JoeKoh
2021-02-16
Great
With Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy<blockquote>随着拜登的崛起，华尔街经济学家越来越看好美国经济</blockquote>
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The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington and millions of families were about to lose crucial benefits.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>2020年底，饱受新冠疫情蹂躏的美国经济濒临陷入双底衰退。疫情正在加剧，僵局使华盛顿陷入瘫痪，数百万家庭即将失去重要福利。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward two months, and the economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>快进两个月，经济仍在挣扎，但对复苏的信心正在迅速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Economists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家正在迅速上调GDP和失业率预测，并将美联储能够提高最低利率的日期提前。高盛预测美国经济将以三十多年来最快的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> The renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the health crisis is easing and Uncle Sam is coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.</p><p><blockquote>重新燃起的乐观情绪是由两个主要因素推动的：健康危机正在缓解，山姆大叔正在提供惊人数量的援助——比几个月前似乎多了数千亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> After supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.</p><p><blockquote>根据穆迪分析公司的数据，继去年提供4万亿美元的救助后，华盛顿预计将在2021年再提供2万亿美元的赤字融资支持。这相当于美国年度GDP的四分之一以上。</blockquote></p><p> \"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪(Mark Zandi)告诉CNN Business：“这是大量的经济动力。”</blockquote></p><p> The turning point happened last month when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.</p><p><blockquote>转折点发生在上个月，当时民主党在佐治亚州的决选中以微弱优势控制了美国参议院。这为乔·拜登总统1.9万亿美元的美国救援计划开辟了道路，该计划包括1400美元的刺激支票、提高失业救济金以及向州和地方政府提供3500亿美元的生命线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Summer mini-boom'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“夏季迷你热潮”</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p><p><blockquote>在佐治亚州选举之前，赞迪认为美国经济要到2023年春季或夏季才能恢复充分就业（强劲的劳动力市场，失业率为4%）。现在，他预计这一成就将在明年春天实现，这与财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的预测相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行经济学家在最近给客户的一份报告中写道，“超级财政政策”意味着美国经济增长快于其他国家的论点“似乎日益强烈”。</blockquote></p><p> Oxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家Gregory Daco呼吁美国出现“夏季小繁荣”，2021年GDP增长5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"</p><p><blockquote>同样，杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家表示，“爆炸性的收入增长（得益于财政刺激）可能会推动美国GDP今年增长6.4%，明年增长近5%。”</blockquote></p><p> \"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞在最近的一份报告中告诉客户：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是我们的预测可能过于保守。”他指出，其观点仅纳入了拜登计划的1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，高盛本周早些时候将2021年GDP预期上调至6.8%，因为这家华尔街银行现在假设额外财政救助为1.5万亿美元，高于此前的1.1万亿美元。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，如果高盛的预测成真，这将是美国自1989年以来最快的年度GDP增长。</blockquote></p><p> The rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>乐观的GDP预测远高于美联储的要求。去年12月，美联储预计2021年GDP增长仅为4.2%，并表示失业率要到2023年才会降至4%以下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-dip recession averted</b></p><p><blockquote><b>避免了双底衰退</b></blockquote></p><p> The Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储对经济预测趋于保守。而且，至关重要的是，美联储的预测是在DC政治功能失调给美国经济蒙上阴影之际发布的。</blockquote></p><p> For months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，共和党和民主党试图就延长计划失效的关键失业和驱逐福利以及向小企业提供更多可原谅贷款达成协议，但未能达成协议。然后当最终达成协议时，前总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要炸毁它。</blockquote></p><p> At the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.</p><p><blockquote>在最后一刻，特朗普将9000亿美元的救助计划签署成为法律，避免了经济灾难。</blockquote></p><p> \"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“如果没有这一点，我们将陷入双底衰退。”</blockquote></p><p> Slammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States added just 49,000 jobs in January.</p><p><blockquote>受疫情冲击，美国经济一瘸一拐地走到2020年底，今年开局缓慢。12月，雇主自春季以来首次裁员。美国1月份仅增加了49,000个就业岗位。</blockquote></p><p> Jobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.</p><p><blockquote>申请失业救济人数仍然高得惊人。仅上周就有793,000名美国人首次申请失业救济。就背景而言，这高于大衰退的最严重水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vaccines to the rescue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>疫苗拯救生命</b></blockquote></p><p> But there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情仍有一线希望。尽管Covid死亡人数仍然高得难以想象，但住院人数和病例数已经下降。</blockquote></p><p> Critically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，冠状病毒疫苗的推出正在加速。据摩根士丹利称，在总共分发的6600万支疫苗中，约70%已经接种。</blockquote></p><p> And Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.