Ok_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":371778123,"tweetId":"371778123","gmtCreate":1618975962562,"gmtModify":1634289471343,"author":{"id":3574850099281549,"idStr":"3574850099281549","authorId":3574850099281549,"authorIdStr":"3574850099281549","name":"lukecyb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86b31ee917e065ab961b2a500b7103d6","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":25,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371778123","repostId":1121229202,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121229202","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618975336,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121229202?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"This Is Nuts!\" - Is BofA Right About A Market Drop To 3800?<blockquote>“这太疯狂了！”-美国银行关于市场跌至3800点的说法正确吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121229202","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Recently, Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian discussed why the market could drop to 3800. She disc","content":"Recently, Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian discussed why the market could drop to 3800. She discussed her thesis in her latest strategy note titled “Five Reasons To Curb Your Enthusiasm.”<blockquote>最近，美国银行的Savita Subramanian讨论了为什么市场可能跌至3800点。她在最新的战略报告中讨论了她的论文，题为“抑制你热情的五个理由。”</blockquote> This analysis is interesting, particularly when analysts are rushing to upgrade both economic and earnings estimates.<blockquote>这种分析很有趣，尤其是当分析师急于上调经济和盈利预期时。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06d11b2d0fdfcb9b5674310e699b3219\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"137\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">More importantly, investors are incredibly long-biased in portfolios, with equity allocations reaching some of the highest levels in history.<blockquote>更重要的是，投资者在投资组合中非常偏向多头，股票配置达到了历史上的最高水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676c930e0ebb10e74c4fc3212ac06c24\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What&nbsp;Subramanian questions, and something we have asked previously, is all the&nbsp;“good news”&nbsp;already&nbsp;“priced in?”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚的问题，以及我们之前问过的问题，都是“好消息”已经“定价？”</blockquote> “Amid increasingly euphoric sentiment, lofty valuations, and peak stimulus, we continue to believe the market has overly priced in the good news. &nbsp;We remain bullish the economy but not the S&amp;P 500. Our technical model, 12-month Price Momentum, has recently turned bearish amid extreme returns over the past year.” <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26a66b7d8fcc832e44e2f5dd34bbcc7e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"150\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With investors&nbsp;“all in,”&nbsp;we suspect a correction is more likely than not.<blockquote>“在日益乐观的情绪、高估值和刺激达到顶峰的情况下，我们仍然认为市场对好消息的定价过高。我们仍然看好经济但不是标普500。我们的技术模型“12个月价格动量”最近在过去一年的极端回报中转为看跌。”与投资者“全押。”我们怀疑修正的可能性更大。</blockquote> Technical Deviations<blockquote>技术偏差</blockquote> While BofA only expects a 10% correction, as shown, there is a risk of a deeper reversion.<blockquote>虽然美国银行预计仅会出现10%的回调，但如图所示，存在更深逆转的风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c6d7d25315cada79be9b888e17a1b7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A correction back to 3800 would only revert prices to mid-2020. As shown, over the last 5-years, corrections have ranged from roughly -10% to -33%. Notably, these corrections usually have reverted the index either to the 200-dma or beyond.<blockquote>回调至3800点只会使价格恢复到2020年中期。如图所示，在过去5年中，修正幅度约为-10%至-33%。值得注意的是，这些修正通常会使指数恢复到200日均线或更高。</blockquote> Given the magnitude of the market’s current deviation from the 200-dma, a correction will likely surpass 3800. A retest of the 200-dma seems most probable.