不做暴富的梦
05-26
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD)$
看空到3000以下
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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鉨彦
06-02
鉨彦
四、跌至700元以下的概率评估
- **可能性极低（＜5%）**：需同时满足以下极端条件：
✅ **美联储激进加息**（而非当前降息预期）；
✅ **美元指数暴涨至110以上**（当前约100）；
✅ **央行抛售黄金**（现实为持续增持）；
✅ **地缘风险全面消退**（特朗普政策实际趋稳概率低）。
结论
- **700元论调缺乏依据**：当前市场不存在导致金价崩溃的结构性变化，技术面亦无破位信号。
- **更可能路径**：短期金价或在**3200-3500美元**震荡（国内≈740-810元/克），长期在央行购金和去美元化趋势下仍看涨。
- **建议**：忽略极端唱空噪音，关注6月美联储会议及通胀数据，把握回调带来的配置机会。
krist枫仁院
06-03
krist枫仁院
大概率美联储保持当前利率，通胀预期倒是可能因为服务业价格降低回落
Nancy have no idea
06-07
Nancy have no idea
不可能
什么也没有了～
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精彩评论
- **可能性极低（＜5%）**：需同时满足以下极端条件：
✅ **美联储激进加息**（而非当前降息预期）；
✅ **美元指数暴涨至110以上**（当前约100）；
✅ **央行抛售黄金**（现实为持续增持）；
✅ **地缘风险全面消退**（特朗普政策实际趋稳概率低）。
结论
- **700元论调缺乏依据**：当前市场不存在导致金价崩溃的结构性变化，技术面亦无破位信号。
- **更可能路径**：短期金价或在**3200-3500美元**震荡（国内≈740-810元/克），长期在央行购金和去美元化趋势下仍看涨。
- **建议**：忽略极端唱空噪音，关注6月美联储会议及通胀数据，把握回调带来的配置机会。