But it isn_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-11-29

But it isn't ending and $游戏驿站(GME)$should worth at least $600 at current float now

If The Meme Stock Craze Is Ending, GameStop Isn't Worth Much<blockquote>如果模因股票热潮即将结束，游戏驿站就不值钱了</blockquote>

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Venus_M
2021-11-29
Venus_M
time will proof to them

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My last article in November 2020 explained a short-term oversold condition around $20 a share. Luckily, I made a little profit on that position, and escaped before the once-in-a-lifetime short squeeze completely took hold. With the help of incredible buying volumes by small retail investors following website recommendations (the meme craze of early 2021), GameStop rose from $18 on the first trading day of January to $483 by the end of that month! That’s the kind of superb percentage Big Tech gain witnessed over a decade or two, not a few trading weeks. Literally, fortunes were made and lost in GameStop during 2020-21 (depending on your side of the trade).<blockquote>多年来，我写了许多关于游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）的文章，其中大部分是看涨的，也有一篇是看跌的。我在2020年11月发表的上一篇文章解释了每股20美元左右的短期超卖状况。幸运的是，我在那个头寸上赚了一点利润，并在千载难逢的空头挤压完全发生之前逃脱了。在小散户投资者遵循网站推荐（2021年初的meme热潮）的惊人购买量的帮助下，游戏驿站从1月第一个交易日的18美元上涨到了当月底的483美元！这是十年或二十年来（而不是几个交易周）大型科技公司所见证的惊人百分比涨幅。从字面上看，2020-21年期间，游戏驿站赚了又赔了（取决于你的行业）。</blockquote> Anyway, the stock has flatlined or declined in price ever since this momentous short squeeze forced a number of hedge funds to cover (purchase) the stock at horrific loss levels. A good ten months later, investors in the stock need to ask themselves: what is the underlying business really worth, if the 2021 stock market bubble is starting to burst? My answer is the downside could be enormous, and all shareholders should seriously consider taking some money (especially large profits) off the table.<blockquote>无论如何，自从这次重大的轧空迫使许多对冲基金以可怕的损失水平回补（购买）该股以来，该股的价格已经持平或下跌。整整十个月后，该股的投资者需要问自己：如果2021年股市泡沫开始破裂，基础业务的真正价值是多少？我的回答是，负面影响可能是巨大的，所有股东都应该认真考虑撤掉一些钱（尤其是巨额利润）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7270f7dee1050f5c9aa24ab14c85d892\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"589\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Source: Company Website November 26th, 2021<blockquote>图片来源：公司网站2021年11月26日</blockquote> Weak Consensus Outlook<blockquote>共识前景疲弱</blockquote> Wall Street analysts following actual business trends are not very optimistic on GameStop’s immediate future. Below are their forecasts for fiscal 2022 (the current year) and 2023. Sales are not projected to grow by leaps and bounds to justify the price surge from a year ago, and the company is struggling to report an operating profit as currently configured.<blockquote>关注实际商业趋势的华尔街分析师对游戏驿站近期的前景并不十分乐观。以下是他们对2022财年（本年度）和2023财年的预测。预计销售额不会出现突飞猛进的增长，以证明价格较一年前飙升的合理性，而且该公司正在努力报告目前配置的营业利润。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/663ae1c457ad76bab8cfc99cd71c7fa7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> Again, Seeking Alpha’s grades of the stock setup and computerized quant scoring of earnings and equity trading momentum leave a lot to be desired in late 2021. If you are looking for strong value or high growth rates, GameStop fails miserably as a buy idea.<blockquote>同样，Seeking Alpha的股票设置评级以及盈利和股票交易势头的计算机化量化评分在2021年底还有很多不足之处。如果你正在寻找强大的价值或高增长率，游戏驿站作为一个买入想法失败了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3728f92df6c28084beba26a290e9012\" tg-width=\"323\" tg-height=\"225\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> Clear Overvaluation<blockquote>明显高估</blockquote> Sure, the gaming industry is growing, and the enterprise has a retail niche to play for consumers, but does the valuation of the stock match reality? My answer is a resounding NO. While the $5 price of 18-24 months ago was extremely undervalued (I said so in previous articles), today’s $200 price is the polar opposite for overvaluation. I come up with a long-term underlying worth closer to $50 for GameStop. Below are some stats to explain why.