<blockquote>鉴于市场目前偏离200日均线的幅度，回调可能会超过3800点。重新测试200日均线似乎是最有可能的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/287b2f0ff889d32618aee12380da7995\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Furthermore, the entire market(small, mid, and large-capitalization companies)&nbsp;have all risen sharply in the liquidity-fueled advance from the March 2020 lows. Such provides plenty of fuel for a more significant correction if selling begins in earnest.<blockquote>再者，整个市场（小型、中型和大型公司）均在流动性推动下从2020年3月低点大幅上涨。如果抛售真正开始，这将为更大幅度的调整提供充足的燃料。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374c24f63bfc459eaf1de1f53b0c1617\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The 200-dma remains the lower boundary for corrections over the past 5-years. That level helps define the parameters of a retracement.As shown below, using the October lows as a starting point for the current rally, a 38.2% retracement aligns mostly with BofA’s prediction.<blockquote>200日均线仍然是过去5年修正的下限。该水平有助于定义回撤的参数。如下图所示，以10月份低点作为当前反弹的起点，38.2%的回撤位与美国银行的预测基本一致。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca020ac4bf69dee3737ff792d980910\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, a 50% retracement seems more logical as it aligns with the previous bottoms in both February and March. But a 61.8% retracement also aligns with the 200-dma. As such, we can determine that a correction could range from:<blockquote>然而，50%的回撤似乎更合乎逻辑，因为它与2月和3月的底部一致。但61.8%的回撤位也与200日均线一致。因此，我们可以确定修正范围为：</blockquote> <ul> <li>38.2% = 8.3% Decline<blockquote><ul><li>38.2%=8.3%下降</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>50.0% = 10.89% Decline<blockquote><li>50.0%=10.89%下降</li></blockquote></li> <li>61.8% = 13.46% Decline<blockquote><li>61.8%=下降13.46%</li></blockquote></li> </ul> While the mainstream media loathes the discussion of a correction, corrections of this magnitude are a healthy process of reverting market excesses. Furthermore, corrections of this magnitude are well within the confines of drawdowns seen over the last 5-years of the market’s advance.<blockquote>虽然主流媒体讨厌讨论调整，但这种规模的调整是恢复市场过度行为的健康过程。此外，这种幅度的调整完全在过去5年市场上涨过程中出现的回撤范围内。</blockquote> Fundamentals Require A Lot More<blockquote>基本面需要更多</blockquote> As discussed in&nbsp;“Earnings Optimism Explodes,”&nbsp;the market has run well ahead of fundamentals.<blockquote>如中所讨论的“盈利乐观情绪爆发，”市场的运行远远领先于基本面。</blockquote> “Here is the problem for investors currently. Given analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, such leaves little room for disappointment. As shown, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&amp;P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.” <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6643321eb99b8fea1646a972c728efa\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"360\"><blockquote>“这就是投资者目前面临的问题。鉴于分析师的假设总是很高，而且市场的估值也更极端，因此失望的空间很小。如图所示，使用分析师2020年4700点的目标价假设和当前的盈利预期，标准普尔指数的盈利增长率为2.6倍。”</blockquote> As BofA noted, their&nbsp;“fair value”&nbsp;model also suggests that prices are near a peak with a downside target of 3635.&nbsp;(Based on BofA’s 2022 cyclically-adjusted earnings forecast of $173 and its equity risk premium (ERP) forecast of 425bp by year-end (vs. 398bp today.)<blockquote>正如美国银行指出的，他们的“公允价值”模型还表明，价格接近峰值，下行目标为3635。（基于美国银行2022年经周期调整的盈利预测为173美元，以及年底股票风险溢价（ERP）预测为425个基点（目前为398个基点。）</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a7c30152b70ba65189ccb336cdd370e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"214\"><blockquote></blockquote> Longer-term valuation metrics are all entirely distorted and suggests markets a likely close to a long-term peak than not. As&nbsp;Michael Lebowitz noted recently, the four major valuation indicators are simultaneously at levels offering near-zero returns over the next decade.