画饼仙人马斯克
09-25
车企还不是得靠卖车的利好，卖车不好跌得少，教主的教育真不错
高盛之后瑞银跟进，华尔街竞相上调特斯拉三季度交付预期
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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sacredling
09-25
sacredling
200多喊到现在400多了，倒是使劲空嘛，说再多都没用
画饼仙人马斯克
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割洋韭菜的小镰刀
:
[弱]不受信徒的激将法，画饼公司等情绪过了再重新建仓。之前的帖子都有公布，再说你是谁？有没有仓位还要你允许。马斯克养殖业出来的优秀品种吧？
割洋韭菜的小镰刀
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画饼仙人马斯克
:
别光狗吠，公布下你的做空持仓？还是就会无能狂吠？
画饼仙人马斯克
:
那就看什么时候暴雷咯
马斯克小跟班
09-25
马斯克小跟班
你说的都对[笑哭]
什么也没有了～
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justify;\"><strong>“我们认为，我们的新预测更加贴近买方对于47万至47.5万辆区间的预期。”</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但他也指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“尽管最终数据可能符合买方预期，但我们通常发现，股价仍会根据是否超出或低于媒体的‘头条数字’而产生反应。”</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e222fca6e46bbf77139138eb88e10025\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"293\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉股价周三收涨近4%，今年迄今涨幅接近10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3802563c9fe30ce2449b19b890f13f3a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Spak在报告中指出，瑞银之所以上调预测，是因为第三季度在多个市场的交付表现超出预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先，在美国市场，消费者为了赶上2025年9月底即将到期的《通胀削减法案》（IRA）下7500美元电动车税收抵免，推动了特斯拉销量大增。瑞银认为，本季度可能创下自2023年中以来美国季度交付量最高纪录，甚至可能是有史以来最高水平。然而，分析师也警告，当前的强劲需求很可能属于“提前透支”，意味着即使特斯拉在第四季度推出“低价版”Model Y，交付量仍可能环比下降。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">欧洲市场也展现复苏迹象。数据显示，第三季度前两个月，特斯拉在欧洲前八大市场的交付量环比增长约22%。中国市场方面，零售交付量（即批发减去出口）环比增长约45%，表现同样稳健。此外，瑞银指出，土耳其和韩国市场的交付增长也值得关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>在库存方面，瑞银预计本季度交付量将超过产量，幅度可能达到7%，这将有助于特斯拉降低库存水平。</strong>相比之下，2025年第二季度产量曾超出交付量约2.6万辆，占比6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞银同时预计，特斯拉将在财报中披露本季度能源储能系统部署情况。尽管受到会计确认规则的限制，该数据难以即时核实，瑞银预测部署量为10.4GWh，环比增长8%，基本与Visible Alpha市场共识的10.9GWh持平，也高于上一季度的9.6GWh。Spak提醒投资者，能源储能业务具有周期性波动，单季度数据不宜过度解读。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">展望未来，瑞银预计2025年第四季度交付量将为42.8万辆，环比下降10%，同比下降14%。这一预估已经考虑了中国市场Model Y L车型的推出，以及美国市场可能面世的“低价版”Model Y。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全年方面，瑞银将2025年交付总量预期从151万辆上调至162万辆，尽管同比仍下降9%，但与市场共识持平。2026年交付量预期则略下调至160万辆，较市场共识低14%。瑞银表示，将在10月2日特斯拉公布实际交付数据后更新其财务模型。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管短期交付数据有所改善，Spak在报告最后仍强调：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>“特斯拉股价的主要驱动力更多来自于人工智能的市场叙事，而非其汽车主业。”</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛之后瑞银跟进，华尔街竞相上调特斯拉三季度交付预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-25 05:50 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756211><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银将特斯拉第三季度交付预测上调至47.5万辆，高于市场共识，美国通胀削减法案税收优惠到期推动美国市场交付强劲，欧洲、中国市场的交付也表现不俗。尽管如此，瑞银仍维持“卖出”评级，预期第四季度交付将环比下滑，并指出特斯拉股价当前更多由AI题材驱动，而非汽车业务基本面。特斯拉预计将在10月初公布2025年第三季度的交付报告，多家投行已提前上调交付预期。高盛分析师此前已上调交付量预测并提高目标价，而瑞银...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756211\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756211","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2570408735","content_text":"瑞银将特斯拉第三季度交付预测上调至47.5万辆，高于市场共识，美国通胀削减法案税收优惠到期推动美国市场交付强劲，欧洲、中国市场的交付也表现不俗。尽管如此，瑞银仍维持“卖出”评级，预期第四季度交付将环比下滑，并指出特斯拉股价当前更多由AI题材驱动，而非汽车业务基本面。特斯拉预计将在10月初公布2025年第三季度的交付报告，多家投行已提前上调交付预期。高盛分析师此前已上调交付量预测并提高目标价，而瑞银（UBS）分析师在本周也上调交付预估至超出市场普遍共识的水平，但仍维持对特斯拉股票的“卖出”（Sell）评级。瑞银最新预测特斯拉第三季度交付量为47.5万辆，较去年同期增长3%，较上一季度增长24%，明显高于此前预估的43.1万辆。这一数字比市场数据平台Visible Alpha的共识高出约8%，但与投资机构买方的预期更加接近，后者普遍预估交付量在47万至47.5万辆之间。瑞银分析师Joseph Spak在周一发布的报告中表示：“我们认为，我们的新预测更加贴近买方对于47万至47.5万辆区间的预期。”但他也指出：“尽管最终数据可能符合买方预期，但我们通常发现，股价仍会根据是否超出或低于媒体的‘头条数字’而产生反应。”