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2021-02-23
Interesting
If Inflation Is Coming, These Stocks Will Benefit the Most<blockquote>如果通胀来临，这些股票将受益最大</blockquote>
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According to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, investors currently expect inflation to run at above 2% for the next 10 years. With inflation expectations up, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 1.37% from 0.67% since Sept. 23, the beginning of a rally in riskier assets that benefit from a strengthening economy.Expectations for trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulusand further economic reopening spurredby the vaccine rolloutare driving the market movements.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月，通胀预期强劲上升。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，投资者目前预计未来10年通胀率将在2%以上运行。随着通胀预期的上升，10年期国债收益率从9月23日的0.67%升至1.37%，这是受益于经济走强的风险资产的反弹。疫苗推出刺激经济的数万亿美元财政刺激和进一步经济重新开放的预期推动了市场的走势。</blockquote></p><p> The higher inflation forecast is causing some anxiety for stock investors, though.Momentary spikes in long-term Treasury yields pressure equity valuations A higher risk-free rate of return makes stocks less attractive. But inflation often reflects strong economic demand, which provides a major boost to near-term earnings.</p><p><blockquote>不过，较高的通胀预测给股票投资者带来了一些焦虑。长期国债收益率的短暂飙升给股票估值带来压力较高的无风险回报率降低了股票的吸引力。但通胀往往反映了强劲的经济需求，这对近期收益有重大提振。</blockquote></p><p> If the economy begins a fresh expansion, these dynamics favor cyclical and more economically-sensitive stocks. Financials, energy and industrial sectors would benefit the most. For banks, loans are more profitable when long-term rates are higher. Demand for oil and other energy sources increases during expansionary times because manufacturers and consumers consumer more during these times. Industrials typically increase production to supply projects tied to business and consumer spending during times of expansion.</p><p><blockquote>如果经济开始新的扩张，这些动态有利于周期性和对经济更敏感的股票。金融、能源和工业部门将受益最大。对于银行来说，当长期利率较高时，贷款利润更高。在扩张时期，对石油和其他能源的需求会增加，因为制造商和消费者在这些时期消费更多。在扩张时期，工业通常会增加产量，以供应与企业和消费者支出相关的项目。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from Evercore strategists, the financial sector sees the highest degree of outperformance against the S&P 500 when long-term yields rise. The energy sector is the second-best performer and industrials are the third-best. The sectors least correlated with higher interest rates are defensive ones, or those which have revenues and earnings that are less influenced by economic demand. Utilities and consumer staples, for example, don’t perform as well during inflationary times.</p><p><blockquote>根据Evercore策略师的数据，当长期收益率上升时，金融业相对于标普500的表现最高。能源行业表现第二好，工业行业表现第三好。与高利率相关性最小的行业是防御性行业，或者那些收入和收益受经济需求影响较小的行业。例如，公用事业和必需消费品在通货膨胀时期表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF(ticker: KBE) is up 71% since Sept. 23, trouncing the S&P 500’s 21% gain. Mid-September marks the beginning of a fresh rally in riskier assets like stocks and move higher in inflation expectation. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF(XLE) is up 53% since then, with the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF(XLI) exhibiting a move in-line with the broader index. Four of the top 10 holdings in the industrials fund—Honeywell(HON),Raytheon Technologies(RTX),Lockheed Martin(LMT) and 3M(MMM)—have heavy exposure to the rather defensive areas of aerospace and defense and medical products, which may weigh on the fund’s performance. But the highly cyclical industrial stock Boeing(BA), for example, has beaten the S&P 500 by nearly twice as much since mid-September.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，SPDR S&P Bank ETF（股票代码：KBE）自9月23日以来已上涨71%，超过了标准普尔500指数21%的涨幅。9月中旬标志着股票等风险资产新一轮反弹的开始，通胀预期也走高。此后，能源精选行业SPDR ETF(XLE)上涨了53%，工业精选行业SPDR ETF(XLI)的走势与更广泛的指数一致。该工业基金前10名持股中的4只——Honeywell(HON)、Raytheon Technologies(RTX)、Lockheed Martin(LMT)和3 M（3M）——大量投资于航空航天、国防和医疗领域的防御性产品，这可能会影响基金的业绩。但例如，自9月中旬以来，高度周期性的工业股波音(BA)的股价已比标普500高出近两倍。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect stocks in all of these sectors to see continued earnings momentum through 2022. But industrials and energy stocks trade at substantial valuation premiums to the S&P 500, according to FactSet data.Smaller capitalization value stocks aren’t trading at those exorbitant valuations and might be a better way to play the inflation trade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，到2022年，所有这些行业的股票都将继续保持盈利势头。但FactSet数据显示，工业股和能源股的估值较标普500大幅溢价。