<blockquote>长期估值指标都完全扭曲，表明市场可能接近长期峰值。作为Michael Lebowitz最近指出，四大估值指标同时处于未来十年回报率接近于零的水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790430d85ff1ae00ff0ff2e7fedc37b1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"315\"><blockquote></blockquote> This Is Nuts<blockquote>这太疯狂了</blockquote> On many levels, the current exuberance is&nbsp;“nutty.”&nbsp;Our&nbsp;“Fear/Greed Allocation”&nbsp;gauge, which measures investor’s equity exposure, shows the same. With the index pushing 100, a historical rarity, such precedes market corrections.<blockquote>在许多层面上，当前的繁荣是“疯子。”我们的“恐惧/贪婪分配”衡量投资者股票敞口的gauge也显示了同样的情况。随着指数突破100点（历史罕见），这是市场调整之前的情况。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2786933409d10ec8401a859cc5039962\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\"><blockquote></blockquote> There are few points in history where the market was this significantly deviated, extended, overbought, and overly bullish. Without exception, the market corrected. Sometimes it was just a 10-20% decline. However, sometimes it is a lot more.<blockquote>历史上很少有市场如此显著偏离、延伸、超买和过度看涨的时候。市场无一例外地回调。有时只是下降10-20%。然而，有时它要多得多。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94303def553720b6876fea635f4790b4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"451\"><blockquote></blockquote> While prices can certainly seem to defy the law of gravity in the short-term, the subsequent reversion from extremes&nbsp;has repeatedly led to catastrophic losses for investors who disregard the risk.<blockquote>虽然价格在短期内肯定会违背万有引力定律，但随后从极端情况的回归多次给无视风险的投资者带来灾难性损失。</blockquote> There are substantial reasons to be pessimistic about the markets longer-term. Economic growth, excessive monetary interventions, earnings, valuations, etc., all suggest that future returns will be substantially lower than those seen over the last decade.&nbsp;Bullish exuberance has erased the memories of the previous two major bear markets and replaced it with&nbsp;“hope”&nbsp;that somehow,&nbsp;“this time will be different.”<blockquote>有充分的理由对市场长期持悲观态度。和经济增长、过度货币干预、收益、估值等。，都表明未来的回报将大大低于过去十年。看涨热潮抹去了前两次大熊市的记忆，取而代之的是“希望”不知何故，“这次会不一样。”</blockquote> Maybe it will be.<blockquote>也许会的。</blockquote> Probably, it won’t be.<blockquote>很可能，不会。</blockquote> Starting To Take Profits<blockquote>开始获利了结</blockquote> The problem for the majority of investors is the inability to predict whether the subsequent correction will be just a&nbsp;“correction”&nbsp;within an ongoing bull market advance or something materially worse.&nbsp;Unfortunately, by the time most investors figure it out – it is generally far too late to do anything meaningful about it.<blockquote>大多数投资者面临的问题是无法预测随后的调整是否只是“更正”在持续的牛市上涨或更糟糕的情况下。不幸的是，当大多数投资者弄清楚这一点时，通常已经太晚了，无法采取任何有意义的行动。</blockquote> Yesterday, we started selling and taking profits, which provides us three benefits for the future.<blockquote>昨天，我们开始卖出并获利了结，这为我们未来提供了三个好处。</blockquote> <ol> <li>Less equity risk, and higher cash levels, reduce portfolio volatility and allows us to navigate a correction while protecting investment capital.<blockquote><ol><li>较低的股票风险和较高的现金水平降低了投资组合的波动性，使我们能够在保护投资资本的同时应对调整。</li></ol></blockquote></li> <li>It gives us capital to reinvest back into positions we currently own at better prices; or,<blockquote><li>它让我们有资本以更好的价格再投资回我们目前持有的头寸；或者，</li></blockquote></li> <li>Buy new positions which have corrected in price.<blockquote><li>买入价格已经调整的新头寸。</li></blockquote></li> </ol> While it is entirely true that&nbsp;“you can not time the market,”you can do some analysis and make deliberate changes to avoid problems.<blockquote>虽然这是完全正确的“你不能把握市场时机。”你可以做一些分析，故意改变，以避免问题。</blockquote> As discussed previously, “risk happens fast.”<blockquote>如前所述，“风险发生得很快。”</blockquote> It is essential not to react emotionally to a sell-off.&nbsp;Instead, fall back on your investment discipline and strategy.Importantly,&nbsp;keep your portfolio management process as simplistic as possible.