乐在极致
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码了这么多字，都是废话话
AI叙事生变！美股“买芯片、卖软件”拥挤交易现瓦解迹象
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23:32","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"AI叙事生变！美股“买芯片、卖软件”拥挤交易现瓦解迹象","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2650922165","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，2026年美股市场最流行的科技交易策略——买入芯片股、卖出软件股正出现瓦解的迹象。此前数月，市场担忧人工智能会侵蚀软件企业增长空间，软件板块持续遭抛售。与此同时，费城半导体指数在7月份下跌了12%，尽管该指数今年迄今仍上涨了78%，并刚刚创下有史以来最佳季度表现。AI叙事生变，“买芯片、卖软件”策略失灵了？上月，芯片股相对软件股录得史上最大单日超额收益，同时也出现过史上最大单日相对跌幅。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2026年美股市场最流行的科技交易策略——买入芯片股、卖出软件股正出现瓦解的迹象。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前数月，市场担忧人工智能(AI)会侵蚀软件企业增长空间，软件板块持续遭抛售。眼下该板块终于迎来反弹。与此同时，今年以来一直受益于人工智能强劲需求而飙升的芯片制造商却走势疲软，因为投资者质疑数万亿美元的人工智能资本支出计划中究竟有多少能够真正落实。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本月，一项广泛使用的软件指数上涨了2.2%，使其今年迄今为止的跌幅收窄至12%。与此同时，费城半导体指数在7月份下跌了12%，尽管该指数今年迄今仍上涨了78%，并刚刚创下有史以来最佳季度表现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e12e85ca474d0966271da0bd7e5a4313\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"200\" tg-height=\"120\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>AI叙事生变，“买芯片、卖软件”策略失灵了？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“当市场走向如此极端时，我的观点是应该适度反向布局，” Crossmark Global Investments首席投资官鲍勃·多尔表示。他一直在增持软件股，同时减持芯片股。“我不认为软件行业会倒闭，也不认为半导体行业发现了新的宝藏。把芯片行业捧上神坛，把软件行业贬得一文不值，这种做法未免有些极端。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">两大板块走势分化程度已创下历史记录。上月，芯片股相对软件股录得史上最大单日超额收益，同时也出现过史上最大单日相对跌幅。追溯至2001年的数据显示，芯片指数与软件指数40日相关性近期首次转负。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近期，华尔街唱多软件股的声音渐响。古根海姆上调了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">赛富时</a>(CRM.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>(NOW.US)和Check Point(CHKP.US)等三家软件公司的评级，并指出尽管人工智能可能会带来颠覆性影响，但此前关于该行业将走向毁灭的预测“纯属无稽之谈”。仅隔一日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>(ADBE.US)的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，并表示“市场高估了人工智能设计工具带来的负面影响”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，芯片板块的形势也变得更加严峻。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>周一发布亮眼财报，却未能带动板块反弹;媒体周二报道，中国DeepSeek正在研发用于人工智能系统的芯片，引发费城半导体指数大跌4.7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该消息戳中投资者最担忧的问题：对人工智能芯片及相关基础设施的需求可能不及预期。例如上周有消息称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>(META.US)计划对外出租算力，市场将其视作算力过剩的悲观信号，人工智能基础设施类股票遭到抛售。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">加拿大<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNS\">丰业银行</a>分析师纳特·辛德勒在7月1日的报告中写道：“悲观的解读是，一家大型超大规模数据中心运营商愿意出售过剩的算力资源，同时仍在投资前沿模型，这表明其内部需求低于产能，市场会对全行业未来资本开支预期打上问号。我们并非判断资本开支见顶，也不认为Meta放缓前沿技术布局，但这是投资者接下来会重点消化的利空逻辑。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场质疑情绪进一步升温：知名投资人迈克尔・伯里上周建仓做空<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">应用材料</a>(AMAT.US)以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a> 半导体ETF，他评价该ETF是“指数层面罕见的纯粹高估标的，高估特征一目了然”。