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Insiders Are Sending A Pretty Clear Signal About The Stock Market (And The Economy)<blockquote>内部人士发出了有关股市（和经济）的非常明确的信号</blockquote>

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In addition, many suggest that, while insider buying may be predictive at times, insider selling is not. Both of these positions, however, are contradicted by the data.<blockquote>正如大多数读者应该很清楚的那样，我最密切关注的事情之一是内幕交易。没有人比公司的高管更了解一家企业的看涨和看跌发展及其相对于这些发展的估值。现在一些人认为，虽然内幕交易有时可能是个股未来价格变动的良好指标，但总体而言，它根本没有任何意义。此外，许多人认为，虽然内幕买入有时可能具有预测性，但内幕卖出却不是。然而，这两种立场都与数据相矛盾。</blockquote> As&nbsp;Nejat Seyhun, Professor of Finance at the University of Michigan, has demonstrated in his book,&nbsp;Investment Intelligence From Insider Trading, the aggregate selling-to-buying ratio over certain periods of time has a very good track record at predicting future returns in the stock market.&nbsp;In his words,“Aggregate insider trading predicts aggregate stock returns.”Furthermore, “Aggregate insider trading predicts changes in future economic growth up to two years ahead.” So not only are insiders better market strategists than those on Wall Street, they are also better economists.<blockquote>正如密歇根大学金融学教授Nejat Seyhun在他的书《Investment Intelligence From Insider Trading》中所证明的那样，特定时期的总卖出与买入比率在预测股市未来回报方面有着非常好的记录。用他的话说，“总体内幕交易预测总体股票回报。”此外，“内幕交易总量预测了未来两年经济增长的变化。”因此，内部人士不仅是比华尔街人士更好的市场策略师，也是更好的经济学家。</blockquote> This should make intuitive sense.Who has a better read on both the stock market and the economy than the amalgamation of those top executives in the country with the confidence to not merely make a public forecast but actually put their money where their mouths are?<blockquote>这应该有直观的意义。有谁比这个国家的高管们更了解股市和经济呢？他们不仅有信心做出公开预测，而且实际上把钱花在了他们的嘴上。</blockquote> As to those who say, ‘there are many reasons for an insider to sell; there’s only one reason to buy,’ again here is Mr. Seyhun: “both purchases and sales seem to be informative. The future stock price movements following insider purchases exceed the average stock price movements. Also the future stock price movements following insider sales fall short of the average stock price movements.”<blockquote>至于那些说：“内部人士出售的原因有很多；“买入的理由只有一个，”Seyhun先生再次说道：“买入和卖出似乎都提供了信息。内幕交易后的未来股价走势超过了平均股价走势。内幕交易后的未来股价走势也低于平均股价走势。”</blockquote> Certainly, we have seen this play out over the past year.The aggregate insider buying just over a year ago has proved very prescient as to the direction of the stock market, the&nbsp;leadership of the rebound&nbsp;in stock prices and the turnaround in the economy so far.&nbsp;However, when we look at the recent data (provided by&nbsp;InsideArbitrage.com), it’s immediately apparent that the top executives (along with directors and 10% shareholders) have rarely been as aggressive in selling, or disinterested in buying,&nbsp;as they are today.<blockquote>当然，我们在过去的一年里已经看到了这种情况。事实证明，就在一年多前，内幕人士的总体买入对于股市的方向、股价反弹的领先地位以及迄今为止经济的好转都非常有先见之明。然而，当我们查看最近的数据（由InsideArbitrage.com提供）时，我显而易见的是，高管（以及董事和10%的股东）很少像今天这样积极出售，或者对购买不感兴趣。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c9e459013ee9778fa4c5034a2f04f6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"362\">In light of Seyhun’s findings noted above, this relative bearishness on the part of insiders in aggregate would seem to suggest thatstock prices are likely to fall short of&nbsp;euphoric expectations&nbsp;over the next year or so.On top of that, the economy could begin to disappoint on a similar time frame, as well. Don’t say they didn’t warn you.<blockquote>根据Seyhun的上述发现，内部人士总体上的相对悲观情绪似乎表明在未来一年左右的时间里，股价可能会低于人们的乐观预期。最重要的是，经济也可能在类似的时间框架内开始令人失望。别说他们没警告过你。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Insiders Are Sending A Pretty Clear Signal About The Stock Market (And The Economy)<blockquote>内部人士发出了有关股市（和经济）的非常明确的信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInsiders Are Sending A Pretty Clear Signal About The Stock Market (And The Economy)<blockquote>内部人士发出了有关股市（和经济）的非常明确的信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-04-16 19:26\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe following is an excerpt from a recent Market Comment featured on&nbsp;The Felder Report PREMIUM.<blockquote>以下摘自Felder Report PREMIUM最近的市场评论。</blockquote> As most readers should be well aware, one of the things I monitor most closely is insider buying and selling.Nobody knows more about the bullish and bearish developments of a business and its valuation relative to those developments than the company’s top executives.&nbsp;Now some believe that, while insider activity may sometimes be a good indication of future price movements in individual stocks, in aggregate it doesn’t have any meaning at all. In addition, many suggest that, while insider buying may be predictive at times, insider selling is not. Both of these positions, however, are contradicted by the data.<blockquote>正如大多数读者应该很清楚的那样，我最密切关注的事情之一是内幕交易。没有人比公司的高管更了解一家企业的看涨和看跌发展及其相对于这些发展的估值。现在一些人认为，虽然内幕交易有时可能是个股未来价格变动的良好指标，但总体而言，它根本没有任何意义。此外，许多人认为，虽然内幕买入有时可能具有预测性，但内幕卖出却不是。然而，这两种立场都与数据相矛盾。</blockquote> As&nbsp;Nejat Seyhun, Professor of Finance at the University of Michigan, has demonstrated in his book,&nbsp;Investment Intelligence From Insider Trading, the aggregate selling-to-buying ratio over certain periods of time has a very good track record at predicting future returns in the stock market.&nbsp;In his words,“Aggregate insider trading predicts aggregate stock returns.”Furthermore, “Aggregate insider trading predicts changes in future economic growth up to two years ahead.” So not only are insiders better market strategists than those on Wall Street, they are also better economists.