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2021-04-25

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Apple Stock Bear Sounds The Alarm: Expect 13% Decline<blockquote>苹果股市熊市敲响警钟：预计下跌13%</blockquote>

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One Wall Street analyst has recently ","content":"Even Apple bulls should understand the bear case on the stock. One Wall Street analyst has recently explained why Apple share price could decline by 13% to $115 apiece.<blockquote>即使是苹果的多头也应该了解该股的熊市情况。一位华尔街分析师最近解释了为什么苹果股价可能下跌13%至每股115美元。</blockquote> It is rare to read or hear from an Apple stock bear on Wall Street. When ithappens, I like to pay close attention.I think it is important to understand&nbsp;the devil’s advocate case to investing in a company with such strong business fundamentals.<blockquote>很少读到或听到华尔街看空苹果股票的消息。当它发生时，我喜欢密切关注。我认为了解魔鬼代言人对于投资一家业务基本面如此强劲的公司非常重要。</blockquote> Following Apple’s Spring Loaded event, Wolfe Research analyst Jeff Kvaal published a note discussing his main takeaways. I was mostly interested not in his “hot takes” on the event, but in why the sell-side expert thinks that Apple shares are worth only $115 – representing 13% downside risk.<blockquote>在苹果的Spring Loaded活动之后，Wolfe Research分析师Jeff Kvaal发表了一份报告，讨论了他的主要观点。我最感兴趣的不是他对这一事件的“热门观点”，而是为什么卖方专家认为苹果股票仅值115美元——这意味着13%的下行风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8e4c7c9ed80330b554bb91087bf6ee0\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Apple's Spring Loaded event logo.<blockquote>图1：苹果的弹簧加载活动标志。</blockquote> Some bullishness first<blockquote>首先是一些看涨</blockquote> In its note, Wolfe Research presented what seemed to be positive reactions to Apple’s product refresh event of April 20. Here are some key observations from the analyst:<blockquote>Wolfe Research在其报告中介绍了对苹果4月20日产品更新活动的积极反应。以下是分析师的一些关键观察结果：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The M1-equipped iMac&nbsp;was a good surprise, since the last refresh had happened as recently as August 2020. I believe that,with the introduction of its new M1 chip&nbsp;and redesigned architecture, Apple will continue to accelerate product innovation.</li> <li>The iPad Pro&nbsp;was also redesigned around the M1 silicon, rather than the traditional A-series chip. Once again, I see Apple looking for an edge in product innovation as a way to keep demand for its devices elevated in the post-pandemic period.</li> <li>The purple iPhone 12&nbsp;was Apple’s first stand-alone, off-cycle smartphone. With&nbsp;the 12 mini allegedly struggling&nbsp;to find traction, maybe the Cupertino company saw an opportunity to increase entry-level iPhone sales by simply introducing a prettier-looking case.</li> </ul> The analyst summarized his main observations about Spring Loaded with this quote:<blockquote><ul><li>配备M1的iMac这是一个很好的惊喜，因为上一次刷新发生在2020年8月。我相信，随着其全新M1芯片和重新设计的架构的推出，苹果将继续加速产品创新。</li><li>iPad Pro也围绕M1芯片进行了重新设计，而不是传统的A系列芯片。我再次看到苹果在产品创新方面寻求优势，以此作为在大流行后时期保持对其设备需求的一种方式。</li><li>紫色iPhone 12是苹果第一款独立的非周期智能手机。据称，12 mini正在努力寻找吸引力，也许这家库比蒂诺公司看到了通过简单地推出更漂亮的外壳来增加入门级iPhone销量的机会。</li></ul>这位分析师用这句话总结了他对Spring的主要观察：</blockquote> “M1 expansion, not new products, is our key positive takeaway.” Why Apple stock could correct<blockquote>“M1扩张，而不是新产品，是我们关键的积极收获。”为什么苹果股票可以调整</blockquote> Now, on to the bear case. Wolfe’s argument for a 13% share price decline has nothing to do with Apple’s most recent product refresh cycle. Rather, the analyst justified bearishness as follows:<blockquote>现在，来看看熊的情况。沃尔夫关于股价下跌13%的论点与苹果最近的产品更新周期无关。相反，分析师对看跌的理由如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>“Throughout the pandemic, Apple has blown away its consensus estimates; [yet, the stock] has underperformed the market by [about] 10% year to date”. Wolfe is alluding to the fact that nothing else, from the perspective of financial performance, seems able to push Apple stock higher. In fact, shares have been down since January 2021 and flat since early-August 2020.