，但并没有伤害芯片行业。摩根大通分析师哈兰·苏尔(Harlan Sur)在最近的一份报告中表示，过去的财报季是该公司首次跟踪所有相关芯片制造商不仅超出了本季度的预期，而且超出了预期。</blockquote></p><p> Chip stocks have soared to all-time highs. The PHLX Semiconductor Index,which tracks dozens of the largest chip-related stocks, has gained more than 70% in the past 12 months, compared with a 21% gain on the S&P 500 index,and a 47% rise on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>芯片股飙升至历史新高。跟踪数十只最大芯片相关股票的PHLX半导体指数在过去12个月中上涨了70%以上，而标普500指数上涨了21%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨了47%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2597bfd2bf84e110ca8642c9ba437a06\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"680\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Analysts believe there could be more gains ahead, though, as demand sends prices higher and boosts companies throughout the semiconductor space. Even as stock fundamentals appear stretched thin, Sur said “we believe semi companies are shipping 10% to 30% BELOW current demand levels and it will take at least 3-4 quarters for supply to catch up with demand and then another 1-2 quarters for inventories at customers/distribution channels to be replenished back to normal levels.”</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师认为，随着需求推高价格并提振整个半导体领域的公司，未来可能会出现更多涨幅。尽管股票基本面显得捉襟见肘，Sur表示，“我们认为半导体公司的出货量比当前需求水平低10%至30%，供应至少需要3-4个季度才能赶上需求，然后再需要1-2个季度客户/分销渠道的库存才能补充到正常水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Susquehanna Financial analyst Christopher Rolland recently said he expects chip shortages will only get worse heading into the spring. Lead times, or the amount of time an order is placed between it delivery, for semiconductors are entering a “danger zone” of above 14 weeks, the longest they’ve been since the last chip boom of 2018, Rolland said.</p><p><blockquote>Susquehanna Financial分析师Christopher Rolland最近表示，他预计芯片短缺问题在春季只会变得更加严重。Rolland表示，半导体的交货时间（即订单交付之间的时间）正在进入超过14周的“危险区”，这是自2018年上一次芯片繁荣以来最长的一次。</blockquote></p><p> While that may be good in the short term for chip suppliers and makers, with some companies estimating demand outstripping supply for several quarters, in the long run it could backfire if not managed well, Rolland said.</p><p><blockquote>罗兰表示，虽然这在短期内对芯片供应商和制造商来说可能是好事，一些公司估计几个季度的需求将超过供应，但从长远来看，如果管理不善，可能会适得其反。</blockquote></p><p> The chip industry still remembers what happened less than three years ago when it was drowning in a glut of oversupply. Back then, customersoverbought supplies of chipsto lock in lower prices because prices had soared in the 2018 chip boom, causing a steep drop in demand, leaving chip makers with large inventories and plummeting stock prices. Nvidia Corp.,Micron Technology Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.,along with other industry players were all adversely affected by the glut.</p><p><blockquote>芯片行业仍然记得不到三年前发生的事情，当时它正淹没在供过于求的过剩之中。当时，客户过度购买芯片供应以锁定较低的价格，因为在2018年芯片热潮中价格飙升，导致需求急剧下降，导致芯片制造商库存大量，股价暴跌。英伟达公司(Nvidia Corp.)、美光科技公司(Micron Technology Inc.)和超微设备公司(Advanced Micro Devices Inc.)以及其他行业参与者都受到了供过于求的不利影响。</blockquote></p><p> Those companies are doing what they can to avoid a repeat of the pain that came at the end of the 2018 boom and resulting shortage.Nvidia, for example,said it hoped to ease shortages of gaming cards by launching a chip designed for cryptocurrency mining as cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum continue soaring to record highs.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司正在尽其所能避免重蹈2018年繁荣结束时带来的痛苦和随之而来的短缺。例如，英伟达表示，希望通过推出专为加密货币挖矿设计的芯片来缓解游戏卡的短缺随着比特币和以太币等加密货币继续飙升至历史新高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> While claims of “this time it’s different” should always be taken with a grain of salt, it may very well be different this time around given the unprecedented mix of factors the world has gone through over the past year. Stifel analyst Matthew Sheerin, who follows tech supply chain issues, is more concerned with continued supply-chain disruptions than he is over-ordering.</p><p><blockquote>虽然“这一次不同”的说法应该持保留态度，但鉴于世界在过去一年中经历了前所未有的各种因素，这一次很可能会有所不同。Stifel分析师Matthew Sheerin关注科技供应链问题，他更担心供应链持续中断，而不是过度订购。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve heard from countless component suppliers and distributors about elevated book-to-bill levels and growing backlog, typically a ‘double-ordering’ red flag,” Sheering said.</p><p><blockquote>Sheering表示：“我们从无数零部件供应商和分销商那里听说订单比水平上升和积压订单不断增加，这通常是一个‘双重订购’的危险信号。”</blockquote></p><p> “We don’t see any major correction on the horizon, given ongoing supply constraints as well as continued optimism about improving demand in 2H21,” the Stifel analyst said. “We remain more concerned with continued supply disruptions, and increased materials costs, than we do an imminent multi-quarter inventory correction.”</p><p><blockquote>Stifel分析师表示：“鉴于持续的供应限制以及对21年下半年需求改善的持续乐观态度，我们认为不会出现任何重大调整。”