<blockquote>重要的是不要对抛售做出情绪化的反应。相反，依靠你的投资纪律和策略。重要的是，让你的投资组合管理过程尽可能简单。</blockquote> <ol> <li>Trim Winning Positions&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)</li> <li>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.If they don’t rally with the market during this recent rally,&nbsp; they will decline more when the market sells off again.</li> <li>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up&nbsp;to new levels.</li> <li>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.</li> </ol> This is just how we are approaching it.<blockquote><ol><li>修剪获胜位置回到他们最初的投资组合权重。（即止盈）</li><li>卖出那些不起作用的头寸。如果他们在最近的反弹中没有与市场一起反弹，当市场再次抛售时，他们将下跌更多。</li><li>向上移动跟踪止损达到新的水平。</li><li>根据您的风险承受能力检查您的投资组合分配。如果您在市场周期的这个阶段对股票进行了积极的配置，您可能需要尝试回忆一下您在2008年的感受。提高现金水平，并相应增加固定收益，以减少相对市场敞口。</li></ol>这就是我们对待它的方式。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"This Is Nuts!\" - Is BofA Right About A Market Drop To 3800?<blockquote>“这太疯狂了！”-美国银行关于市场跌至3800点的说法正确吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"This Is Nuts!\" - Is BofA Right About A Market Drop To 3800?<blockquote>“这太疯狂了！”-美国银行关于市场跌至3800点的说法正确吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-04-21 11:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nRecently, Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian discussed why the market could drop to 3800. She discussed her thesis in her latest strategy note titled “Five Reasons To Curb Your Enthusiasm.”<blockquote>最近，美国银行的Savita Subramanian讨论了为什么市场可能跌至3800点。她在最新的战略报告中讨论了她的论文，题为“抑制你热情的五个理由。”</blockquote> This analysis is interesting, particularly when analysts are rushing to upgrade both economic and earnings estimates.<blockquote>这种分析很有趣，尤其是当分析师急于上调经济和盈利预期时。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06d11b2d0fdfcb9b5674310e699b3219\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"137\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">More importantly, investors are incredibly long-biased in portfolios, with equity allocations reaching some of the highest levels in history.<blockquote>更重要的是，投资者在投资组合中非常偏向多头，股票配置达到了历史上的最高水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676c930e0ebb10e74c4fc3212ac06c24\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What&nbsp;Subramanian questions, and something we have asked previously, is all the&nbsp;“good news”&nbsp;already&nbsp;“priced in?”<blockquote>萨勃拉曼尼亚的问题，以及我们之前问过的问题，都是“好消息”已经“定价？”</blockquote> “Amid increasingly euphoric sentiment, lofty valuations, and peak stimulus, we continue to believe the market has overly priced in the good news. &nbsp;We remain bullish the economy but not the S&amp;P 500. Our technical model, 12-month Price Momentum, has recently turned bearish amid extreme returns over the past year.” <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26a66b7d8fcc832e44e2f5dd34bbcc7e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"150\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With investors&nbsp;“all in,”&nbsp;we suspect a correction is more likely than not.<blockquote>“在日益乐观的情绪、高估值和刺激达到顶峰的情况下，我们仍然认为市场对好消息的定价过高。我们仍然看好经济但不是标普500。我们的技术模型“12个月价格动量”最近在过去一年的极端回报中转为看跌。”与投资者“全押。”我们怀疑修正的可能性更大。</blockquote> Technical Deviations<blockquote>技术偏差</blockquote> While BofA only expects a 10% correction, as shown, there is a risk of a deeper reversion.<blockquote>虽然美国银行预计仅会出现10%的回调，但如图所示，存在更深逆转的风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c6d7d25315cada79be9b888e17a1b7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A correction back to 3800 would only revert prices to mid-2020. As shown, over the last 5-years, corrections have ranged from roughly -10% to -33%. Notably, these corrections usually have reverted the index either to the 200-dma or beyond.<blockquote>回调至3800点只会使价格恢复到2020年中期。