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2021-04-16
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Yields are sliding but U.S. economic indicators are improving. Here’s what’s driving the bond market ‘datapathy.’<blockquote>收益率下滑，但美国经济指标正在改善。这就是推动债券市场“数据病态”的原因。</blockquote>
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Here’s what’s driving the bond market ‘datapathy.’<blockquote>收益率下滑，但美国经济指标正在改善。这就是推动债券市场“数据病态”的原因。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119515404","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Does the U.S. bond market have a case of “datapathy”?\nThat’s the question on the lips of bond trader","content":"<p>Does the U.S. bond market have a case of “datapathy”?</p><p><blockquote>美债市场有“数据病”的案例吗？</blockquote></p><p> That’s the question on the lips of bond traders who have seen Treasury yields slide despite a parade of impressive economic data since last week, highlighting the reflationary forces that in the first quarter struck fear in the hearts of bond bulls.</p><p><blockquote>这是债券交易员挂在嘴边的问题，尽管自上周以来公布了一系列令人印象深刻的经济数据，但他们看到美国国债收益率下滑，凸显了第一季度令债券多头感到恐惧的通货再膨胀力量。</blockquote></p><p> Yet nearly a million jobs added to the labor market in March and a multidecade high in a U.S. manufacturing activity index wasn’t enough to reignite the bond-market selloff this month. And those questions came to the fore again after U.S. retail sales rose nearly 10% in March,the second largest increase on record, aided by the federal pandemic relief checks sent to Americans.</p><p><blockquote>然而，3月份劳动力市场增加了近100万个就业岗位，美国制造业活动指数创数十年来新高，这不足以重新引发本月债券市场的抛售。在向美国人发放的联邦疫情救济支票的帮助下，美国3月份零售额增长近10%，创有记录以来第二大增幅，这些问题再次凸显出来。</blockquote></p><p> Instead of rising in response to evidence of the improving economic trajectory, the 10-year Treasury yield fell around 8 basis points to 1.55% on Thursday, pushing below the 1.60% level that had marked the floor for the benchmark maturity since mid-March.</p><p><blockquote>周四，10年期国债收益率非但没有因经济轨迹改善的证据而上涨，反而下跌约8个基点至1.55%，跌破1.60%的水平，该水平标志着自3月中旬以来基准期限的下限。</blockquote></p><p> The drop in 10-year Treasury yields is “very surprising,” according to Jeff Schulze, an investment strategist with ClearBridge Investments. “It’s not the reaction that I would have expected given the huge beat in retail sales” and the drop in jobless claims, he said in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge Investments投资策略师杰夫·舒尔茨(Jeff Schulze)表示，10年期国债收益率的下降“非常令人惊讶”。他在接受采访时表示，“鉴于零售额大幅增长”和初请失业金人数下降，这不是我预期的反应。</blockquote></p><p> Initial claims for unemployment benefits sank by 193,000 in early April to a fresh pandemic low.</p><p><blockquote>4月初，首次申请失业救济人数减少了193,000人，创下疫情新低。</blockquote></p><p> Schulze chalked it up to a “‘sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction wherein investors had been anticipating a strong retail-sales number and had already sold or shorted bonds and were now buying them back again because they believe they’ve seen “peak economic momentum.”</p><p><blockquote>舒尔茨将其归因于“卖出谣言，买入新闻”的反应，其中投资者一直预期零售销售数据强劲，并且已经出售或做空债券，现在又回购债券，因为他们相信他们已经看到了“经济势头达到顶峰”。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts were also ready to discount the March retail sales data in part because the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory was likely to be driven by how fast the economy was expected to hit full employment, and not the retail numbers that were artificially boosted by the trillions of government stimulus funds coursing through businesses and households.</p><p><blockquote>分析师还准备对3月份零售销售数据进行折扣，部分原因是美联储的政策轨迹可能是由经济预计实现充分就业的速度驱动的，而不是由数万亿美元人为提振的零售数据。政府刺激资金流向企业和家庭。</blockquote></p><p> “Discounting the data makes a ton of sense,” said Tom Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory. “That’s why rates are rallying. It’s just noninformation.”</p><p><blockquote>布朗咨询公司固定收益主管汤姆·格拉夫表示：“对数据进行贴现非常有意义。”“这就是利率上涨的原因。这只是非信息。”</blockquote></p><p> Others suggested the drivers of the bond-market rally had little to do with investors’ expectations over economic growth, but rather behind-the-scenes moves among the likes of fast-moving hedge funds and more deliberate Japanese pension funds.</p><p><blockquote>其他人表示，债券市场上涨的驱动因素与投资者对经济增长的预期关系不大，而是快速行动的对冲基金和更谨慎的日本养老基金等幕后举措。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts had noted Japanese investors were attracted to the current level of yields on U.S. government bonds, even after taking into account the cost of hedging for currency fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>分析师曾指出，即使考虑到对冲货币波动的成本，日本投资者仍被美国政府债券目前的收益率水平所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Japanese buyers snapped up $15.6 billion in overseas notes and bonds during the week of April 9, up from the previous week’s $3.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，日本买家在4月9日当周抢购了156亿美元的海外票据和债券，高于前一周的34亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “There are some large pockets of money in Asia that are moving in a big way,” said Graff.