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Insiders Are Sending A Pretty Clear Signal About The Stock Market (And The Economy)<blockquote>内部人士正在发出有关股市（和经济）的非常明确的信号</blockquote>

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In addition, many suggest that, while insider buying may be predictive at times, insider selling is not. Both of these positions, however, are contradicted by the data.<blockquote>正如大多数读者应该很清楚的那样，我最密切关注的事情之一是内幕买卖。没有人比公司高层管理人员更了解一家企业的看涨和看跌发展以及相对于这些发展的估值。现在，一些人认为，虽然内部人士的活动有时可能是个股未来价格走势的一个很好的指标，但总体而言，它根本没有任何意义。此外，许多人认为，虽然内幕买入有时可能是可预测的，但内幕卖出却不是。然而，这两种立场都与数据相矛盾。</blockquote> As&nbsp;Nejat Seyhun, Professor of Finance at the University of Michigan, has demonstrated in his book,&nbsp;Investment Intelligence From Insider Trading, the aggregate selling-to-buying ratio over certain periods of time has a very good track record at predicting future returns in the stock market.&nbsp;In his words,“Aggregate insider trading predicts aggregate stock returns.”Furthermore, “Aggregate insider trading predicts changes in future economic growth up to two years ahead.” So not only are insiders better market strategists than those on Wall Street, they are also better economists.<blockquote>正如密歇根大学金融学教授Nejat Seyhun在他的《来自内幕交易的投资情报》一书中所证明的那样，特定时间段内的总买卖比在预测股市未来回报方面有着非常好的记录。用他的话说，“内幕交易总量预测股票总回报”。此外，“内幕交易总量预测了未来两年内未来经济增长的变化”。因此，内部人士不仅是比华尔街更好的市场战略家，他们也是更好的经济学家。</blockquote> This should make intuitive sense.Who has a better read on both the stock market and the economy than the amalgamation of those top executives in the country with the confidence to not merely make a public forecast but actually put their money where their mouths are?<blockquote>这应该是直观的。对于股市和经济，有谁比那些有信心不仅做出公开预测，而且真正把钱用在嘴上的地方的高层管理人员的合并更了解呢？</blockquote> As to those who say, ‘there are many reasons for an insider to sell; there’s only one reason to buy,’ again here is Mr. Seyhun: “both purchases and sales seem to be informative. The future stock price movements following insider purchases exceed the average stock price movements. Also the future stock price movements following insider sales fall short of the average stock price movements.”<blockquote>至于那些说，“内部人士出售的理由有很多；买入的理由只有一个，Seyhun 先生又来了： “买入和卖出似乎都能提供信息。内幕交易后的未来股价变动超过了平均股价变动。此外，内幕交易后的未来股价变动也低于平均股价变动。”</blockquote> Certainly, we have seen this play out over the past year.The aggregate insider buying just over a year ago has proved very prescient as to the direction of the stock market, the&nbsp;leadership of the rebound&nbsp;in stock prices and the turnaround in the economy so far.&nbsp;However, when we look at the recent data (provided by&nbsp;InsideArbitrage.com), it’s immediately apparent that the top executives (along with directors and 10% shareholders) have rarely been as aggressive in selling, or disinterested in buying,&nbsp;as they are today.<blockquote>当然，在过去的一年里，我们已经看到了这种情况。事实证明，就在一年多前的总内幕买入对于股市的走向、股价反弹的领导力以及迄今为止经济的好转都非常有先见之明。然而，当我们查看最近的数据（由InsideArbitrage.com提供）时，我显而易见，高层管理人员（以及董事和 10% 的股东）很少像今天这样积极出售，也很少对购买不感兴趣。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c9e459013ee9778fa4c5034a2f04f6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"362\">In light of Seyhun’s findings noted above, this relative bearishness on the part of insiders in aggregate would seem to suggest thatstock prices are likely to fall short of&nbsp;euphoric expectations&nbsp;over the next year or so.On top of that, the economy could begin to disappoint on a similar time frame, as well. Don’t say they didn’t warn you.<blockquote>根据上述 Seyhun 的调查结果，内部人士的这种相对悲观情绪似乎表明：在未来一年左右的时间里，股票价格可能会低于乐观的预期。最重要的是，在类似的时间框架内，经济也可能开始令人失望。别说他们没警告你。