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2021-02-10

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The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?<blockquote>30年期国债收益率达到2%。收益率什么时候会开始损害股市？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":381069283,"tweetId":"381069283","gmtCreate":1612914187242,"gmtModify":1703766815204,"author":{"id":3559818694287768,"idStr":"3559818694287768","authorId":3559818694287768,"authorIdStr":"3559818694287768","name":"Onein","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f44222d7a58dc68aed056991c643c17","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Interesting!</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Interesting!</body></html>","text":"Interesting!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381069283","repostId":1114166601,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114166601","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612866163,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114166601?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-09 18:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?<blockquote>30年期国债收益率达到2%。收益率什么时候会开始损害股市？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114166601","media":"Barrons","summary":"After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first t","content":"After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will hurt the stock market.<blockquote>在长期国债收益率长期走高后，30年期国债收益率自Covid-19爆发以来首次攀升至2%以上。这让投资者询问债券收益率上升的更广泛趋势何时会损害股市。</blockquote>The central concern is that&nbsp;once Treasury yields climb high enough&nbsp;investors will want to buy safe bonds instead of stocks or high-yield debt. But it isn’t clear when that will occur, and the 30-year bond carries&nbsp;extra risk of losses as yields keep rising. When it comes to the 10-year note, a more popular benchmark,Wall Street consensus is hard to find:&nbsp;Strategists’ forecasts say 10-year Treasury yields may need to rise only to 1.75%, or as high as 5%, to make them more attractive than those riskier alternatives.<blockquote>最核心的担忧是，一旦美国国债收益率攀升到足够高的水平，投资者将希望购买安全债券，而不是股票或高收益债券。但目前尚不清楚这种情况何时会发生，而且随着收益率不断上升，30年期债券面临额外的损失风险。说到10年期国债，一个更受欢迎的基准,华尔街的共识很难找到：策略师的预测称，10年期国债收益率可能只需升至1.75%，或高达5%，就能使其比那些风险更高的替代品更具吸引力。</blockquote>Yields on long-term Treasuries have been rising steadily since late August, and more quickly since Nov. 9, whenPfizerand BioNTech announced an effective Covid-19 vaccine. The 30-year yield was hovering near 2% Monday after breaching that level in morning trading—up from 1.6% before the vaccine. The benchmark 10-year yield has climbed as well, rising to 1.2% Monday from 0.8% before the vaccine.<blockquote>自8月下旬以来，长期国债收益率一直在稳步上升，自11月9日辉瑞和BioNTech宣布推出有效的Covid-19疫苗以来，这种上升速度更快。30年期国债收益率在早盘突破该水平后，周一徘徊在2%附近，高于疫苗接种前的1.6%。基准10年期国债收益率也有所攀升，从疫苗接种前的0.8%升至周一的1.2%。</blockquote>Long-term yields had retreated from their morning highs by Monday afternoon amid concerns about Covid-19 vaccine distribution and the pace of global economic reopening, with the 10-year yield off one basis points (hundredth of a percentage point) and the 30-year yield down three basis points.<blockquote>由于对Covid-19疫苗分发和全球经济重新开放步伐的担忧，长期收益率到周一下午已从上午高点回落，10年期国债收益率下跌1个基点（百分之一个百分点），30年期国债收益率下跌3个基点。</blockquote>But the expectation remains for yields to keep climbing over coming weeks and months. And a key question is how high yields need to be to dent stock-market returns. Several Wall Street strategists have tackled that puzzle in recent notes.<blockquote>但预计未来几周和几个月收益率将继续攀升。一个关键问题是，收益率需要多高才能削弱股市回报。几位华尔街策略师在最近的报告中解决了这个难题。</blockquote>Almost 70% of S&amp;P 500 companies pay a higher yield than the 10-year note, wrote a team led by equity strategist Savita Subramanianin a recent note. That proportion would fall to 40% if companies keep their payouts at current levels and the Treasury yield rises to 1.75% by the end of this year, they found.