<blockquote>当然，游戏行业正在增长，企业有一个面向消费者的零售利基市场，但股票的估值与现实相符吗？我的回答是响亮的不。虽然18-24个月前5美元的价格被极度低估（我在以前的文章中说过），但今天200美元的价格与高估截然相反。我为游戏驿站提出了价值接近50美元的长期基础资产。下面是一些统计数据来解释原因。</blockquote> The company does not earn a profit today, the primary goal of any business operation. Compared to other national third-party gaming retailers Best Buy(NYSE:BBY)&nbsp;or Walmart(NYSE:WMT), GameStop is uniquely unprofitable as a competitor. And, if you can choose where to put your investment capital, why not pick a higher profit margin game developer like Electronic Arts(NASDAQ:EA), Activision Blizzard(NASDAQ:ATVI)&nbsp;or Take-Two(NASDAQ:TTWO)?<blockquote>该公司今天不赚取利润，这是任何业务运营的首要目标。与其他全国性第三方游戏零售商百思买（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BBY）或沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）相比，游戏驿站作为竞争对手是独一无二的无利可图。而且，如果您可以选择将投资资金投向何处，为什么不选择利润率更高的游戏开发商，如艺电（纳斯达克：EA）、动视暴雪（纳斯达克：ATVI）或Take-Two（纳斯达克：TTWO）？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b62c51578b951efbc8aa5cbb59ae2e5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Let’s review a decade of trading history revolving around the equity’s price to trailing sales, cash flow, and book value. On these underlying fundamental metrics, GameStop is currently valued at 3x to 5x its 10-year average setup!<blockquote>让我们回顾一下围绕股票价格、跟踪销售额、现金流和账面价值的十年交易历史。根据这些基本指标，游戏驿站目前的估值是其10年平均水平的3至5倍！</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f0a321962bf675844ffb971880d302\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Versus the peer group, GameStop is in nosebleed territory vs. profitable retailers on price to sales, and is approaching the high valuation multiples of the super-profitable game development businesses.<blockquote>与同行相比，游戏驿站在市销率方面与盈利零售商相比处于令人流鼻血的境地，并且正在接近超盈利游戏开发业务的高估值倍数。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8b9dbeed0649d2a1945c7736e85d09\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> On price to cash flow, $200 a share fails miserably for a fair valuation. It is double the ratio of gamers and 4x the ratio of retailers. Keep in mind all of the group actually churns out income for owners, while GameStop does not.<blockquote>就价格与现金流相比，每股200美元的估值很难达到公平的估值。是游戏玩家比例的两倍，零售商比例的4倍。请记住，整个集团实际上为所有者创造了收入，而游戏驿站则没有。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b5d358ce5fdf9e494a186731438120\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Again, on price to book value, GameStop is the most expensive by far. The fascinating note to contemplate: a year and a half ago, the valuation story was completely reversed, with GME the cheapest of the group, hands down no argument, on every single fundamental comparison. Smart investors/traders look for deep value to buy, while selling out after price has risen above fair value, like today.<blockquote>同样，就市净率而言，游戏驿站是迄今为止最昂贵的。值得思考的有趣的一点是：一年半前，估值情况完全逆转，在每一项基本面比较中，GME都是该集团中最便宜的，毫无疑问。聪明的投资者/交易者寻找深度价值买入，而在价格升至公允价值以上后卖出，就像今天一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77464405fcdb05f40d732c7885818f53\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Short Squeeze Fuel Exhausted<blockquote>短挤压燃料耗尽</blockquote> The bad news for short-term investors is the “tackling fuel” for the monster climb in January is gone. The short position is relatively normal today against other U.S. stocks, as opposed to its uniquely outsized setup going into 2021. If you are hoping for a move to $300 or even higher soon, the mathematical odds say that’s a longshot to happen.<blockquote>对于短期投资者来说，坏消息是一月份大幅上涨的“应对燃料”已经消失。今天相对于其他美国股票的空头头寸相对正常，而不是其进入2021年独特的超大设置。如果您希望价格很快升至300美元甚至更高，那么从数学上看，这种可能性很小。</blockquote> The stats today are 8.9% of outstanding shares have been shorted, and all shorts could be covered over 2.7 days of typical trading volume. These numbers are a far cry from December’s 110% of total shares outstanding or February 2020’s days to cover of 24x.<blockquote>今天的统计数据显示，8.9%的流通股已被做空，所有空头可以在2.7天的典型交易量内得到回补。这些数字与12月份已发行股票总数的110%或2020年2月的24倍相去甚远。