小市值股票的交易估值并不高，可能是进行通胀交易的更好方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If Inflation Is Coming, These Stocks Will Benefit the Most<blockquote>如果通胀来临，这些股票将受益最大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf Inflation Is Coming, These Stocks Will Benefit the Most<blockquote>如果通胀来临，这些股票将受益最大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 11:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors have been eyeing the threat of rising inflation.Fortunately, there’s a playbook for higher inflation.</p><p><blockquote>投资者一直在关注通胀上升的威胁。幸运的是，有一个应对更高通胀的剧本。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation expectations have risen robustly in the past several months. According to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, investors currently expect inflation to run at above 2% for the next 10 years. With inflation expectations up, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 1.37% from 0.67% since Sept. 23, the beginning of a rally in riskier assets that benefit from a strengthening economy.Expectations for trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulusand further economic reopening spurredby the vaccine rolloutare driving the market movements.</p><p><blockquote>过去几个月，通胀预期强劲上升。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，投资者目前预计未来10年通胀率将在2%以上运行。随着通胀预期的上升，10年期国债收益率从9月23日的0.67%升至1.37%，这是受益于经济走强的风险资产的反弹。疫苗推出刺激经济的数万亿美元财政刺激和进一步经济重新开放的预期推动了市场的走势。</blockquote></p><p> The higher inflation forecast is causing some anxiety for stock investors, though.Momentary spikes in long-term Treasury yields pressure equity valuations A higher risk-free rate of return makes stocks less attractive. But inflation often reflects strong economic demand, which provides a major boost to near-term earnings.</p><p><blockquote>不过，较高的通胀预测给股票投资者带来了一些焦虑。长期国债收益率的短暂飙升给股票估值带来压力较高的无风险回报率降低了股票的吸引力。但通胀往往反映了强劲的经济需求，这对近期收益有重大提振。</blockquote></p><p> If the economy begins a fresh expansion, these dynamics favor cyclical and more economically-sensitive stocks. Financials, energy and industrial sectors would benefit the most. For banks, loans are more profitable when long-term rates are higher. Demand for oil and other energy sources increases during expansionary times because manufacturers and consumers consumer more during these times. Industrials typically increase production to supply projects tied to business and consumer spending during times of expansion.</p><p><blockquote>如果经济开始新的扩张，这些动态有利于周期性和对经济更敏感的股票。金融、能源和工业部门将受益最大。对于银行来说，当长期利率较高时，贷款利润更高。在扩张时期，对石油和其他能源的需求会增加，因为制造商和消费者在这些时期消费更多。在扩张时期，工业通常会增加产量，以供应与企业和消费者支出相关的项目。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from Evercore strategists, the financial sector sees the highest degree of outperformance against the S&P 500 when long-term yields rise. The energy sector is the second-best performer and industrials are the third-best. The sectors least correlated with higher interest rates are defensive ones, or those which have revenues and earnings that are less influenced by economic demand. Utilities and consumer staples, for example, don’t perform as well during inflationary times.</p><p><blockquote>根据Evercore策略师的数据，当长期收益率上升时，金融业相对于标普500的表现最高。能源行业表现第二好，工业行业表现第三好。与高利率相关性最小的行业是防御性行业，或者那些收入和收益受经济需求影响较小的行业。例如，公用事业和必需消费品在通货膨胀时期表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF(ticker: KBE) is up 71% since Sept. 23, trouncing the S&P 500’s 21% gain. Mid-September marks the beginning of a fresh rally in riskier assets like stocks and move higher in inflation expectation. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF(XLE) is up 53% since then, with the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF(XLI) exhibiting a move in-line with the broader index. Four of the top 10 holdings in the industrials fund—Honeywell(HON),Raytheon Technologies(RTX),Lockheed Martin(LMT) and 3M(MMM)—have heavy exposure to the rather defensive areas of aerospace and defense and medical products, which may weigh on the fund’s performance. But the highly cyclical industrial stock Boeing(BA), for example, has beaten the S&P 500 by nearly twice as much since mid-September.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，SPDR S&P Bank ETF（股票代码：KBE）自9月23日以来已上涨71%，超过了标准普尔500指数21%的涨幅。9月中旬标志着股票等风险资产新一轮反弹的开始，通胀预期也走高。此后，能源精选行业SPDR ETF(XLE)上涨了53%，工业精选行业SPDR ETF(XLI)的走势与更广泛的指数一致。该工业基金前10名持股中的4只——Honeywell(HON)、Raytheon Technologies(RTX)、Lockheed Martin(LMT)和3 M（3M）——大量投资于航空航天、国防和医疗领域的防御性产品，这可能会影响基金的业绩。但例如，自9月中旬以来，高度周期性的工业股波音(BA)的股价已比标普500高出近两倍。