特斯拉股价周三收涨近4%，今年迄今涨幅接近10%。Spak在报告中指出，瑞银之所以上调预测，是因为第三季度在多个市场的交付表现超出预期。首先，在美国市场，消费者为了赶上2025年9月底即将到期的《通胀削减法案》（IRA）下7500美元电动车税收抵免，推动了特斯拉销量大增。瑞银认为，本季度可能创下自2023年中以来美国季度交付量最高纪录，甚至可能是有史以来最高水平。然而，分析师也警告，当前的强劲需求很可能属于“提前透支”，意味着即使特斯拉在第四季度推出“低价版”Model Y，交付量仍可能环比下降。欧洲市场也展现复苏迹象。数据显示，第三季度前两个月，特斯拉在欧洲前八大市场的交付量环比增长约22%。中国市场方面，零售交付量（即批发减去出口）环比增长约45%，表现同样稳健。此外，瑞银指出，土耳其和韩国市场的交付增长也值得关注。在库存方面，瑞银预计本季度交付量将超过产量，幅度可能达到7%，这将有助于特斯拉降低库存水平。相比之下，2025年第二季度产量曾超出交付量约2.6万辆，占比6%。瑞银同时预计，特斯拉将在财报中披露本季度能源储能系统部署情况。尽管受到会计确认规则的限制，该数据难以即时核实，瑞银预测部署量为10.4GWh，环比增长8%，基本与Visible Alpha市场共识的10.9GWh持平，也高于上一季度的9.6GWh。Spak提醒投资者，能源储能业务具有周期性波动，单季度数据不宜过度解读。展望未来，瑞银预计2025年第四季度交付量将为42.8万辆，环比下降10%，同比下降14%。这一预估已经考虑了中国市场Model Y L车型的推出，以及美国市场可能面世的“低价版”Model Y。全年方面，瑞银将2025年交付总量预期从151万辆上调至162万辆，尽管同比仍下降9%，但与市场共识持平。2026年交付量预期则略下调至160万辆，较市场共识低14%。瑞银表示，将在10月2日特斯拉公布实际交付数据后更新其财务模型。尽管短期交付数据有所改善，Spak在报告最后仍强调：“特斯拉股价的主要驱动力更多来自于人工智能的市场叙事，而非其汽车主业。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.5,"TSLL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":56,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":482371398136488,"commentId":"482371398136488","gmtCreate":1758795041465,"gmtModify":1758795046411,"authorId":4200747074916302,"author":{"id":4200747074916302,"idStr":"4200747074916302","authorId":4200747074916302,"name":"sacredling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a5dd9339674724cde9c0cb76421647d","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.04.05","exceedPercentage":"60.11%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":482284250611784,"objectIdStr":"482284250611784","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"200多喊到现在400多了，倒是使劲空嘛，说再多都没用","text":"200多喊到现在400多了，倒是使劲空嘛，说再多都没用","html":"200多喊到现在400多了，倒是使劲空嘛，说再多都没用","likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"subComments":[{"id":484923369488920,"commentId":"484923369488920","gmtCreate":1759418609147,"gmtModify":1759418869958,"authorId":3560418186602071,"author":{"id":3560418186602071,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorId":3560418186602071,"name":"画饼仙人马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.10%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3e7f6253c885de8bad6403055b76aab","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3460150753529978,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3460150753529978,"idStr":"3460150753529978","authorId":3460150753529978,"name":"割洋韭菜的小镰刀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/9261eab9efa7438f95bb1d004581c8fd","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":482284250611784,"objectIdStr":"482284250611784","type":1,"supId":482371398136488,"supIdStr":"482371398136488","prevId":484921778213096,"prevIdStr":"484921778213096","content":"[弱]不受信徒的激将法，画饼公司等情绪过了再重新建仓。之前的帖子都有公布，再说你是谁？有没有仓位还要你允许。马斯克养殖业出来的优秀品种吧？","text":"[弱]不受信徒的激将法，画饼公司等情绪过了再重新建仓。之前的帖子都有公布，再说你是谁？有没有仓位还要你允许。马斯克养殖业出来的优秀品种吧？","html":"[弱]不受信徒的激将法，画饼公司等情绪过了再重新建仓。之前的帖子都有公布，再说你是谁？有没有仓位还要你允许。马斯克养殖业出来的优秀品种吧？","disclaimerType":0},{"id":484921778213096,"commentId":"484921778213096","gmtCreate":1759418299251,"gmtModify":1759418484579,"authorId":3460150753529978,"author":{"id":3460150753529978,"idStr":"3460150753529978","authorId":3460150753529978,"name":"割洋韭菜的小镰刀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/9261eab9efa7438f95bb1d004581c8fd","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3560418186602071,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3560418186602071,"idStr":"3560418186602071","authorId":3560418186602071,"name":"画饼仙人马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercent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