</p><p><blockquote>格拉夫表示：“亚洲有一些大笔资金正在大规模流动。”</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Nomura strategists noted shorter-term traders in bonds such as commodity trading advisors and hedge funds were moving out of their short positions on Treasurys.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，野村证券策略师指出，大宗商品交易顾问和对冲基金等短期债券交易员正在退出国债空头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> When investors cover their short positions and buy bonds, they can end up fueling the rally in government bonds beyond what economic fundamentals might dictate.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者回补空头头寸并购买债券时，他们最终可能会推动政府债券的上涨，超出经济基本面可能决定的范围。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Yields are sliding but U.S. economic indicators are improving. Here’s what’s driving the bond market ‘datapathy.’<blockquote>收益率下滑，但美国经济指标正在改善。这就是推动债券市场“数据病态”的原因。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYields are sliding but U.S. economic indicators are improving. Here’s what’s driving the bond market ‘datapathy.’<blockquote>收益率下滑，但美国经济指标正在改善。这就是推动债券市场“数据病态”的原因。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Does the U.S. bond market have a case of “datapathy”?</p><p><blockquote>美债市场有“数据病”的案例吗？</blockquote></p><p> That’s the question on the lips of bond traders who have seen Treasury yields slide despite a parade of impressive economic data since last week, highlighting the reflationary forces that in the first quarter struck fear in the hearts of bond bulls.</p><p><blockquote>这是债券交易员挂在嘴边的问题，尽管自上周以来公布了一系列令人印象深刻的经济数据，但他们看到美国国债收益率下滑，凸显了第一季度令债券多头感到恐惧的通货再膨胀力量。</blockquote></p><p> Yet nearly a million jobs added to the labor market in March and a multidecade high in a U.S. manufacturing activity index wasn’t enough to reignite the bond-market selloff this month. And those questions came to the fore again after U.S. retail sales rose nearly 10% in March,the second largest increase on record, aided by the federal pandemic relief checks sent to Americans.</p><p><blockquote>然而，3月份劳动力市场增加了近100万个就业岗位，美国制造业活动指数创数十年来新高，这不足以重新引发本月债券市场的抛售。在向美国人发放的联邦疫情救济支票的帮助下，美国3月份零售额增长近10%，创有记录以来第二大增幅，这些问题再次凸显出来。</blockquote></p><p> Instead of rising in response to evidence of the improving economic trajectory, the 10-year Treasury yield fell around 8 basis points to 1.55% on Thursday, pushing below the 1.60% level that had marked the floor for the benchmark maturity since mid-March.</p><p><blockquote>周四，10年期国债收益率非但没有因经济轨迹改善的证据而上涨，反而下跌约8个基点至1.55%，跌破1.60%的水平，该水平标志着自3月中旬以来基准期限的下限。</blockquote></p><p> The drop in 10-year Treasury yields is “very surprising,” according to Jeff Schulze, an investment strategist with ClearBridge Investments. “It’s not the reaction that I would have expected given the huge beat in retail sales” and the drop in jobless claims, he said in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge Investments投资策略师杰夫·舒尔茨(Jeff Schulze)表示，10年期国债收益率的下降“非常令人惊讶”。他在接受采访时表示，“鉴于零售额大幅增长”和初请失业金人数下降，这不是我预期的反应。</blockquote></p><p> Initial claims for unemployment benefits sank by 193,000 in early April to a fresh pandemic low.</p><p><blockquote>4月初，首次申请失业救济人数减少了193,000人，创下疫情新低。</blockquote></p><p> Schulze chalked it up to a “‘sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction wherein investors had been anticipating a strong retail-sales number and had already sold or shorted bonds and were now buying them back again because they believe they’ve seen “peak economic momentum.”</p><p><blockquote>舒尔茨将其归因于“卖出谣言，买入新闻”的反应，其中投资者一直预期零售销售数据强劲，并且已经出售或做空债券，现在又回购债券，因为他们相信他们已经看到了“经济势头达到顶峰”。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts were also ready to discount the March retail sales data in part because the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory was likely to be driven by how fast the economy was expected to hit full employment, and not the retail numbers that were artificially boosted by the trillions of government stimulus funds coursing through businesses and households.</p><p><blockquote>分析师还准备对3月份零售销售数据进行折扣，部分原因是美联储的政策轨迹可能是由经济预计实现充分就业的速度驱动的，而不是由数万亿美元人为提振的零售数据。政府刺激资金流向企业和家庭。</blockquote></p><p> “Discounting the data makes a ton of sense,” said Tom Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory. “That’s why rates are rallying. It’s just noninformation.”</p><p><blockquote>布朗咨询公司固定收益主管汤姆·格拉夫表示：“对数据进行贴现非常有意义。”“这就是利率上涨的原因。这只是非信息。”</blockquote></p><p> Others suggested the drivers of the bond-market rally had little to do with investors’ expectations over economic growth, but rather behind-the-scenes moves among the likes of fast-moving hedge funds and more deliberate Japanese pension funds.</p><p><blockquote>其他人表示，债券市场上涨的驱动因素与投资者对经济增长的预期关系不大，而是快速行动的对冲基金和更谨慎的日本养老基金等幕后举措。