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e6a58aec26f6248ade64ad6835ea59\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> In fact, against the gaming peer group, GameStop’s short position stands at a decade low, and is more typical of the group’s short interest of five years ago. This idea is graphed below.<blockquote>事实上，与博彩同行集团相比，游戏驿站的空头头寸处于十年来的低点，更典型的是该集团五年前的空头兴趣。这个想法如下图所示。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd8b01e08fdc69d2d27e3dfb2ffafad\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Technical Chart Pattern<blockquote>技术图表形态</blockquote> While the chart pattern was basing with positive underlying momentum at $5 a share 18 months ago, today the technical picture is weak during a more volatile zig-zag pattern. Price is doing its best to remain above the important 200-day moving average around $183 currently, and the blip higher in November is a short-term positive. However, my favorite momentum indicators are either bearish or neutral on the stock. The&nbsp;Accumulation/Distribution Line&nbsp;and&nbsp;Negative Volume Index&nbsp;are amazingly weak for a stock not in price decline, while&nbsp;On Balance Volume&nbsp;has done nothing positive since March. It appears trading activity has been a standoff between small aggressive retail buyers and regular selling by hedge funds and institutions. Who will break the tie?<blockquote>虽然18个月前图表形态以每股5美元的积极潜在势头为基础，但今天技术面在波动性更大的之字形形态中疲弱。目前，价格正在尽最大努力保持在183美元左右的重要200日移动均线之上，11月份的小幅走高是短期利好。然而，我最喜欢的动量指标要么看跌，要么中性。The累积/分配线和负成交量指数对于一只价格没有下跌的股票来说，其表现出奇的疲软，而平衡量自三月份以来没有做过任何积极的事情。交易活动似乎一直是激进的小型散户买家与对冲基金和机构的定期抛售之间的僵局。谁来打破平局？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3e66ff9663d595f8dd991a65341d490\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cad7208af551c11c842e4a5daf682182\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Final Thoughts<blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote> Would I short GameStop around $200 a share? I am not currently contemplating such a trade, because it is “the” posterchild of the meme craze. Plus, I can see a resurgence in Covid-19 spread over the winter causing some money to flow into stay-at-home entertainment names, like those in the gaming industry. However, a price break below $183 (the 200-day moving average) could mean a serious sell-off from its overvaluation plateau may be starting.<blockquote>我会在每股200美元左右做空游戏驿站吗？我目前没有考虑这样的交易，因为它是迷因热潮的典型代表。此外，我可以看到Covid-19的复苏在整个冬季蔓延，导致一些资金流入家庭娱乐公司，例如游戏行业的公司。然而，价格跌破183美元（200日移动平均线）可能意味着从高估平台开始严重抛售。</blockquote> I come up with possible upside of $250 a share in 12 months, to a worst-case scenario well under $100 per share. I rate the shares aNeutraltoAvoidselection for rational investors. There are hundreds of other stocks with better risk/reward setups than GameStop. And, I write about the strongest buy propositions I can find on Wall Street in my articles. All told, I would prefer to own any of the five peer companies mentioned in this article over GameStop for buy-and-hold portfolio designs. I specifically suggested Walmart several weeks ago&nbsp;here&nbsp;as a defensive blue-chip buy candidate.<blockquote>我认为12个月内每股可能上涨250美元，最坏的情况是远低于每股100美元。我将股票评级为a中立的到避免理性投资者的选择。还有数百只其他股票的风险/回报设置比游戏驿站更好。而且，我在文章中写下了我在华尔街能找到的最强烈的买入主张。总而言之，对于买入并持有的投资组合设计，我更愿意持有本文中提到的五家同行公司中的任何一家，而不是游戏驿站。几周前，我在这里特别建议沃尔玛作为防御性蓝筹股买入候选者。</blockquote> If you hold shares, I absolutely think it prudent to lighten up your position in case a major bear market hits the U.S. equity market into 2022. Under such a scenario, newbie and weaker-hand owners of the stock could sell en masse, just like they bought during January. If business sales trends fail to meet expectations in a recession next year, valuations may not support the stock until $100 or even $50 a share is reached. At least, that’s how past recessions and stock market busts have affected leading mania picks, opposite of the straight up ride during the boom.<blockquote>如果你持有股票，我绝对认为减仓是谨慎的，以防2022年美国股市遭遇重大熊市。在这种情况下，该股票的新手和实力较弱的所有者可以集体出售，就像他们在一月份购买一样。如果明年经济衰退时企业销售趋势未能达到预期，那么在达到每股100美元甚至50美元之前，估值可能无法支撑该股。至少，这就是过去的经济衰退和股市崩盘如何影响领先的狂热选择，而不是繁荣期间的直线上涨。