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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":541182812332416,"tweetId":"541182812332416","gmtCreate":1773150204173,"gmtModify":1773150206653,"author":{"id":3579778221419795,"idStr":"3579778221419795","authorId":3579778221419795,"authorIdStr":"3579778221419795","name":"小白的大叔。","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/995cc40528b93e7f90a2292a298025aa","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看</body></html>","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/541182812332416","repostId":2618932941,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2618932941","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1773141605,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2618932941?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-10 19:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"财报“审判日”将至！互联网泡沫后甲骨文(ORCL.US)再次面临“斩杀线”考验","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2618932941","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP注意到，在投资者对 AI 日益增长的质疑声中，很少有股票比甲骨文受到的打击更沉重。甲骨文上一次出现超过50%的跌幅还是在互联网泡沫破裂期间，当时该股花了数年时间才完全恢复。安德森目前不持有甲骨文股票，但他表示如果公司缩减资本支出且股价继续下跌，他会考虑买入。甲骨文的投资者并非唯一急于看到股价对财报反应的人。近期甲骨文股价抛售的一个正面影响是，其估值变得更具吸引力。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP注意到，在投资者对 AI 日益增长的质疑声中，很少有股票比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>(ORCL.US)受到的打击更沉重。而且，该公司即将公布的财报可能也无力改变这种情绪。</p><p>自去年9月10日触及高点以来，甲骨文股价已累计下跌54%，是同期标准普尔500指数中表现最差的股票；今年开年以来已下跌22%，位列该指数表现最弱的25只股票之列。甲骨文上一次出现超过50%的跌幅还是在互联网泡沫破裂期间，当时该股花了数年时间才完全恢复。</p><p>当前股市正高度关注各种风险——从AI开支、行业颠覆到伊朗战争——甲骨文将于周二盘后公布的第三季度财报，正迎头撞上急于寻找抛售理由的惊弓之鸟般的投资者。</p><p>安德森资本管理公司首席投资官彼得·安德森表示，<span>“它现在处于‘左右为难’的境地，”</span>他协助监管着45亿美元的资产。</p><p>这家企业软件公司预计将报告每股收益增长约30%，营收增长20%。根据共识预测，其云基础设施业务的销售额预计将飙升82%。</p><p>通常情况下，这对甲骨文的股价是利好，但如果投资者认为其资本支出计划过于激进，股价仍可能受到惩罚。这正是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>这两家云计算巨头的遭遇，它们虽然报告了优于预期的业绩，但由于市场对AI开支的担忧，股价随后遭遇抛售。</p><p><span>安德森表示，</span>“如果它继续按照目前的方式砸钱，特别是在对AI资本支出的质疑声日益增强的情况下，这会引发更多关于其杠杆率、现金消耗和资产负债表实力的疑问，”“另一方面，如果它削减支出，又会引发关于其战略以及与更大型对手竞争能力的新质疑。”</p><p>安德森目前不持有甲骨文股票，但他表示如果公司缩减资本支出且股价继续下跌，他会考虑买入。</p><p>预计甲骨文在2026财年(截至5月)的资本支出将超过500亿美元，是去年支出的两倍多。据预测，到2029财年，这一数字将突破850亿美元。</p><p>这种支出正在付出代价。根据汇总数据，该公司上季度报告了近100亿美元的负自由现金流，是其历史上最糟糕的一次，预计本分报告中该数字将为负73亿美元。