jacklee0018
03-25
动不动就用现有的价格框架来估算一个额度，sspacecx如果当年也是这样去匡算投资额那马斯克根本就不该开始，电车起步的时候也是个乌托邦，你们这帮鼠目寸光的东西有什么资格评论人家
伯恩斯坦“泼冷水”：马斯克超级芯片工厂需5-13万亿美元资本开支，"比登陆火星还难"
马斯克推进Terafab芯片工厂计划及其对半导体设备股的影响
马斯克宣布在奥斯汀建设年产1太瓦计算能力的Terafab芯片工厂，计划自研芯片。该项目资金需求巨大，建设周期长，短期不确定性高，但长期利好ASML、KLA等半导体设备股。
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
111HK 林USD14
03-26
111HK 林USD14
讲得很好，好像世界首富的眼见都不如他们一样。
什么也没有了～
APP内打开
发表看法
1
3
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":546475464561408,"tweetId":"546475464561408","gmtCreate":1774441513655,"gmtModify":1774441516757,"author":{"id":4204448668051872,"idStr":"4204448668051872","authorId":4204448668051872,"authorIdStr":"4204448668051872","name":"jacklee0018","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b800e9dce5da7c117d3fc983679ba84","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.01.15","exceedPercentage":"93.75%","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"2fb74e8b83fb19b917402e565633860e","categoryId":"2929bb7468f5415f853fd96fb35d7c3b","name":"马斯克推进Terafab芯片工厂计划及其对半导体设备股的影响","type":2,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/special/finance&rndata={\"themeId\":2fb74e8b83fb19b917402e565633860e}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"马斯克宣布在奥斯汀建设年产1太瓦计算能力的Terafab芯片工厂，计划自研芯片。该项目资金需求巨大，建设周期长，短期不确定性高，但长期利好ASML、KLA等半导体设备股。"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>动不动就用现有的价格框架来估算一个额度，sspacecx如果当年也是这样去匡算投资额那马斯克根本就不该开始，电车起步的时候也是个乌托邦，你们这帮鼠目寸光的东西有什么资格评论人家</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>动不动就用现有的价格框架来估算一个额度，sspacecx如果当年也是这样去匡算投资额那马斯克根本就不该开始，电车起步的时候也是个乌托邦，你们这帮鼠目寸光的东西有什么资格评论人家</p></body></html>","text":"动不动就用现有的价格框架来估算一个额度，sspacecx如果当年也是这样去匡算投资额那马斯克根本就不该开始，电车起步的时候也是个乌托邦，你们这帮鼠目寸光的东西有什么资格评论人家","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546475464561408","repostId":2621608220,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2621608220","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1774357624,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2621608220?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-24 21:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伯恩斯坦“泼冷水”：马斯克超级芯片工厂需5-13万亿美元资本开支，\"比登陆火星还难\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2621608220","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"伯恩斯坦认为，\"Terafab\"项目更多停留在炒作层面。据测算，若实现年产1太瓦算力目标，需投入5至13万亿美元资本开支，并新增相当于当前全球半导体总量的产能，难度“堪比再造一个半导体行业”。","content":"<html><body><p>马斯克雄心勃勃的\"Terafab\"计划遭遇华尔街冷静审视。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台，伯恩斯坦研究在最新报告中以详尽的量化测算指出，<strong>若要实现马斯克所设想的每年1太瓦算力生产目标，所需资本开支高达5至13万亿美元，所需晶圆产能相当于全球现有半导体产能总量，这一挑战\"比登陆火星还难\"。