小白的大叔。
12-04
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
德州仪器仍处于长期红利期
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
1
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":507434475987144,"tweetId":"507434475987144","gmtCreate":1764861590301,"gmtModify":1764861592215,"author":{"id":3579778221419795,"idStr":"3579778221419795","authorId":3579778221419795,"authorIdStr":"3579778221419795","name":"小白的大叔。","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/995cc40528b93e7f90a2292a298025aa","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看</body></html>","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507434475987144","repostId":2586265176,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2586265176","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股研究社，一个专注研究美股的平台，专业的美股投资人都在这。想了解美国股市行情、美股开户、美股资讯、美股公司；想获得一手美股重磅信息；想加入美股交流社群，敬请关注我们吧。","home_visible":0,"media_name":"美股研究社","id":"1074069735","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6"},"pubTimestamp":1764157920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2586265176?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-26 19:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"德州仪器仍处于长期红利期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2586265176","media":"美股研究社","summary":"尽管如此，德州仪器仍是一家优质企业，此次回调或为长期投资者提供了颇具吸引力的介入机会。作为一家稳步增长的公司，德州仪器受益于人工智能带来的长期红利。这表明德州仪器各业务板块均运转良好，所有品类均实现了双位数增长，彰显了强劲的市场需求和优质的服务能力。主要风险与担忧德州仪器面临的以下风险可能在短期内对股价产生重大影响：尽管德","content":"<html><body><div><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" initial=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5040bc88ae423cabd527b9bf37fa40\"/></span></strong></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">德州仪器</a>（纳斯达克代码：TXN；加拿大多伦多证券交易所代码：TXN:CA）是全球领先的半导体巨头，专注于模拟芯片和嵌入式处理芯片的设计与制造。公司服务仍是人工智能服务器及硬件的核心支撑。</span></span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" initial=\"\" neue=\"\" nodeleaf=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"\" type=\"block\"/></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" initial=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span><em><span center=\"\" leaf=\"\" para=\"\" rgb=\"\">【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</span></em></span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">过去一年，该公司累计下跌 21%，反映出市场情绪疲软，且高估值面临回调压力。尽管如此，德州仪器仍是一家优质企业，此次回调或为长期投资者提供了颇具吸引力的介入机会。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">作为一家稳步增长的公司，德州仪器受益于人工智能带来的长期红利。</span><span textstyle=\"\">若能持续交出稳健业绩，有望从熊市趋势中反弹。不过，其当前前瞻市盈率约为 28 倍，而其营收和利润的单位数增长速度，可能不足以支撑估值倍数的显著扩张。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">未来前景仍存在不确定性，投资者或许更倾向于选择其他能实现高双位数增长的人工智能相关标的。</span><span textstyle=\"\">除非德州仪器能找到新的营收增长催化剂，否则其股价可能继续向市场平均估值靠拢。基于此，分析师给予德州仪器 “持有” 评级。</span></span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a99bd5f65ab14523aa02e80be0a4d853\"/></p><p><span><strong><span leaf=\"\">2025财年第三季度：</span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span leaf=\"\">双指标超预期，营收利润稳步增长</span></strong></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">10 月 21 日，德州仪器发布 2025 财年第三季度业绩，营收和利润双双超出市场预期，实现了双位数的稳健增长。