kaien
03-30
把“只有和平才成立”的结论,当成“无论打不打都成立”。
这就是华尔街最常见的话术诈骗。
回调已近尾声!大摩力挺美股,但警告加息仍是短期风险
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这就是华尔街最常见的话术诈骗。","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/548270348424096","repostId":2623194243,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2623194243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1774867706,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2623194243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-30 18:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"回调已近尾声!大摩力挺美股,但警告加息仍是短期风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2623194243","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉,摩根士丹利策略师表示,尽管美国、以色列与伊朗的军事冲突仍在持续,但标普500指数的回调正接近尾声。他同时警告称,美联储加息仍将对美股构成威胁。不过,策略师同时,加息仍是美国股市面临的短期风险之一。尽管高盛并未看到短期内明确的上涨路径,但其交易团队认为,当前抛售压力已接近尾声,在此背景下继续加码空头仓位风险较大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月30日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>策略师表示,尽管美国、以色列与伊朗的军事冲突仍在持续,但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的回调正接近尾声。他同时警告称,美联储加息仍将对美股构成威胁。</p><p>以迈克尔·威尔逊为首的摩根士丹利策略师团队指出,越来越多的证据表明美股下跌“正接近尾声阶段”,并列举了此前未伴随经济衰退或加息的“增长恐慌”的例子。策略师指出,罗素3000指数中有超过一半的成份股较52周高点下跌逾20%,标普500指数远期市盈率也已下跌逾15%,表明市场定价正越来越多地反映中东战争带来的风险。策略师周一在一份报告中表示:“我们认为,股市对增长风险的自满情绪低于市场普遍看法。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94dce0fc090bfd822faf7fe75e9751c0\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"437\"/></p><p>中东战争与AI担忧推动标普500预期市盈率回落,此次下跌走势与以往增长恐慌阶段相一致</p><p>数据显示,自1月27日以来,标普500指数已下跌8.4%。围绕人工智能(AI)的不确定性以及战争带来的冲击拖累了股市表现。随着更多美军抵达中东,以及伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装加入冲突,布伦特原油价格周一一度升至每桶116.89美元。</p><p>策略师团队表示,市场迄今为止已经对更高能源成本进行了定价。他们指出,与此前几次石油冲击导致经济周期结束的阶段相比,本轮油价相对去年的涨幅约为当时的一半。同时,企业盈利仍保持正增长,也将有助于抵御经济衰退风险。</p><p>策略师团队写道:“市场正在传递的信息是,霍尔木兹海峡原油运输的恢复累计概率远高于发生经济衰退的概率,而我们对此表示认同。”</p><p>不过,策略师同时,加息仍是美国股市面临的短期风险之一。过去几年中,股票对利率变化的敏感度已接近历史高位。与此同时,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">美国10年期国债收益率</a>也正逼近4.5%的水平,而这一水平在历史上通常会对股票估值形成压力。</p><p>策略师表示:“无论当前收益率上升是由通胀因素、更偏鹰派的美联储立场,还是战争导致的财政赤字问题所推动,或者是上述因素共同作用,我们认为这都是一个必须重点关注的重要风险变量。”</p><p>除了摩根士丹利,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>交易部门也发出警示,建议投资者不要贸然转向看空美股,当前市场结构反而更容易在利好消息出现时触发“逼空行情”。尽管高盛并未看到短期内明确的上涨路径,但其交易团队认为,当前抛售压力已接近尾声,在此背景下继续加码空头仓位风险较大。高盛策略团队在报告中指出,市场需要保持对冲和灵活操作,但“鉴于当前持仓结构对逼空风险较为敏感,不建议转向做空”。</p><p>花旗更是维持对美股基准指数的乐观预期,未对全年目标作出调整,尽管地缘政治风险升温与宏观不确定性加剧拖累市场情绪。花旗上周在客户报告中重申,对标普500指数的年终基准预测为7700点。这一判断基于每股约320美元的盈利预期,而该行认为这一盈利假设甚至可能偏保守。此外,花旗还提出乐观情景,预计在企业盈利增长超预期及估值小幅扩张的推动下,标普500有望上探至8300点;而在悲观情景下,若基本面走弱、估值收缩,指数可能回落至5700点。