如图所示，在过去5年中，修正幅度约为-10%至-33%。值得注意的是，这些修正通常会使指数恢复到200日均线或更高。</blockquote> Given the magnitude of the market’s current deviation from the 200-dma, a correction will likely surpass 3800. A retest of the 200-dma seems most probable.<blockquote>鉴于市场目前偏离200日均线的幅度，回调可能会超过3800点。重新测试200日均线似乎是最有可能的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/287b2f0ff889d32618aee12380da7995\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Furthermore, the entire market(small, mid, and large-capitalization companies)&nbsp;have all risen sharply in the liquidity-fueled advance from the March 2020 lows. Such provides plenty of fuel for a more significant correction if selling begins in earnest.<blockquote>再者，整个市场（小型、中型和大型公司）均在流动性推动下从2020年3月低点大幅上涨。如果抛售真正开始，这将为更大幅度的调整提供充足的燃料。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/374c24f63bfc459eaf1de1f53b0c1617\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The 200-dma remains the lower boundary for corrections over the past 5-years. That level helps define the parameters of a retracement.As shown below, using the October lows as a starting point for the current rally, a 38.2% retracement aligns mostly with BofA’s prediction.<blockquote>200日均线仍然是过去5年修正的下限。该水平有助于定义回撤的参数。如下图所示，以10月份低点作为当前反弹的起点，38.2%的回撤位与美国银行的预测基本一致。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca020ac4bf69dee3737ff792d980910\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, a 50% retracement seems more logical as it aligns with the previous bottoms in both February and March. But a 61.8% retracement also aligns with the 200-dma. As such, we can determine that a correction could range from:<blockquote>然而，50%的回撤似乎更合乎逻辑，因为它与2月和3月的底部一致。但61.8%的回撤位也与200日均线一致。因此，我们可以确定修正范围为：</blockquote> <ul> <li>38.2% = 8.3% Decline<blockquote><ul><li>38.2%=8.3%下降</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>50.0% = 10.89% Decline<blockquote><li>50.0%=10.89%下降</li></blockquote></li> <li>61.8% = 13.46% Decline<blockquote><li>61.8%=下降13.46%</li></blockquote></li> </ul> While the mainstream media loathes the discussion of a correction, corrections of this magnitude are a healthy process of reverting market excesses. Furthermore, corrections of this magnitude are well within the confines of drawdowns seen over the last 5-years of the market’s advance.<blockquote>虽然主流媒体讨厌讨论调整，但这种规模的调整是恢复市场过度行为的健康过程。此外，这种幅度的调整完全在过去5年市场上涨过程中出现的回撤范围内。</blockquote> Fundamentals Require A Lot More<blockquote>基本面需要更多</blockquote> As discussed in&nbsp;“Earnings Optimism Explodes,”&nbsp;the market has run well ahead of fundamentals.<blockquote>如中所讨论的“盈利乐观情绪爆发，”市场的运行远远领先于基本面。</blockquote> “Here is the problem for investors currently. Given analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, such leaves little room for disappointment. As shown, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&amp;P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.” <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6643321eb99b8fea1646a972c728efa\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"360\"><blockquote>“这就是投资者目前面临的问题。鉴于分析师的假设总是很高，而且市场的估值也更极端，因此失望的空间很小。如图所示，使用分析师2020年4700点的目标价假设和当前的盈利预期，标准普尔指数的盈利增长率为2.6倍。”</blockquote> As BofA noted, their&nbsp;“fair value”&nbsp;model also suggests that prices are near a peak with a downside target of 3635.&nbsp;(Based on BofA’s 2022 cyclically-adjusted earnings forecast of $173 and its equity risk premium (ERP) forecast of 425bp by year-end (vs. 398bp today.)<blockquote>正如美国银行指出的，他们的“公允价值”模型还表明，价格接近峰值，下行目标为3635。（基于美国银行2022年经周期调整的盈利预测为173美元，以及年底股票风险溢价（ERP）预测为425个基点（目前为398个基点。）</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a7c30152b70ba65189ccb336cdd370e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"214\"><blockquote></blockquote> Longer-term valuation metrics are all entirely distorted and suggests markets a likely close to a long-term peak than not. As&nbsp;Michael Lebowitz noted recently, the four major valuation indicators are simultaneously at levels offering near-zero returns over the next decade.