老虎KING
04-07 17:55
确定性的财报，开盘一定是跌的
台积电财报前，摩根大通高喊：买入！公司先进制程紧缺将持续到2027年
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EricGo
04-08 07:38
EricGo
为啥，利好已经释放完了吗
老虎KING
:
差不多，因为股市永远都是小部分人赚钱，都知道一家公司爆单了，所有人都明白财报是盈利的，那一定是大跌
什么也没有了～
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Code、OpenClaw及其他AI实验室的类似产品上线后带动的token消耗量激增——是这一轮需求超预期的主要驱动力。</p><p><strong>与此同时，服务器AI互联产品（含网络芯片、DSP、retimer等）需求随算力扩张同步提升</strong>，Google Axion、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a> Grace、AWS Graviton、Microsoft Cobalt等服务器CPU的需求也出现明显回升。</p><p>目前先进制程晶圆需求已大幅收紧，<strong>N3与N2产能对大多数HPC客户而言已被预订至2027年。</strong></p><p>NVIDIA Rubin、AWS Trainium 3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a> MTIA等主要AI加速器正于2026年迁移至N3制程，叠加Google TPU（Ironwood及v8系列）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a> MI系列的持续放量，N3供需失衡进一步加剧。</p><p>尽管台积电正努力于2026年底前扩充产能，N3稼动率仍将在2026/2027年分别维持在120%以上和110%以上。N3营收预计将于2026年实现约翻倍增长，占台积电总营收的比重超过30%，其中HPC需求约占N3总需求的三分之二。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c9b5746e1d8d51ac35fb7c6d718335d\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"490\"/></p><p>N2方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>全系iPhone（A20/A20 Pro）、AMD Venice和MI450，以及联发科和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>旗舰SoC均于2026年采用N2制程，N2营收占比预计将从2026年的约4%增长至2027/2028年的15%和26%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e2e4be3beb2cd576b0121e32c251feb9\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"486\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_86482179\">积极扩产，2026至2028年资本开支料达1,900亿美元</h2><p>台积电2027年和2028年资本开支预测分别上调至635亿和705亿美元，预计台积电2026至2028年三年累计资本开支将达约1,900亿美元，几乎是2023至2025年约1,010亿美元的两倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3a34c38e8b9fa6d45cde40f9c2c441bb\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"596\"/></p><p>这一大规模支出反映台积电全力支持AI算力扩张的战略决心，背后是其客户的客户端营收高速增长以及token使用量的指数级扩张。<strong>预计先进制程（N7及以下节点）产能将在2025至2028年间实现16%的年复合增速。</strong></p><p><strong>全球产能版图同步加速扩张：</strong></p><blockquote><p>台湾方面，台积电正推进台南Fab 18 P9的N3扩产、高雄Fab 22 P1至P5的N2及A16产能建设，以及宝山Fab 20 P1至P4的建设；</p><p>长期规划方面，台中Fab 25将布局A14/A10节点，Fab 18亦有望新增P10至P12阶段（待土地审批），台南还有另一座面向A10/A7节点的八阶段新晶圆厂的早期规划。</p><p>海外方面，美国亚利桑那州Fab 21第二期N3量产时间有望提前至2027年年中，第三期N2产能则可能于2028年底至2029年上半年启动；日本熊本Fab 23第二期N3产能预计于2028年下半年开始量产。</p><p>先进封装方面，CoWoS产能预计于2026/2027年底分别达到11.5万和14.5万片/月，SoIC将于2027至2028年进入大规模投资阶段，NVIDIA Feynman、Google TPU v9、Trainium 4及OpenAI Titan 2等多款N2加速器有望采用SoIC架构。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/227b1660b9dbfa07a5fcc018b171e4f2\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"380\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2097891059\">毛利率超预期，上半年或创历史新高</h2><p>预计台积电一季度毛利率将达到66.8%，超出公司指引上限约180个基点，并在二季度维持66.4%的高位，较2025年下半年跳升逾550个基点。