然而，市场对此反应冷淡，财报发布后的下一个交易日，该公司下跌 5.6%。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">该季度，德州仪器营收达 47.4 亿美元，同比增长 14%，较市场预期高出 1.02 亿美元；摊薄后每股收益为 1.57 美元，同比增长 9%，超出分析师预期 0.09 美元。</span><span textstyle=\"\">分析师认为这一业绩表现稳健，反映出市场需求势头强劲，业务持续扩张。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">财报显示，管理层披露了各业务板块的营收构成：营收增长主要由模拟芯片业务驱动，</span><span textstyle=\"\">该板块当季营收 37 亿美元，同比增长 16%；嵌入式处理业务营收 7.09 亿美元，较去年同期的 6.53 亿美元增长 9%；其他业务营收 3.04 亿美元，同比增长 11%。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">这表明德州仪器各业务板块均运转良好，所有品类均实现了双位数增长，彰显了强劲的市场需求和优质的服务能力。若这一趋势持续，该股理应获得高于基准指数的估值溢价。不过，考虑到当前业绩已较为优异，且可能已反映在股价中，估值处于高位，因此难以支撑估值倍数的大幅扩张。这也印证了分析师的中性立场：股价可能上涨，但短期涨幅或受限。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">值得强调的是，德州仪器采取股东友好型资本配置策略。管理层表示，该季度公司向股东返还了 13.5 亿美元，其中包括 12.4 亿美元的现金股息和 1.19 亿美元的股票回购。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">过去 12 个月，公司累计支付股息约 49.5 亿美元，并通过股票回购计划返还 16 亿美元。</span><span textstyle=\"\">股票回购对公司利润增长具有重要贡献 —— 若能持续这一资本配置策略，将为未来数年的估值溢价和乐观前景提供支撑。对于长期投资者而言，这一策略颇具吸引力，加之 3.56% 的股息收益率，进一步提升了投资价值。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">德州仪器基本面持续改善：该季度运营活动现金流达 21.9 亿美元，自由现金流为 10.7 亿美元；自由现金流占营收的比例从去年同期的 9.3% 大幅提升至 14%，表现亮眼。这一趋势为利润增长和业务表现改善提供了有力支撑，进一步验证了乐观前景。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">总体而言，德州仪器本季度表现稳健，标志着公司从 2023 和 2024 财年的营收收缩期走出，重新实现双位数营收增长。目前，公司各业务板块全面发力，自由现金流改善，利润增长可观，且持续推行股东友好型资本配置策略。若这些趋势得以延续，股价有望获得提振。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">尽管主要不利因素已逐步消退，德州仪器有望为未来成功奠定基础，但考虑到当前的高估值，分析师不确定低双位数的营收增长是否足以支撑其显著跑赢大盘。因此，分析师维持 “持有” 评级 —— 认可其优质业务属性，但认为当前估值已相对合理。</span></span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8751b0f7bcdd47b3822ac65b55687964\"/></p><p><span><strong><span leaf=\"\">市场早已认可德州仪器的优质属性</span></strong></span></p><h1 spellcheck=\"false\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><br/></span></h1><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">德州仪器当前前瞻市盈率约为 28 倍，较行业中位数 22 倍溢价 26%，也高于标普 500 指数成分股平均 23 倍的市盈率。</span><span textstyle=\"\">这印证了分析师的观点：市场早已认可德州仪器的优质企业属性。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">当前估值倍数反映了市场对其业务的典型定价：若增长加速，估值仍有扩张空间；但如果前景转弱，股价下行风险缺乏保护。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">从前瞻市盈率相对盈利增长比率（PEG，非公认会计准则）来看，德州仪器当前为 2.36 倍，较同行的 1.57 倍高估 50%，表明上涨空间有限；前瞻企业价值 / 销售额（EV/Sales）和市销率（Price/Sales）分别为 8.69 倍和 8.19 倍，较行业中位数 3.18 倍和 3.36 倍的中点溢价 2.6 倍。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">这些数据传递出几个重要信号：一方面，德州仪器估值较同行存在显著溢价，支撑看空逻辑；另一方面，市场可能已提前消化了公司未来的营收增长预期。因此，即便德州仪器继续实现双位数的营收和利润增长，也未必能转化为显著的股价上涨。这进一步验证了分析师的中性立场。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">此外，德州仪器仍处于中等杠杆水平：总负债达 140 亿美元，现金储备为 51.9 亿美元；过去 12 个月，公司为偿还债务支付了 5.32 亿美元利息。若美联储决定维持高利率水平，公司将持续承担高额财务负担，对利润增长构成压力。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">过去一年，德州仪器营收增长 9.9%，较同行 8.56% 的增速高出 16%，这一表现本可为估值溢价提供支撑；但利润仅增长 2%，较同行约 13% 的增速落后 84%，这可能引发估值倍数收缩。不过，从最新季度表现来看，这家半导体公司的营收和利润增长已加速，前瞻性市场可能愿意为其稳健的业务表现支付更高溢价。