<blockquote>长期估值指标都完全扭曲，表明市场可能接近长期峰值。作为Michael Lebowitz最近指出，四大估值指标同时处于未来十年回报率接近于零的水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790430d85ff1ae00ff0ff2e7fedc37b1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"315\"><blockquote></blockquote> This Is Nuts<blockquote>这太疯狂了</blockquote> On many levels, the current exuberance is&nbsp;“nutty.”&nbsp;Our&nbsp;“Fear/Greed Allocation”&nbsp;gauge, which measures investor’s equity exposure, shows the same. With the index pushing 100, a historical rarity, such precedes market corrections.<blockquote>在许多层面上，当前的繁荣是“疯子。”我们的“恐惧/贪婪分配”衡量投资者股票敞口的gauge也显示了同样的情况。随着指数突破100点（历史罕见），这是市场调整之前的情况。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2786933409d10ec8401a859cc5039962\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"332\"><blockquote></blockquote> There are few points in history where the market was this significantly deviated, extended, overbought, and overly bullish. Without exception, the market corrected. Sometimes it was just a 10-20% decline. However, sometimes it is a lot more.<blockquote>历史上很少有市场如此显著偏离、延伸、超买和过度看涨的时候。市场无一例外地回调。有时只是下降10-20%。然而，有时它要多得多。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94303def553720b6876fea635f4790b4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"451\"><blockquote></blockquote> While prices can certainly seem to defy the law of gravity in the short-term, the subsequent reversion from extremes&nbsp;has repeatedly led to catastrophic losses for investors who disregard the risk.<blockquote>虽然价格在短期内肯定会违背万有引力定律，但随后从极端情况的回归多次给无视风险的投资者带来灾难性损失。</blockquote> There are substantial reasons to be pessimistic about the markets longer-term. Economic growth, excessive monetary interventions, earnings, valuations, etc., all suggest that future returns will be substantially lower than those seen over the last decade.&nbsp;Bullish exuberance has erased the memories of the previous two major bear markets and replaced it with&nbsp;“hope”&nbsp;that somehow,&nbsp;“this time will be different.”<blockquote>有充分的理由对市场长期持悲观态度。和经济增长、过度货币干预、收益、估值等。，都表明未来的回报将大大低于过去十年。看涨热潮抹去了前两次大熊市的记忆，取而代之的是“希望”不知何故，“这次会不一样。”</blockquote> Maybe it will be.<blockquote>也许会的。</blockquote> Probably, it won’t be.<blockquote>很可能，不会。</blockquote> Starting To Take Profits<blockquote>开始获利了结</blockquote> The problem for the majority of investors is the inability to predict whether the subsequent correction will be just a&nbsp;“correction”&nbsp;within an ongoing bull market advance or something materially worse.&nbsp;Unfortunately, by the time most investors figure it out – it is generally far too late to do anything meaningful about it.<blockquote>大多数投资者面临的问题是无法预测随后的调整是否只是“更正”在持续的牛市上涨或更糟糕的情况下。不幸的是，当大多数投资者弄清楚这一点时，通常已经太晚了，无法采取任何有意义的行动。</blockquote> Yesterday, we started selling and taking profits, which provides us three benefits for the future.<blockquote>昨天，我们开始卖出并获利了结，这为我们未来提供了三个好处。</blockquote> <ol> <li>Less equity risk, and higher cash levels, reduce portfolio volatility and allows us to navigate a correction while protecting investment capital.<blockquote><ol><li>较低的股票风险和较高的现金水平降低了投资组合的波动性，使我们能够在保护投资资本的同时应对调整。</li></ol></blockquote></li> <li>It gives us capital to reinvest back into positions we currently own at better prices; or,<blockquote><li>它让我们有资本以更好的价格再投资回我们目前持有的头寸；或者，</li></blockquote></li> <li>Buy new positions which have corrected in price.<blockquote><li>买入价格已经调整的新头寸。</li></blockquote></li> </ol> While it is entirely true that&nbsp;“you can not time the market,”you can do some analysis and make deliberate changes to avoid problems.<blockquote>虽然这是完全正确的“你不能把握市场时机。”你可以做一些分析，故意改变，以避免问题。</blockquote> As discussed previously, “risk happens fast.”<blockquote>如前所述，“风险发生得很快。”