“我们仍然更担心持续的供应中断和材料成本增加，而不是即将到来的多季度库存调整。”</blockquote></p><p> Chip-equipment suppliers seem confident that chip manufacturers will build out their capacity because of the shortage and next-generation designs that won’t be well served by existing fabs.Applied Materials Inc. said last week it expects to supply a decade-plus investment cycle for chip makers. That followed strong earnings and outlooks from chip-making equipment companiesKLA Corp. and Lam Research Corp. noting that chip makers needed to build out their manufacturing capacities even further.</p><p><blockquote>芯片设备供应商似乎对芯片制造商将扩大产能充满信心，因为现有晶圆厂无法很好地提供下一代设计。应用材料公司上周表示，预计将提供十年以上的投资芯片制造商的周期。此前，芯片制造设备公司KLA Corp.和Lam Research Corp.公布了强劲的盈利和前景，并指出芯片制造商需要进一步增强制造能力。</blockquote></p><p> Case in point,Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.,the third-party manufacturing giant that fabricates silicon for many chip makers like Apple Inc.AAPL,and others, said it plans to spend $28 billion to build out its facilities in 2021.Intel Corp. has shied away from a plan to outsource manufacturing chips to companies like TSMC, after encountering problems with its own process technology.</p><p><blockquote>一个典型的例子是，为苹果等许多芯片制造商生产硅的第三方制造巨头台积电公司表示，计划在2021年斥资280亿美元扩建其工厂。英特尔公司在自己的工艺技术遇到问题后，回避了将芯片制造外包给台积电等公司的计划。</blockquote></p><p> AMD said it expects a strong 2021 earlier this year, and announcednew laptop and data-center chips.Qualcomm Inc. also reported strong results despite shortages forecast a V-shaped recovery. Meanwhile, Micron appears positioned to take advantage in a rebound in demand.</p><p><blockquote>AMD今年早些时候表示，预计2021年将表现强劲，并宣布了新的笔记本电脑和数据中心芯片。高通公司也报告了强劲的业绩，尽管短缺预测将出现V形复苏。与此同时，美光科技似乎有能力利用需求反弹的机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/worldwide-chip-shortage-expected-to-last-into-next-year-and-thats-good-news-for-semiconductor-stocks-11614020156?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦","AAPL":"苹果","KLAC":"科磊","MU":"美光科技","SSNLF":"三星电子","SOX":"费城半导体指数","LRCX":"拉姆研究","F":"福特汽车","QCOM":"高通","GM":"通用汽车","AMD":"美国超微公司","AMAT":"应用材料","NVDA":"英伟达","TSM":"台积电","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/worldwide-chip-shortage-expected-to-last-into-next-year-and-thats-good-news-for-semiconductor-stocks-11614020156?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1147687162","content_text":"Chip stocks are trading at record highs amid demand spike due to pandemic and other factors, but analysts say continuing short supply of semis are likely to send them higher despite memories of 2018 shortage that led to oversupply glut\nA global shortage of semiconductors has pushed chip stocks to record highs, and analysts expect that chips will continue to be in short supply at least through the end of the year as COVID-19 pushes the world further into the digital realm and the industry struggles to keep up with demand.\nChips have been hard to come by for auto makers and consumers, causing difficulties in a range of industries. The cause seems to be a combination of increased demand as people scooped up electronics during the COVID-19 pandemic, limited manufacturing capacity to meet that demand, and the U.S.-China trade war.\nMaribel Lopez, principal analyst at Lopez Research, told MarketWatch in an interview the chip industry is facing “a perfect storm” of demand and supply issues that is unlikely to resolve soon.\n“Unless we have a major economic meltdown, which is obviously possible, one of the things that’s happening right now is that almost anything you buy is going to have a chip in it,” Lopez said. “You can’t buy a dumb product.”\nWhile high demand for mobile-device chips in 2020 was expected, the surge in demand for PC-based chips was not, she said. The trend of shrinking chips down to where they can fit in places they haven’t been able to fit before has made the manufacturing process more complex, Lopez noted. The pandemic took those trends and placed an added level of volatility on the supply chains and manufacturing practices dealing with them.\nThe full impact of the chip shortage, however, didn’t hit home to the wider market until General Motors Co. ,Ford Motor Co. and other auto makers said recently they’ve had to shut down production on certain models because of a lack of semiconductors.\nAmid growing concerns from industry leaders,President Joe Biden is set to sign an executive order Wednesday calling for the review of critical U.S. manufacturing supply chains that may rely too much on China, particularly those involving chips and high-capacity batteries.\nWhile the shortage has caused pain for consumers and companies, it has not hurt the chip industry. In a recent note, J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur said this past earnings season was the first the firm has tracked where all covered chip makers not only beat estimates for the quarter but topped expectations for forecasts.