现在所有科技股都在压_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

现在所有科技股都在压力位边$英伟达(NVDA)$ 170$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 200$高通(QCOM)$ 320$苹果(AAPL)$ 270 $英特尔(INTC)$ 36，大家都在悬崖边，我认为还有10个点左右的回调空间，美股才在健康状态。2025决战就在这几天。

就在今天！史上最大规模期权到期，美股将迎来“疯狂一日”？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

兔司机不开车
12-19
兔司机不开车
感觉盘前都在往上慢慢挪，希望可以过个好点的圣诞节
- 天青色写诗回复AaronHy:
  白天开盘就买了，赚了快9个点，太厉害了老师，开心 [真香] [真香]
- 熊熊今年资金翻倍回复AaronHy:
  我今天跟上了八马
- 兔司机不开车回复AaronHy:
  太厉害啦！哈哈，今天刚刚查完八马是干啥的，还没建仓，希望下周能给机会进去[开心]
- AaronHy:
  昨天说八马今天涨快八个点没买么[真香]
- AaronHy:
  说真的今天盘前涨我反而更确信要跌不过也没上太大仓位现在
石洞
12-19
石洞
哥，昨晚买了一点点谷歌put，现在盘前这情况，貌似今晚普涨，我要割了吗？
- AaronHy:
  反正我不卖[笑哭]
DX777
12-19
DX777
今晚准备空谷歌的仓位大吗，我也准备逢高空，仓位还没想好，大哥给个建议[爱你]
- AaronHy:
  20251222 300put QQQ
听蓝
12-19
听蓝
哥想问一下今晚谷歌的put是开到26号的吗？怎么开比较好呢
- AaronHy:
  不开26 我开的22 就看周五下周一两天周一不跌就平
韭菜小黄
12-19
韭菜小黄
哥，我想请教一个问题：spacex快要上市，会不会会tsl利空
- AaronHy:
  spacex还早着呢
AaronHy
12-19
AaronHy
特朗普小儿子巴伦QQQ 570 1231put 还有市场560 116的put会不会到价内呢哈哈[DOGE]
- AaronHy:
  那你怎么知道人平了有没有在接回来呢 [笑哭]
- 不做赔本交易:
  想啥呢？人家早平了，他不平，现在得亏死了
- Inmoretion:
  相信会有一波调整