</p><p><blockquote>美国顶级传染病专家安东尼·福奇博士周四告诉NBC新闻，美国可能能够在夏季中期或结束前为大多数美国人接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些使得包括加利福尼亚、纽约和新泽西在内的州放松了对餐馆和其他小企业的健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> That's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说疫情已经结束。事实上，一个风险是，新的Covid-19变种迫使美国各州和城市再次收紧健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Low-wage workers are still hurting badly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>低薪工人仍然受到严重伤害</b></blockquote></p><p> Against this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>在此背景下，许多经济学家敦促华盛顿推进激进的财政刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> \"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“请把脚平放在油门上。”“政策制定101说，错误在于做得太多，而不是做得太少。”</blockquote></p><p> Doing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.</p><p><blockquote>做得太少可能会加剧美国的不平等问题。这是因为与之前的衰退相比，这次衰退对餐馆、儿童保育和酒店业等遭受重创行业的低收入工人造成了不成比例的伤害。</blockquote></p><p> Employment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据Opportunity Insights经济跟踪系统的数据，低工资工人（年收入低于27,000美元的人）的就业水平仍下降了20%以上。相比之下，年收入超过6万美元的人的就业水平高于危机前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的经济学家在给客户的一份报告中写道：“如果收入和种族群体之间的充分就业情况不明显，拜登的团队就不太可能为实现充分就业而开香槟。”</blockquote></p><p> However, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，前美联储官员、现任Quill Intelligence首席执行官丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布斯(Danielle DiMartino Booth)担心，专注于提供收入，而不是投资基础设施和再培训工人，会让该国沉迷于刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯说：“经济将变成这个依赖患者，总是等待下一次注射。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Bring it on'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“来吧”</b></blockquote></p><p> Some economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington overheats the economy by injecting too much support.</p><p><blockquote>包括前财政部长拉里·萨默斯在内的一些经济学家警告说，华盛顿注入过多支持可能会导致经济过热。</blockquote></p><p> \"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯表示：“未来几个月可能会出现相当大的通胀恐慌，这将考验债券市场和美联储。”</blockquote></p><p> And that in turn would spook the red-hot stock market.</p><p><blockquote>这反过来又会惊动炙手可热的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Fed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.</p><p><blockquote>美联储观察人士正在提前确定美联储何时能够结束紧急政策的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Citing \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.</p><p><blockquote>高盛援引“通胀前景走强的迹象”，目前预计美联储将在2022年初开始“缩减”资产购买规模，并在2024年上半年加息。</blockquote></p><p> Zandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.</p><p><blockquote>赞迪并没有因为通货膨胀而失眠，主要是因为美国还远未实现充分就业。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这是一种被大大夸大的担忧，”他说。“来吧。十多年来，我们最大的问题一直是低通胀。更高的通胀将是一个高级问题。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy<blockquote>随着拜登的崛起，华尔街经济学家越来越看好美国经济</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith Biden going big, Wall Street economists are growing bullish on the US economy<blockquote>随着拜登的崛起，华尔街经济学家越来越看好美国经济</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 18:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business) </b>The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington and millions of families were about to lose crucial benefits.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）</b>2020年底，饱受新冠疫情蹂躏的美国经济濒临陷入双底衰退。疫情正在加剧，僵局使华盛顿陷入瘫痪，数百万家庭即将失去重要福利。</blockquote></p><p> Fast forward two months, and the economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>快进两个月，经济仍在挣扎，但对复苏的信心正在迅速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Economists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家正在迅速上调GDP和失业率预测，并将美联储能够提高最低利率的日期提前。高盛预测美国经济将以三十多年来最快的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> The renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the health crisis is easing and Uncle Sam is coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.</p><p><blockquote>重新燃起的乐观情绪是由两个主要因素推动的：健康危机正在缓解，山姆大叔正在提供惊人数量的援助——比几个月前似乎多了数千亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> After supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.</p><p><blockquote>根据穆迪分析公司的数据，继去年提供4万亿美元的救助后，华盛顿预计将在2021年再提供2万亿美元的赤字融资支持。这相当于美国年度GDP的四分之一以上。</blockquote></p><p> \"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪(Mark Zandi)告诉CNN Business：“这是大量的经济动力。”</blockquote></p><p> The turning point happened last month when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.</p><p><blockquote>转折点发生在上个月，当时民主党在佐治亚州的决选中以微弱优势控制了美国参议院。这为乔·拜登总统1.9万亿美元的美国救援计划开辟了道路，该计划包括1400美元的刺激支票、提高失业救济金以及向州和地方政府提供3500亿美元的生命线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Summer mini-boom'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“夏季迷你热潮”</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.