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">德州仪器当前股息收益率约为 3.56%，较同行 1.44% 的水平高出 2.4 倍，这一优势为估值溢价和增长持续性提供了支撑。</span><span textstyle=\"\">此外，过去 4 年，公司平均股息收益率约为 2.80%，较同行 1.51% 的水平高出 86%，对寻求股息收益的长期投资者而言颇具吸引力。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">过去 12 个月，德州仪器股息增长率为 4.62%，较同行 4.92% 的增速低 6%；过去 12 个月现金股息支付率（TTM）高达 238%，远高于同行 29% 的水平，这一指标令人担忧。不过，公司已连续 36 年支付股息，这一趋势有望延续；且过去 12 个月现金净增加 7.22 亿美元，为股东友好型资本配置策略的持续推行提供了保障。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">作为半导体行业龙头，德州仪器拥有高于市场平均水平的优质利润率，这为乐观前景和高估值倍数提供了支撑：过去 12 个月毛利率达 57%，较同行 49% 的水平高出 17%；净利润率达 29%，显著高于同行 5% 的水平。这进一步印证了德州仪器是一家优质、高盈利的企业。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">综上，德州仪器并非廉价股，但高估值存在合理依据：高于市场的利润率、营收和利润增长的复苏、稳定的季度股息支付 —— 这些都对寻求收益的投资者颇具吸引力。不过，除非能开启新的营收增长周期，否则公司股价可能继续面临整合压力。尽管仍是优质企业，但当前的增长速度可能不足以支撑过高的估值和进一步的估值扩张。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">华尔街分析师预期，德州仪器 2025 财年摊薄后每股收益为 5.58 美元，2026 财年为 6.20 美元。分析师认为公司有能力达成这些目标，意味着利润将实现中等单位数的稳健增长。若将当前 28 倍的市盈率应用于 2026 财年 6.20 美元的每股收益预期，可得出 174 美元的目标价。</span></span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f1cb99f2ad43e18f019e2a0056acf9\"/></p><p><span><strong><span leaf=\"\">主要风险与担忧</span></strong></span></p><h1 spellcheck=\"false\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><br/></span></h1><h1 spellcheck=\"false\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">德州仪器面临的以下风险可能在短期内对股价产生重大影响：</span></span></h1><h1 spellcheck=\"false\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><br/></span></h1><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">尽管德州仪器是优质企业，但当前估值过高，下行风险缺乏保护。若市场情绪显著转向，或全球经济陷入衰退导致人工智能驱动的需求减弱，该股可能回调至接近市场平均估值水平。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">投资者之所以愿意为德州仪器支付溢价，源于其稳健的营收和利润增长、稳定的业务表现、股息收益以及长期以来的强势市场地位。然而，若其他人工智能相关标的继续保持高双位数增长，投资者可能转而选择这些替代资产；此外，德州仪器中等单位数的业务增长速度，可能不足以支撑其估值溢价。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">公司营收高度依赖模拟芯片业务。</span><span textstyle=\"\">若人工智能驱动的需求减弱，营收可能不及预期，进而影响未来前景，导致高估值回调。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">不过，若上述风险均未发生，德州仪器仍将处于有利地位，充分受益于强劲需求和人工智能带来的长期红利。</span></span></p><p><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ea17240125643e2b08070f1595d0d9e\"/></span><span leaf=\"\"></span></p><p><span><strong><span leaf=\"\">结论</span></strong></span></p><h1 spellcheck=\"false\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><br/></span></h1><h1 spellcheck=\"false\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">对于希望布局人工智能领域、同时寻求股息收益的长期投资者而言，德州仪器可能是一个颇具吸引力的选择。</span><span textstyle=\"\">但其当前估值较高，短期内需开启新的营收增长周期才能跑赢基准指数。</span></span></h1><h1 spellcheck=\"false\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><br/></span></h1><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">德州仪器拥有高于市场的利润率，但仍处于中等杠杆水平，高额财务负担对利润构成压力；同时，业务高度依赖模拟芯片，若人工智能驱动的需求减弱，营收增长可能面临阻力。若出现这种情况，投资者可能不再愿意支付估值溢价，股价或将向市场平均估值靠拢。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">基于此，分析师给予德州仪器 “持有” 评级。