</li> <li>“Residual strength in the iPhone Pro and Pro Max due to channel inventory fill should ease heading into fiscal third quarter”. In plain English, Wolfe seems to think that some of Apple’s recent sales growth may have been driven by inventory buildup at stores. As the stock of new higher-end iPhones decline, revenue growth should moderate.</li> <li>“The Mac, iPad, and Services segments face stiff compares as Apple circles onto its first full quarter of pandemic comps”. I think that a tough 2020 benchmark could, in fact, be a potential headwind, especially in the back half of fiscal 2021. How can Apple top iPad sales growth of 43% in last year’s holiday and pre-holiday quarters? The good news is that the Cupertino company has been aggressive at rolling out appealing new tablets and personal computers in the past few months.</li> <li>“We [remain] apprehensive of the expectations embedded in Apples high multiple”. To be fair, the stock’s valuations seem a bit stretched. I&nbsp;discussed the subject in more detail&nbsp;recently, concluding that:</li> </ul> “Apple’s rich multiples could find upside resistance from here. Should Apple stock price rise, which it very well may, it will likely be the result of growth in financial metrics (sales, earnings, cash flow) rather than valuation expansion.” <blockquote><ul><li>“在整个大流行期间，苹果超出了人们的普遍预期；[然而，该股]今年迄今为止的表现落后于市场[约]10%”.沃尔夫暗示，从财务业绩的角度来看，似乎没有其他任何东西能够推高苹果股价。事实上，股价自2021年1月以来一直下跌，自2020年8月初以来一直持平。</li><li>“由于渠道库存填充，iPhone Pro和Pro Max的剩余实力在进入第三财季时应该会有所缓解”.用简单的英语来说，沃尔夫似乎认为苹果最近的部分销售增长可能是由商店库存增加推动的。随着新款高端iPhone的存量下降，收入增长应该会放缓。</li><li>“随着苹果进入第一个完整季度的大流行比较，Mac、iPad和服务领域面临激烈的比较”.我认为，事实上，艰难的2020年基准可能是一个潜在的阻力，尤其是在2021财年下半年。苹果如何超越去年假期和节前季度43%的iPad销量增长？好消息是，在过去的几个月里，这家库比蒂诺公司一直在积极推出吸引人的新平板电脑和个人电脑。</li><li>“我们[仍然]对苹果高倍数的期望感到担忧”.公平地说，该股的估值似乎有点过高。我最近更详细地讨论了这个主题，得出的结论是：</li></ul>“苹果的丰富市盈率可能会从这里找到上行阻力。如果苹果股价上涨（很有可能上涨），这很可能是财务指标（销售额、盈利、现金流）增长的结果，而不是估值扩张的结果。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Bear Sounds The Alarm: Expect 13% Decline<blockquote>苹果股市熊市敲响警钟：预计下跌13%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Bear Sounds The Alarm: Expect 13% Decline<blockquote>苹果股市熊市敲响警钟：预计下跌13%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-04-23 21:58\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nEven Apple bulls should understand the bear case on the stock. One Wall Street analyst has recently explained why Apple share price could decline by 13% to $115 apiece.<blockquote>即使是苹果的多头也应该了解该股的熊市情况。一位华尔街分析师最近解释了为什么苹果股价可能下跌13%至每股115美元。</blockquote> It is rare to read or hear from an Apple stock bear on Wall Street. When ithappens, I like to pay close attention.I think it is important to understand&nbsp;the devil’s advocate case to investing in a company with such strong business fundamentals.<blockquote>很少读到或听到华尔街看空苹果股票的消息。当它发生时，我喜欢密切关注。我认为了解魔鬼代言人对于投资一家业务基本面如此强劲的公司非常重要。</blockquote> Following Apple’s Spring Loaded event, Wolfe Research analyst Jeff Kvaal published a note discussing his main takeaways. I was mostly interested not in his “hot takes” on the event, but in why the sell-side expert thinks that Apple shares are worth only $115 – representing 13% downside risk.<blockquote>在苹果的Spring Loaded活动之后，Wolfe Research分析师Jeff Kvaal发表了一份报告，讨论了他的主要观点。我最感兴趣的不是他对这一事件的“热门观点”，而是为什么卖方专家认为苹果股票仅值115美元——这意味着13%的下行风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8e4c7c9ed80330b554bb91087bf6ee0\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\">Figure 1: Apple's Spring Loaded event logo.<blockquote>图1：苹果的弹簧加载活动标志。</blockquote> Some bullishness first<blockquote>首先是一些看涨</blockquote> In its note, Wolfe Research presented what seemed to be positive reactions to Apple’s product refresh event of April 20. Here are some key observations from the analyst:<blockquote>Wolfe Research在其报告中介绍了对苹果4月20日产品更新活动的积极反应。以下是分析师的一些关键观察结果：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The M1-equipped iMac&nbsp;was a good surprise, since the last refresh had happened as recently as August 2020. I believe that,with the introduction of its new M1 chip&nbsp;and redesigned architecture, Apple will continue to accelerate product innovation.