</p><p><blockquote>在佐治亚州选举之前，赞迪认为美国经济要到2023年春季或夏季才能恢复充分就业（强劲的劳动力市场，失业率为4%）。现在，他预计这一成就将在明年春天实现，这与财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的预测相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> \"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行经济学家在最近给客户的一份报告中写道，“超级财政政策”意味着美国经济增长快于其他国家的论点“似乎日益强烈”。</blockquote></p><p> Oxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家Gregory Daco呼吁美国出现“夏季小繁荣”，2021年GDP增长5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"</p><p><blockquote>同样，杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家表示，“爆炸性的收入增长（得益于财政刺激）可能会推动美国GDP今年增长6.4%，明年增长近5%。”</blockquote></p><p> \"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞在最近的一份报告中告诉客户：“如果说有什么不同的话，那就是我们的预测可能过于保守。”他指出，其观点仅纳入了拜登计划的1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，高盛本周早些时候将2021年GDP预期上调至6.8%，因为这家华尔街银行现在假设额外财政救助为1.5万亿美元，高于此前的1.1万亿美元。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，如果高盛的预测成真，这将是美国自1989年以来最快的年度GDP增长。</blockquote></p><p> The rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>乐观的GDP预测远高于美联储的要求。去年12月，美联储预计2021年GDP增长仅为4.2%，并表示失业率要到2023年才会降至4%以下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-dip recession averted</b></p><p><blockquote><b>避免了双底衰退</b></blockquote></p><p> The Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.</p><p><blockquote>美联储对经济预测趋于保守。而且，至关重要的是，美联储的预测是在DC政治功能失调给美国经济蒙上阴影之际发布的。</blockquote></p><p> For months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，共和党和民主党试图就延长计划失效的关键失业和驱逐福利以及向小企业提供更多可原谅贷款达成协议，但未能达成协议。然后当最终达成协议时，前总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要炸毁它。</blockquote></p><p> At the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.</p><p><blockquote>在最后一刻，特朗普将9000亿美元的救助计划签署成为法律，避免了经济灾难。</blockquote></p><p> \"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“如果没有这一点，我们将陷入双底衰退。”</blockquote></p><p> Slammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States added just 49,000 jobs in January.</p><p><blockquote>受疫情冲击，美国经济一瘸一拐地走到2020年底，今年开局缓慢。12月，雇主自春季以来首次裁员。美国1月份仅增加了49,000个就业岗位。</blockquote></p><p> Jobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.</p><p><blockquote>申请失业救济人数仍然高得惊人。仅上周就有793,000名美国人首次申请失业救济。就背景而言，这高于大衰退的最严重水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vaccines to the rescue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>疫苗拯救生命</b></blockquote></p><p> But there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情仍有一线希望。尽管Covid死亡人数仍然高得难以想象，但住院人数和病例数已经下降。</blockquote></p><p> Critically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，冠状病毒疫苗的推出正在加速。据摩根士丹利称，在总共分发的6600万支疫苗中，约70%已经接种。</blockquote></p><p> And Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.</p><p><blockquote>美国顶级传染病专家安东尼·福奇博士周四告诉NBC新闻，美国可能能够在夏季中期或结束前为大多数美国人接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些使得包括加利福尼亚、纽约和新泽西在内的州放松了对餐馆和其他小企业的健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> That's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>这并不是说疫情已经结束。事实上，一个风险是，新的Covid-19变种迫使美国各州和城市再次收紧健康限制。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Low-wage workers are still hurting badly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>低薪工人仍然受到严重伤害</b></blockquote></p><p> Against this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>在此背景下，许多经济学家敦促华盛顿推进激进的财政刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p> \"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"</p><p><blockquote>穆迪经济学家赞迪表示：“请把脚平放在油门上。”“政策制定101说，错误在于做得太多，而不是做得太少。”</blockquote></p><p> Doing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.</p><p><blockquote>做得太少可能会加剧美国的不平等问题。这是因为与之前的衰退相比，这次衰退对餐馆、儿童保育和酒店业等遭受重创行业的低收入工人造成了不成比例的伤害。</blockquote></p><p> Employment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.</p><p><blockquote>根据Opportunity Insights经济跟踪系统的数据，低工资工人（年收入低于27,000美元的人）的就业水平仍下降了20%以上。相比之下，年收入超过6万美元的人的就业水平高于危机前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> \"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的经济学家在给客户的一份报告中写道：“如果收入和种族群体之间的充分就业情况不明显，拜登的团队就不太可能为实现充分就业而开香槟。”</blockquote></p><p> However, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，前美联储官员、现任Quill Intelligence首席执行官丹妮尔·迪马蒂诺·布斯(Danielle DiMartino Booth)担心，专注于提供收入，而不是投资基础设施和再培训工人，会让该国沉迷于刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> \"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯说：“经济将变成这个依赖患者，总是等待下一次注射。