麦_9439
04-07
给大家讲个笑话,小米是一家科技公司。按照贴牌厂的估值,小米,最多值2000亿,十块左右,如果汽车和手机被**持续碾压,可能最终合理估值1000亿,四五块。最坏的情况是,跌成神仙股。一两块。
小米遭遇知名私募怒怼争议焦点,今日市值再跌280多亿
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(USD)","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823039010.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS ASIA EQUITY FOCUS \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202604073696515530.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625993658","content_text":"21世纪经济报道记者董静怡 今天咱来聊聊最近有点“水逆”的——小米。 先看组数据。就在前几天,小米的股价一度跌到了30港元出头。可能光听数字没概念,你往回倒一倒,就在2025年年中的时候,小米那可是风光无限,股价冲到了61块多,妥妥的明星股。但现在呢?直接“腰斩”,半年多的时间,一万多亿港币的市值就这么蒸发了。 百亿级私募日斗投资的创始人王文先跳出来,在微博上连开“几炮”,意思很直接:你这小米,又是搞手机,又是搞汽车,现在又砸几百亿搞AI、搞机器人,你到底想干嘛?这哪是战略布局,分明是哪儿热往哪儿凑,主业都还没干明白呢。 这话一出,圈子里炸了锅,王文又赶紧出来找补说“小米是好公司”,但还是补了一刀,“主业不集中,不是我的菜”。 但这事儿特有意思。咱们反过来想:小米的模式,不就是靠“生态”吃饭的吗?怎么现在“生态”反而成了“原罪”了? 今天,咱就来扒一扒,小米的“人车家全生态”,到底是还没被看懂的万亿故事,还是真的讲不下去了? 首先,咱们得承认,这真不能全怪雷总“不务正业”。因为小米的老本行——手机,现在正遭遇一场“暴风雨”。 大家看最新财报,小米手机的毛利率,跌到了8.3%。做硬件本身就比做软件苦,8.3%这几乎是贴着成本线在裸奔了。 为啥?两个原因。第一,存储芯片大涨价。这两年AI太火,把HBM(高带宽内存)买断了,连带着手机内存也水涨船高。卢伟冰自己都说了,这压力还得扛好几个季度。第二,竞争太卷了。华为回归,苹果降价,荣耀、OPPO哪个都不是吃素的。小米想保市场份额,就得在价格上做让步。 所以你看,虽然小米2025全年财报看着很靓丽,总收入超4500亿,利润涨了40%多,但市场不买账啊。因为资本市场看的是预期。 这时候,就有人要问了:既然手机不好卖,那汽车呢?不是卖得挺火吗? 没错,小米SU7确实是现象级产品。2025年一年干了40多万辆交付,把一众新势力看得目瞪口呆。但造车是个烧钱的无底洞,更关键的是,汽车还在“以价换量”。 大家想想,YU7出来之后,SU7的价格是不是扛不住了?单车均价在往下走。再加上今年新能源价格战打得狠,小米汽车想完成2026年几十万台的销量目标,这利润空间会被挤压得非常薄。 再加上AI投入。雷总说了,今年AI研发投入160亿。这160亿砸进去,短期内能看到的,可能就是财报里的支出又多了160亿。 这就形成了一个 “剪刀差” :手机这个现金牛在“瘦身”,而汽车和AI这两只吞金兽在“增肥”。资本市场担心也就可以理解了。 但回到开头那个问题:小米真的没有长期规划吗? 我觉得恰恰相反。雷军的规划其实非常清晰,就是“抢入口”。手机是入口,汽车是下一个超级入口,AI是底层的操作系统。他的逻辑是:既然单纯的硬件不赚钱,那我就用硬件去圈住用户,用高黏性的生态来赚未来的钱。 这个逻辑,在互联网时代是无敌的。但在现在这个大环境下,最大的风险是,这个“未来”来得太慢了。 资本市场是很现实的。当你股价60块的时候,大家愿意陪你讲“星辰大海”的故事。但当股价跌到30块的时候,大家就要看“真金白银”了。 你要搞160亿的AI投入,没问题,但你得告诉我,这笔钱什么时候能变成实打实的利润?你要搞55万台的汽车交付,但怎么在价格战里保证不亏钱? 这其实就是王文说的“力出一孔,利出一孔”。当你的摊子铺得太大,资源被稀释,在每一个细分战场,你都可能打不过那些“全神贯注”的对手。毕竟,生态故事要讲下去,光靠“发烧”是不够的,还得靠“回血”。 当然,小米手里还有两千多亿现金,这是穿越周期的底气。我们还得让子弹飞一会儿,看看接下来两个季度的业务表现。 好了,今天关于小米的“中年危机”就聊到这。你对小米的未来怎么看?评论区聊聊。 (文章来源:21世纪经济报道)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"01810":1.97,"MIUmain":0.6,"XIACY":1.97,"HXXD.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":166,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/551082679363464"}
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