</span></span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" initial=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" solid=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c2da82260c6404fbf49bb600098d862\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></span></span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" both=\"\" gb=\"\" initial=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" nodeleaf=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9774974ff9654e24bd7bde42ea6b4906\"/></p></div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>德州仪器仍处于长期红利期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n德州仪器仍处于长期红利期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-26 19:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" initial=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a5040bc88ae423cabd527b9bf37fa40\"/></span></strong></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">德州仪器</a>（纳斯达克代码：TXN；加拿大多伦多证券交易所代码：TXN:CA）是全球领先的半导体巨头，专注于模拟芯片和嵌入式处理芯片的设计与制造。公司服务仍是人工智能服务器及硬件的核心支撑。</span></span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" initial=\"\" neue=\"\" nodeleaf=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"\" type=\"block\"/></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" initial=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span><em><span center=\"\" leaf=\"\" para=\"\" rgb=\"\">【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</span></em></span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">过去一年，该公司累计下跌 21%，反映出市场情绪疲软，且高估值面临回调压力。尽管如此，德州仪器仍是一家优质企业，此次回调或为长期投资者提供了颇具吸引力的介入机会。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">作为一家稳步增长的公司，德州仪器受益于人工智能带来的长期红利。</span><span textstyle=\"\">若能持续交出稳健业绩，有望从熊市趋势中反弹。不过，其当前前瞻市盈率约为 28 倍，而其营收和利润的单位数增长速度，可能不足以支撑估值倍数的显著扩张。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">未来前景仍存在不确定性，投资者或许更倾向于选择其他能实现高双位数增长的人工智能相关标的。</span><span textstyle=\"\">除非德州仪器能找到新的营收增长催化剂，否则其股价可能继续向市场平均估值靠拢。基于此，分析师给予德州仪器 “持有” 评级。</span></span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a99bd5f65ab14523aa02e80be0a4d853\"/></p><p><span><strong><span leaf=\"\">2025财年第三季度：</span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span leaf=\"\">双指标超预期，营收利润稳步增长</span></strong></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">10 月 21 日，德州仪器发布 2025 财年第三季度业绩，营收和利润双双超出市场预期，实现了双位数的稳健增长。然而，市场对此反应冷淡，财报发布后的下一个交易日，该公司下跌 5.6%。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">该季度，德州仪器营收达 47.4 亿美元，同比增长 14%，较市场预期高出 1.02 亿美元；摊薄后每股收益为 1.57 美元，同比增长 9%，超出分析师预期 0.09 美元。</span><span textstyle=\"\">分析师认为这一业绩表现稳健，反映出市场需求势头强劲，业务持续扩张。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">财报显示，管理层披露了各业务板块的营收构成：营收增长主要由模拟芯片业务驱动，</span><span textstyle=\"\">该板块当季营收 37 亿美元，同比增长 16%；嵌入式处理业务营收 7.09 亿美元，较去年同期的 6.53 亿美元增长 9%；其他业务营收 3.04 亿美元，同比增长 11%。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">这表明德州仪器各业务板块均运转良好，所有品类均实现了双位数增长，彰显了强劲的市场需求和优质的服务能力。若这一趋势持续，该股理应获得高于基准指数的估值溢价。不过，考虑到当前业绩已较为优异，且可能已反映在股价中，估值处于高位，因此难以支撑估值倍数的大幅扩张。这也印证了分析师的中性立场：股价可能上涨，但短期涨幅或受限。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">值得强调的是，德州仪器采取股东友好型资本配置策略。管理层表示，该季度公司向股东返还了 13.5 亿美元，其中包括 12.4 亿美元的现金股息和 1.19 亿美元的股票回购。