</blockquote> It is essential not to react emotionally to a sell-off.&nbsp;Instead, fall back on your investment discipline and strategy.Importantly,&nbsp;keep your portfolio management process as simplistic as possible.<blockquote>重要的是不要对抛售做出情绪化的反应。相反，依靠你的投资纪律和策略。重要的是，让你的投资组合管理过程尽可能简单。</blockquote> <ol> <li>Trim Winning Positions&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)</li> <li>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.If they don’t rally with the market during this recent rally,&nbsp; they will decline more when the market sells off again.</li> <li>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up&nbsp;to new levels.</li> <li>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.</li> </ol> This is just how we are approaching it.<blockquote><ol><li>修剪获胜位置回到他们最初的投资组合权重。（即止盈）</li><li>卖出那些不起作用的头寸。如果他们在最近的反弹中没有与市场一起反弹，当市场再次抛售时，他们将下跌更多。</li><li>向上移动跟踪止损达到新的水平。</li><li>根据您的风险承受能力检查您的投资组合分配。如果您在市场周期的这个阶段对股票进行了积极的配置，您可能需要尝试回忆一下您在2008年的感受。提高现金水平，并相应增加固定收益，以减少相对市场敞口。</li></ol>这就是我们对待它的方式。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nuts-bofa-right-about-market-drop-3800\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nuts-bofa-right-about-market-drop-3800","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121229202","content_text":"Recently, Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian discussed why the market could drop to 3800. She discussed her thesis in her latest strategy note titled “Five Reasons To Curb Your Enthusiasm.”\nThis analysis is interesting, particularly when analysts are rushing to upgrade both economic and earnings estimates.\nMore importantly, investors are incredibly long-biased in portfolios, with equity allocations reaching some of the highest levels in history.\nWhat Subramanian questions, and something we have asked previously, is all the “good news” already “priced in?”\n\n“Amid increasingly euphoric sentiment, lofty valuations, and peak stimulus, we continue to believe the market has overly priced in the good news.\n We remain bullish the economy\nbut not the S&P 500.\nOur technical model, 12-month Price Momentum, has recently turned bearish amid extreme returns over the past year.”\n\nWith investors “all in,” we suspect a correction is more likely than not.\nTechnical Deviations\nWhile BofA only expects a 10% correction, as shown, there is a risk of a deeper reversion.\nA correction back to 3800 would only revert prices to mid-2020. As shown, over the last 5-years, corrections have ranged from roughly -10% to -33%. Notably, these corrections usually have reverted the index either to the 200-dma or beyond.\nGiven the magnitude of the market’s current deviation from the 200-dma, a correction will likely surpass 3800. A retest of the 200-dma seems most probable.\nFurthermore, the entire market(small, mid, and large-capitalization companies) have all risen sharply in the liquidity-fueled advance from the March 2020 lows. Such provides plenty of fuel for a more significant correction if selling begins in earnest.\nThe 200-dma remains the lower boundary for corrections over the past 5-years. That level helps define the parameters of a retracement.As shown below, using the October lows as a starting point for the current rally, a 38.2% retracement aligns mostly with BofA’s prediction.\nHowever, a 50% retracement seems more logical as it aligns with the previous bottoms in both February and March. But a 61.8% retracement also aligns with the 200-dma. As such, we can determine that a correction could range from:\n\n38.2% = 8.3% Decline\n50.0% = 10.89% Decline\n61.8% = 13.46% Decline\n\nWhile the mainstream media loathes the discussion of a correction, corrections of this magnitude are a healthy process of reverting market excesses. Furthermore, corrections of this magnitude are well within the confines of drawdowns seen over the last 5-years of the market’s advance.