此外，另一家在人工智能基础设施方面投入巨资的公司OpenAI原定今年秋季上市，但受科技股剧烈波动影响，据悉计划推迟至明年IPO。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>机构解读两大赛道：芯片高位存估值隐忧，软件走势两极分化</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">半导体波动率指数自年初以来近乎翻倍。BTIG首席市场技术分析师乔纳森·克林斯基在7月2日的报告中写道，这种波动剧烈的行情，加上该板块接近历史高位，“往好了说，表明将进入一段较长的盘整期;往坏了说，则意味着一轮幅度较大的见顶回调。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管如此，芯片股的基本面依然强劲。该板块2027年的盈利增长率预计将达到47%，这一预测值在最近几周大幅上调。相比之下，软件和服务板块今年的盈利增长率预计为16.5%，而且这一预期在过去几周持续下滑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Thornburg Investment Management的投资组合经理肖恩・孙表示：“人工智能改变了市场认知，软件行业高利润率、持续收入和稳定增长的商业模式不再具备长期确定性，这令市场开始重新审视该行业的最终价值。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Blueprint Equity 的联合创始人兼管理合伙人鲍比・奥坎波则认为，即便半导体行业基本面稳健，芯片股本轮上涨行情还能持续多久，市场仍存巨大疑问。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他表示：“问题不在于当下生意好不好，而在于股价是否已完全定价。只要行业增长持续，芯片仍是布局人工智能赛道的优质选择，但没人能预判数年之后的行业格局。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">软件板块的行情逻辑则更为复杂。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">奥坎波称：“我不确定行业估值能否重回2021年水平，尤其是在增长没有大幅加速的情况下。但当前市场一刀切地看待所有软件企业。如果软件公司在人工智能浪潮中处于劣势，那么估值底部遥遥无期;反之，若企业能依托人工智能实现增长，那么我们尚未看到天花板。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI叙事生变！美股“买芯片、卖软件”拥挤交易现瓦解迹象\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-09 23:32 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1465560.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2026年美股市场最流行的科技交易策略——买入芯片股、卖出软件股正出现瓦解的迹象。此前数月，市场担忧人工智能(AI)会侵蚀软件企业增长空间，软件板块持续遭抛售。眼下该板块终于迎来反弹。与此同时，今年以来一直受益于人工智能强劲需求而飙升的芯片制造商却走势疲软，因为投资者质疑数万亿美元的人工智能资本支出计划中究竟有多少能够真正落实。本月，一项广泛使用的软件指数上涨了2.2%，使其今年迄今为止的跌幅收窄...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1465560.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c95dc9b62af63b498dce2238fb18ba3","relate_stocks":{"SMH":"半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs","AMBQ":"Ambiq Micro","DIPS":"做空NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","USD":"ProShares Ultra Semiconductors","SMCI":"超微电脑","TSMG":"2倍做多TSM ETF- Leverage Shares","ON":"安森美半导体","SMTC":"先科电子","LABX":"Tradr 2X Long ALAB Daily ETF","STM":"意法半导体","TSMU":"2倍做多TSM ETF-GraniteShares","SMHX":"VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF","FTXL":"First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF","SWKS":"思佳讯","DAMD":"2倍做空AMD 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Investments首席投资官鲍勃·多尔表示。他一直在增持软件股，同时减持芯片股。“我不认为软件行业会倒闭，也不认为半导体行业发现了新的宝藏。把芯片行业捧上神坛，把软件行业贬得一文不值，这种做法未免有些极端。”两大板块走势分化程度已创下历史记录。上月，芯片股相对软件股录得史上最大单日超额收益，同时也出现过史上最大单日相对跌幅。追溯至2001年的数据显示，芯片指数与软件指数40日相关性近期首次转负。近期，华尔街唱多软件股的声音渐响。古根海姆上调了赛富时(CRM.US)、ServiceNow(NOW.US)和Check Point(CHKP.US)等三家软件公司的评级，并指出尽管人工智能可能会带来颠覆性影响，但此前关于该行业将走向毁灭的预测“纯属无稽之谈”。仅隔一日，汇丰将Adobe(ADBE.US)的评级从“持有”上调至“买入”，并表示“市场高估了人工智能设计工具带来的负面影响”。与此同时，芯片板块的形势也变得更加严峻。三星电子周一发布亮眼财报，却未能带动板块反弹;媒体周二报道，中国DeepSeek正在研发用于人工智能系统的芯片，引发费城半导体指数大跌4.7%。该消息戳中投资者最担忧的问题：对人工智能芯片及相关基础设施的需求可能不及预期。例如上周有消息称，Meta Platforms(META.US)计划对外出租算力，市场将其视作算力过剩的悲观信号，人工智能基础设施类股票遭到抛售。