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">过去 12 个月，公司累计支付股息约 49.5 亿美元，并通过股票回购计划返还 16 亿美元。</span><span textstyle=\"\">股票回购对公司利润增长具有重要贡献 —— 若能持续这一资本配置策略，将为未来数年的估值溢价和乐观前景提供支撑。对于长期投资者而言，这一策略颇具吸引力，加之 3.56% 的股息收益率，进一步提升了投资价值。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">德州仪器基本面持续改善：该季度运营活动现金流达 21.9 亿美元，自由现金流为 10.7 亿美元；自由现金流占营收的比例从去年同期的 9.3% 大幅提升至 14%，表现亮眼。这一趋势为利润增长和业务表现改善提供了有力支撑，进一步验证了乐观前景。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">总体而言，德州仪器本季度表现稳健，标志着公司从 2023 和 2024 财年的营收收缩期走出，重新实现双位数营收增长。目前，公司各业务板块全面发力，自由现金流改善，利润增长可观，且持续推行股东友好型资本配置策略。若这些趋势得以延续，股价有望获得提振。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">尽管主要不利因素已逐步消退，德州仪器有望为未来成功奠定基础，但考虑到当前的高估值，分析师不确定低双位数的营收增长是否足以支撑其显著跑赢大盘。因此，分析师维持 “持有” 评级 —— 认可其优质业务属性，但认为当前估值已相对合理。</span></span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8751b0f7bcdd47b3822ac65b55687964\"/></p><p><span><strong><span leaf=\"\">市场早已认可德州仪器的优质属性</span></strong></span></p><h1 spellcheck=\"false\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><br/></span></h1><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">德州仪器当前前瞻市盈率约为 28 倍，较行业中位数 22 倍溢价 26%，也高于标普 500 指数成分股平均 23 倍的市盈率。</span><span textstyle=\"\">这印证了分析师的观点：市场早已认可德州仪器的优质企业属性。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">当前估值倍数反映了市场对其业务的典型定价：若增长加速，估值仍有扩张空间；但如果前景转弱，股价下行风险缺乏保护。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">从前瞻市盈率相对盈利增长比率（PEG，非公认会计准则）来看，德州仪器当前为 2.36 倍，较同行的 1.57 倍高估 50%，表明上涨空间有限；前瞻企业价值 / 销售额（EV/Sales）和市销率（Price/Sales）分别为 8.69 倍和 8.19 倍，较行业中位数 3.18 倍和 3.36 倍的中点溢价 2.6 倍。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">这些数据传递出几个重要信号：一方面，德州仪器估值较同行存在显著溢价，支撑看空逻辑；另一方面，市场可能已提前消化了公司未来的营收增长预期。因此，即便德州仪器继续实现双位数的营收和利润增长，也未必能转化为显著的股价上涨。这进一步验证了分析师的中性立场。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">此外，德州仪器仍处于中等杠杆水平：总负债达 140 亿美元，现金储备为 51.9 亿美元；过去 12 个月，公司为偿还债务支付了 5.32 亿美元利息。若美联储决定维持高利率水平，公司将持续承担高额财务负担，对利润增长构成压力。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">过去一年，德州仪器营收增长 9.9%，较同行 8.56% 的增速高出 16%，这一表现本可为估值溢价提供支撑；但利润仅增长 2%，较同行约 13% 的增速落后 84%，这可能引发估值倍数收缩。不过，从最新季度表现来看，这家半导体公司的营收和利润增长已加速，前瞻性市场可能愿意为其稳健的业务表现支付更高溢价。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">德州仪器当前股息收益率约为 3.56%，较同行 1.44% 的水平高出 2.4 倍，这一优势为估值溢价和增长持续性提供了支撑。</span><span textstyle=\"\">此外，过去 4 年，公司平均股息收益率约为 2.80%，较同行 1.51% 的水平高出 86%，对寻求股息收益的长期投资者而言颇具吸引力。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">过去 12 个月，德州仪器股息增长率为 4.62%，较同行 4.92% 的增速低 6%；过去 12 个月现金股息支付率（TTM）高达 238%，远高于同行 29% 的水平，这一指标令人担忧。不过，公司已连续 36 年支付股息，这一趋势有望延续；且过去 12 个月现金净增加 7.22 亿美元，为股东友好型资本配置策略的持续推行提供了保障。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">作为半导体行业龙头，德州仪器拥有高于市场平均水平的优质利润率，这为乐观前景和高估值倍数提供了支撑：过去 12 个月毛利率达 57%，较同行 49% 的水平高出 17%；净利润率达 29%，显著高于同行 5% 的水平。这进一步印证了德州仪器是一家优质、高盈利的企业。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">综上，德州仪器并非廉价股，但高估值存在合理依据：高于市场的利润率、营收和利润增长的复苏、稳定的季度股息支付 —— 这些都对寻求收益的投资者颇具吸引力。不过，除非能开启新的营收增长周期，否则公司股价可能继续面临整合压力。尽管仍是优质企业，但当前的增长速度可能不足以支撑过高的估值和进一步的估值扩张。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">华尔街分析师预期，德州仪器 2025 财年摊薄后每股收益为 5.58 美元，2026 财年为 6.20 美元。