<blockquote>正如密歇根大学金融学教授Nejat Seyhun在他的书《Investment Intelligence From Insider Trading》中所证明的那样，特定时期的总卖出与买入比率在预测股市未来回报方面有着非常好的记录。用他的话说，“总体内幕交易预测总体股票回报。”此外，“内幕交易总量预测了未来两年经济增长的变化。”因此，内部人士不仅是比华尔街人士更好的市场策略师，也是更好的经济学家。</blockquote> This should make intuitive sense.Who has a better read on both the stock market and the economy than the amalgamation of those top executives in the country with the confidence to not merely make a public forecast but actually put their money where their mouths are?<blockquote>这应该有直观的意义。有谁比这个国家的高管们更了解股市和经济呢？他们不仅有信心做出公开预测，而且实际上把钱花在了他们的嘴上。</blockquote> As to those who say, ‘there are many reasons for an insider to sell; there’s only one reason to buy,’ again here is Mr. Seyhun: “both purchases and sales seem to be informative. The future stock price movements following insider purchases exceed the average stock price movements. Also the future stock price movements following insider sales fall short of the average stock price movements.”<blockquote>至于那些说：“内部人士出售的原因有很多；“买入的理由只有一个，”Seyhun先生再次说道：“买入和卖出似乎都提供了信息。内幕交易后的未来股价走势超过了平均股价走势。内幕交易后的未来股价走势也低于平均股价走势。”</blockquote> Certainly, we have seen this play out over the past year.The aggregate insider buying just over a year ago has proved very prescient as to the direction of the stock market, the&nbsp;leadership of the rebound&nbsp;in stock prices and the turnaround in the economy so far.&nbsp;However, when we look at the recent data (provided by&nbsp;InsideArbitrage.com), it’s immediately apparent that the top executives (along with directors and 10% shareholders) have rarely been as aggressive in selling, or disinterested in buying,&nbsp;as they are today.<blockquote>当然，我们在过去的一年里已经看到了这种情况。事实证明，就在一年多前，内幕人士的总体买入对于股市的方向、股价反弹的领先地位以及迄今为止经济的好转都非常有先见之明。然而，当我们查看最近的数据（由InsideArbitrage.com提供）时，我显而易见的是，高管（以及董事和10%的股东）很少像今天这样积极出售，或者对购买不感兴趣。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c9e459013ee9778fa4c5034a2f04f6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"362\">In light of Seyhun’s findings noted above, this relative bearishness on the part of insiders in aggregate would seem to suggest thatstock prices are likely to fall short of&nbsp;euphoric expectations&nbsp;over the next year or so.On top of that, the economy could begin to disappoint on a similar time frame, as well. Don’t say they didn’t warn you.<blockquote>根据Seyhun的上述发现，内部人士总体上的相对悲观情绪似乎表明在未来一年左右的时间里，股价可能会低于人们的乐观预期。最重要的是，经济也可能在类似的时间框架内开始令人失望。别说他们没警告过你。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/insiders-are-sending-pretty-clear-signal-about-stock-market-and-economy?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/insiders-are-sending-pretty-clear-signal-about-stock-market-and-economy?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106901371","content_text":"The following is an excerpt from a recent Market Comment featured on The Felder Report PREMIUM.\nAs most readers should be well aware, one of the things I monitor most closely is insider buying and selling.Nobody knows more about the bullish and bearish developments of a business and its valuation relative to those developments than the company’s top executives. Now some believe that, while insider activity may sometimes be a good indication of future price movements in individual stocks, in aggregate it doesn’t have any meaning at all. In addition, many suggest that, while insider buying may be predictive at times, insider selling is not. Both of these positions, however, are contradicted by the data.\nAs Nejat Seyhun, Professor of Finance at the University of Michigan, has demonstrated in his book, Investment Intelligence From Insider Trading, the aggregate selling-to-buying ratio over certain periods of time has a very good track record at predicting future returns in the stock market. In his words,“Aggregate insider trading predicts aggregate stock returns.”Furthermore, “Aggregate insider trading predicts changes in future economic growth up to two years ahead.” So not only are insiders better market strategists than those on Wall Street, they are also better economists.\nThis should make intuitive sense.Who has a better read on both the stock market and the economy than the amalgamation of those top executives in the country with the confidence to not merely make a public forecast but actually put their money where their mouths are?\nAs to those who say, ‘there are many reasons for an insider to sell; there’s only one reason to buy,’ again here is Mr. Seyhun: “both purchases and sales seem to be informative. The future stock price movements following insider purchases exceed the average stock price movements. Also the future stock price movements following insider sales fall short of the average stock price movements.”\nCertainly, we have seen this play out over the past year.The aggregate insider buying just over a year ago has proved very prescient as to the direction of the stock market, the leadership of the rebound in stock prices and the turnaround in the economy so far. However, when we look at the recent data (provided by InsideArbitrage.com), it’s immediately apparent that the top executives (along with directors and 10% shareholders) have rarely been as aggressive in selling, or disinterested in buying, as they are today.\nIn light of Seyhun’s findings noted above, this relative bearishness on the part of insiders in aggregate would seem to suggest thatstock prices are likely to fall short of euphoric expectations over the next year or so.On top of that, the economy could begin to disappoint on a similar time frame, as well. Don’t say they didn’t warn you.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/379696840"}