<blockquote>股票策略师Savita Subramanian领导的团队在最近的一份报告中写道，近70%的标普500公司支付的收益率高于10年期国债。他们发现，如果企业将派息保持在当前水平，并且国债收益率到今年年底升至1.75%，这一比例将降至40%。</blockquote>That could start undermining the attractiveness of stocks as an income play; today the overall dividend yield on the S&amp;P 500 is 1.5%, higher than the 10-year Treasury payout. That has helped offset concerns about valuations that are higher than historical averages.<blockquote>这可能会开始削弱股票作为收入游戏的吸引力；如今，标普500的整体股息收益率为1.5%，高于10年期国债派息。这有助于抵消对估值高于历史平均水平的担忧。</blockquote>Yet the picture looks far better for stocks from a total-return perspective. The implied long-term return of the S&amp;P 500 is around 3%, the bank’s equity strategists wrote.<blockquote>然而，从总回报的角度来看，股票的情况要好得多。该银行的股票策略师写道，标普500的隐含长期回报率约为3%。</blockquote>Wall Street strategists don’t expect the 10-year note to be able to challenge that return soon. In a January outlook piece,Bank of America’sinterest-rate strategists predicted that 3% will be the benchmark yield’s peak during this expansion, implying yields won’t reach those levels until the Fed starts raising interest rates. And according to some of the bank’s valuation models, all else equal, stocks will look cheap compared to Treasuries until yields rise to 5%.<blockquote>华尔街策略师预计10年期国债不会很快挑战这一回报率。美国银行利率策略师在1月份的展望文章中预测，3%将是此次扩张期间基准收益率的峰值，这意味着在美联储开始加息之前收益率不会达到这些水平。根据该银行的一些估值模型，在其他条件相同的情况下，在收益率升至5%之前，与国债相比，股票看起来会很便宜。</blockquote>More important, a 3% return from the S&amp;P 500 will still outpace akey market gauge of inflation expectations over the next decade. That indicator, called the break-even inflation rate, has been driven higher by improving growth expectations as the U.S. recovers from the Covid-19 crisis. On Monday it hit 2.2%, the highest level since 2014.<blockquote>更重要的是，标普500 3%的回报率仍将超过未来十年通胀预期的关键市场指标。随着美国从Covid-19危机中复苏，增长预期改善，该指标被称为盈亏平衡通胀率，该指标已被推高。周一触及2.2%，为2014年以来的最高水平。</blockquote>The 10-year Treasury yield, in contrast, remains below market inflation forecasts over that period, and is expected to stay that way through the end of this year at least. Even higher inflation-adjusted yields may not hurt stocks, wrote Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Golub in a Feb. 8 note, as the boost stocks get from stronger economic growth should outweigh the bond market’s relative improvement in yield.<blockquote>相比之下，10年期国债收益率仍低于同期市场通胀预期，预计至少到今年年底仍将保持这种状态。瑞士信贷策略师Jonathan Golub在2月8日的一份报告中写道，即使通胀调整后的收益率上升也可能不会损害股市，因为经济增长强劲对股市的提振应该会超过债券市场收益率的相对改善。</blockquote>In another positive for stocks, rising yields aren’t negatively affecting large-cap U.S. companies’ balance sheets. The effective yield on the ICE BofA Corporate Index, a gauge of current borrowing costs for high-rated companies, remains at just 1.9% for a maturity of nearly 12 years. And last year’s record-setting flood of fixed-rate borrowing means that companies won’t need to refinance their debt for years.<blockquote>股市的另一个积极因素是，收益率上升并未对美国大型公司的资产负债表产生负面影响。ICE美国银行企业指数（衡量高评级公司当前借贷成本的指标）的有效收益率在近12年的期限内仍仅为1.9%。去年创纪录的固定利率借款洪流意味着企业多年来不需要为债务再融资。</blockquote>There is one way that rising rates are negatively affecting at least some stocks:&nbsp; Investors are less willing to wait for profit growth,Goldman Sachsstrategists wrote in a Feb. 7 note. Stocks that are sensitive to economic growth and “value” stocks that underperformed during the pandemic have outperformed since the 10-year yield climbed above 1%, they found, because investors are discounting future cash flows at a higher rate. The Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) has climbed 14% so far this year.<blockquote>高盛策略师在2月7日的一份报告中写道，利率上升至少会对某些股票产生负面影响：投资者不太愿意等待利润增长。他们发现，自10年期国债收益率攀升至1%以上以来，对经济增长敏感的股票和在疫情期间表现不佳的“价值”股票表现优于大盘，因为投资者正在以更高的利率贴现未来现金流。Russell 2000 Value ETF(IWN)今年迄今已上涨14%。