</strong></p>\n<p>马斯克上周末宣布启动\"Terafab\"项目，计划将人类算力生产规模扩张至每年1太瓦，约为当前全球算力供应总量（约20吉瓦）的50倍，并将首先在德克萨斯州奥斯汀建设一座先进晶圆厂，涵盖计算芯片、逻辑芯片、内存、封装及掩模版生产全链条。伯恩斯坦分析师Stacy A. Rasgon领衔的团队随即发布报告，对该计划的可行性进行了系统性量化评估。</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦指出，若投资者真正相信马斯克能够实现这一目标，半导体设备股将是最直接的受益方向；但就当前而言，<strong>该计划对行业的实质影响\"可能并不大，更多停留在炒作层面\"。</strong></p>\n<h2>天文数字的资本开支测算</h2>\n<p>伯恩斯坦以现有算力架构（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>机架）为基准，对GPU、HBM内存及CPU三类核心芯片的晶圆需求进行了粗略估算。报告显示，<strong>每年生产1太瓦算力，需要每月700万至1800万片300毫米晶圆启动量，其中HBM内存需求占据主导地位。</strong></p>\n<p><strong>以每月5万片晶圆产能的工厂为单位换算，上述需求相当于新建140至360座此类工厂。按每座工厂350亿美元的资本开支计算，总投入将达5至13万亿美元。</strong>伯恩斯坦在报告中明确标注，上述测算属于\"非常粗略的估算\"，且尚未将网络、光学、模拟及电源芯片等其他半导体品类纳入计算范围。</p>\n<h2>产能需求堪比再造一个全球半导体行业</h2>\n<p>伯恩斯坦的测算揭示了这一计划在产能层面的惊人体量。报告指出，<strong>1太瓦算力所需的晶圆产能，与全球现有半导体产能总量（约每月1600万片300毫米等效晶圆）大体相当。</strong></p>\n<p>若仅聚焦于\"相关\"半导体——即内存加上4纳米及以下先进逻辑晶圆，当前全球已安装产能约为每月500万片300毫米等效晶圆，而1太瓦目标所需产能则是这一数字的数倍之多。换言之，<strong>马斯克的计划实际上要求在现有先进制程产能基础上实现数倍扩张，难度之高不言而喻。</strong></p>\n<h2>行业影响：设备股受益，代工模式暂无威胁</h2>\n<p>伯恩斯坦认为，Terafab计划对半导体行业的近期实质影响有限，但从投资逻辑角度提供了若干值得关注的方向。</p>\n<p>报告指出，若市场相信马斯克能够推进这一计划，半导体设备（semicap）将是最直接的受益标的。</p>\n<p>对于马斯克自建芯片是否会冲击现有芯片厂商，伯恩斯坦持相对乐观态度，认为在算力需求如此强劲的环境下，任何参与者都将面临远超自身承接能力的上行空间，内存厂商同样如此。</p>\n<p>在商业模式层面，伯恩斯坦指出，Terafab将逻辑、内存、掩模版制造、芯片设计及封装整合于一体，实质上构成一种\"超级IDM\"模式，而这一模式已被证明远不如\"代工+无晶圆厂+专业内存IDM\"的分工体系高效。</p>\n<p>因此，报告认为Terafab对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>等代工厂商目前构成的威胁有限。</p>\n<h2>伯恩斯坦：不否定马斯克，但挑战\"极为艰巨\"</h2>\n<p>尽管测算结果令人咋舌，伯恩斯坦并未将马斯克成功的可能性完全排除在外。</p>\n<p>报告写道，马斯克此前已多次完成外界认为不可能的事情，\"我们不会轻易否定他\"。</p>\n<p>然而，报告同时明确表示，\"真正意义上的Terafab对我们而言感觉像是一种延伸，尤其是在沿用当前算力范式的前提下。\"</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦提出两种可能的替代路径：</p>\n<p>其一，马斯克在无法独立推进时，或许会寻求与现有芯片制造商建立合作；</p>\n<p>其二，马斯克或许有某种\"更出人意料\"的技术路径来突破现有范式，但报告坦言\"我们不知道那会是什么\"。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伯恩斯坦“泼冷水”：马斯克超级芯片工厂需5-13万亿美元资本开支，\"比登陆火星还难\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伯恩斯坦“泼冷水”：马斯克超级芯片工厂需5-13万亿美元资本开支，\"比登陆火星还难\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-24 21:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>马斯克雄心勃勃的\"Terafab\"计划遭遇华尔街冷静审视。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台，伯恩斯坦研究在最新报告中以详尽的量化测算指出，<strong>若要实现马斯克所设想的每年1太瓦算力生产目标，所需资本开支高达5至13万亿美元，所需晶圆产能相当于全球现有半导体产能总量，这一挑战\"比登陆火星还难\"。</strong></p>\n<p>马斯克上周末宣布启动\"Terafab\"项目，计划将人类算力生产规模扩张至每年1太瓦，约为当前全球算力供应总量（约20吉瓦）的50倍，并将首先在德克萨斯州奥斯汀建设一座先进晶圆厂，涵盖计算芯片、逻辑芯片、内存、封装及掩模版生产全链条。伯恩斯坦分析师Stacy A. Rasgon领衔的团队随即发布报告，对该计划的可行性进行了系统性量化评估。</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦指出，若投资者真正相信马斯克能够实现这一目标，半导体设备股将是最直接的受益方向；但就当前而言，<strong>该计划对行业的实质影响\"可能并不大，更多停留在炒作层面\"。