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts had noted Japanese investors were attracted to the current level of yields on U.S. government bonds, even after taking into account the cost of hedging for currency fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>分析师曾指出，即使考虑到对冲货币波动的成本，日本投资者仍被美国政府债券目前的收益率水平所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Japanese buyers snapped up $15.6 billion in overseas notes and bonds during the week of April 9, up from the previous week’s $3.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，日本买家在4月9日当周抢购了156亿美元的海外票据和债券，高于前一周的34亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “There are some large pockets of money in Asia that are moving in a big way,” said Graff.</p><p><blockquote>格拉夫表示：“亚洲有一些大笔资金正在大规模流动。”</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Nomura strategists noted shorter-term traders in bonds such as commodity trading advisors and hedge funds were moving out of their short positions on Treasurys.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，野村证券策略师指出，大宗商品交易顾问和对冲基金等短期债券交易员正在退出国债空头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> When investors cover their short positions and buy bonds, they can end up fueling the rally in government bonds beyond what economic fundamentals might dictate.</p><p><blockquote>当投资者回补空头头寸并购买债券时，他们最终可能会推动政府债券的上涨，超出经济基本面可能决定的范围。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/yields-are-sliding-but-u-s-economic-indicators-are-improving-heres-whats-driving-the-bond-market-datapathy-11618513116?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/yields-are-sliding-but-u-s-economic-indicators-are-improving-heres-whats-driving-the-bond-market-datapathy-11618513116?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119515404","content_text":"Does the U.S. bond market have a case of “datapathy”?\nThat’s the question on the lips of bond traders who have seen Treasury yields slide despite a parade of impressive economic data since last week, highlighting the reflationary forces that in the first quarter struck fear in the hearts of bond bulls.\nYet nearly a million jobs added to the labor market in March and a multidecade high in a U.S. manufacturing activity index wasn’t enough to reignite the bond-market selloff this month. And those questions came to the fore again after U.S. retail sales rose nearly 10% in March,the second largest increase on record, aided by the federal pandemic relief checks sent to Americans.\nInstead of rising in response to evidence of the improving economic trajectory, the 10-year Treasury yield fell around 8 basis points to 1.55% on Thursday, pushing below the 1.60% level that had marked the floor for the benchmark maturity since mid-March.\nThe drop in 10-year Treasury yields is “very surprising,” according to Jeff Schulze, an investment strategist with ClearBridge Investments. “It’s not the reaction that I would have expected given the huge beat in retail sales” and the drop in jobless claims, he said in an interview.\nInitial claims for unemployment benefits sank by 193,000 in early April to a fresh pandemic low.\nSchulze chalked it up to a “‘sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction wherein investors had been anticipating a strong retail-sales number and had already sold or shorted bonds and were now buying them back again because they believe they’ve seen “peak economic momentum.”\nAnalysts were also ready to discount the March retail sales data in part because the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory was likely to be driven by how fast the economy was expected to hit full employment, and not the retail numbers that were artificially boosted by the trillions of government stimulus funds coursing through businesses and households.\n“Discounting the data makes a ton of sense,” said Tom Graff, head of fixed income at Brown Advisory. “That’s why rates are rallying. It’s just noninformation.”\nOthers suggested the drivers of the bond-market rally had little to do with investors’ expectations over economic growth, but rather behind-the-scenes moves among the likes of fast-moving hedge funds and more deliberate Japanese pension funds.\nAnalysts had noted Japanese investors were attracted to the current level of yields on U.S. government bonds, even after taking into account the cost of hedging for currency fluctuations.\nIndeed, Japanese buyers snapped up $15.6 billion in overseas notes and bonds during the week of April 9, up from the previous week’s $3.4 billion.\n“There are some large pockets of money in Asia that are moving in a big way,” said Graff.\nMeanwhile, Nomura strategists noted shorter-term traders in bonds such as commodity trading advisors and hedge funds were moving out of their short positions on Treasurys.\nWhen investors cover their short positions and buy bonds, they can end up fueling the rally in government bonds beyond what economic fundamentals might dictate.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZBmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/370061059"}
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