</p><p>报告列举了支撑毛利率超预期的五大因素：</p><blockquote><p>其一，N5与N3的稼动率持续超过100%；</p><p>其二，跨厂区运营（Cross-Fab）提升了N7和28nm产能的稼动率，降低闲置设备成本；</p><p>其三，HPC客户的"加急"和"超加急"晶圆订单（hot run/super-hot run）增加，该类订单可获得50%至100%的溢价；</p><p>其四，2026年先进制程约6%至10%的同类产品涨价已于1月起全面落地；</p><p>其五，台币对美元在过去两个月贬值逾1.5%，每贬值1%可带来约0.4个百分点的毛利率提升。</p></blockquote><p>保守预计2026年下半年毛利率将环比回落约400个基点，主要反映N2制程良率爬坡的稀释效应、海外晶圆厂（尤其是美国厂区快速扩建）的前期摊销，以及潜在的电费涨价影响。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4afd57e26994d5dcd94c6c913cb8a029\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"378\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3060363702\">财报前市场预期：一季度超预期，全年指引维持不变</h2><p>预计台积电一季度营收将环比增长7%，高于公司指引区间上限（3%至6%的环比增幅，对应335亿至358亿美元）；二季度指引预计为环比增长6%至8%（预估为8%），毛利率指引区间为64%至66%。</p><p>尽管需求持续向好，但报告预计台积电在本次财报电话会上不会调整全年数值指引，预计管理层将维持以下三项指引不变：</p><blockquote><p>2026年全年美元营收增速"接近30%"（预测为35%）；</p><p>2024至2029年AI营收五年复合增速为"中至高50%"；</p><p>以及2024至2029年公司美元营收长期年复合增速约25%。</p></blockquote><p>预计管理层在本次电话会将传递以下信号：</p><blockquote><p>对AI需求的乐观态度将有所强化；</p><p>对2027至2028年产能扩张计划的表态更为积极；</p><p>对苹果产业链强劲需求的着重强调；</p><p>美国N3和N2制程的加速扩产进展；</p><p>以及对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>TeraFab、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>代工业务等竞争态势保持充分信心。</p></blockquote><p>报告以约20倍12个月预期市盈率作为估值基准，对应目标价新台币2,400元，高于台积电五年历史均值市盈率，反映摩根大通对其结构性成长逻辑的高度认可。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-07 15:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>AI算力需求的爆发式增长，正将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>的先进制程产能推向前所未有的紧张状态。</p><p>据追风交易台，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>2026年4月2日发布研究报告，将台积电目标价从新台币2,250元上调至2,400元，预计台积电将在即将公布的一季度财报中毛利率料达66.8%，高于公司自身指引的63%至65%区间。</p><p>推动上调的核心逻辑在于：<strong>以N3制程为代表的先进制程产能已被预订至2027年，供需失衡在过去两至三个月内进一步加剧。</strong></p><p>Agentic AI工作负载的强劲增长带动算力消耗呈指数级上升，而GPU、CPU及AI互联等多类产品的需求同步攀升，令台积电先进制程的稼动率持续突破100%。</p><p>这一供需格局将支撑台积电毛利率在2026年上半年持续走高，并推动公司在2026至2028年三年间累计资本开支达到约1,900亿美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_280026850\">AI算力需求骤升，N3产能预订已排至2027年</h2><p>过去两至三个月内，AI算力需求出现明显加速。<strong>Agentic AI工作负载的爆发</strong>——包括Claude Code、OpenClaw及其他AI实验室的类似产品上线后带动的token消耗量激增——是这一轮需求超预期的主要驱动力。</p><p><strong>与此同时，服务器AI互联产品（含网络芯片、DSP、retimer等）需求随算力扩张同步提升</strong>，Google Axion、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a> Grace、AWS Graviton、Microsoft Cobalt等服务器CPU的需求也出现明显回升。</p><p>目前先进制程晶圆需求已大幅收紧，<strong>N3与N2产能对大多数HPC客户而言已被预订至2027年。</strong></p><p>NVIDIA Rubin、AWS Trainium 3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a> MTIA等主要AI加速器正于2026年迁移至N3制程，叠加Google TPU（Ironwood及v8系列）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a> MI系列的持续放量，N3供需失衡进一步加剧。</p><p>尽管台积电正努力于2026年底前扩充产能，N3稼动率仍将在2026/2027年分别维持在120%以上和110%以上。N3营收预计将于2026年实现约翻倍增长，占台积电总营收的比重超过30%，其中HPC需求约占N3总需求的三分之二。