</blockquote>Goldman strategists wrote that a quick jump in Treasury yields would be dangerous for the stock market as a whole. But the bank estimated that real damage would require yields to rise 36 basis points in the span of a month. That looks unlikely, considering the fact that it took yields about three months to climb that far during the latest attention-grabbing move higher.<blockquote>高盛策略师写道，美国国债收益率的快速跃升对整个股市来说将是危险的。但该行估计，真正的损害需要收益率在一个月内上升36个基点。考虑到在最近一次引人注目的走高过程中，收益率花了大约三个月的时间才攀升到如此程度，这看起来不太可能。</blockquote>Of course, the rise in yields will likely require some changes in the way that money managers who allocate cash across different markets make their decisions, strategists and investors say. Hedge fund D.E. Shaw recently found that long-term bonds should serve as a betterhedge against declines in the stock marketas yields rise.<blockquote>当然，策略师和投资者表示，收益率的上升可能需要在不同市场分配现金的基金经理的决策方式发生一些变化。对冲基金D.E肖最近发现，随着收益率上升，长期债券应该可以更好地对冲股市下跌。</blockquote>So bonds will likely become marginally more attractive in coming months. But it isn’t clear that such a shift will be enough to undermine stocks, especially as long-term bond returns are most at risk from rising yields. So while Treasuries could provide a better alternative to stocks some day, that process could take longer than investors might think.<blockquote>因此，未来几个月债券可能会变得更具吸引力。但目前尚不清楚这种转变是否足以削弱股市，特别是在长期债券回报因收益率上升而面临的风险最大的情况下。因此，尽管美国国债有一天可能会提供比股票更好的替代品，但这一过程可能需要比投资者想象的更长的时间。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?<blockquote>30年期国债收益率达到2%。收益率什么时候会开始损害股市？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?<blockquote>30年期国债收益率达到2%。收益率什么时候会开始损害股市？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-02-09 18:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAfter a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will hurt the stock market.<blockquote>在长期国债收益率长期走高后，30年期国债收益率自Covid-19爆发以来首次攀升至2%以上。这让投资者询问债券收益率上升的更广泛趋势何时会损害股市。</blockquote>The central concern is that&nbsp;once Treasury yields climb high enough&nbsp;investors will want to buy safe bonds instead of stocks or high-yield debt. But it isn’t clear when that will occur, and the 30-year bond carries&nbsp;extra risk of losses as yields keep rising. When it comes to the 10-year note, a more popular benchmark,Wall Street consensus is hard to find:&nbsp;Strategists’ forecasts say 10-year Treasury yields may need to rise only to 1.75%, or as high as 5%, to make them more attractive than those riskier alternatives.<blockquote>最核心的担忧是，一旦美国国债收益率攀升到足够高的水平，投资者将希望购买安全债券，而不是股票或高收益债券。但目前尚不清楚这种情况何时会发生，而且随着收益率不断上升，30年期债券面临额外的损失风险。说到10年期国债，一个更受欢迎的基准,华尔街的共识很难找到：策略师的预测称，10年期国债收益率可能只需升至1.75%，或高达5%，就能使其比那些风险更高的替代品更具吸引力。</blockquote>Yields on long-term Treasuries have been rising steadily since late August, and more quickly since Nov. 9, whenPfizerand BioNTech announced an effective Covid-19 vaccine. The 30-year yield was hovering near 2% Monday after breaching that level in morning trading—up from 1.6% before the vaccine. The benchmark 10-year yield has climbed as well, rising to 1.2% Monday from 0.8% before the vaccine.<blockquote>自8月下旬以来，长期国债收益率一直在稳步上升，自11月9日辉瑞和BioNTech宣布推出有效的Covid-19疫苗以来，这种上升速度更快。30年期国债收益率在早盘突破该水平后，周一徘徊在2%附近，高于疫苗接种前的1.6%。基准10年期国债收益率也有所攀升，从疫苗接种前的0.8%升至周一的1.2%。</blockquote>Long-term yields had retreated from their morning highs by Monday afternoon amid concerns about Covid-19 vaccine distribution and the pace of global economic reopening, with the 10-year yield off one basis points (hundredth of a percentage point) and the 30-year yield down three basis points.<blockquote>由于对Covid-19疫苗分发和全球经济重新开放步伐的担忧，长期收益率到周一下午已从上午高点回落，10年期国债收益率下跌1个基点（百分之一个百分点），30年期国债收益率下跌3个基点。</blockquote>But the expectation remains for yields to keep climbing over coming weeks and months. And a key question is how high yields need to be to dent stock-market returns. Several Wall Street strategists have tackled that puzzle in recent notes.