up_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":371747896,"tweetId":"371747896","gmtCreate":1618975658315,"gmtModify":1634289474860,"author":{"id":3578294070796563,"idStr":"3578294070796563","authorId":3578294070796563,"authorIdStr":"3578294070796563","name":"JPKS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6413e1760b9d15bff94ffb34fdc6026f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>up</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>up</body></html>","text":"up","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371747896","repostId":1184207591,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184207591","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618970427,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184207591?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lacalle: Why The US Recovery Is Not That Strong<blockquote>拉卡勒：为什么美国复苏没有那么强劲</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184207591","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The United States: Hardly A Recovery\nThere is anoverly optimistic consensus viewabout the speed and ","content":"The United States: Hardly A Recovery<blockquote>美国：几乎没有复苏</blockquote> There is anoverly optimistic consensus viewabout the speed and strength of the United States’ recovery that is contradicted by facts. It is true that the&nbsp;United States&nbsp;recovery is stronger than the European or Japanese one, but the macro data shows that the euphoric messages about aggregate GDP growth are wildly exaggerated.<blockquote>有一个过于乐观的共识观点关于与事实相矛盾的美国复苏速度和力度。的确，美国复苏比欧洲或日本更强劲，但宏观数据显示，有关GDP总量增长的乐观信息被严重夸大了。</blockquote> Of course, Gross Domestic Product is going to rise fast, with estimates of 6% for 2021. It would be alarming if it did not after a massive chain of stimuli of more than 12% of GDP in fiscal spending and $7 trillion in&nbsp;Federal Reserve balance&nbsp;sheet expansion. This is a combined stimulus that is almost three times larger than the 2008 crisis one, according to McKinsey.The question is, what is the quality of this recovery?<blockquote>当然，国内生产总值将快速增长，预计2021年将增长6%。如果在财政支出超过GDP的12%和7万亿美元的大规模刺激之后，它没有这样做，那将是令人震惊的。美联储余额纸张膨胀。麦肯锡表示，这一综合刺激措施几乎是2008年危机刺激措施的三倍。问题是，这种复苏的质量如何？</blockquote> The answer is: extremely poor.The United States real growth excluding the increase in debt will continue to be exceedingly small. No one can talk about a strong recovery when industry capacity utilization is at 74%, massively below the level of 80% at which it was before the pandemic. Furthermore, labor force participation rate stands at 61.5%, significantly below the pre-covid level and stalling after bouncing to 62% in September. Unemployment may be at 6%, but it is still almost twice as large as it was before the pandemic. Continuing jobless claims remain above 3.7 million in April. &nbsp;Weekly jobless claims remain above 500,000 and the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs — state and federal combined — for the week ending March 27 decreased by 1.2 million to 16.9 million.<blockquote>答案是：极差。不包括债务增加的美国实际增长将继续非常小。当行业产能利用率为74%（远低于大流行前80%的水平）时，没有人能谈论强劲复苏。此外，劳动力参与率为61.5%，明显低于covid之前的水平，并在9月份反弹至62%后陷入停滞。失业率可能为6%，但仍几乎是大流行前的两倍。4月份持续申请失业救济人数仍在370万人以上。截至3月27日当周，每周申请失业救济人数仍高于50万人，在所有计划（州和联邦计划）中申请福利的总人数减少了120万人，至1690万人。</blockquote> These figures must be put in the context of the unprecedented spending spree and the monetary stimulus.Yes, the recovery is better than the Eurozone’s thanks to a fast and efficient vaccination rollout and the dynamism of the United States business fabric, but the figures show that a relevant amount of the subsequent stimulus plans have simply perpetuated overcapacity, kept zombie firms that had financial issues before covid-19 alive and bloated the government structural deficit and mandatory spending.<blockquote>这些数字必须放在前所未有的支出热潮和货币刺激的背景下。是的，由于快速有效的疫苗接种推广和美国商业结构的活力，复苏比欧元区要好，但数据显示，相关数量的后续刺激计划只是使产能过剩永久化，让僵尸企业继续存在。在新冠肺炎之前就存在财务问题，并使政府结构性赤字和强制性支出膨胀。