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Bring it on'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“来吧”</b></blockquote></p><p> Some economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington overheats the economy by injecting too much support.</p><p><blockquote>包括前财政部长拉里·萨默斯在内的一些经济学家警告说，华盛顿注入过多支持可能会导致经济过热。</blockquote></p><p> \"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.</p><p><blockquote>布斯表示：“未来几个月可能会出现相当大的通胀恐慌，这将考验债券市场和美联储。”</blockquote></p><p> And that in turn would spook the red-hot stock market.</p><p><blockquote>这反过来又会惊动炙手可热的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Fed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.</p><p><blockquote>美联储观察人士正在提前确定美联储何时能够结束紧急政策的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Citing \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.</p><p><blockquote>高盛援引“通胀前景走强的迹象”，目前预计美联储将在2022年初开始“缩减”资产购买规模，并在2024年上半年加息。</blockquote></p><p> Zandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.</p><p><blockquote>赞迪并没有因为通货膨胀而失眠，主要是因为美国还远未实现充分就业。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这是一种被大大夸大的担忧，”他说。“来吧。十多年来，我们最大的问题一直是低通胀。更高的通胀将是一个高级问题。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/economy/economy-jobs-biden-stimulus/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/11/economy/economy-jobs-biden-stimulus/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108705396","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) The Covid-ravaged American economy was on the verge of slipping into a double-dip recession at the end of 2020. The pandemic was intensifying,gridlock paralyzed Washington and millions of families were about to lose crucial benefits.\nFast forward two months, and the economy is still struggling-- but confidence in the recovery is growing, rapidly.\nEconomists are swiftly upgrading their GDP and unemployment forecasts and pulling forward the date when the Federal Reserve will be able to lift rock-bottom interest rates. Goldman Sachs is predicting the US economy will grow at the fastest clip in more than three decades.\nThe renewed optimism is being driven by two major factors: the health crisis is easing and Uncle Sam is coming to the rescue with staggering amounts of aid-- hundreds of billions more than seemed to be in the cards just months ago.\nAfter supplying $4 trillion of relief last year, Washington is expected to pump in another $2 trillion of deficit-financed support in 2021, according to Moody's Analytics. That represents more than a quarter of annual US GDP.\n\"That is a lot of economic juice,\" Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.\nThe turning point happened last month when Democrats took narrow control of the US Senate by sweeping the runoff races in Georgia. That opened a path for President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which features $1,400 stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits and a $350 billion lifeline to state and local governments.\n'Summer mini-boom'\nBefore the Georgia elections, Zandi didn't think the US economy would return to full employment (a strong labor market with 4% unemployment) until the spring or summer of 2023. Now, he expects that achievement to happen next spring, echoing a forecast by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.\n\"Super-charged fiscal policy\" means the argument for the US economy growing faster than its peers \"seems to get stronger day-by-day,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a recent report to clients.\nOxford Economics chief US economist Gregory Daco is calling for a \"summer mini-boom\" in the United States and 5.9% GDP growth in 2021.\nLikewise, Jefferies economists say \"explosive income growth (courtesy of fiscal stimulus) is likely to propel US GDP 6.4% higher this year and nearly 5% next year.\"\n\"If anything, our forecast might be too conservative,\" Jefferies told clients in a recent note, pointing out that its view incorporates just $1 trillion of the Biden plan.\nIndeed, Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2021 GDP forecast to 6.8% earlier this week because the Wall Street bank now assumes additional fiscal relief of $1.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion previously. If Goldman's prediction comes true, it would be the fastest annual GDP growth for the United States since 1989,according to the St. Louis Fed.\nThe rosy GDP forecasts are well above what the Federal Reserve is calling for. In December, the Fed expected 2021 GDP growth of just 4.2% and said unemployment wouldn't slip below 4% until 2023.