分析师认为公司有能力达成这些目标，意味着利润将实现中等单位数的稳健增长。若将当前 28 倍的市盈率应用于 2026 财年 6.20 美元的每股收益预期，可得出 174 美元的目标价。</span></span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f1cb99f2ad43e18f019e2a0056acf9\"/></p><p><span><strong><span leaf=\"\">主要风险与担忧</span></strong></span></p><h1 spellcheck=\"false\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><br/></span></h1><h1 spellcheck=\"false\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">德州仪器面临的以下风险可能在短期内对股价产生重大影响：</span></span></h1><h1 spellcheck=\"false\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><br/></span></h1><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">尽管德州仪器是优质企业，但当前估值过高，下行风险缺乏保护。若市场情绪显著转向，或全球经济陷入衰退导致人工智能驱动的需求减弱，该股可能回调至接近市场平均估值水平。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">投资者之所以愿意为德州仪器支付溢价，源于其稳健的营收和利润增长、稳定的业务表现、股息收益以及长期以来的强势市场地位。然而，若其他人工智能相关标的继续保持高双位数增长，投资者可能转而选择这些替代资产；此外，德州仪器中等单位数的业务增长速度，可能不足以支撑其估值溢价。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">公司营收高度依赖模拟芯片业务。</span><span textstyle=\"\">若人工智能驱动的需求减弱，营收可能不及预期，进而影响未来前景，导致高估值回调。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">不过，若上述风险均未发生，德州仪器仍将处于有利地位，充分受益于强劲需求和人工智能带来的长期红利。</span></span></p><p><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ea17240125643e2b08070f1595d0d9e\"/></span><span leaf=\"\"></span></p><p><span><strong><span leaf=\"\">结论</span></strong></span></p><h1 spellcheck=\"false\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><br/></span></h1><h1 spellcheck=\"false\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">对于希望布局人工智能领域、同时寻求股息收益的长期投资者而言，德州仪器可能是一个颇具吸引力的选择。</span><span textstyle=\"\">但其当前估值较高，短期内需开启新的营收增长周期才能跑赢基准指数。</span></span></h1><h1 spellcheck=\"false\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><br/></span></h1><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">德州仪器拥有高于市场的利润率，但仍处于中等杠杆水平，高额财务负担对利润构成压力；同时，业务高度依赖模拟芯片，若人工智能驱动的需求减弱，营收增长可能面临阻力。若出现这种情况，投资者可能不再愿意支付估值溢价，股价或将向市场平均估值靠拢。</span></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\">基于此，分析师给予德州仪器 “持有” 评级。</span></span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" initial=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" solid=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c2da82260c6404fbf49bb600098d862\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></span></span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" both=\"\" gb=\"\" initial=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" nodeleaf=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9774974ff9654e24bd7bde42ea6b4906\"/></p></div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU1228905540.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL QUALITY DIVIDEND GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC 2","IE00BYQQ9H92.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0545039389.USD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A2\" ACC","LU1983260115.