\nChip stocks have soared to all-time highs. The PHLX Semiconductor Index,which tracks dozens of the largest chip-related stocks, has gained more than 70% in the past 12 months, compared with a 21% gain on the S&P 500 index,and a 47% rise on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index.\n\nAnalysts believe there could be more gains ahead, though, as demand sends prices higher and boosts companies throughout the semiconductor space. Even as stock fundamentals appear stretched thin, Sur said “we believe semi companies are shipping 10% to 30% BELOW current demand levels and it will take at least 3-4 quarters for supply to catch up with demand and then another 1-2 quarters for inventories at customers/distribution channels to be replenished back to normal levels.”\nSusquehanna Financial analyst Christopher Rolland recently said he expects chip shortages will only get worse heading into the spring. Lead times, or the amount of time an order is placed between it delivery, for semiconductors are entering a “danger zone” of above 14 weeks, the longest they’ve been since the last chip boom of 2018, Rolland said.\nWhile that may be good in the short term for chip suppliers and makers, with some companies estimating demand outstripping supply for several quarters, in the long run it could backfire if not managed well, Rolland said.\nThe chip industry still remembers what happened less than three years ago when it was drowning in a glut of oversupply. Back then, customersoverbought supplies of chipsto lock in lower prices because prices had soared in the 2018 chip boom, causing a steep drop in demand, leaving chip makers with large inventories and plummeting stock prices. Nvidia Corp.,Micron Technology Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.,along with other industry players were all adversely affected by the glut.\nThose companies are doing what they can to avoid a repeat of the pain that came at the end of the 2018 boom and resulting shortage.Nvidia, for example,said it hoped to ease shortages of gaming cards by launching a chip designed for cryptocurrency mining as cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum continue soaring to record highs.\nWhile claims of “this time it’s different” should always be taken with a grain of salt, it may very well be different this time around given the unprecedented mix of factors the world has gone through over the past year. Stifel analyst Matthew Sheerin, who follows tech supply chain issues, is more concerned with continued supply-chain disruptions than he is over-ordering.\n“We’ve heard from countless component suppliers and distributors about elevated book-to-bill levels and growing backlog, typically a ‘double-ordering’ red flag,” Sheering said.\n“We don’t see any major correction on the horizon, given ongoing supply constraints as well as continued optimism about improving demand in 2H21,” the Stifel analyst said. “We remain more concerned with continued supply disruptions, and increased materials costs, than we do an imminent multi-quarter inventory correction.”\nChip-equipment suppliers seem confident that chip manufacturers will build out their capacity because of the shortage and next-generation designs that won’t be well served by existing fabs.Applied Materials Inc. said last week it expects to supply a decade-plus investment cycle for chip makers. That followed strong earnings and outlooks from chip-making equipment companiesKLA Corp. and Lam Research Corp. noting that chip makers needed to build out their manufacturing capacities even further.\nCase in point,Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.,the third-party manufacturing giant that fabricates silicon for many chip makers like Apple Inc.AAPL,and others, said it plans to spend $28 billion to build out its facilities in 2021.Intel Corp. has shied away from a plan to outsource manufacturing chips to companies like TSMC, after encountering problems with its own process technology.\nAMD said it expects a strong 2021 earlier this year, and announcednew laptop and data-center chips.Qualcomm Inc. also reported strong results despite shortages forecast a V-shaped recovery. Meanwhile, Micron appears positioned to take advantage in a rebound in demand.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"KLAC":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"GM":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"AMAT":0.9,"LRCX":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"MU":0.9,"SOX":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1286,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/368806499"}
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