</blockquote> Would the United States economy had recovered as fast as it has without the deficit-spending stimulus plans? Maybe. I believe so because the entire recovery, both in markets and the economy, has been driven by the vaccine news and the process of inoculation. Most of the programs that have been implemented have had a small impact compared to the re-opening of the hospitality sector and the vaccinations. The entire economic crisis came from the lockdowns and the virus and the entire recovery is the re-opening and the vaccinations.<blockquote>如果没有赤字支出刺激计划，美国经济会像现在这样快速复苏吗？也许。我相信是这样，因为市场和经济的整个复苏都是由疫苗新闻和接种过程推动的。与酒店业的重新开放和疫苗接种相比，大多数已经实施的项目影响很小。整个经济危机来自封锁和病毒，整个复苏是重新开放和疫苗接种。</blockquote> My main concern is that this monster deficit and debt program has been set as the minimum for the next crisis.No one has analysed if the spending plans have been effective. In fact, in the eurozone no one seems to be concerned about the fact that countries that have spent between 20 to 30% of GDP in stimulus plans are now in stagnation. The mainstream message seems to be that if the spending plans have not worked it is because they were not large enough. Very few seem to be discussing the waste in public funding when the number one drivers of the recovery are the vaccine roll-out and the re-opening of the services sector.<blockquote>我主要担心的是，这个怪物赤字和债务计划已经被设定为下一场危机的最低限度。没有人分析支出计划是否有效。事实上，在欧元区，似乎没有人关心这样一个事实，即那些在刺激计划中支出占GDP 20%至30%的国家现在陷入停滞。主流信息似乎是，如果支出计划没有奏效，那是因为它们不够大。当复苏的头号驱动力是疫苗的推出和服务业的重新开放时，似乎很少有人在讨论公共资金的浪费。</blockquote> It seems that governments want to convince us that they have saved the world when the reality is that the misguided lockdowns were the cause of the economic debacle and lifting them is the main cause of the recovery. In the process, trillions have been squandered. It is dangerous to accept that government spending no matter how much and what for is the only solution and even more dangerous to believe that the shape of the recovery is only a function of the size of the stimulus package. The problem was the virus and the government-imposed lockdowns, the solution is the vaccine and the re-opening.The problem was caused by government’s lack of prevention and excess of interventionism and the solution is not more intervention.<blockquote>政府似乎想让我们相信他们拯救了世界，而现实是错误的封锁是经济崩溃的原因，解除封锁是复苏的主要原因。在这个过程中，数万亿美元被浪费了。认为政府支出，无论多少，出于什么目的，都是唯一的解决方案是危险的，认为复苏的形状只是刺激计划规模的函数更危险。问题是病毒和政府实施的封锁，解决方案是疫苗和重新开放。这个问题是由政府缺乏预防和过度干预造成的，解决办法不是更多的干预。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lacalle: Why The US Recovery Is Not That Strong<blockquote>拉卡勒：为什么美国复苏没有那么强劲</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLacalle: Why The US Recovery Is Not That Strong<blockquote>拉卡勒：为什么美国复苏没有那么强劲</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-04-21 10:00\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe United States: Hardly A Recovery<blockquote>美国：几乎没有复苏</blockquote> There is anoverly optimistic consensus viewabout the speed and strength of the United States’ recovery that is contradicted by facts. It is true that the&nbsp;United States&nbsp;recovery is stronger than the European or Japanese one, but the macro data shows that the euphoric messages about aggregate GDP growth are wildly exaggerated.<blockquote>有一个过于乐观的共识观点关于与事实相矛盾的美国复苏速度和力度。的确，美国复苏比欧洲或日本更强劲，但宏观数据显示，有关GDP总量增长的乐观信息被严重夸大了。</blockquote> Of course, Gross Domestic Product is going to rise fast, with estimates of 6% for 2021. It would be alarming if it did not after a massive chain of stimuli of more than 12% of GDP in fiscal spending and $7 trillion in&nbsp;Federal Reserve balance&nbsp;sheet expansion. This is a combined stimulus that is almost three times larger than the 2008 crisis one, according to McKinsey.The question is, what is the quality of this recovery?<blockquote>当然，国内生产总值将快速增长，预计2021年将增长6%。如果在财政支出超过GDP的12%和7万亿美元的大规模刺激之后，它没有这样做，那将是令人震惊的。美联储余额纸张膨胀。麦肯锡表示，这一综合刺激措施几乎是2008年危机刺激措施的三倍。问题是，这种复苏的质量如何？