</li> <li>The iPad Pro&nbsp;was also redesigned around the M1 silicon, rather than the traditional A-series chip. Once again, I see Apple looking for an edge in product innovation as a way to keep demand for its devices elevated in the post-pandemic period.</li> <li>The purple iPhone 12&nbsp;was Apple’s first stand-alone, off-cycle smartphone. With&nbsp;the 12 mini allegedly struggling&nbsp;to find traction, maybe the Cupertino company saw an opportunity to increase entry-level iPhone sales by simply introducing a prettier-looking case.</li> </ul> The analyst summarized his main observations about Spring Loaded with this quote:<blockquote><ul><li>配备M1的iMac这是一个很好的惊喜，因为上一次刷新发生在2020年8月。我相信，随着其全新M1芯片和重新设计的架构的推出，苹果将继续加速产品创新。</li><li>iPad Pro也围绕M1芯片进行了重新设计，而不是传统的A系列芯片。我再次看到苹果在产品创新方面寻求优势，以此作为在大流行后时期保持对其设备需求的一种方式。</li><li>紫色iPhone 12是苹果第一款独立的非周期智能手机。据称，12 mini正在努力寻找吸引力，也许这家库比蒂诺公司看到了通过简单地推出更漂亮的外壳来增加入门级iPhone销量的机会。</li></ul>这位分析师用这句话总结了他对Spring的主要观察：</blockquote> “M1 expansion, not new products, is our key positive takeaway.” Why Apple stock could correct<blockquote>“M1扩张，而不是新产品，是我们关键的积极收获。”为什么苹果股票可以调整</blockquote> Now, on to the bear case. Wolfe’s argument for a 13% share price decline has nothing to do with Apple’s most recent product refresh cycle. Rather, the analyst justified bearishness as follows:<blockquote>现在，来看看熊的情况。沃尔夫关于股价下跌13%的论点与苹果最近的产品更新周期无关。相反，分析师对看跌的理由如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>“Throughout the pandemic, Apple has blown away its consensus estimates; [yet, the stock] has underperformed the market by [about] 10% year to date”. Wolfe is alluding to the fact that nothing else, from the perspective of financial performance, seems able to push Apple stock higher. In fact, shares have been down since January 2021 and flat since early-August 2020.</li> <li>“Residual strength in the iPhone Pro and Pro Max due to channel inventory fill should ease heading into fiscal third quarter”. In plain English, Wolfe seems to think that some of Apple’s recent sales growth may have been driven by inventory buildup at stores. As the stock of new higher-end iPhones decline, revenue growth should moderate.</li> <li>“The Mac, iPad, and Services segments face stiff compares as Apple circles onto its first full quarter of pandemic comps”. I think that a tough 2020 benchmark could, in fact, be a potential headwind, especially in the back half of fiscal 2021. How can Apple top iPad sales growth of 43% in last year’s holiday and pre-holiday quarters? The good news is that the Cupertino company has been aggressive at rolling out appealing new tablets and personal computers in the past few months.</li> <li>“We [remain] apprehensive of the expectations embedded in Apples high multiple”. To be fair, the stock’s valuations seem a bit stretched. I&nbsp;discussed the subject in more detail&nbsp;recently, concluding that:</li> </ul> “Apple’s rich multiples could find upside resistance from here. Should Apple stock price rise, which it very well may, it will likely be the result of growth in financial metrics (sales, earnings, cash flow) rather than valuation expansion.” <blockquote><ul><li>“在整个大流行期间，苹果超出了人们的普遍预期；[然而，该股]今年迄今为止的表现落后于市场[约]10%”.沃尔夫暗示，从财务业绩的角度来看，似乎没有其他任何东西能够推高苹果股价。事实上，股价自2021年1月以来一直下跌，自2020年8月初以来一直持平。</li><li>“由于渠道库存填充，iPhone Pro和Pro Max的剩余实力在进入第三财季时应该会有所缓解”.用简单的英语来说，沃尔夫似乎认为苹果最近的部分销售增长可能是由商店库存增加推动的。随着新款高端iPhone的存量下降，收入增长应该会放缓。</li><li>“随着苹果进入第一个完整季度的大流行比较，Mac、iPad和服务领域面临激烈的比较”.我认为，事实上，艰难的2020年基准可能是一个潜在的阻力，尤其是在2021财年下半年。苹果如何超越去年假期和节前季度43%的iPad销量增长？好消息是，在过去的几个月里，这家库比蒂诺公司一直在积极推出吸引人的新平板电脑和个人电脑。</li><li>“我们[仍然]对苹果高倍数的期望感到担忧”.公平地说，该股的估值似乎有点过高。我最近更详细地讨论了这个主题，得出的结论是：</li></ul>“苹果的丰富市盈率可能会从这里找到上行阻力。如果苹果股价上涨（很有可能上涨），这很可能是财务指标（销售额、盈利、现金流）增长的结果，而不是估值扩张的结果。