Again._老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-02-17

Again.

What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>什么预示着股市牛市的顶部？利率不上升</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":385660128,"tweetId":"385660128","gmtCreate":1613543640464,"gmtModify":1631891936801,"author":{"id":3574772553430673,"idStr":"3574772553430673","authorId":3574772553430673,"authorIdStr":"3574772553430673","name":"Nickmons","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f756e4895fc35fdbf6ea956e949e5","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Again.</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Again.</body></html>","text":"Again.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385660128","repostId":1184726502,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184726502","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613542262,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1184726502?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 14:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>什么预示着股市牛市的顶部？利率不上升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184726502","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year\nCHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will n","content":"Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year<blockquote>今年迄今为止，美国国债收益率大幅上升</blockquote> CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.<blockquote>北卡罗来纳州教堂山——利率上升不会破坏这轮牛市。</blockquote> That’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.<blockquote>这是至关重要的信息，因为利率在过去六个月中大幅上升，尤其是在过去几周。例如，10 年期国债收益率较去年 8 月上涨了一倍多，从 0.52% 升至目前的 1.20%。这一增长的很大一部分——27 个基点——是自今年年初以来出现的。</blockquote> I am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my&nbsp;column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.<blockquote>我之所以重新讨论这个话题，是因为许多读者显然不相信我本月早些时候的专栏文章，即利率与股市回报之间没有历史相关性。正如你们中的一些人指出的，该专栏关注的是在分析20世纪20年代的所有数据时出现的摘要模式。这与特别关注牛市顶部的利率趋势不同。这就是我在本专栏中关注的内容。</blockquote> Since 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actuallylowerthan where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.<blockquote>根据 Ned Davis Research 维护的日历，自 1962 年以来（我的 10 年期国债收益率数据库可以追溯到 1962 年），已经发生了 17 次熊市。在这 17 个案例中，有 10 个案例表明，熊市开始时 10 年期国债收益率实际上是降低比三个月前的水平还要高。换句话说，在一半以上的熊市中，10 年期国债收益率在之前牛市的最后三个月有所下降。</blockquote> You shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.<blockquote>不过，你不应该从这个结果中得出结论，除非利率下降，否则熊市不会发生。请注意，在这 17 个熊市中的 7 个熊市中，利率在熊市开始前的三个月内上升。得出的恰当结论是，利率趋势是牛市何时结束的不可靠指南。</blockquote> What about the Fed Funds rate?<blockquote>联邦基金利率呢？</blockquote> This conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.<blockquote>这一结论与我们多年来反复被告知的情况背道而驰，因此我想通过关注联邦基金利率来再次核实这一结论。这是美联储公开市场委员会直接设定的短期利率，多年来一些分析师认为，这是股市投资者最应该关注的利率。例如，根据埃德森-古尔德（Edson Gould）著名的 “三步走和绊倒法则”（three steps and a stumble rule），美联储连续三次加息（“三步走”）后，股市就会下跌（“绊倒”）。</blockquote> Gould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.<blockquote>当然，古尔德是 20 世纪 60 年代和 70 年代最著名的技术分析师之一。然而，无论他的规则在前几十年有多大的有效性，自 20 世纪 80 年代初以来，它就一直没有奏效。这时，美联储将政策制定立场转变为以联邦基金利率为目标；在此之前，它关注的是M1货币供应量。此后，在九个牛市中的七个牛市中，联邦基金利率的最新变化是下调，而不是上调。</blockquote> I have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.<blockquote>我不知道当前的牛市是否接近尾声。但我要指出的是，联邦基金利率最近一次变动是在去年3月，当时美联储将利率下调了整整一个百分点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.<blockquote>底线？不要依赖利率趋势来判断牛市何时结束。</blockquote> This doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.<blockquote>这并不意味着快乐的日子又来了，让我赶紧补充一下。利率上升并不像许多人认为的那样令人担忧，并不意味着就没有很多其他担忧。肯定有，高估是最重要的。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>什么预示着股市牛市的顶部？