畜牧教主马斯克
12-31 19:02
突出一个一点也不脚踏实地，全靠画饼，你就吃吧。
2025年要结束了，马斯克吹过的牛，没有一个兑现
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17:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"2025年要结束了，马斯克吹过的牛，没有一个兑现","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2595729148","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"马斯克2025年的宏大承诺遭遇全面“跳票”。无论是特斯拉Robotaxi覆盖率与全无人驾驶的承诺，还是DOGE削减2万亿美元支出的目标，均未达成。此外，xAI的AGI预言、新款Roadster演示及火星登陆计划也悉数延期，引发市场对其前瞻指引可信度的深度重估。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>随着2025年步入尾声，回顾马斯克对本年度的一系列宏大承诺，从自动驾驶技术的普及到人工智能的突破，再到政府支出的削减，市场发现其履约记录呈现全面缺失的状态。这位科技巨头曾向投资者和公众许下的多个关键时间表，在年底均未转化为现实。</p>\n<p>在对资本市场影响最为显著的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>业务上，马斯克曾明确向投资者表示，到2025年底特斯拉的Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）将覆盖美国半数人口，且不再需要人类安全驾驶员。然而，目前的实际运营情况与上述指引严重背离，该服务仅局限于得克萨斯州奥斯汀部分地区，且仍未摆脱对车内安全监控人员的依赖。</p>\n<p>除了企业层面的未达标，马斯克主导的政府效率部门（DOGE）也未能实现其财政承诺。尽管马斯克曾誓言削减2万亿美元的联邦支出，但最新数据表明，联邦支出非但没有下降，反而不仅未达成缩减目标，在DOGE的监管下，2025年前11个月的联邦支出较上年同期反而增加了约2480亿美元。</p>\n<p>这一系列承诺的落空范围广泛，延伸至太空探索与通用人工智能领域。无论是SpaceX将人类送上火星的长期愿景，还是xAI在年内实现通用人工智能（AGI）的技术预言，均宣告延期。这种系统性的“过度承诺与交付不足”，正促使市场重新评估马斯克未来前瞻性指引的可信度。</p>\n<h2>Robotaxi覆盖率与全自动驾驶承诺落空</h2>\n<p>特斯拉在自动驾驶领域的进展是投资者关注的核心焦点，也是马斯克承诺偏差最大的领域之一。在今年7月的特斯拉第二季度财报电话会议上，马斯克曾向投资者断言，到今年年底，特斯拉的Robotaxi服务将覆盖美国半数人口。然而，<strong>截至年底，该服务仅在得克萨斯州奥斯汀运营，且即便是当地居民也极少在街头见到这些车辆。</strong></p>\n<p>更为关键的是关于“全无人驾驶”的技术兑现。马斯克曾在2024年第四季度财报电话会议及今年9月、10月和12月的多次公开表态中重申，到2025年底，奥斯汀运营的Robotaxi将移除人类安全驾驶员，实现真正的“无人监管”。马斯克甚至在12月初的xAI黑客马拉松上宣称“无人监管问题已基本解决”。</p>\n<p>然而事实显示，出于得克萨斯州的监管要求及技术现状，<strong>截至12月下旬，特斯拉的Robotaxi服务仍强制要求人类安全监控员随车。</strong>尽管马斯克本人发布了乘坐全无人驾驶车辆的视频，但这被证实仅为测试运行，普通用户所使用的服务并未剥离人工干预。</p>\n<h2>DOGE支出削减目标失效</h2>\n<p>在公共财政领域，马斯克作为新成立的准政府机构DOGE的领导者，其表现同样未达预期。在特朗普再次当选后，马斯克承诺将通过DOGE削减2万亿美元的“浪费、欺诈和滥用”资金。然而，随着时间推移，<strong>这一目标先是被修正为1万亿美元，随后又降至数千亿美元。</strong></p>\n<p>根据市场分析，DOGE并未实现实质性的储蓄。数据显示，2025日历年的前11个月，联邦政府支出总额达到7.6万亿美元，与2024年同期相比，支出实际上增加了约2480亿美元。分析指出，DOGE声称取消的许多政府合同实际上仍然有效，其发布的数据也多次被指不准确。</p>\n<h2>xAI通用人工智能与Roadster演示跳票</h2>\n<p>在人工智能领域，马斯克此前在社交媒体平台X上回复Google AI Studio的Logan Kilpatrick时曾明确表示，其旗下公司xAI将在2025年实现通用人工智能（AGI）。然而，这一里程碑并未在年内达成。据Business Insider报道，<strong>马斯克已将实现AGI的时间表推迟至未来几年。</strong></p>\n<p>此外，备受期待的硬件产品也未能如期展示。马斯克曾在Joe Rogan的播客节目中透露，特斯拉将在年底前演示推迟已久的Roadster原型车，并暗示可能涉及“飞行汽车”技术。然而，<strong>随着2025年结束，自2017年开始接受预订的Roadster至今未正式发布，所谓的飞行演示也未曾出现。</strong></p>\n<h2>火星登陆计划延期</h2>\n<p>在太空探索方面，马斯克的长期时间表同样遭遇挫折。早在2016年的Recode会议上，马斯克在与Kara Swisher和Walt Mossberg的对话中曾预测，如果计划顺利，SpaceX应能在2024年发射载人火箭，并于2025年抵达火星。