</strong></p>\n<h2>天文数字的资本开支测算</h2>\n<p>伯恩斯坦以现有算力架构（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>机架）为基准，对GPU、HBM内存及CPU三类核心芯片的晶圆需求进行了粗略估算。报告显示，<strong>每年生产1太瓦算力，需要每月700万至1800万片300毫米晶圆启动量，其中HBM内存需求占据主导地位。</strong></p>\n<p><strong>以每月5万片晶圆产能的工厂为单位换算，上述需求相当于新建140至360座此类工厂。按每座工厂350亿美元的资本开支计算，总投入将达5至13万亿美元。</strong>伯恩斯坦在报告中明确标注，上述测算属于\"非常粗略的估算\"，且尚未将网络、光学、模拟及电源芯片等其他半导体品类纳入计算范围。</p>\n<h2>产能需求堪比再造一个全球半导体行业</h2>\n<p>伯恩斯坦的测算揭示了这一计划在产能层面的惊人体量。报告指出，<strong>1太瓦算力所需的晶圆产能，与全球现有半导体产能总量（约每月1600万片300毫米等效晶圆）大体相当。</strong></p>\n<p>若仅聚焦于\"相关\"半导体——即内存加上4纳米及以下先进逻辑晶圆，当前全球已安装产能约为每月500万片300毫米等效晶圆，而1太瓦目标所需产能则是这一数字的数倍之多。换言之，<strong>马斯克的计划实际上要求在现有先进制程产能基础上实现数倍扩张，难度之高不言而喻。</strong></p>\n<h2>行业影响：设备股受益，代工模式暂无威胁</h2>\n<p>伯恩斯坦认为，Terafab计划对半导体行业的近期实质影响有限，但从投资逻辑角度提供了若干值得关注的方向。</p>\n<p>报告指出，若市场相信马斯克能够推进这一计划，半导体设备（semicap）将是最直接的受益标的。</p>\n<p>对于马斯克自建芯片是否会冲击现有芯片厂商，伯恩斯坦持相对乐观态度，认为在算力需求如此强劲的环境下，任何参与者都将面临远超自身承接能力的上行空间，内存厂商同样如此。</p>\n<p>在商业模式层面，伯恩斯坦指出，Terafab将逻辑、内存、掩模版制造、芯片设计及封装整合于一体，实质上构成一种\"超级IDM\"模式，而这一模式已被证明远不如\"代工+无晶圆厂+专业内存IDM\"的分工体系高效。</p>\n<p>因此，报告认为Terafab对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>等代工厂商目前构成的威胁有限。</p>\n<h2>伯恩斯坦：不否定马斯克，但挑战\"极为艰巨\"</h2>\n<p>尽管测算结果令人咋舌，伯恩斯坦并未将马斯克成功的可能性完全排除在外。</p>\n<p>报告写道，马斯克此前已多次完成外界认为不可能的事情，\"我们不会轻易否定他\"。</p>\n<p>然而，报告同时明确表示，\"真正意义上的Terafab对我们而言感觉像是一种延伸，尤其是在沿用当前算力范式的前提下。\"</p>\n<p>伯恩斯坦提出两种可能的替代路径：</p>\n<p>其一，马斯克在无法独立推进时，或许会寻求与现有芯片制造商建立合作；</p>\n<p>其二，马斯克或许有某种\"更出人意料\"的技术路径来突破现有范式，但报告坦言\"我们不知道那会是什么\"。</p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","UFO":"Procure Space ETF","TLA":"GraniteShares Autocallable TSLA ETF","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","07766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU2420271590.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","TSL":"1.25倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","TSLG":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","TSLI":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-ProShares","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSLO":"2倍上限加速TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","TSLP":"TSLA收益溢价策略ETF-Kurv","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4604":"机器人概念","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","BK4527":"明星科技股","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","TESL":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","TEST":"YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","BK4543":"AI","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3768281","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2621608220","content_text":"马斯克雄心勃勃的\"Terafab\"计划遭遇华尔街冷静审视。