加拿大丰业银行分析师纳特·辛德勒在7月1日的报告中写道：“悲观的解读是，一家大型超大规模数据中心运营商愿意出售过剩的算力资源，同时仍在投资前沿模型，这表明其内部需求低于产能，市场会对全行业未来资本开支预期打上问号。我们并非判断资本开支见顶，也不认为Meta放缓前沿技术布局，但这是投资者接下来会重点消化的利空逻辑。”市场质疑情绪进一步升温：知名投资人迈克尔・伯里上周建仓做空英伟达(NVDA.US)、应用材料(AMAT.US)以及iShares 半导体ETF，他评价该ETF是“指数层面罕见的纯粹高估标的，高估特征一目了然”。此外，另一家在人工智能基础设施方面投入巨资的公司OpenAI原定今年秋季上市，但受科技股剧烈波动影响，据悉计划推迟至明年IPO。机构解读两大赛道：芯片高位存估值隐忧，软件走势两极分化半导体波动率指数自年初以来近乎翻倍。BTIG首席市场技术分析师乔纳森·克林斯基在7月2日的报告中写道，这种波动剧烈的行情，加上该板块接近历史高位，“往好了说，表明将进入一段较长的盘整期;往坏了说，则意味着一轮幅度较大的见顶回调。尽管如此，芯片股的基本面依然强劲。该板块2027年的盈利增长率预计将达到47%，这一预测值在最近几周大幅上调。相比之下，软件和服务板块今年的盈利增长率预计为16.5%，而且这一预期在过去几周持续下滑。Thornburg Investment Management的投资组合经理肖恩・孙表示：“人工智能改变了市场认知，软件行业高利润率、持续收入和稳定增长的商业模式不再具备长期确定性，这令市场开始重新审视该行业的最终价值。”Blueprint Equity 的联合创始人兼管理合伙人鲍比・奥坎波则认为，即便半导体行业基本面稳健，芯片股本轮上涨行情还能持续多久，市场仍存巨大疑问。他表示：“问题不在于当下生意好不好，而在于股价是否已完全定价。只要行业增长持续，芯片仍是布局人工智能赛道的优质选择，但没人能预判数年之后的行业格局。”软件板块的行情逻辑则更为复杂。奥坎波称：“我不确定行业估值能否重回2021年水平，尤其是在增长没有大幅加速的情况下。但当前市场一刀切地看待所有软件企业。如果软件公司在人工智能浪潮中处于劣势，那么估值底部遥遥无期;反之，若企业能依托人工智能实现增长，那么我们尚未看到天花板。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNPS":2,"AMDG":0.6,"USD":2,"CRDU":0.6,"SMCX":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SNDQ":0.6,"XSD":2,"INTC":2,"SMTC":2,"AMDL":0.6,"SOXL":2,"SMCI":2,"SMHX":2,"Q":2,"SNDG":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"AMAT":2,"SOXQ":2,"SOXX":2,"TSMX":0.6,"SOXM":2,"NVDS":0.6,"LRCU":0.6,"KLAC":2,"NVD":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"STM":2,"NVTX":0.6,"ADI":2,"ARMW":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"SMH":2,"SNPX":0.6,"NVTS":2,"SOX":1.9,"FTXL":2,"SSG":2,"NVDL":0.6,"UCTT":2,"QCMU":0.6,"SOXS":2,"AVGW":0.6,"TSMU":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"MRVL":2,"NVDW":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"SMCY":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"AVGU":0.6,"SWKS":2,"ARMG":0.6,"STX":2,"ON":2,"TSM":2,"ARM":2,"GFS":2,"SNDC":0.6,"07388":0.6,"QCMD":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"ASML":2,"DAMD":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"LABX":0.6,"ALAB":2,"QCOM":2,"CHPY":2,"MU":2,"SNDU":0.6,"SMCL":0.6,"SMCZ":0.6,"WDC":2,"DIPS":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"MVLL":0.6,"QCML":0.6,"NVDA":2,"CRDO":2,"HIMX":2,"07788":0.6,"MRVU":0.6,"AVGX":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"UMC":2,"AVS":0.6,"INTW":0.6,"TSMY":0.6,"SNDK":2,"MCHP":2,"WDCX":0.6,"ARMU":0.6,"ASMG":0.6,"TSMZ":0.6,"AMBQ":2,"ASMU":0.6,"TXN":2,"PXLW":2,"AMBA":2,"AMDW":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"KLAG":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"STSM":0.6,"LINT":0.6,"TSMG":0.6,"SMYY":0.6,"WOLF":2,"AVGO":2,"QRVO":2,"NVDQ":0.6,"NXPI":2,"AMDD":0.6,"AMD":2,"LRCX":2,"NVDU":0.6,"SMCC":0.6,"LSCC":2,"AMYY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":283,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":23,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/584098965401776"}
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