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c9b5746e1d8d51ac35fb7c6d718335d\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"490\"/></p><p>N2方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>全系iPhone（A20/A20 Pro）、AMD Venice和MI450，以及联发科和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>旗舰SoC均于2026年采用N2制程，N2营收占比预计将从2026年的约4%增长至2027/2028年的15%和26%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e2e4be3beb2cd576b0121e32c251feb9\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"486\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_86482179\">积极扩产，2026至2028年资本开支料达1,900亿美元</h2><p>台积电2027年和2028年资本开支预测分别上调至635亿和705亿美元，预计台积电2026至2028年三年累计资本开支将达约1,900亿美元，几乎是2023至2025年约1,010亿美元的两倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3a34c38e8b9fa6d45cde40f9c2c441bb\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"596\"/></p><p>这一大规模支出反映台积电全力支持AI算力扩张的战略决心，背后是其客户的客户端营收高速增长以及token使用量的指数级扩张。<strong>预计先进制程（N7及以下节点）产能将在2025至2028年间实现16%的年复合增速。</strong></p><p><strong>全球产能版图同步加速扩张：</strong></p><blockquote><p>台湾方面，台积电正推进台南Fab 18 P9的N3扩产、高雄Fab 22 P1至P5的N2及A16产能建设，以及宝山Fab 20 P1至P4的建设；</p><p>长期规划方面，台中Fab 25将布局A14/A10节点，Fab 18亦有望新增P10至P12阶段（待土地审批），台南还有另一座面向A10/A7节点的八阶段新晶圆厂的早期规划。</p><p>海外方面，美国亚利桑那州Fab 21第二期N3量产时间有望提前至2027年年中，第三期N2产能则可能于2028年底至2029年上半年启动；日本熊本Fab 23第二期N3产能预计于2028年下半年开始量产。</p><p>先进封装方面，CoWoS产能预计于2026/2027年底分别达到11.5万和14.5万片/月，SoIC将于2027至2028年进入大规模投资阶段，NVIDIA Feynman、Google TPU v9、Trainium 4及OpenAI Titan 2等多款N2加速器有望采用SoIC架构。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/227b1660b9dbfa07a5fcc018b171e4f2\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"380\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2097891059\">毛利率超预期，上半年或创历史新高</h2><p>预计台积电一季度毛利率将达到66.8%，超出公司指引上限约180个基点，并在二季度维持66.4%的高位，较2025年下半年跳升逾550个基点。</p><p>报告列举了支撑毛利率超预期的五大因素：</p><blockquote><p>其一，N5与N3的稼动率持续超过100%；</p><p>其二，跨厂区运营（Cross-Fab）提升了N7和28nm产能的稼动率，降低闲置设备成本；</p><p>其三，HPC客户的"加急"和"超加急"晶圆订单（hot run/super-hot run）增加，该类订单可获得50%至100%的溢价；</p><p>其四，2026年先进制程约6%至10%的同类产品涨价已于1月起全面落地；</p><p>其五，台币对美元在过去两个月贬值逾1.5%，每贬值1%可带来约0.4个百分点的毛利率提升。</p></blockquote><p>保守预计2026年下半年毛利率将环比回落约400个基点，主要反映N2制程良率爬坡的稀释效应、海外晶圆厂（尤其是美国厂区快速扩建）的前期摊销，以及潜在的电费涨价影响。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4afd57e26994d5dcd94c6c913cb8a029\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"378\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3060363702\">财报前市场预期：一季度超预期，全年指引维持不变</h2><p>预计台积电一季度营收将环比增长7%，高于公司指引区间上限（3%至6%的环比增幅，对应335亿至358亿美元）；二季度指引预计为环比增长6%至8%（预估为8%），毛利率指引区间为64%至66%。</p><p>尽管需求持续向好，但报告预计台积电在本次财报电话会上不会调整全年数值指引，预计管理层将维持以下三项指引不变：</p><blockquote><p>2026年全年美元营收增速"接近30%"（预测为35%）；</p><p>2024至2029年AI营收五年复合增速为"中至高50%"；</p><p>以及2024至2029年公司美元营收长期年复合增速约25%。</p></blockquote><p>预计管理层在本次电话会将传递以下信号：</p><blockquote><p>对AI需求的乐观态度将有所强化；</p><p>对2027至2028年产能扩张计划的表态更为积极；</p><p>对苹果产业链强劲需求的着重强调；</p><p>美国N3和N2制程的加速扩产进展；</p><p>以及对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>TeraFab、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>代工业务等竞争态势保持充分信心。