</blockquote> The answer is: extremely poor.The United States real growth excluding the increase in debt will continue to be exceedingly small. No one can talk about a strong recovery when industry capacity utilization is at 74%, massively below the level of 80% at which it was before the pandemic. Furthermore, labor force participation rate stands at 61.5%, significantly below the pre-covid level and stalling after bouncing to 62% in September. Unemployment may be at 6%, but it is still almost twice as large as it was before the pandemic. Continuing jobless claims remain above 3.7 million in April. &nbsp;Weekly jobless claims remain above 500,000 and the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs — state and federal combined — for the week ending March 27 decreased by 1.2 million to 16.9 million.<blockquote>答案是：极差。不包括债务增加的美国实际增长将继续非常小。当行业产能利用率为74%（远低于大流行前80%的水平）时，没有人能谈论强劲复苏。此外，劳动力参与率为61.5%，明显低于covid之前的水平，并在9月份反弹至62%后陷入停滞。失业率可能为6%，但仍几乎是大流行前的两倍。4月份持续申请失业救济人数仍在370万人以上。截至3月27日当周，每周申请失业救济人数仍高于50万人，在所有计划（州和联邦计划）中申请福利的总人数减少了120万人，至1690万人。</blockquote> These figures must be put in the context of the unprecedented spending spree and the monetary stimulus.Yes, the recovery is better than the Eurozone’s thanks to a fast and efficient vaccination rollout and the dynamism of the United States business fabric, but the figures show that a relevant amount of the subsequent stimulus plans have simply perpetuated overcapacity, kept zombie firms that had financial issues before covid-19 alive and bloated the government structural deficit and mandatory spending.<blockquote>这些数字必须放在前所未有的支出热潮和货币刺激的背景下。是的，由于快速有效的疫苗接种推广和美国商业结构的活力，复苏比欧元区要好，但数据显示，相关数量的后续刺激计划只是使产能过剩永久化，让僵尸企业继续存在。在新冠肺炎之前就存在财务问题，并使政府结构性赤字和强制性支出膨胀。</blockquote> Would the United States economy had recovered as fast as it has without the deficit-spending stimulus plans? Maybe. I believe so because the entire recovery, both in markets and the economy, has been driven by the vaccine news and the process of inoculation. Most of the programs that have been implemented have had a small impact compared to the re-opening of the hospitality sector and the vaccinations. The entire economic crisis came from the lockdowns and the virus and the entire recovery is the re-opening and the vaccinations.<blockquote>如果没有赤字支出刺激计划，美国经济会像现在这样快速复苏吗？也许。我相信是这样，因为市场和经济的整个复苏都是由疫苗新闻和接种过程推动的。与酒店业的重新开放和疫苗接种相比，大多数已经实施的项目影响很小。整个经济危机来自封锁和病毒，整个复苏是重新开放和疫苗接种。</blockquote> My main concern is that this monster deficit and debt program has been set as the minimum for the next crisis.No one has analysed if the spending plans have been effective. In fact, in the eurozone no one seems to be concerned about the fact that countries that have spent between 20 to 30% of GDP in stimulus plans are now in stagnation. The mainstream message seems to be that if the spending plans have not worked it is because they were not large enough. Very few seem to be discussing the waste in public funding when the number one drivers of the recovery are the vaccine roll-out and the re-opening of the services sector.<blockquote>我主要担心的是，这个怪物赤字和债务计划已经被设定为下一场危机的最低限度。没有人分析支出计划是否有效。事实上，在欧元区，似乎没有人关心这样一个事实，即那些在刺激计划中支出占GDP 20%至30%的国家现在陷入停滞。主流信息似乎是，如果支出计划没有奏效，那是因为它们不够大。当复苏的头号驱动力是疫苗的推出和服务业的重新开放时，似乎很少有人在讨论公共资金的浪费。</blockquote> It seems that governments want to convince us that they have saved the world when the reality is that the misguided lockdowns were the cause of the economic debacle and lifting them is the main cause of the recovery. In the process, trillions have been squandered. It is dangerous to accept that government spending no matter how much and what for is the only solution and even more dangerous to believe that the shape of the recovery is only a function of the size of the stimulus package. The problem was the virus and the government-imposed lockdowns, the solution is the vaccine and the re-opening.The problem was caused by government’s lack of prevention and excess of interventionism and the solution is not more intervention.<blockquote>政府似乎想让我们相信他们拯救了世界，而现实是错误的封锁是经济崩溃的原因，解除封锁是复苏的主要原因。在这个过程中，数万亿美元被浪费了。认为政府支出，无论多少，出于什么目的，都是唯一的解决方案是危险的，认为复苏的形状只是刺激计划规模的函数更危险。问题是病毒和政府实施的封锁，解决方案是疫苗和重新开放。这个问题是由政府缺乏预防和过度干预造成的，解决办法不是更多的干预。