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-bear-sounds-the-alarm-expect-13-decline\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-bear-sounds-the-alarm-expect-13-decline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162382068","content_text":"Even Apple bulls should understand the bear case on the stock. One Wall Street analyst has recently explained why Apple share price could decline by 13% to $115 apiece.\nIt is rare to read or hear from an Apple stock bear on Wall Street. When ithappens, I like to pay close attention.I think it is important to understand the devil’s advocate case to investing in a company with such strong business fundamentals.\nFollowing Apple’s Spring Loaded event, Wolfe Research analyst Jeff Kvaal published a note discussing his main takeaways. I was mostly interested not in his “hot takes” on the event, but in why the sell-side expert thinks that Apple shares are worth only $115 – representing 13% downside risk.\nFigure 1: Apple's Spring Loaded event logo.\nSome bullishness first\nIn its note, Wolfe Research presented what seemed to be positive reactions to Apple’s product refresh event of April 20. Here are some key observations from the analyst:\n\nThe M1-equipped iMac was a good surprise, since the last refresh had happened as recently as August 2020. I believe that,with the introduction of its new M1 chip and redesigned architecture, Apple will continue to accelerate product innovation.\nThe iPad Pro was also redesigned around the M1 silicon, rather than the traditional A-series chip. Once again, I see Apple looking for an edge in product innovation as a way to keep demand for its devices elevated in the post-pandemic period.\nThe purple iPhone 12 was Apple’s first stand-alone, off-cycle smartphone. With the 12 mini allegedly struggling to find traction, maybe the Cupertino company saw an opportunity to increase entry-level iPhone sales by simply introducing a prettier-looking case.\n\nThe analyst summarized his main observations about Spring Loaded with this quote:\n\n “M1 expansion, not new products, is our key positive takeaway.”\n\nWhy Apple stock could correct\nNow, on to the bear case. Wolfe’s argument for a 13% share price decline has nothing to do with Apple’s most recent product refresh cycle. Rather, the analyst justified bearishness as follows:\n\n“Throughout the pandemic, Apple has blown away its consensus estimates; [yet, the stock] has underperformed the market by [about] 10% year to date”. Wolfe is alluding to the fact that nothing else, from the perspective of financial performance, seems able to push Apple stock higher. In fact, shares have been down since January 2021 and flat since early-August 2020.\n“Residual strength in the iPhone Pro and Pro Max due to channel inventory fill should ease heading into fiscal third quarter”. In plain English, Wolfe seems to think that some of Apple’s recent sales growth may have been driven by inventory buildup at stores. As the stock of new higher-end iPhones decline, revenue growth should moderate.\n“The Mac, iPad, and Services segments face stiff compares as Apple circles onto its first full quarter of pandemic comps”. I think that a tough 2020 benchmark could, in fact, be a potential headwind, especially in the back half of fiscal 2021. How can Apple top iPad sales growth of 43% in last year’s holiday and pre-holiday quarters? The good news is that the Cupertino company has been aggressive at rolling out appealing new tablets and personal computers in the past few months.\n“We [remain] apprehensive of the expectations embedded in Apples high multiple”. To be fair, the stock’s valuations seem a bit stretched. I discussed the subject in more detail recently, concluding that:\n\n\n “Apple’s rich multiples could find upside resistance from here. Should Apple stock price rise, which it very well may, it will likely be the result of growth in financial metrics (sales, earnings, cash flow) rather than valuation expansion.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/375946086"}