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect stocks in all of these sectors to see continued earnings momentum through 2022. But industrials and energy stocks trade at substantial valuation premiums to the S&P 500, according to FactSet data.Smaller capitalization value stocks aren’t trading at those exorbitant valuations and might be a better way to play the inflation trade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，到2022年，所有这些行业的股票都将继续保持盈利势头。但FactSet数据显示，工业股和能源股的估值较标普500大幅溢价。小市值股票的交易估值并不高，可能是进行通胀交易的更好方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/if-inflation-is-coming-these-stocks-will-benefit-the-most-51613997007?siteid=yhoof2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XLI":"工业指数ETF-SPDR","BA":"波音","RTX":"雷神技术公司","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LMT":"洛克希德马丁",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MMM":"3M"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/if-inflation-is-coming-these-stocks-will-benefit-the-most-51613997007?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105400565","content_text":"Investors have been eyeing the threat of rising inflation.Fortunately, there’s a playbook for higher inflation.\nInflation expectations have risen robustly in the past several months. According to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, investors currently expect inflation to run at above 2% for the next 10 years. With inflation expectations up, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 1.37% from 0.67% since Sept. 23, the beginning of a rally in riskier assets that benefit from a strengthening economy.Expectations for trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulusand further economic reopening spurredby the vaccine rolloutare driving the market movements.\nThe higher inflation forecast is causing some anxiety for stock investors, though.Momentary spikes in long-term Treasury yields pressure equity valuations A higher risk-free rate of return makes stocks less attractive. But inflation often reflects strong economic demand, which provides a major boost to near-term earnings.\nIf the economy begins a fresh expansion, these dynamics favor cyclical and more economically-sensitive stocks. Financials, energy and industrial sectors would benefit the most. For banks, loans are more profitable when long-term rates are higher. Demand for oil and other energy sources increases during expansionary times because manufacturers and consumers consumer more during these times. Industrials typically increase production to supply projects tied to business and consumer spending during times of expansion.\nAccording to data from Evercore strategists, the financial sector sees the highest degree of outperformance against the S&P 500 when long-term yields rise. The energy sector is the second-best performer and industrials are the third-best. The sectors least correlated with higher interest rates are defensive ones, or those which have revenues and earnings that are less influenced by economic demand. Utilities and consumer staples, for example, don’t perform as well during inflationary times.\nIndeed, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF(ticker: KBE) is up 71% since Sept. 23, trouncing the S&P 500’s 21% gain. Mid-September marks the beginning of a fresh rally in riskier assets like stocks and move higher in inflation expectation. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF(XLE) is up 53% since then, with the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF(XLI) exhibiting a move in-line with the broader index. Four of the top 10 holdings in the industrials fund—Honeywell(HON),Raytheon Technologies(RTX),Lockheed Martin(LMT) and 3M(MMM)—have heavy exposure to the rather defensive areas of aerospace and defense and medical products, which may weigh on the fund’s performance. But the highly cyclical industrial stock Boeing(BA), for example, has beaten the S&P 500 by nearly twice as much since mid-September.\nAnalysts expect stocks in all of these sectors to see continued earnings momentum through 2022. But industrials and energy stocks trade at substantial valuation premiums to the S&P 500, according to FactSet data.Smaller capitalization value stocks aren’t trading at those exorbitant valuations and might be a better way to play the inflation trade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MMM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"XLE":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"RTX":0.9,"XLI":0.9,"BA":0.9,"KBE":0.9,"LMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":563,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/369277684"}
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