<blockquote>但预计未来几周和几个月收益率将继续攀升。一个关键问题是，收益率需要多高才能削弱股市回报。几位华尔街策略师在最近的报告中解决了这个难题。</blockquote>Almost 70% of S&amp;P 500 companies pay a higher yield than the 10-year note, wrote a team led by equity strategist Savita Subramanianin a recent note. That proportion would fall to 40% if companies keep their payouts at current levels and the Treasury yield rises to 1.75% by the end of this year, they found.<blockquote>股票策略师Savita Subramanian领导的团队在最近的一份报告中写道，近70%的标普500公司支付的收益率高于10年期国债。他们发现，如果企业将派息保持在当前水平，并且国债收益率到今年年底升至1.75%，这一比例将降至40%。</blockquote>That could start undermining the attractiveness of stocks as an income play; today the overall dividend yield on the S&amp;P 500 is 1.5%, higher than the 10-year Treasury payout. That has helped offset concerns about valuations that are higher than historical averages.<blockquote>这可能会开始削弱股票作为收入游戏的吸引力；如今，标普500的整体股息收益率为1.5%，高于10年期国债派息。这有助于抵消对估值高于历史平均水平的担忧。</blockquote>Yet the picture looks far better for stocks from a total-return perspective. The implied long-term return of the S&amp;P 500 is around 3%, the bank’s equity strategists wrote.<blockquote>然而，从总回报的角度来看，股票的情况要好得多。该银行的股票策略师写道，标普500的隐含长期回报率约为3%。</blockquote>Wall Street strategists don’t expect the 10-year note to be able to challenge that return soon. In a January outlook piece,Bank of America’sinterest-rate strategists predicted that 3% will be the benchmark yield’s peak during this expansion, implying yields won’t reach those levels until the Fed starts raising interest rates. And according to some of the bank’s valuation models, all else equal, stocks will look cheap compared to Treasuries until yields rise to 5%.<blockquote>华尔街策略师预计10年期国债不会很快挑战这一回报率。美国银行利率策略师在1月份的展望文章中预测，3%将是此次扩张期间基准收益率的峰值，这意味着在美联储开始加息之前收益率不会达到这些水平。根据该银行的一些估值模型，在其他条件相同的情况下，在收益率升至5%之前，与国债相比，股票看起来会很便宜。</blockquote>More important, a 3% return from the S&amp;P 500 will still outpace akey market gauge of inflation expectations over the next decade. That indicator, called the break-even inflation rate, has been driven higher by improving growth expectations as the U.S. recovers from the Covid-19 crisis. On Monday it hit 2.2%, the highest level since 2014.<blockquote>更重要的是，标普500 3%的回报率仍将超过未来十年通胀预期的关键市场指标。随着美国从Covid-19危机中复苏，增长预期改善，该指标被称为盈亏平衡通胀率，该指标已被推高。周一触及2.2%，为2014年以来的最高水平。</blockquote>The 10-year Treasury yield, in contrast, remains below market inflation forecasts over that period, and is expected to stay that way through the end of this year at least. Even higher inflation-adjusted yields may not hurt stocks, wrote Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Golub in a Feb. 8 note, as the boost stocks get from stronger economic growth should outweigh the bond market’s relative improvement in yield.<blockquote>相比之下，10年期国债收益率仍低于同期市场通胀预期，预计至少到今年年底仍将保持这种状态。瑞士信贷策略师Jonathan Golub在2月8日的一份报告中写道，即使通胀调整后的收益率上升也可能不会损害股市，因为经济增长强劲对股市的提振应该会超过债券市场收益率的相对改善。</blockquote>In another positive for stocks, rising yields aren’t negatively affecting large-cap U.S. companies’ balance sheets. The effective yield on the ICE BofA Corporate Index, a gauge of current borrowing costs for high-rated companies, remains at just 1.9% for a maturity of nearly 12 years. And last year’s record-setting flood of fixed-rate borrowing means that companies won’t need to refinance their debt for years.<blockquote>股市的另一个积极因素是，收益率上升并未对美国大型公司的资产负债表产生负面影响。ICE美国银行企业指数（衡量高评级公司当前借贷成本的指标）的有效收益率在近12年的期限内仍仅为1.9%。去年创纪录的固定利率借款洪流意味着企业多年来不需要为债务再融资。</blockquote>There is one way that rising rates are negatively affecting at least some stocks:&nbsp; Investors are less willing to wait for profit growth,Goldman Sachsstrategists wrote in a Feb. 7 note. Stocks that are sensitive to economic growth and “value” stocks that underperformed during the pandemic have outperformed since the 10-year yield climbed above 1%, they found, because investors are discounting future cash flows at a higher rate. The Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) has climbed 14% so far this year.