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Insiders Are Sending A Pretty Clear Signal About The Stock Market (And The Economy)<blockquote>内部人士正在发出有关股市（和经济）的非常明确的信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInsiders Are Sending A Pretty Clear Signal About The Stock Market (And The Economy)<blockquote>内部人士正在发出有关股市（和经济）的非常明确的信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-04-16 19:26\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe following is an excerpt from a recent Market Comment featured on&nbsp;The Felder Report PREMIUM.<blockquote>以下是Felder Report PREMIUM上最近的市场评论摘录。</blockquote> As most readers should be well aware, one of the things I monitor most closely is insider buying and selling.Nobody knows more about the bullish and bearish developments of a business and its valuation relative to those developments than the company’s top executives.&nbsp;Now some believe that, while insider activity may sometimes be a good indication of future price movements in individual stocks, in aggregate it doesn’t have any meaning at all. In addition, many suggest that, while insider buying may be predictive at times, insider selling is not. Both of these positions, however, are contradicted by the data.<blockquote>正如大多数读者应该很清楚的那样，我最密切关注的事情之一是内幕买卖。没有人比公司高层管理人员更了解一家企业的看涨和看跌发展以及相对于这些发展的估值。现在，一些人认为，虽然内部人士的活动有时可能是个股未来价格走势的一个很好的指标，但总体而言，它根本没有任何意义。此外，许多人认为，虽然内幕买入有时可能是可预测的，但内幕卖出却不是。然而，这两种立场都与数据相矛盾。</blockquote> As&nbsp;Nejat Seyhun, Professor of Finance at the University of Michigan, has demonstrated in his book,&nbsp;Investment Intelligence From Insider Trading, the aggregate selling-to-buying ratio over certain periods of time has a very good track record at predicting future returns in the stock market.&nbsp;In his words,“Aggregate insider trading predicts aggregate stock returns.”Furthermore, “Aggregate insider trading predicts changes in future economic growth up to two years ahead.” So not only are insiders better market strategists than those on Wall Street, they are also better economists.<blockquote>正如密歇根大学金融学教授Nejat Seyhun在他的《来自内幕交易的投资情报》一书中所证明的那样，特定时间段内的总买卖比在预测股市未来回报方面有着非常好的记录。用他的话说，“内幕交易总量预测股票总回报”。此外，“内幕交易总量预测了未来两年内未来经济增长的变化”。因此，内部人士不仅是比华尔街更好的市场战略家，他们也是更好的经济学家。</blockquote> This should make intuitive sense.Who has a better read on both the stock market and the economy than the amalgamation of those top executives in the country with the confidence to not merely make a public forecast but actually put their money where their mouths are?<blockquote>这应该是直观的。对于股市和经济，有谁比那些有信心不仅做出公开预测，而且真正把钱用在嘴上的地方的高层管理人员的合并更了解呢？</blockquote> As to those who say, ‘there are many reasons for an insider to sell; there’s only one reason to buy,’ again here is Mr. Seyhun: “both purchases and sales seem to be informative. The future stock price movements following insider purchases exceed the average stock price movements. Also the future stock price movements following insider sales fall short of the average stock price movements.”<blockquote>至于那些说，“内部人士出售的理由有很多；买入的理由只有一个，Seyhun 先生又来了： “买入和卖出似乎都能提供信息。内幕交易后的未来股价变动超过了平均股价变动。此外，内幕交易后的未来股价变动也低于平均股价变动。”</blockquote> Certainly, we have seen this play out over the past year.The aggregate insider buying just over a year ago has proved very prescient as to the direction of the stock market, the&nbsp;leadership of the rebound&nbsp;in stock prices and the turnaround in the economy so far.&nbsp;However, when we look at the recent data (provided by&nbsp;InsideArbitrage.com), it’s immediately apparent that the top executives (along with directors and 10% shareholders) have rarely been as aggressive in selling, or disinterested in buying,&nbsp;as they are today.<blockquote>当然，在过去的一年里，我们已经看到了这种情况。事实证明，就在一年多前的总内幕买入对于股市的走向、股价反弹的领导力以及迄今为止经济的好转都非常有先见之明。然而，当我们查看最近的数据（由InsideArbitrage.com提供）时，我显而易见，高层管理人员（以及董事和 10% 的股东）很少像今天这样积极出售，也很少对购买不感兴趣。