</p><p>花旗指出,当前市场面临的挑战正在增加,其中包括与中东相关的地缘冲突升级,同时还叠加人工智能带来的结构性冲击、私募信贷市场的潜在风险以及全球贸易政策不确定性等多重因素。尽管如此,该行表示暂不调整全年预测。报告称:“我们目前维持全年目标不变。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n回调已近尾声!大摩力挺美股,但警告加息仍是短期风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-30 18:48 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1421891.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月30日,摩根士丹利策略师表示,尽管美国、以色列与伊朗的军事冲突仍在持续,但标普500指数的回调正接近尾声。他同时警告称,美联储加息仍将对美股构成威胁。以迈克尔·威尔逊为首的摩根士丹利策略师团队指出,越来越多的证据表明美股下跌“正接近尾声阶段”,并列举了此前未伴随经济衰退或加息的“增长恐慌”的例子。策略师指出,罗素3000指数中有超过一半的成份股较52周高点下跌逾20%,标普500指数远期市盈率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1421891.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1421891.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2623194243","content_text":"3月30日,摩根士丹利策略师表示,尽管美国、以色列与伊朗的军事冲突仍在持续,但标普500指数的回调正接近尾声。他同时警告称,美联储加息仍将对美股构成威胁。以迈克尔·威尔逊为首的摩根士丹利策略师团队指出,越来越多的证据表明美股下跌“正接近尾声阶段”,并列举了此前未伴随经济衰退或加息的“增长恐慌”的例子。策略师指出,罗素3000指数中有超过一半的成份股较52周高点下跌逾20%,标普500指数远期市盈率也已下跌逾15%,表明市场定价正越来越多地反映中东战争带来的风险。策略师周一在一份报告中表示:“我们认为,股市对增长风险的自满情绪低于市场普遍看法。”中东战争与AI担忧推动标普500预期市盈率回落,此次下跌走势与以往增长恐慌阶段相一致数据显示,自1月27日以来,标普500指数已下跌8.4%。围绕人工智能(AI)的不确定性以及战争带来的冲击拖累了股市表现。随着更多美军抵达中东,以及伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装加入冲突,布伦特原油价格周一一度升至每桶116.89美元。策略师团队表示,市场迄今为止已经对更高能源成本进行了定价。他们指出,与此前几次石油冲击导致经济周期结束的阶段相比,本轮油价相对去年的涨幅约为当时的一半。同时,企业盈利仍保持正增长,也将有助于抵御经济衰退风险。策略师团队写道:“市场正在传递的信息是,霍尔木兹海峡原油运输的恢复累计概率远高于发生经济衰退的概率,而我们对此表示认同。”不过,策略师同时,加息仍是美国股市面临的短期风险之一。过去几年中,股票对利率变化的敏感度已接近历史高位。与此同时,美国10年期国债收益率也正逼近4.5%的水平,而这一水平在历史上通常会对股票估值形成压力。策略师表示:“无论当前收益率上升是由通胀因素、更偏鹰派的美联储立场,还是战争导致的财政赤字问题所推动,或者是上述因素共同作用,我们认为这都是一个必须重点关注的重要风险变量。”除了摩根士丹利,高盛交易部门也发出警示,建议投资者不要贸然转向看空美股,当前市场结构反而更容易在利好消息出现时触发“逼空行情”。尽管高盛并未看到短期内明确的上涨路径,但其交易团队认为,当前抛售压力已接近尾声,在此背景下继续加码空头仓位风险较大。高盛策略团队在报告中指出,市场需要保持对冲和灵活操作,但“鉴于当前持仓结构对逼空风险较为敏感,不建议转向做空”。花旗更是维持对美股基准指数的乐观预期,未对全年目标作出调整,尽管地缘政治风险升温与宏观不确定性加剧拖累市场情绪。花旗上周在客户报告中重申,对标普500指数的年终基准预测为7700点。这一判断基于每股约320美元的盈利预期,而该行认为这一盈利假设甚至可能偏保守。此外,花旗还提出乐观情景,预计在企业盈利增长超预期及估值小幅扩张的推动下,标普500有望上探至8300点;而在悲观情景下,若基本面走弱、估值收缩,指数可能回落至5700点。花旗指出,当前市场面临的挑战正在增加,其中包括与中东相关的地缘冲突升级,同时还叠加人工智能带来的结构性冲击、私募信贷市场的潜在风险以及全球贸易政策不确定性等多重因素。尽管如此,该行表示暂不调整全年预测。报告称:“我们目前维持全年目标不变。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NDX":2,"MNQ2612":2,".IXIC":2,"ESmain":2,"MNQ2603":2,".DJI":2,"MNQmain":2,"NQmain":2,".SPX":2,"YMmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":150,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":77,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/548270348424096"}
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