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Sustainable Equity A2 SGD-H","LU0347712357.USD":"BNP PARIBAS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","TXN":"德州仪器","IE0008368304.USD":"STEWART INVESTORS WORLDWIDE LEADERS SUSTAINABILITY FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0553294199.USD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A5G\" (USD) INC","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","IE00BFXG0V08.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0949170772.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 SGD-H","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU0545562505.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL QUALITY DIVIDEND GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU1003077747.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A6\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0345774631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF AMERICAN FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4604":"机器人概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1721428933.USD":"法巴全球经典环境基金RH MD Dis","LU0661504455.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A5 SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1235294995.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0738911758.USD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 USD","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2129689514.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU2129689605.HKD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1228905037.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL QUALITY DIVIDEND GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345774391.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF AMERICAN FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999011175.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Dis SGD-H","SG9999003800.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Acc SGD-H","LU2413666699.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) INC"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI4Mzc0ODQxOQ==&mid=2247788346&idx=3&sn=3408b5cdf88dda2bb7117c85f9850fba&chksm=eab084ee45c853c81fe0b34c09e13270c6dfabe503e92569127ced70e205994ce928e8a15625&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/ecd74548980bc5b366aa8f4b37ed0bd5","article_id":"2586265176","content_text":"德州仪器（纳斯达克代码：TXN；加拿大多伦多证券交易所代码：TXN:CA）是全球领先的半导体巨头，专注于模拟芯片和嵌入式处理芯片的设计与制造。公司服务仍是人工智能服务器及硬件的核心支撑。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】过去一年，该公司累计下跌 21%，反映出市场情绪疲软，且高估值面临回调压力。尽管如此，德州仪器仍是一家优质企业，此次回调或为长期投资者提供了颇具吸引力的介入机会。作为一家稳步增长的公司，德州仪器受益于人工智能带来的长期红利。若能持续交出稳健业绩，有望从熊市趋势中反弹。不过，其当前前瞻市盈率约为 28 倍，而其营收和利润的单位数增长速度，可能不足以支撑估值倍数的显著扩张。未来前景仍存在不确定性，投资者或许更倾向于选择其他能实现高双位数增长的人工智能相关标的。除非德州仪器能找到新的营收增长催化剂，否则其股价可能继续向市场平均估值靠拢。基于此，分析师给予德州仪器 “持有” 评级。2025财年第三季度：双指标超预期，营收利润稳步增长10 月 21 日，德州仪器发布 2025 财年第三季度业绩，营收和利润双双超出市场预期，实现了双位数的稳健增长。然而，市场对此反应冷淡，财报发布后的下一个交易日，该公司下跌 5.6%。该季度，德州仪器营收达 47.4 亿美元，同比增长 14%，较市场预期高出 1.02 亿美元；摊薄后每股收益为 1.57 美元，同比增长 9%，超出分析师预期 0.09 美元。分析师认为这一业绩表现稳健，反映出市场需求势头强劲，业务持续扩张。