\n据追风交易台，伯恩斯坦研究在最新报告中以详尽的量化测算指出，若要实现马斯克所设想的每年1太瓦算力生产目标，所需资本开支高达5至13万亿美元，所需晶圆产能相当于全球现有半导体产能总量，这一挑战\"比登陆火星还难\"。\n马斯克上周末宣布启动\"Terafab\"项目，计划将人类算力生产规模扩张至每年1太瓦，约为当前全球算力供应总量（约20吉瓦）的50倍，并将首先在德克萨斯州奥斯汀建设一座先进晶圆厂，涵盖计算芯片、逻辑芯片、内存、封装及掩模版生产全链条。伯恩斯坦分析师Stacy A. Rasgon领衔的团队随即发布报告，对该计划的可行性进行了系统性量化评估。\n伯恩斯坦指出，若投资者真正相信马斯克能够实现这一目标，半导体设备股将是最直接的受益方向；但就当前而言，该计划对行业的实质影响\"可能并不大，更多停留在炒作层面\"。\n天文数字的资本开支测算\n伯恩斯坦以现有算力架构（英伟达机架）为基准，对GPU、HBM内存及CPU三类核心芯片的晶圆需求进行了粗略估算。报告显示，每年生产1太瓦算力，需要每月700万至1800万片300毫米晶圆启动量，其中HBM内存需求占据主导地位。\n以每月5万片晶圆产能的工厂为单位换算，上述需求相当于新建140至360座此类工厂。按每座工厂350亿美元的资本开支计算，总投入将达5至13万亿美元。伯恩斯坦在报告中明确标注，上述测算属于\"非常粗略的估算\"，且尚未将网络、光学、模拟及电源芯片等其他半导体品类纳入计算范围。\n产能需求堪比再造一个全球半导体行业\n伯恩斯坦的测算揭示了这一计划在产能层面的惊人体量。报告指出，1太瓦算力所需的晶圆产能，与全球现有半导体产能总量（约每月1600万片300毫米等效晶圆）大体相当。\n若仅聚焦于\"相关\"半导体——即内存加上4纳米及以下先进逻辑晶圆，当前全球已安装产能约为每月500万片300毫米等效晶圆，而1太瓦目标所需产能则是这一数字的数倍之多。换言之，马斯克的计划实际上要求在现有先进制程产能基础上实现数倍扩张，难度之高不言而喻。\n行业影响：设备股受益，代工模式暂无威胁\n伯恩斯坦认为，Terafab计划对半导体行业的近期实质影响有限，但从投资逻辑角度提供了若干值得关注的方向。\n报告指出，若市场相信马斯克能够推进这一计划，半导体设备（semicap）将是最直接的受益标的。\n对于马斯克自建芯片是否会冲击现有芯片厂商，伯恩斯坦持相对乐观态度，认为在算力需求如此强劲的环境下，任何参与者都将面临远超自身承接能力的上行空间，内存厂商同样如此。\n在商业模式层面，伯恩斯坦指出，Terafab将逻辑、内存、掩模版制造、芯片设计及封装整合于一体，实质上构成一种\"超级IDM\"模式，而这一模式已被证明远不如\"代工+无晶圆厂+专业内存IDM\"的分工体系高效。\n因此，报告认为Terafab对台积电等代工厂商目前构成的威胁有限。\n伯恩斯坦：不否定马斯克，但挑战\"极为艰巨\"\n尽管测算结果令人咋舌，伯恩斯坦并未将马斯克成功的可能性完全排除在外。\n报告写道，马斯克此前已多次完成外界认为不可能的事情，\"我们不会轻易否定他\"。\n然而，报告同时明确表示，\"真正意义上的Terafab对我们而言感觉像是一种延伸，尤其是在沿用当前算力范式的前提下。\"\n伯恩斯坦提出两种可能的替代路径：\n其一，马斯克在无法独立推进时，或许会寻求与现有芯片制造商建立合作；\n其二，马斯克或许有某种\"更出人意料\"的技术路径来突破现有范式，但报告坦言\"我们不知道那会是什么\"。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TLA":0.6,"TSLA":1.91,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"07766":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSL":0.6,"TSII":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":165,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":546664131626800,"commentId":"546664131626800","gmtCreate":1774487645181,"gmtModify":1774490474728,"authorId":3576059210680379,"author":{"id":3576059210680379,"idStr":"3576059210680379","authorId":3576059210680379,"name":"111HK 林USD14","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fddf0e11c8e2fa5e13389785b273bfd","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.06.29","exceedPercentage":"93.48%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":546475464561408,"objectIdStr":"546475464561408","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"讲得很好，好像世界首富的眼见都不如他们一样。","text":"讲得很好，好像世界首富的眼见都不如他们一样。","html":"讲得很好，好像世界首富的眼见都不如他们一样。","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/546475464561408"}
精彩评论