2025财年是该公司自1990年以来首次出现负自由现金流，且预计这种情况将至少持续到2028财年。</p><p>由于融资问题和OpenAI的需求变化，甲骨文与 OpenAI 已取消了在德克萨斯州扩建旗舰级AI数据中心的计划。此外，据传该公司正计划裁员数千人，以控制AI扩建带来的成本。</p><p>为了扩建云基础设施产能，该公司计划今年通过债务和股权销售筹集高达500亿美元。反映杠杆风险的甲骨文五年期信用违约掉期(CDS)最近触及了2009年1月以来的最高水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260310/1773141291284064.png\" title=\"1773141291284064.png\"/></p><p>对AI的大量投资预计将会对现金流带来负面影响</p><p>Zacks投资管理公司客户投资组合经理布莱恩·马尔伯里表示，<span>“市场正在评估这种债务负担和支出是否能带来未来的增长，这种担忧必须得到认真对待，”</span>该公司在多个投资组合中持有甲骨文股票。“只要甲骨文能证明支出最终能转化为正向现金流并对盈利做出贡献，我认为这是可以容忍的，但这仍是一个需要观察的指标。”</p><p>甲骨文的投资者并非唯一急于看到股价对财报反应的人。此举也将对派拉蒙天舞产生影响，该公司斥资1110亿美元收购华纳兄弟探索的交易中，有457亿美元的股权由甲骨文主席拉里·埃里森设立的信托提供个人担保。</p><p>近期甲骨文股价抛售的一个正面影响是，其估值变得更具吸引力。目前股价约为预期收益的19倍，远低于9月时超过45倍的高点，且接近其17倍的十年平均水平。</p><p>当然，也有人认为跌幅已经过头了。分析师对甲骨文的12个月平均目标价接近260美元，而该股周一收于152美元左右，这意味着华尔街认为其未来一年有71%的上涨空间。根据追溯到2003年的数据，这是该股历史上隐含回报率最高的一次。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">杰富瑞</a>分析师布伦特·蒂尔在3月5日的一份报告中写道，<span>“我们认为市场可能忽略了甲骨文的上涨潜力和增长催化剂，”</span>“我们看到了一个极具吸引力的配置机会，其驱动力包括罕见的增长再加速态势、高利润的核心软件业务，以及较低的长期AI侵蚀风险。”</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260310/1773141267135991.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,q_90\" title=\"1773141267135991.png\"/></p><p>2026年科技股“七巨头”指数表现落后于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数</p><p>Zachs的马尔伯里认为，只要对AI产品的需求依然强劲，该股就应该具有吸引力。</p><p>“市场对AI支出的乐观情绪确实已经耗尽，但只要数据中心还在建设，我们就对增长预测充满信心，”他说。“现在股票的势头已经被挤出，我们开始发现真正的价值。我认为这是一个买入机会。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报“审判日”将至！互联网泡沫后甲骨文(ORCL.US)再次面临“斩杀线”考验</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报“审判日”将至！互联网泡沫后甲骨文(ORCL.US)再次面临“斩杀线”考验\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-10 19:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1412267.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP注意到，在投资者对 AI 日益增长的质疑声中，很少有股票比甲骨文(ORCL.US)受到的打击更沉重。而且，该公司即将公布的财报可能也无力改变这种情绪。自去年9月10日触及高点以来，甲骨文股价已累计下跌54%，是同期标准普尔500指数中表现最差的股票；今年开年以来已下跌22%，位列该指数表现最弱的25只股票之列。甲骨文上一次出现超过50%的跌幅还是在互联网泡沫破裂期间，当时该股花了数年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1412267.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU1935042991.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU0314106906.