财报显示，管理层披露了各业务板块的营收构成：营收增长主要由模拟芯片业务驱动，该板块当季营收 37 亿美元，同比增长 16%；嵌入式处理业务营收 7.09 亿美元，较去年同期的 6.53 亿美元增长 9%；其他业务营收 3.04 亿美元，同比增长 11%。这表明德州仪器各业务板块均运转良好，所有品类均实现了双位数增长，彰显了强劲的市场需求和优质的服务能力。若这一趋势持续，该股理应获得高于基准指数的估值溢价。不过，考虑到当前业绩已较为优异，且可能已反映在股价中，估值处于高位，因此难以支撑估值倍数的大幅扩张。这也印证了分析师的中性立场：股价可能上涨，但短期涨幅或受限。值得强调的是，德州仪器采取股东友好型资本配置策略。管理层表示，该季度公司向股东返还了 13.5 亿美元，其中包括 12.4 亿美元的现金股息和 1.19 亿美元的股票回购。过去 12 个月，公司累计支付股息约 49.5 亿美元，并通过股票回购计划返还 16 亿美元。股票回购对公司利润增长具有重要贡献 —— 若能持续这一资本配置策略，将为未来数年的估值溢价和乐观前景提供支撑。对于长期投资者而言，这一策略颇具吸引力，加之 3.56% 的股息收益率，进一步提升了投资价值。德州仪器基本面持续改善：该季度运营活动现金流达 21.9 亿美元，自由现金流为 10.7 亿美元；自由现金流占营收的比例从去年同期的 9.3% 大幅提升至 14%，表现亮眼。这一趋势为利润增长和业务表现改善提供了有力支撑，进一步验证了乐观前景。总体而言，德州仪器本季度表现稳健，标志着公司从 2023 和 2024 财年的营收收缩期走出，重新实现双位数营收增长。目前，公司各业务板块全面发力，自由现金流改善，利润增长可观，且持续推行股东友好型资本配置策略。若这些趋势得以延续，股价有望获得提振。尽管主要不利因素已逐步消退，德州仪器有望为未来成功奠定基础，但考虑到当前的高估值，分析师不确定低双位数的营收增长是否足以支撑其显著跑赢大盘。因此，分析师维持 “持有” 评级 —— 认可其优质业务属性，但认为当前估值已相对合理。市场早已认可德州仪器的优质属性德州仪器当前前瞻市盈率约为 28 倍，较行业中位数 22 倍溢价 26%，也高于标普 500 指数成分股平均 23 倍的市盈率。这印证了分析师的观点：市场早已认可德州仪器的优质企业属性。当前估值倍数反映了市场对其业务的典型定价：若增长加速，估值仍有扩张空间；但如果前景转弱，股价下行风险缺乏保护。从前瞻市盈率相对盈利增长比率（PEG，非公认会计准则）来看，德州仪器当前为 2.36 倍，较同行的 1.57 倍高估 50%，表明上涨空间有限；前瞻企业价值 / 销售额（EV/Sales）和市销率（Price/Sales）分别为 8.69 倍和 8.19 倍，较行业中位数 3.18 倍和 3.36 倍的中点溢价 2.6 倍。这些数据传递出几个重要信号：一方面，德州仪器估值较同行存在显著溢价，支撑看空逻辑；另一方面，市场可能已提前消化了公司未来的营收增长预期。因此，即便德州仪器继续实现双位数的营收和利润增长，也未必能转化为显著的股价上涨。这进一步验证了分析师的中性立场。此外，德州仪器仍处于中等杠杆水平：总负债达 140 亿美元，现金储备为 51.9 亿美元；过去 12 个月，公司为偿还债务支付了 5.32 亿美元利息。若美联储决定维持高利率水平，公司将持续承担高额财务负担，对利润增长构成压力。过去一年，德州仪器营收增长 9.9%，较同行 8.56% 的增速高出 16%，这一表现本可为估值溢价提供支撑；但利润仅增长 2%，较同行约 13% 的增速落后 84%，这可能引发估值倍数收缩。不过，从最新季度表现来看，这家半导体公司的营收和利润增长已加速，前瞻性市场可能愿意为其稳健的业务表现支付更高溢价。德州仪器当前股息收益率约为 3.56%，较同行 1.44% 的水平高出 2.4 倍，这一优势为估值溢价和增长持续性提供了支撑。此外，过去 4 年，公司平均股息收益率约为 2.80%，较同行 1.51% 的水平高出 86%，对寻求股息收益的长期投资者而言颇具吸引力。过去 12 个月，德州仪器股息增长率为 4.62%，较同行 4.92% 的增速低 6%；过去 12 个月现金股息支付率（TTM）高达 238%，远高于同行 29% 的水平，这一指标令人担忧。不过，公司已连续 36 年支付股息，这一趋势有望延续；且过去 12 个月现金净增加 7.22 亿美元，为股东友好型资本配置策略的持续推行提供了保障。作为半导体行业龙头，德州仪器拥有高于市场平均水平的优质利润率，这为乐观前景和高估值倍数提供了支撑：过去 12 个月毛利率达 57%，较同行 49% 的水平高出 17%；净利润率达 29%，显著高于同行 5% 的水平。这进一步印证了德州仪器是一家优质、高盈利的企业。综上，德州仪器并非廉价股，但高估值存在合理依据：高于市场的利润率、营收和利润增长的复苏、稳定的季度股息支付 —— 这些都对寻求收益的投资者颇具吸引力。不过，除非能开启新的营收增长周期，否则公司股价可能继续面临整合压力。尽管仍是优质企业，但当前的增长速度可能不足以支撑过高的估值和进一步的估值扩张。华尔街分析师预期，德州仪器 2025 财年摊薄后每股收益为 5.58 美元，2026 财年为 6.20 美元。分析师认为公司有能力达成这些目标，意味着利润将实现中等单位数的稳健增长。若将当前 28 倍的市盈率应用于 2026 财年 6.20 美元的每股收益预期，可得出 174 美元的目标价。主要风险与担忧德州仪器面临的以下风险可能在短期内对股价产生重大影响：尽管德州仪器是优质企业，但当前估值过高，下行风险缺乏保护。若市场情绪显著转向，或全球经济陷入衰退导致人工智能驱动的需求减弱，该股可能回调至接近市场平均估值水平。投资者之所以愿意为德州仪器支付溢价，源于其稳健的营收和利润增长、稳定的业务表现、股息收益以及长期以来的强势市场地位。然而，若其他人工智能相关标的继续保持高双位数增长，投资者可能转而选择这些替代资产；此外，德州仪器中等单位数的业务增长速度，可能不足以支撑其估值溢价。公司营收高度依赖模拟芯片业务。若人工智能驱动的需求减弱，营收可能不及预期，进而影响未来前景，导致高估值回调。不过，若上述风险均未发生，德州仪器仍将处于有利地位，充分受益于强劲需求和人工智能带来的长期红利。结论对于希望布局人工智能领域、同时寻求股息收益的长期投资者而言，德州仪器可能是一个颇具吸引力的选择。但其当前估值较高，短期内需开启新的营收增长周期才能跑赢基准指数。德州仪器拥有高于市场的利润率，但仍处于中等杠杆水平，高额财务负担对利润构成压力；同时，业务高度依赖模拟芯片，若人工智能驱动的需求减弱，营收增长可能面临阻力。若出现这种情况，投资者可能不再愿意支付估值溢价，股价或将向市场平均估值靠拢。基于此，分析师给予德州仪器 “持有” 评级。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TXN":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":80,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/507434475987144"}
精彩评论