<blockquote>高盛策略师在2月7日的一份报告中写道，利率上升至少会对某些股票产生负面影响：投资者不太愿意等待利润增长。他们发现，自10年期国债收益率攀升至1%以上以来，对经济增长敏感的股票和在疫情期间表现不佳的“价值”股票表现优于大盘，因为投资者正在以更高的利率贴现未来现金流。Russell 2000 Value ETF(IWN)今年迄今已上涨14%。</blockquote>Goldman strategists wrote that a quick jump in Treasury yields would be dangerous for the stock market as a whole. But the bank estimated that real damage would require yields to rise 36 basis points in the span of a month. That looks unlikely, considering the fact that it took yields about three months to climb that far during the latest attention-grabbing move higher.<blockquote>高盛策略师写道，美国国债收益率的快速跃升对整个股市来说将是危险的。但该行估计，真正的损害需要收益率在一个月内上升36个基点。考虑到在最近一次引人注目的走高过程中，收益率花了大约三个月的时间才攀升到如此程度，这看起来不太可能。</blockquote>Of course, the rise in yields will likely require some changes in the way that money managers who allocate cash across different markets make their decisions, strategists and investors say. Hedge fund D.E. Shaw recently found that long-term bonds should serve as a betterhedge against declines in the stock marketas yields rise.<blockquote>当然，策略师和投资者表示，收益率的上升可能需要在不同市场分配现金的基金经理的决策方式发生一些变化。对冲基金D.E肖最近发现，随着收益率上升，长期债券应该可以更好地对冲股市下跌。</blockquote>So bonds will likely become marginally more attractive in coming months. But it isn’t clear that such a shift will be enough to undermine stocks, especially as long-term bond returns are most at risk from rising yields. So while Treasuries could provide a better alternative to stocks some day, that process could take longer than investors might think.<blockquote>因此，未来几个月债券可能会变得更具吸引力。但目前尚不清楚这种转变是否足以削弱股市，特别是在长期债券回报因收益率上升而面临的风险最大的情况下。因此，尽管美国国债有一天可能会提供比股票更好的替代品，但这一过程可能需要比投资者想象的更长的时间。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-30-year-treasury-just-hit-2-when-will-they-start-hurting-the-stock-market-51612804834?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-30-year-treasury-just-hit-2-when-will-they-start-hurting-the-stock-market-51612804834?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114166601","content_text":"After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will hurt the stock market.The central concern is that once Treasury yields climb high enough investors will want to buy safe bonds instead of stocks or high-yield debt. But it isn’t clear when that will occur, and the 30-year bond carries extra risk of losses as yields keep rising. When it comes to the 10-year note, a more popular benchmark,Wall Street consensus is hard to find: Strategists’ forecasts say 10-year Treasury yields may need to rise only to 1.75%, or as high as 5%, to make them more attractive than those riskier alternatives.Yields on long-term Treasuries have been rising steadily since late August, and more quickly since Nov. 9, whenPfizerand BioNTech announced an effective Covid-19 vaccine. The 30-year yield was hovering near 2% Monday after breaching that level in morning trading—up from 1.6% before the vaccine. The benchmark 10-year yield has climbed as well, rising to 1.2% Monday from 0.8% before the vaccine.Long-term yields had retreated from their morning highs by Monday afternoon amid concerns about Covid-19 vaccine distribution and the pace of global economic reopening, with the 10-year yield off one basis points (hundredth of a percentage point) and the 30-year yield down three basis points.But the expectation remains for yields to keep climbing over coming weeks and months. And a key question is how high yields need to be to dent stock-market returns. Several Wall Street strategists have tackled that puzzle in recent notes.Almost 70% of S&P 500 companies pay a higher yield than the 10-year note, wrote a team led by equity strategist Savita Subramanianin a recent note. That proportion would fall to 40% if companies