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/lacalle-why-us-recovery-not-strong?utm_source=feedburner&utm_meium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/lacalle-why-us-recovery-not-strong?utm_source=feedburner&utm_meium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184207591","content_text":"The United States: Hardly A Recovery\nThere is anoverly optimistic consensus viewabout the speed and strength of the United States’ recovery that is contradicted by facts. It is true that the United States recovery is stronger than the European or Japanese one, but the macro data shows that the euphoric messages about aggregate GDP growth are wildly exaggerated.\nOf course, Gross Domestic Product is going to rise fast, with estimates of 6% for 2021. It would be alarming if it did not after a massive chain of stimuli of more than 12% of GDP in fiscal spending and $7 trillion in Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion. This is a combined stimulus that is almost three times larger than the 2008 crisis one, according to McKinsey.The question is, what is the quality of this recovery?\nThe answer is: extremely poor.The United States real growth excluding the increase in debt will continue to be exceedingly small. No one can talk about a strong recovery when industry capacity utilization is at 74%, massively below the level of 80% at which it was before the pandemic. Furthermore, labor force participation rate stands at 61.5%, significantly below the pre-covid level and stalling after bouncing to 62% in September. Unemployment may be at 6%, but it is still almost twice as large as it was before the pandemic. Continuing jobless claims remain above 3.7 million in April.  Weekly jobless claims remain above 500,000 and the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs — state and federal combined — for the week ending March 27 decreased by 1.2 million to 16.9 million.\nThese figures must be put in the context of the unprecedented spending spree and the monetary stimulus.Yes, the recovery is better than the Eurozone’s thanks to a fast and efficient vaccination rollout and the dynamism of the United States business fabric, but the figures show that a relevant amount of the subsequent stimulus plans have simply perpetuated overcapacity, kept zombie firms that had financial issues before covid-19 alive and bloated the government structural deficit and mandatory spending.\nWould the United States economy had recovered as fast as it has without the deficit-spending stimulus plans? Maybe. I believe so because the entire recovery, both in markets and the economy, has been driven by the vaccine news and the process of inoculation. Most of the programs that have been implemented have had a small impact compared to the re-opening of the hospitality sector and the vaccinations. The entire economic crisis came from the lockdowns and the virus and the entire recovery is the re-opening and the vaccinations.\nMy main concern is that this monster deficit and debt program has been set as the minimum for the next crisis.No one has analysed if the spending plans have been effective. In fact, in the eurozone no one seems to be concerned about the fact that countries that have spent between 20 to 30% of GDP in stimulus plans are now in stagnation. The mainstream message seems to be that if the spending plans have not worked it is because they were not large enough. Very few seem to be discussing the waste in public funding when the number one drivers of the recovery are the vaccine roll-out and the re-opening of the services sector.\nIt seems that governments want to convince us that they have saved the world when the reality is that the misguided lockdowns were the cause of the economic debacle and lifting them is the main cause of the recovery. In the process, trillions have been squandered. It is dangerous to accept that government spending no matter how much and what for is the only solution and even more dangerous to believe that the shape of the recovery is only a function of the size of the stimulus package. The problem was the virus and the government-imposed lockdowns, the solution is the vaccine and the re-opening.The problem was caused by government’s lack of prevention and excess of interventionism and the solution is not more intervention.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/371747896"}