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>If The Meme Stock Craze Is Ending, GameStop Isn't Worth Much<blockquote>如果模因股票热潮即将结束，游戏驿站就不值钱了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf The Meme Stock Craze Is Ending, GameStop Isn't Worth Much<blockquote>如果模因股票热潮即将结束，游戏驿站就不值钱了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-11-29 16:06\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>The meme trading craze looks to have ended, threatening GameStop's share supply/demand balance.</li> <li>Valuations have overshot any rational financial analysis or backing by the underlying business.</li> <li>GameStop's short squeeze fuel no longer exists.</li> <li>Potential downside appears to be far greater than upside for 2022.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c504bf771310b22472840a7831500c8\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1096\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Ethan Miller/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>迷因交易热潮似乎已经结束，威胁到游戏驿站的股票供需平衡。</li><li>估值已经超出了任何理性的财务分析或基础业务的支持。</li><li>游戏驿站的空头挤压燃料不复存在。</li><li>2022年的潜在下行空间似乎远大于上行空间。</li></ul>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> I have written a number of articles on GameStop(NYSE:GME)&nbsp;over the years, mostly bullish and one bearish take on the stock. My last article in November 2020 explained a short-term oversold condition around $20 a share. Luckily, I made a little profit on that position, and escaped before the once-in-a-lifetime short squeeze completely took hold. With the help of incredible buying volumes by small retail investors following website recommendations (the meme craze of early 2021), GameStop rose from $18 on the first trading day of January to $483 by the end of that month! That’s the kind of superb percentage Big Tech gain witnessed over a decade or two, not a few trading weeks. Literally, fortunes were made and lost in GameStop during 2020-21 (depending on your side of the trade).<blockquote>多年来，我写了许多关于游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）的文章，其中大部分是看涨的，也有一篇是看跌的。我在2020年11月发表的上一篇文章解释了每股20美元左右的短期超卖状况。幸运的是，我在那个头寸上赚了一点利润，并在千载难逢的空头挤压完全发生之前逃脱了。在小散户投资者遵循网站推荐（2021年初的meme热潮）的惊人购买量的帮助下，游戏驿站从1月第一个交易日的18美元上涨到了当月底的483美元！这是十年或二十年来（而不是几个交易周）大型科技公司所见证的惊人百分比涨幅。从字面上看，2020-21年期间，游戏驿站赚了又赔了（取决于你的行业）。</blockquote> Anyway, the stock has flatlined or declined in price ever since this momentous short squeeze forced a number of hedge funds to cover (purchase) the stock at horrific loss levels. A good ten months later, investors in the stock need to ask themselves: what is the underlying business really worth, if the 2021 stock market bubble is starting to burst? My answer is the downside could be enormous, and all shareholders should seriously consider taking some money (especially large profits) off the table.<blockquote>无论如何，自从这次重大的轧空迫使许多对冲基金以可怕的损失水平回补（购买）该股以来，该股的价格已经持平或下跌。整整十个月后，该股的投资者需要问自己：如果2021年股市泡沫开始破裂，基础业务的真正价值是多少？我的回答是，负面影响可能是巨大的，所有股东都应该认真考虑撤掉一些钱（尤其是巨额利润）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7270f7dee1050f5c9aa24ab14c85d892\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"589\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image Source: Company Website November 26th, 2021<blockquote>图片来源：公司网站2021年11月26日</blockquote> Weak Consensus Outlook<blockquote>共识前景疲弱</blockquote> Wall Street analysts following actual business trends are not very optimistic on GameStop’s immediate future. Below are their forecasts for fiscal 2022 (the current year) and 2023. Sales are not projected to grow by leaps and bounds to justify the price surge from a year ago, and the company is struggling to report an operating profit as currently configured.<blockquote>关注实际商业趋势的华尔街分析师对游戏驿站近期的前景并不十分乐观。以下是他们对2022财年（本年度）和2023财年的预测。预计销售额不会出现突飞猛进的增长，以证明价格较一年前飙升的合理性，而且该公司正在努力报告目前配置的营业利润。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/663ae1c457ad76bab8cfc99cd71c7fa7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> Again, Seeking Alpha’s grades of the stock setup and computerized quant scoring of earnings and equity trading momentum leave a lot to be desired in late 2021. If you are looking for strong value or high growth rates, GameStop fails miserably as a buy idea.