keep their payouts at current levels and the Treasury yield rises to 1.75% by the end of this year, they found.That could start undermining the attractiveness of stocks as an income play; today the overall dividend yield on the S&P 500 is 1.5%, higher than the 10-year Treasury payout. That has helped offset concerns about valuations that are higher than historical averages.Yet the picture looks far better for stocks from a total-return perspective. The implied long-term return of the S&P 500 is around 3%, the bank’s equity strategists wrote.Wall Street strategists don’t expect the 10-year note to be able to challenge that return soon. In a January outlook piece,Bank of America’sinterest-rate strategists predicted that 3% will be the benchmark yield’s peak during this expansion, implying yields won’t reach those levels until the Fed starts raising interest rates. And according to some of the bank’s valuation models, all else equal, stocks will look cheap compared to Treasuries until yields rise to 5%.More important, a 3% return from the S&P 500 will still outpace akey market gauge of inflation expectations over the next decade. That indicator, called the break-even inflation rate, has been driven higher by improving growth expectations as the U.S. recovers from the Covid-19 crisis. On Monday it hit 2.2%, the highest level since 2014.The 10-year Treasury yield, in contrast, remains below market inflation forecasts over that period, and is expected to stay that way through the end of this year at least. Even higher inflation-adjusted yields may not hurt stocks, wrote Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Golub in a Feb. 8 note, as the boost stocks get from stronger economic growth should outweigh the bond market’s relative improvement in yield.In another positive for stocks, rising yields aren’t negatively affecting large-cap U.S. companies’ balance sheets. The effective yield on the ICE BofA Corporate Index, a gauge of current borrowing costs for high-rated companies, remains at just 1.9% for a maturity of nearly 12 years. And last year’s record-setting flood of fixed-rate borrowing means that companies won’t need to refinance their debt for years.There is one way that rising rates are negatively affecting at least some stocks:  Investors are less willing to wait for profit growth,Goldman Sachsstrategists wrote in a Feb. 7 note. Stocks that are sensitive to economic growth and “value” stocks that underperformed during the pandemic have outperformed since the 10-year yield climbed above 1%, they found, because investors are discounting future cash flows at a higher rate. The Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) has climbed 14% so far this year.Goldman strategists wrote that a quick jump in Treasury yields would be dangerous for the stock market as a whole. But the bank estimated that real damage would require yields to rise 36 basis points in the span of a month. That looks unlikely, considering the fact that it took yields about three months to climb that far during the latest attention-grabbing move higher.Of course, the rise in yields will likely require some changes in the way that money managers who allocate cash across different markets make their decisions, strategists and investors say. Hedge fund D.E. Shaw recently found that long-term bonds should serve as a betterhedge against declines in the stock marketas yields rise.So bonds will likely become marginally more attractive in coming months. But it isn’t clear that such a shift will be enough to undermine stocks, especially as long-term bond returns are most at risk from rising yields. So while Treasuries could provide a better alternative to stocks some day, that process could take longer than investors might think.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/381069283"}