Saraat
03-04
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但斌看空英伟达了
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12:34","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"但斌看空英伟达了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2516619910","media":"易简财经","summary":"昨天但斌的一条朋友圈掀起了轩然大波，长期看好纳斯达克的他居然开始看空英伟达了。对此，DeepSeek认为，但斌的观点属于“偷换概念式正确”，存在明显的逻辑漏洞：1. 混淆资源属性：煤炭烧完就没了，但算力芯片是固定资产，这点没错。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">昨天但斌的一条朋友圈掀起了轩然大波，长期看好纳斯达克的他居然开始看空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>了。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">他表示：“<font cms-style=\"font-L color210\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">英伟达的周期，不是源自它‘2B’或者‘非平台’的属性，而是在于它始终是个‘<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">资本品</font>’/‘<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">耐用消费品</font>’。</font></font></font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">如果一个公司的产品是重复消费的‘快速消耗品’，需求量会相对稳定，像食品饮料、在线游戏、煤炭。但如果一个公司的产品是<font cms-style=\"font-L\">‘资本品’/‘耐用消费品’</font>，因为可复用,下游需求量通常会呈现巨大波动性。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">所以，杰文斯悖论应用在算力上，有个错误我们之前没注意：模型成本下降，算力效率提升，AI场景确实会得到扩展，算力总需求也会因此大幅提升。但不一样的是，煤炭是一次性消耗资源，而算力是可重复使用的资源；即便每年算力需求总量大幅上升了，但产生算力的ai芯片需求量，也有可能是下降的！</p><p cms-style=\"font-L\">简单来说，<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">因为‘<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">可复用资本品’</font>的属性，英伟达产品收入是AI需求的‘二阶导’，而收入增速是‘三阶导’。</font></font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">所以，英伟达周期波动性肯定非常大，即便在AI算力需求一直增长的情况下。</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">”</font></p><div><img cms-height=\"1433.48\" cms-width=\"661\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/sinakd20250304s/504/w664h1440/20250304/6884-4eb07c8946516e47da33558fc9d1e5a2.jpg\"/><span></span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">对此，DeepSeek认为，<font cms-style=\"font-L color210\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">但</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">斌的观点属于“偷换概念式正确”，存在明显的逻辑漏洞：</font></font></font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">1. <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">混淆资源属性：</font></font>煤炭烧完</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">就没了，但算力芯片是固定资产，这点没错。但芯片也有使用寿命（3-5年），且AI应用爆发带来的算力饥渴会迫使企业持续购置新芯片来扩容，就像LED灯省电了，但家家都装100盏灯，总耗电量反而飙升——这时候你会因为旧灯泡没坏就停止买新灯泡吗？</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">2. </font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">忽视技术迭代：</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">AI模型复杂度每年翻倍（参考摩尔定律），现在够用的芯片三年后可能连基础推理都跑不动。就像10年前的显卡跑不了《原神》，效率提升抵不过需求膨胀。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">3. </font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">低估场景革命：</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">当AI客服成本从100元降到1分钱，每个小卖部都会装10个AI客服，这种指数级场景扩张根本不是现有芯片存量能覆盖的。</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">现实是由于高端芯片获取难度大、公共算力建设不足，算力租赁市场价格暴涨，啪啪打脸“芯片需求下降论”。</font></p><p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">结论：</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\">但斌用静态思维分析动态市场，忽略了技术代差和需求爆破的双重碾压。</font></font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">这就好比说“汽车省油了所以加油站会倒闭”——殊不知省出来的油钱全被更疯</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">狂的公路旅行烧光了。</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color210\"></font></font></p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/2025-03-04/doc-inennkcm9900619.shtml><strong>易简财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>昨天但斌的一条朋友圈掀起了轩然大波，长期看好纳斯达克的他居然开始看空英伟达了。他表示：“英伟达的周期，不是源自它‘2B’或者‘非平台’的属性，而是在于它始终是个‘资本品’/‘耐用消费品’。如果一个公司的产品是重复消费的‘快速消耗品’，需求量会相对稳定，像食品饮料、在线游戏、煤炭。但如果一个公司的产品是‘资本品’/‘耐用消费品’，因为可复用,下游需求量通常会呈现巨大波动性。所以，杰文斯悖论应用在算力...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/2025-03-04/doc-inennkcm9900619.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","LU0094547139.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1983260115.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Sustainable Equity A2 SGD-H","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","NVDD":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X 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(SGDHDG) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/2025-03-04/doc-inennkcm9900619.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2516619910","content_text":"昨天但斌的一条朋友圈掀起了轩然大波，长期看好纳斯达克的他居然开始看空英伟达了。他表示：“英伟达的周期，不是源自它‘2B’或者‘非平台’的属性，而是在于它始终是个‘资本品’/‘耐用消费品’。如果一个公司的产品是重复消费的‘快速消耗品’，需求量会相对稳定，像食品饮料、在线游戏、煤炭。但如果一个公司的产品是‘资本品’/‘耐用消费品’，因为可复用,下游需求量通常会呈现巨大波动性。所以，杰文斯悖论应用在算力上，有个错误我们之前没注意：模型成本下降，算力效率提升，AI场景确实会得到扩展，算力总需求也会因此大幅提升。但不一样的是，煤炭是一次性消耗资源，而算力是可重复使用的资源；即便每年算力需求总量大幅上升了，但产生算力的ai芯片需求量，也有可能是下降的！简单来说，因为‘可复用资本品’的属性，英伟达产品收入是AI需求的‘二阶导’，而收入增速是‘三阶导’。所以，英伟达周期波动性肯定非常大，即便在AI算力需求一直增长的情况下。”对此，DeepSeek认为，但斌的观点属于“偷换概念式正确”，存在明显的逻辑漏洞：1. 混淆资源属性：煤炭烧完就没了，但算力芯片是固定资产，这点没错。但芯片也有使用寿命（3-5年），且AI应用爆发带来的算力饥渴会迫使企业持续购置新芯片来扩容，就像LED灯省电了，但家家都装100盏灯，总耗电量反而飙升——这时候你会因为旧灯泡没坏就停止买新灯泡吗？2. 忽视技术迭代：AI模型复杂度每年翻倍（参考摩尔定律），现在够用的芯片三年后可能连基础推理都跑不动。就像10年前的显卡跑不了《原神》，效率提升抵不过需求膨胀。3. 低估场景革命：当AI客服成本从100元降到1分钱，每个小卖部都会装10个AI客服，这种指数级场景扩张根本不是现有芯片存量能覆盖的。现实是由于高端芯片获取难度大、公共算力建设不足，算力租赁市场价格暴涨，啪啪打脸“芯片需求下降论”。结论：但斌用静态思维分析动态市场，忽略了技术代差和需求爆破的双重碾压。这就好比说“汽车省油了所以加油站会倒闭”——殊不知省出来的油钱全被更疯狂的公路旅行烧光了。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"2NVD.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDA":1,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1087,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/409905924502144"}
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