<blockquote>同样，Seeking Alpha的股票设置评级以及盈利和股票交易势头的计算机化量化评分在2021年底还有很多不足之处。如果你正在寻找强大的价值或高增长率，游戏驿站作为一个买入想法失败了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3728f92df6c28084beba26a290e9012\" tg-width=\"323\" tg-height=\"225\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> Clear Overvaluation<blockquote>明显高估</blockquote> Sure, the gaming industry is growing, and the enterprise has a retail niche to play for consumers, but does the valuation of the stock match reality? My answer is a resounding NO. While the $5 price of 18-24 months ago was extremely undervalued (I said so in previous articles), today’s $200 price is the polar opposite for overvaluation. I come up with a long-term underlying worth closer to $50 for GameStop. Below are some stats to explain why.<blockquote>当然，游戏行业正在增长，企业有一个面向消费者的零售利基市场，但股票的估值与现实相符吗？我的回答是响亮的不。虽然18-24个月前5美元的价格被极度低估（我在以前的文章中说过），但今天200美元的价格与高估截然相反。我为游戏驿站提出了价值接近50美元的长期基础资产。下面是一些统计数据来解释原因。</blockquote> The company does not earn a profit today, the primary goal of any business operation. Compared to other national third-party gaming retailers Best Buy(NYSE:BBY)&nbsp;or Walmart(NYSE:WMT), GameStop is uniquely unprofitable as a competitor. And, if you can choose where to put your investment capital, why not pick a higher profit margin game developer like Electronic Arts(NASDAQ:EA), Activision Blizzard(NASDAQ:ATVI)&nbsp;or Take-Two(NASDAQ:TTWO)?<blockquote>该公司今天不赚取利润，这是任何业务运营的首要目标。与其他全国性第三方游戏零售商百思买（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BBY）或沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）相比，游戏驿站作为竞争对手是独一无二的无利可图。而且，如果您可以选择将投资资金投向何处，为什么不选择利润率更高的游戏开发商，如艺电（纳斯达克：EA）、动视暴雪（纳斯达克：ATVI）或Take-Two（纳斯达克：TTWO）？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b62c51578b951efbc8aa5cbb59ae2e5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Let’s review a decade of trading history revolving around the equity’s price to trailing sales, cash flow, and book value. On these underlying fundamental metrics, GameStop is currently valued at 3x to 5x its 10-year average setup!<blockquote>让我们回顾一下围绕股票价格、跟踪销售额、现金流和账面价值的十年交易历史。根据这些基本指标，游戏驿站目前的估值是其10年平均水平的3至5倍！</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f0a321962bf675844ffb971880d302\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Versus the peer group, GameStop is in nosebleed territory vs. profitable retailers on price to sales, and is approaching the high valuation multiples of the super-profitable game development businesses.<blockquote>与同行相比，游戏驿站在市销率方面与盈利零售商相比处于令人流鼻血的境地，并且正在接近超盈利游戏开发业务的高估值倍数。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af8b9dbeed0649d2a1945c7736e85d09\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> On price to cash flow, $200 a share fails miserably for a fair valuation. It is double the ratio of gamers and 4x the ratio of retailers. Keep in mind all of the group actually churns out income for owners, while GameStop does not.<blockquote>就价格与现金流相比，每股200美元的估值很难达到公平的估值。是游戏玩家比例的两倍，零售商比例的4倍。请记住，整个集团实际上为所有者创造了收入，而游戏驿站则没有。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31b5d358ce5fdf9e494a186731438120\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Again, on price to book value, GameStop is the most expensive by far. The fascinating note to contemplate: a year and a half ago, the valuation story was completely reversed, with GME the cheapest of the group, hands down no argument, on every single fundamental comparison. Smart investors/traders look for deep value to buy, while selling out after price has risen above fair value, like today.<blockquote>同样，就市净率而言，游戏驿站是迄今为止最昂贵的。值得思考的有趣的一点是：一年半前，估值情况完全逆转，在每一项基本面比较中，GME都是该集团中最便宜的，毫无疑问。聪明的投资者/交易者寻找深度价值买入，而在价格升至公允价值以上后卖出，就像今天一样。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77464405fcdb05f40d732c7885818f53\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Short Squeeze Fuel Exhausted<blockquote>短挤压燃料耗尽</blockquote> The bad news for short-term investors is the “tackling fuel” for the monster climb in January is gone. The short position is relatively normal today against other U.S. stocks, as opposed to its uniquely outsized setup going into 2021. If you are hoping for a move to $300 or even higher soon, the mathematical odds say that’s a longshot to happen.