<strong>现实情况是，截至2025年底，人类登陆火星的目标仍未实现，这一预测与其2011年关于“10年内送人上火星”的说法一样，均未能兑现。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2025年要结束了，马斯克吹过的牛，没有一个兑现</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762373\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6a2d85f5e8cd12b5acb8ead395b91e6","relate_stocks":{"LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3762373","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2595729148","content_text":"随着2025年步入尾声，回顾马斯克对本年度的一系列宏大承诺，从自动驾驶技术的普及到人工智能的突破，再到政府支出的削减，市场发现其履约记录呈现全面缺失的状态。这位科技巨头曾向投资者和公众许下的多个关键时间表，在年底均未转化为现实。\n在对资本市场影响最为显著的特斯拉业务上，马斯克曾明确向投资者表示，到2025年底特斯拉的Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）将覆盖美国半数人口，且不再需要人类安全驾驶员。然而，目前的实际运营情况与上述指引严重背离，该服务仅局限于得克萨斯州奥斯汀部分地区，且仍未摆脱对车内安全监控人员的依赖。\n除了企业层面的未达标，马斯克主导的政府效率部门（DOGE）也未能实现其财政承诺。尽管马斯克曾誓言削减2万亿美元的联邦支出，但最新数据表明，联邦支出非但没有下降，反而不仅未达成缩减目标，在DOGE的监管下，2025年前11个月的联邦支出较上年同期反而增加了约2480亿美元。\n这一系列承诺的落空范围广泛，延伸至太空探索与通用人工智能领域。无论是SpaceX将人类送上火星的长期愿景，还是xAI在年内实现通用人工智能（AGI）的技术预言，均宣告延期。这种系统性的“过度承诺与交付不足”，正促使市场重新评估马斯克未来前瞻性指引的可信度。\nRobotaxi覆盖率与全自动驾驶承诺落空\n特斯拉在自动驾驶领域的进展是投资者关注的核心焦点，也是马斯克承诺偏差最大的领域之一。在今年7月的特斯拉第二季度财报电话会议上，马斯克曾向投资者断言，到今年年底，特斯拉的Robotaxi服务将覆盖美国半数人口。然而，截至年底，该服务仅在得克萨斯州奥斯汀运营，且即便是当地居民也极少在街头见到这些车辆。\n更为关键的是关于“全无人驾驶”的技术兑现。马斯克曾在2024年第四季度财报电话会议及今年9月、10月和12月的多次公开表态中重申，到2025年底，奥斯汀运营的Robotaxi将移除人类安全驾驶员，实现真正的“无人监管”。马斯克甚至在12月初的xAI黑客马拉松上宣称“无人监管问题已基本解决”。\n然而事实显示，出于得克萨斯州的监管要求及技术现状，截至12月下旬，特斯拉的Robotaxi服务仍强制要求人类安全监控员随车。尽管马斯克本人发布了乘坐全无人驾驶车辆的视频，但这被证实仅为测试运行，普通用户所使用的服务并未剥离人工干预。\nDOGE支出削减目标失效\n在公共财政领域，马斯克作为新成立的准政府机构DOGE的领导者，其表现同样未达预期。在特朗普再次当选后，马斯克承诺将通过DOGE削减2万亿美元的“浪费、欺诈和滥用”资金。然而，随着时间推移，这一目标先是被修正为1万亿美元，随后又降至数千亿美元。\n根据市场分析，DOGE并未实现实质性的储蓄。数据显示，2025日历年的前11个月，联邦政府支出总额达到7.6万亿美元，与2024年同期相比，支出实际上增加了约2480亿美元。分析指出，DOGE声称取消的许多政府合同实际上仍然有效，其发布的数据也多次被指不准确。\nxAI通用人工智能与Roadster演示跳票\n在人工智能领域，马斯克此前在社交媒体平台X上回复Google AI Studio的Logan Kilpatrick时曾明确表示，其旗下公司xAI将在2025年实现通用人工智能（AGI）。然而，这一里程碑并未在年内达成。据Business Insider报道，马斯克已将实现AGI的时间表推迟至未来几年。\n此外，备受期待的硬件产品也未能如期展示。马斯克曾在Joe Rogan的播客节目中透露，特斯拉将在年底前演示推迟已久的Roadster原型车，并暗示可能涉及“飞行汽车”技术。然而，随着2025年结束，自2017年开始接受预订的Roadster至今未正式发布，所谓的飞行演示也未曾出现。\n火星登陆计划延期\n在太空探索方面，马斯克的长期时间表同样遭遇挫折。早在2016年的Recode会议上，马斯克在与Kara Swisher和Walt Mossberg的对话中曾预测，如果计划顺利，SpaceX应能在2024年发射载人火箭，并于2025年抵达火星。现实情况是，截至2025年底，人类登陆火星的目标仍未实现，这一预测与其2011年关于“10年内送人上火星”的说法一样，均未能兑现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.95}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":43,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/516929950638808"}
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