\nDouble-dip recession averted\nThe Fed tends to be conservative with its economic forecasts. And, crucially, the Fed forecast was released at a time when political dysfunction in DC was casting a shadow over the US economy.\nFor months, Republicans and Democrats tried and failed to reach a deal on extending crucial unemployment and eviction benefits scheduled to lapse and providing more forgivable loans to small businesses. And then when a deal was finally reached, former President Donald Trump threatened to blow it up.\nAt the last minute, Trump signed the $900 billion relief package into law, averting economic disaster.\n\"Without that, we would be in a double dip recession,\" said Zandi, the Moody's economist.\nSlammed by the pandemic, the US economy limped to the end of 2020 and started this year slowly. In December, employers cut jobs in for the first time since the spring. And the United States added just 49,000 jobs in January.\nJobless claims remain alarmingly high. Another 793,000 Americans filed for first time unemployment benefits last week alone. For context, that is above the worst levels of the Great Recession.\nVaccines to the rescue\nBut there are glimmers of hope on the pandemic. Although Covid deaths remain unthinkably high, hospitalizations and cases have retreated.\nCritically, the rollout of coronavirus vaccines is accelerating. Out of a total of 66 million vaccines distributed, about 70% have been administered, according to Morgan Stanley.\nAnd Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert,told NBC News Thursday that the United States may be able to vaccinate most Americans by the middle or end of summer.\nAll of this has allowed states including California, New York and New Jersey to relax health restrictions crushing restaurants and other small businesses.\nThat's not to say the pandemic is over. In fact,one risk is that new Covid-19 variants force US states and cities to once again tighten health restrictions.\nLow-wage workers are still hurting badly\nAgainst this backdrop, many economists are urging Washington to push ahead with plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus.\n\"Foot flat on the accelerator, please,\" Zandi, the Moody's economist said. \"Policymaking 101 says err on the side of doing too much, rather than too little.\"\nDoing too little risks worsening America's inequality problem. That's because this recession, more than prior ones, disproportionately hurt low-income workers in hard-hit sectors such as restaurants, childcare and hospitality.\nEmployment levels of low-wage workers (those making less than $27,000 per year) is still down more than 20%, according to the Opportunity Insights Economic tracker. By contrast, employment levels of those making more than $60,000 per year are above pre-crisis levels.\n\"Biden's team is unlikely to break out the champagne over reaching full employment if it isn't evident across income and racial groups,\" economists at Bank of America wrote in a report to clients.\nHowever, Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former Fed official who is now CEO of Quill Intelligence, worries the focus on providing income, instead of investing in infrastructure and reskilling workers, will make the country addicted to stimulus.\n\"The economy is going to turn into this dependent patient, always waiting for the next injection,\" Booth said.\n'Bring it on'\nSome economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned there is a risk that Washington overheats the economy by injecting too much support.\n\"You could have quite the inflation scare in the next few months that will test the bond market and the Fed,\" Booth said.\nAnd that in turn would spook the red-hot stock market.\nFed watchers are moving up their timelines for when the central bank will be able to end its emergency policies.\nCiting \"signs of a firmer inflation outlook,\" Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start \"tapering\" its asset purchases in early 2022 and to raise interest rates in the first half of 2024.\nZandi isn't losing sleep over inflation, mostly because the United States is far from full employment.\n\"It's a vastly overstated worry,\" he said. \"Bring it on. Our biggest problem for more than a decade has been low inflation. Higher inflation would be a high-class problem to have.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/385046577"}
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