<blockquote>对于短期投资者来说，坏消息是一月份大幅上涨的“应对燃料”已经消失。今天相对于其他美国股票的空头头寸相对正常，而不是其进入2021年独特的超大设置。如果您希望价格很快升至300美元甚至更高，那么从数学上看，这种可能性很小。</blockquote> The stats today are 8.9% of outstanding shares have been shorted, and all shorts could be covered over 2.7 days of typical trading volume. These numbers are a far cry from December’s 110% of total shares outstanding or February 2020’s days to cover of 24x.<blockquote>今天的统计数据显示，8.9%的流通股已被做空，所有空头可以在2.7天的典型交易量内得到回补。这些数字与12月份已发行股票总数的110%或2020年2月的24倍相去甚远。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e6a58aec26f6248ade64ad6835ea59\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> In fact, against the gaming peer group, GameStop’s short position stands at a decade low, and is more typical of the group’s short interest of five years ago. This idea is graphed below.<blockquote>事实上，与博彩同行集团相比，游戏驿站的空头头寸处于十年来的低点，更典型的是该集团五年前的空头兴趣。这个想法如下图所示。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd8b01e08fdc69d2d27e3dfb2ffafad\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Technical Chart Pattern<blockquote>技术图表形态</blockquote> While the chart pattern was basing with positive underlying momentum at $5 a share 18 months ago, today the technical picture is weak during a more volatile zig-zag pattern. Price is doing its best to remain above the important 200-day moving average around $183 currently, and the blip higher in November is a short-term positive. However, my favorite momentum indicators are either bearish or neutral on the stock. The&nbsp;Accumulation/Distribution Line&nbsp;and&nbsp;Negative Volume Index&nbsp;are amazingly weak for a stock not in price decline, while&nbsp;On Balance Volume&nbsp;has done nothing positive since March. It appears trading activity has been a standoff between small aggressive retail buyers and regular selling by hedge funds and institutions. Who will break the tie?<blockquote>虽然18个月前图表形态以每股5美元的积极潜在势头为基础，但今天技术面在波动性更大的之字形形态中疲弱。目前，价格正在尽最大努力保持在183美元左右的重要200日移动均线之上，11月份的小幅走高是短期利好。然而，我最喜欢的动量指标要么看跌，要么中性。The累积/分配线和负成交量指数对于一只价格没有下跌的股票来说，其表现出奇的疲软，而平衡量自三月份以来没有做过任何积极的事情。交易活动似乎一直是激进的小型散户买家与对冲基金和机构的定期抛售之间的僵局。谁来打破平局？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3e66ff9663d595f8dd991a65341d490\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cad7208af551c11c842e4a5daf682182\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Final Thoughts<blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote> Would I short GameStop around $200 a share? I am not currently contemplating such a trade, because it is “the” posterchild of the meme craze. Plus, I can see a resurgence in Covid-19 spread over the winter causing some money to flow into stay-at-home entertainment names, like those in the gaming industry. However, a price break below $183 (the 200-day moving average) could mean a serious sell-off from its overvaluation plateau may be starting.<blockquote>我会在每股200美元左右做空游戏驿站吗？我目前没有考虑这样的交易，因为它是迷因热潮的典型代表。此外，我可以看到Covid-19的复苏在整个冬季蔓延，导致一些资金流入家庭娱乐公司，例如游戏行业的公司。然而，价格跌破183美元（200日移动平均线）可能意味着从高估平台开始严重抛售。</blockquote> I come up with possible upside of $250 a share in 12 months, to a worst-case scenario well under $100 per share. I rate the shares aNeutraltoAvoidselection for rational investors. There are hundreds of other stocks with better risk/reward setups than GameStop. And, I write about the strongest buy propositions I can find on Wall Street in my articles. All told, I would prefer to own any of the five peer companies mentioned in this article over GameStop for buy-and-hold portfolio designs. I specifically suggested Walmart several weeks ago&nbsp;here&nbsp;as a defensive blue-chip buy candidate.<blockquote>我认为12个月内每股可能上涨250美元，最坏的情况是远低于每股100美元。我将股票评级为a中立的到避免理性投资者的选择。还有数百只其他股票的风险/回报设置比游戏驿站更好。而且，我在文章中写下了我在华尔街能找到的最强烈的买入主张。总而言之，对于买入并持有的投资组合设计，我更愿意持有本文中提到的五家同行公司中的任何一家，而不是游戏驿站。几周前，我在这里特别建议沃尔玛作为防御性蓝筹股买入候选者。