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002200\">交投</a>于6770点附近。创纪录的期权到期，可能成为年底行情中的一个关键变量，为市场增添了显著的不确定性。</p><h2 id=\"id_3508771893\">史上最大规模的到期事件</h2><p>此次期权到期之所以备受关注，核心在于其前所未有的规模。根据高盛分析师<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMSB\">John Marshall</a>的估算，超过7.1万亿美元的名义风险敞口将在今天集中到期。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12258f389f33008bc3ba75500181a02b\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"339\"/></p><p><strong>这一天在华尔街被称为“四巫日”（quadruple witching），每年仅发生四次，分别在3月、6月、9月和12月的第三个星期五。</strong></p><p>在这一天，四类衍生品合约同时结算，迫使交易员和做市商进行大量的平仓、展期或对冲操作，从而导致交易活动异常活跃。高盛的数据显示，仅与标普500指数相关的零日到期期权（0DTE）的交易量就已达到历史高位，占期权总交易量的62%以上，这进一步加剧了当日的复杂性。</p><h2 id=\"id_1711239824\">波动性加剧还是“钉住”效应？</h2><p>如此巨量的期权到期，可能给市场带来两种截然不同的影响。</p><p>一方面是可能加剧市场波动。KKM Financial的创始人兼首席执行官Jeff Kilburg表示：“我预计交易量将远超正常水平，因为期权交易员们需要了结2025年的盈亏。”他特别指出，标普500指数的6800点是一个重要的行权价位，市场将观察多头能否在该水平附近成功防守。</p><p>另一方面，巨量期权也可能产生“钉住”（pin）效应，反而抑制价格波动。高盛在其报告中解释，如果大量期权合约的行权价恰好等于或非常接近标的资产的当前市价（即“平价期权”），做市商为了对冲自身风险敞口而进行的操作，可能会将股价“拉”向这个被大量交易的行权价，导致股价在收盘时稳定在该水平附近。</p><p>高盛发现，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WGS\">GeneDx Holdings</a>、BILL Holdings、Avis Budget Group和GameStop在内的个股，其即将到期的期权占其日均交易量的比例很高，因此可能更容易出现“钉住”现象。</p><h2 id=\"id_2740955182\">关键技术位与市场情绪</h2><p>从技术层面看，市场正处在一个微妙的平衡点。根据期权分析机构SpotGamma的报告，标普500指数目前处于从6700点到6900点的“负伽马”（negative gamma）区间，这意味着市场本身倾向于放大波动，即上涨时加速上涨，下跌时加速下跌。</p><p>SpotGamma将6800点视为关键的“风险枢轴”（Risk Pivot）。报告指出，如果指数能够收复并站稳在6800点之上，可能被视为开启“圣诞老人行情”的信号。然而，如果指数维持在6800点以下，下行压力将占据主导，且下方缺乏有力的技术支撑区域。该机构警告称，即使市场反弹至6800点，也可能轻易回落，只有当指数明确突破该水平后，卖出看跌期权的资金才会进场提供新的支撑。</p><p>对于寻求交易机会的投资者，SpotGamma建议，若看涨，可考虑12月31日到期的6900点附近的看涨期权价差策略；若看跌，则建议选择明年2月或3月到期的看跌期权，以规避假期期间过快的时间价值损耗。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周五华尔街迎来史无前例的“四巫日”，期权到期规模创下历史新高。高盛指出，约5万亿美元风险敞口与标普500指数挂钩，另有8800亿美元与个股相关。而这种极端的敞口集中度或将在年底前引发市场的剧烈动荡。分析师正密切关注标普500指数能否守住6800点的多空博弈关键点位。本周最后一个交易日华尔街或将迎来剧烈动荡，交易员们正为一场史无前例的期权到期事件做准备。据高盛数据，本周五将有超过7.1万亿美元名义...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761680\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","GS":"高盛","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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witching），每年仅发生四次，分别在3月、6月、9月和12月的第三个星期五。在这一天，四类衍生品合约同时结算，迫使交易员和做市商进行大量的平仓、展期或对冲操作，从而导致交易活动异常活跃。高盛的数据显示，仅与标普500指数相关的零日到期期权（0DTE）的交易量就已达到历史高位，占期权总交易量的62%以上，这进一步加剧了当日的复杂性。波动性加剧还是“钉住”效应？如此巨量的期权到期，可能给市场带来两种截然不同的影响。一方面是可能加剧市场波动。KKM Financial的创始人兼首席执行官Jeff Kilburg表示：“我预计交易量将远超正常水平，因为期权交易员们需要了结2025年的盈亏。”他特别指出，标普500指数的6800点是一个重要的行权价位，市场将观察多头能否在该水平附近成功防守。另一方面，巨量期权也可能产生“钉住”（pin）效应，反而抑制价格波动。高盛在其报告中解释，如果大量期权合约的行权价恰好等于或非常接近标的资产的当前市价（即“平价期权”），做市商为了对冲自身风险敞口而进行的操作，可能会将股价“拉”向这个被大量交易的行权价，导致股价在收盘时稳定在该水平附近。高盛发现，包括GeneDx Holdings、BILL Holdings、Avis Budget Group和GameStop在内的个股，其即将到期的期权占其日均交易量的比例很高，因此可能更容易出现“钉住”现象。关键技术位与市场情绪从技术层面看，市场正处在一个微妙的平衡点。根据期权分析机构SpotGamma的报告，标普500指数目前处于从6700点到6900点的“负伽马”（negative gamma）区间，这意味着市场本身倾向于放大波动，即上涨时加速上涨，下跌时加速下跌。SpotGamma将6800点视为关键的“风险枢轴”（Risk 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