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c9e459013ee9778fa4c5034a2f04f6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"362\">In light of Seyhun’s findings noted above, this relative bearishness on the part of insiders in aggregate would seem to suggest thatstock prices are likely to fall short of&nbsp;euphoric expectations&nbsp;over the next year or so.On top of that, the economy could begin to disappoint on a similar time frame, as well. Don’t say they didn’t warn you.<blockquote>根据上述 Seyhun 的调查结果，内部人士的这种相对悲观情绪似乎表明：在未来一年左右的时间里，股票价格可能会低于乐观的预期。最重要的是，在类似的时间框架内，经济也可能开始令人失望。别说他们没警告你。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/insiders-are-sending-pretty-clear-signal-about-stock-market-and-economy?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/insiders-are-sending-pretty-clear-signal-about-stock-market-and-economy?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106901371","content_text":"The following is an excerpt from a recent Market Comment featured on The Felder Report PREMIUM.\nAs most readers should be well aware, one of the things I monitor most closely is insider buying and selling.Nobody knows more about the bullish and bearish developments of a business and its valuation relative to those developments than the company’s top executives. Now some believe that, while insider activity may sometimes be a good indication of future price movements in individual stocks, in aggregate it doesn’t have any meaning at all. In addition, many suggest that, while insider buying may be predictive at times, insider selling is not. Both of these positions, however, are contradicted by the data.\nAs Nejat Seyhun, Professor of Finance at the University of Michigan, has demonstrated in his book, Investment Intelligence From Insider Trading, the aggregate selling-to-buying ratio over certain periods of time has a very good track record at predicting future returns in the stock market. In his words,“Aggregate insider trading predicts aggregate stock returns.”Furthermore, “Aggregate insider trading predicts changes in future economic growth up to two years ahead.” So not only are insiders better market strategists than those on Wall Street, they are also better economists.\nThis should make intuitive sense.Who has a better read on both the stock market and the economy than the amalgamation of those top executives in the country with the confidence to not merely make a public forecast but actually put their money where their mouths are?\nAs to those who say, ‘there are many reasons for an insider to sell; there’s only one reason to buy,’ again here is Mr. Seyhun: “both purchases and sales seem to be informative. The future stock price movements following insider purchases exceed the average stock price movements. Also the future stock price movements following insider sales fall short of the average stock price movements.”\nCertainly, we have seen this play out over the past year.The aggregate insider buying just over a year ago has proved very prescient as to the direction of the stock market, the leadership of the rebound in stock prices and the turnaround in the economy so far. However, when we look at the recent data (provided by InsideArbitrage.com), it’s immediately apparent that the top executives (along with directors and 10% shareholders) have rarely been as aggressive in selling, or disinterested in buying, as they are today.\nIn light of Seyhun’s findings noted above, this relative bearishness on the part of insiders in aggregate would seem to suggest thatstock prices are likely to fall short of euphoric expectations over the next year or so.On top of that, the economy could begin to disappoint on a similar time frame, as well. Don’t say they didn’t warn you.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1030,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/379696840"}