</blockquote> If you hold shares, I absolutely think it prudent to lighten up your position in case a major bear market hits the U.S. equity market into 2022. Under such a scenario, newbie and weaker-hand owners of the stock could sell en masse, just like they bought during January. If business sales trends fail to meet expectations in a recession next year, valuations may not support the stock until $100 or even $50 a share is reached. At least, that’s how past recessions and stock market busts have affected leading mania picks, opposite of the straight up ride during the boom.<blockquote>如果你持有股票，我绝对认为减仓是谨慎的，以防2022年美国股市遭遇重大熊市。在这种情况下，该股票的新手和实力较弱的所有者可以集体出售，就像他们在一月份购买一样。如果明年经济衰退时企业销售趋势未能达到预期，那么在达到每股100美元甚至50美元之前，估值可能无法支撑该股。至少，这就是过去的经济衰退和股市崩盘如何影响领先的狂热选择，而不是繁荣期间的直线上涨。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472163-meme-stock-craze-ending-gamestop-worth\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472163-meme-stock-craze-ending-gamestop-worth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137228068","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe meme trading craze looks to have ended, threatening GameStop's share supply/demand balance.\nValuations have overshot any rational financial analysis or backing by the underlying business.\nGameStop's short squeeze fuel no longer exists.\nPotential downside appears to be far greater than upside for 2022.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nI have written a number of articles on GameStop(NYSE:GME) over the years, mostly bullish and one bearish take on the stock. My last article in November 2020 explained a short-term oversold condition around $20 a share. Luckily, I made a little profit on that position, and escaped before the once-in-a-lifetime short squeeze completely took hold. With the help of incredible buying volumes by small retail investors following website recommendations (the meme craze of early 2021), GameStop rose from $18 on the first trading day of January to $483 by the end of that month! That’s the kind of superb percentage Big Tech gain witnessed over a decade or two, not a few trading weeks. Literally, fortunes were made and lost in GameStop during 2020-21 (depending on your side of the trade).\nAnyway, the stock has flatlined or declined in price ever since this momentous short squeeze forced a number of hedge funds to cover (purchase) the stock at horrific loss levels. A good ten months later, investors in the stock need to ask themselves: what is the underlying business really worth, if the 2021 stock market bubble is starting to burst? My answer is the downside could be enormous, and all shareholders should seriously consider taking some money (especially large profits) off the table.\nImage Source: Company Website November 26th, 2021\nWeak Consensus Outlook\nWall Street analysts following actual business trends are not very optimistic on GameStop’s immediate future. Below are their forecasts for fiscal 2022 (the current year) and 2023. Sales are not projected to grow by leaps and bounds to justify the price surge from a year ago, and the company is struggling to report an operating profit as currently configured.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAgain, Seeking Alpha’s grades of the stock setup and computerized quant scoring of earnings and equity trading momentum leave a lot to be desired in late 2021. If you are looking for strong value or high growth rates, GameStop fails miserably as a buy idea.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nClear Overvaluation\nSure, the gaming industry is growing, and the enterprise has a retail niche to play for consumers, but does the valuation of the stock match reality? My answer is a resounding NO. While the $5 price of 18-24 months ago was extremely undervalued (I said so in previous articles), today’s $200 price is the polar opposite for overvaluation. I come up with a long-term underlying worth closer to $50 for GameStop. Below are some stats to explain why.