利率不上升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>什么预示着股市牛市的顶部？利率不上升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-02-17 14:11\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nTreasury yields have risen sharply so far this year<blockquote>今年迄今为止，美国国债收益率大幅上升</blockquote> CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.<blockquote>北卡罗来纳州教堂山——利率上升不会破坏这轮牛市。</blockquote> That’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.<blockquote>这是至关重要的信息，因为利率在过去六个月中大幅上升，尤其是在过去几周。例如，10 年期国债收益率较去年 8 月上涨了一倍多，从 0.52% 升至目前的 1.20%。这一增长的很大一部分——27 个基点——是自今年年初以来出现的。</blockquote> I am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my&nbsp;column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.<blockquote>我之所以重新讨论这个话题，是因为许多读者显然不相信我本月早些时候的专栏文章，即利率与股市回报之间没有历史相关性。正如你们中的一些人指出的，该专栏关注的是在分析20世纪20年代的所有数据时出现的摘要模式。这与特别关注牛市顶部的利率趋势不同。这就是我在本专栏中关注的内容。</blockquote> Since 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actuallylowerthan where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.<blockquote>根据 Ned Davis Research 维护的日历，自 1962 年以来（我的 10 年期国债收益率数据库可以追溯到 1962 年），已经发生了 17 次熊市。在这 17 个案例中，有 10 个案例表明，熊市开始时 10 年期国债收益率实际上是降低比三个月前的水平还要高。换句话说，在一半以上的熊市中，10 年期国债收益率在之前牛市的最后三个月有所下降。</blockquote> You shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.<blockquote>不过，你不应该从这个结果中得出结论，除非利率下降，否则熊市不会发生。请注意，在这 17 个熊市中的 7 个熊市中，利率在熊市开始前的三个月内上升。得出的恰当结论是，利率趋势是牛市何时结束的不可靠指南。</blockquote> What about the Fed Funds rate?<blockquote>联邦基金利率呢？</blockquote> This conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.<blockquote>这一结论与我们多年来反复被告知的情况背道而驰，因此我想通过关注联邦基金利率来再次核实这一结论。这是美联储公开市场委员会直接设定的短期利率，多年来一些分析师认为，这是股市投资者最应该关注的利率。例如，根据埃德森-古尔德（Edson Gould）著名的 “三步走和绊倒法则”（three steps and a stumble rule），美联储连续三次加息（“三步走”）后，股市就会下跌（“绊倒”）。</blockquote> Gould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.<blockquote>当然，古尔德是 20 世纪 60 年代和 70 年代最著名的技术分析师之一。然而，无论他的规则在前几十年有多大的有效性，自 20 世纪 80 年代初以来，它就一直没有奏效。这时，美联储将政策制定立场转变为以联邦基金利率为目标；在此之前，它关注的是M1货币供应量。此后，在九个牛市中的七个牛市中，联邦基金利率的最新变化是下调，而不是上调。</blockquote> I have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.<blockquote>我不知道当前的牛市是否接近尾声。但我要指出的是，联邦基金利率最近一次变动是在去年3月，当时美联储将利率下调了整整一个百分点。</blockquote> The bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.<blockquote>底线？不要依赖利率趋势来判断牛市何时结束。</blockquote> This doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.<blockquote>这并不意味着快乐的日子又来了，让我赶紧补充一下。利率上升并不像许多人认为的那样令人担忧，并不意味着就没有很多其他担忧。肯定有，高估是最重要的。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-signals-the-top-of-a-bull-market-in-stocks-not-rising-interest-rates-11613490352?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-signals-the-top-of-a-bull-market-in-stocks-not-rising-interest-rates-11613490352?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1184726502","content_text":"Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year\nCHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.\nThat’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.\nI am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.\nSince 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actuallylowerthan where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.\nYou shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.\nWhat about the Fed Funds rate?\nThis conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.\nGould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.\nI have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.\nThe bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.\nThis doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/385660128"}