\nFundamentals Require A Lot More\nAs discussed in “Earnings Optimism Explodes,” the market has run well ahead of fundamentals.\n\n“Here is the problem for investors currently. Given analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, such leaves little room for disappointment. As shown, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.”\n\n\nAs BofA noted, their “fair value” model also suggests that prices are near a peak with a downside target of 3635. (Based on BofA’s 2022 cyclically-adjusted earnings forecast of $173 and its equity risk premium (ERP) forecast of 425bp by year-end (vs. 398bp today.)\n\nLonger-term valuation metrics are all entirely distorted and suggests markets a likely close to a long-term peak than not. As Michael Lebowitz noted recently, the four major valuation indicators are simultaneously at levels offering near-zero returns over the next decade.\n\nThis Is Nuts\nOn many levels, the current exuberance is “nutty.” Our “Fear/Greed Allocation” gauge, which measures investor’s equity exposure, shows the same. With the index pushing 100, a historical rarity, such precedes market corrections.\n\nThere are few points in history where the market was this significantly deviated, extended, overbought, and overly bullish. Without exception, the market corrected. Sometimes it was just a 10-20% decline. However, sometimes it is a lot more.\n\nWhile prices can certainly seem to defy the law of gravity in the short-term, the subsequent reversion from extremes has repeatedly led to catastrophic losses for investors who disregard the risk.\nThere are substantial reasons to be pessimistic about the markets longer-term. Economic growth, excessive monetary interventions, earnings, valuations, etc., all suggest that future returns will be substantially lower than those seen over the last decade. Bullish exuberance has erased the memories of the previous two major bear markets and replaced it with “hope” that somehow, “this time will be different.”\nMaybe it will be.\nProbably, it won’t be.\nStarting To Take Profits\nThe problem for the majority of investors is the inability to predict whether the subsequent correction will be just a “correction” within an ongoing bull market advance or something materially worse. Unfortunately, by the time most investors figure it out – it is generally far too late to do anything meaningful about it.\nYesterday, we started selling and taking profits, which provides us three benefits for the future.\n\nLess equity risk, and higher cash levels, reduce portfolio volatility and allows us to navigate a correction while protecting investment capital.\nIt gives us capital to reinvest back into positions we currently own at better prices; or,\nBuy new positions which have corrected in price.\n\nWhile it is entirely true that “you can not time the market,”you can do some analysis and make deliberate changes to avoid problems.\nAs discussed previously, “risk happens fast.”\nIt is essential not to react emotionally to a sell-off. Instead, fall back on your investment discipline and strategy.Importantly, keep your portfolio management process as simplistic as possible.\n\nTrim Winning Positions back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)\nSell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.If they don’t rally with the market during this recent rally,  they will decline more when the market sells off again.\nMove Trailing Stop Losses Up to new levels.\nReview Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance. If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.\n\nThis is just how we are approaching it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":299,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/371778123"}