</p></blockquote><p>报告以约20倍12个月预期市盈率作为估值基准，对应目标价新台币2,400元，高于台积电五年历史均值市盈率，反映摩根大通对其结构性成长逻辑的高度认可。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/825899cefa46782eb801c401b4d761d3","relate_stocks":{"LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2041044095.USD":"Blackrock Circular Economy A2 USD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","IE00BFXG0V08.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU1211504680.USD":"ALLIANZ HIGH DIVIDEND ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","LU1323610961.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - LONG 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769376","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625938622","content_text":"AI算力需求的爆发式增长，正将台积电的先进制程产能推向前所未有的紧张状态。据追风交易台，摩根大通2026年4月2日发布研究报告，将台积电目标价从新台币2,250元上调至2,400元，预计台积电将在即将公布的一季度财报中毛利率料达66.8%，高于公司自身指引的63%至65%区间。推动上调的核心逻辑在于：以N3制程为代表的先进制程产能已被预订至2027年，供需失衡在过去两至三个月内进一步加剧。Agentic AI工作负载的强劲增长带动算力消耗呈指数级上升，而GPU、CPU及AI互联等多类产品的需求同步攀升，令台积电先进制程的稼动率持续突破100%。这一供需格局将支撑台积电毛利率在2026年上半年持续走高，并推动公司在2026至2028年三年间累计资本开支达到约1,900亿美元。AI算力需求骤升，N3产能预订已排至2027年过去两至三个月内，AI算力需求出现明显加速。Agentic AI工作负载的爆发——包括Claude Code、OpenClaw及其他AI实验室的类似产品上线后带动的token消耗量激增——是这一轮需求超预期的主要驱动力。与此同时，服务器AI互联产品（含网络芯片、DSP、retimer等）需求随算力扩张同步提升，Google Axion、Nvidia Grace、AWS Graviton、Microsoft Cobalt等服务器CPU的需求也出现明显回升。目前先进制程晶圆需求已大幅收紧，N3与N2产能对大多数HPC客户而言已被预订至2027年。NVIDIA Rubin、AWS Trainium 3、Meta MTIA等主要AI加速器正于2026年迁移至N3制程，叠加Google TPU（Ironwood及v8系列）和AMD MI系列的持续放量，N3供需失衡进一步加剧。尽管台积电正努力于2026年底前扩充产能，N3稼动率仍将在2026/2027年分别维持在120%以上和110%以上。N3营收预计将于2026年实现约翻倍增长，占台积电总营收的比重超过30%，其中HPC需求约占N3总需求的三分之二。N2方面，苹果全系iPhone（A20/A20 Pro）、AMD Venice和MI450，以及联发科和高通旗舰SoC均于2026年采用N2制程，N2营收占比预计将从2026年的约4%增长至2027/2028年的15%和26%。积极扩产，2026至2028年资本开支料达1,900亿美元台积电2027年和2028年资本开支预测分别上调至635亿和705亿美元，预计台积电2026至2028年三年累计资本开支将达约1,900亿美元，几乎是2023至2025年约1,010亿美元的两倍。这一大规模支出反映台积电全力支持AI算力扩张的战略决心，背后是其客户的客户端营收高速增长以及token使用量的指数级扩张。预计先进制程（N7及以下节点）产能将在2025至2028年间实现16%的年复合增速。全球产能版图同步加速扩张：台湾方面，台积电正推进台南Fab 18 P9的N3扩产、高雄Fab 22 P1至P5的N2及A16产能建设，以及宝山Fab 20 P1至P4的建设；长期规划方面，台中Fab 25将布局A14/A10节点，Fab 18亦有望新增P10至P12阶段（待土地审批），台南还有另一座面向A10/A7节点的八阶段新晶圆厂的早期规划。海外方面，美国亚利桑那州Fab 21第二期N3量产时间有望提前至2027年年中，第三期N2产能则可能于2028年底至2029年上半年启动；日本熊本Fab 23第二期N3产能预计于2028年下半年开始量产。先进封装方面，CoWoS产能预计于2026/2027年底分别达到11.5万和14.5万片/月，SoIC将于2027至2028年进入大规模投资阶段，NVIDIA Feynman、Google TPU v9、Trainium 4及OpenAI Titan 2等多款N2加速器有望采用SoIC架构。毛利率超预期，上半年或创历史新高预计台积电一季度毛利率将达到66.8%，超出公司指引上限约180个基点，并在二季度维持66.4%的高位，较2025年下半年跳升逾550个基点。报告列举了支撑毛利率超预期的五大因素：其一，N5与N3的稼动率持续超过100%；其二，跨厂区运营（Cross-Fab）提升了N7和28nm产能的稼动率，降低闲置设备成本；其三，HPC客户的\"加急\"和\"超加急\"晶圆订单（hot run/super-hot 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