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4097":"系统软件","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1489326972.SGD":"First Eagle Amundi International AHS-MD SGD-H","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF 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US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1412267.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2618932941","content_text":"智通财经APP注意到，在投资者对 AI 日益增长的质疑声中，很少有股票比甲骨文(ORCL.US)受到的打击更沉重。而且，该公司即将公布的财报可能也无力改变这种情绪。自去年9月10日触及高点以来，甲骨文股价已累计下跌54%，是同期标准普尔500指数中表现最差的股票；今年开年以来已下跌22%，位列该指数表现最弱的25只股票之列。甲骨文上一次出现超过50%的跌幅还是在互联网泡沫破裂期间，当时该股花了数年时间才完全恢复。当前股市正高度关注各种风险——从AI开支、行业颠覆到伊朗战争——甲骨文将于周二盘后公布的第三季度财报，正迎头撞上急于寻找抛售理由的惊弓之鸟般的投资者。安德森资本管理公司首席投资官彼得·安德森表示，“它现在处于‘左右为难’的境地，”他协助监管着45亿美元的资产。这家企业软件公司预计将报告每股收益增长约30%，营收增长20%。根据共识预测，其云基础设施业务的销售额预计将飙升82%。通常情况下，这对甲骨文的股价是利好，但如果投资者认为其资本支出计划过于激进，股价仍可能受到惩罚。这正是微软和亚马逊这两家云计算巨头的遭遇，它们虽然报告了优于预期的业绩，但由于市场对AI开支的担忧，股价随后遭遇抛售。安德森表示，“如果它继续按照目前的方式砸钱，特别是在对AI资本支出的质疑声日益增强的情况下，这会引发更多关于其杠杆率、现金消耗和资产负债表实力的疑问，”“另一方面，如果它削减支出，又会引发关于其战略以及与更大型对手竞争能力的新质疑。”安德森目前不持有甲骨文股票，但他表示如果公司缩减资本支出且股价继续下跌，他会考虑买入。预计甲骨文在2026财年(截至5月)的资本支出将超过500亿美元，是去年支出的两倍多。据预测，到2029财年，这一数字将突破850亿美元。这种支出正在付出代价。根据汇总数据，该公司上季度报告了近100亿美元的负自由现金流，是其历史上最糟糕的一次，预计本分报告中该数字将为负73亿美元。2025财年是该公司自1990年以来首次出现负自由现金流，且预计这种情况将至少持续到2028财年。由于融资问题和OpenAI的需求变化，甲骨文与 OpenAI 已取消了在德克萨斯州扩建旗舰级AI数据中心的计划。此外，据传该公司正计划裁员数千人，以控制AI扩建带来的成本。为了扩建云基础设施产能，该公司计划今年通过债务和股权销售筹集高达500亿美元。反映杠杆风险的甲骨文五年期信用违约掉期(CDS)最近触及了2009年1月以来的最高水平。对AI的大量投资预计将会对现金流带来负面影响Zacks投资管理公司客户投资组合经理布莱恩·马尔伯里表示，“市场正在评估这种债务负担和支出是否能带来未来的增长，这种担忧必须得到认真对待，”该公司在多个投资组合中持有甲骨文股票。“只要甲骨文能证明支出最终能转化为正向现金流并对盈利做出贡献，我认为这是可以容忍的，但这仍是一个需要观察的指标。”甲骨文的投资者并非唯一急于看到股价对财报反应的人。此举也将对派拉蒙天舞产生影响，该公司斥资1110亿美元收购华纳兄弟探索的交易中，有457亿美元的股权由甲骨文主席拉里·埃里森设立的信托提供个人担保。近期甲骨文股价抛售的一个正面影响是，其估值变得更具吸引力。目前股价约为预期收益的19倍，远低于9月时超过45倍的高点，且接近其17倍的十年平均水平。当然，也有人认为跌幅已经过头了。分析师对甲骨文的12个月平均目标价接近260美元，而该股周一收于152美元左右，这意味着华尔街认为其未来一年有71%的上涨空间。根据追溯到2003年的数据，这是该股历史上隐含回报率最高的一次。杰富瑞分析师布伦特·蒂尔在3月5日的一份报告中写道，“我们认为市场可能忽略了甲骨文的上涨潜力和增长催化剂，”“我们看到了一个极具吸引力的配置机会，其驱动力包括罕见的增长再加速态势、高利润的核心软件业务，以及较低的长期AI侵蚀风险。”2026年科技股“七巨头”指数表现落后于标普500指数Zachs的马尔伯里认为，只要对AI产品的需求依然强劲，该股就应该具有吸引力。“市场对AI支出的乐观情绪确实已经耗尽，但只要数据中心还在建设，我们就对增长预测充满信心，”他说。“现在股票的势头已经被挤出，我们开始发现真正的价值。我认为这是一个买入机会。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCU":0.6,"ORCL":1.98,"ORCS":0.6,"ORCX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/541182812332416"}