\nThe company does not earn a profit today, the primary goal of any business operation. Compared to other national third-party gaming retailers Best Buy(NYSE:BBY) or Walmart(NYSE:WMT), GameStop is uniquely unprofitable as a competitor. And, if you can choose where to put your investment capital, why not pick a higher profit margin game developer like Electronic Arts(NASDAQ:EA), Activision Blizzard(NASDAQ:ATVI) or Take-Two(NASDAQ:TTWO)?\n\nLet’s review a decade of trading history revolving around the equity’s price to trailing sales, cash flow, and book value. On these underlying fundamental metrics, GameStop is currently valued at 3x to 5x its 10-year average setup!\n\nVersus the peer group, GameStop is in nosebleed territory vs. profitable retailers on price to sales, and is approaching the high valuation multiples of the super-profitable game development businesses.\n\nOn price to cash flow, $200 a share fails miserably for a fair valuation. It is double the ratio of gamers and 4x the ratio of retailers. Keep in mind all of the group actually churns out income for owners, while GameStop does not.\n\nAgain, on price to book value, GameStop is the most expensive by far. The fascinating note to contemplate: a year and a half ago, the valuation story was completely reversed, with GME the cheapest of the group, hands down no argument, on every single fundamental comparison. Smart investors/traders look for deep value to buy, while selling out after price has risen above fair value, like today.\n\nShort Squeeze Fuel Exhausted\nThe bad news for short-term investors is the “tackling fuel” for the monster climb in January is gone. The short position is relatively normal today against other U.S. stocks, as opposed to its uniquely outsized setup going into 2021. If you are hoping for a move to $300 or even higher soon, the mathematical odds say that’s a longshot to happen.\nThe stats today are 8.9% of outstanding shares have been shorted, and all shorts could be covered over 2.7 days of typical trading volume. These numbers are a far cry from December’s 110% of total shares outstanding or February 2020’s days to cover of 24x.\n\nIn fact, against the gaming peer group, GameStop’s short position stands at a decade low, and is more typical of the group’s short interest of five years ago. This idea is graphed below.\n\nTechnical Chart Pattern\nWhile the chart pattern was basing with positive underlying momentum at $5 a share 18 months ago, today the technical picture is weak during a more volatile zig-zag pattern. Price is doing its best to remain above the important 200-day moving average around $183 currently, and the blip higher in November is a short-term positive. However, my favorite momentum indicators are either bearish or neutral on the stock. The Accumulation/Distribution Line and Negative Volume Index are amazingly weak for a stock not in price decline, while On Balance Volume has done nothing positive since March. It appears trading activity has been a standoff between small aggressive retail buyers and regular selling by hedge funds and institutions. Who will break the tie?\n\nFinal Thoughts\nWould I short GameStop around $200 a share? I am not currently contemplating such a trade, because it is “the” posterchild of the meme craze. Plus, I can see a resurgence in Covid-19 spread over the winter causing some money to flow into stay-at-home entertainment names, like those in the gaming industry. However, a price break below $183 (the 200-day moving average) could mean a serious sell-off from its overvaluation plateau may be starting.\nI come up with possible upside of $250 a share in 12 months, to a worst-case scenario well under $100 per share. I rate the shares aNeutraltoAvoidselection for rational investors. There are hundreds of other stocks with better risk/reward setups than GameStop. And, I write about the strongest buy propositions I can find on Wall Street in my articles. All told, I would prefer to own any of the five peer companies mentioned in this article over GameStop for buy-and-hold portfolio designs. I specifically suggested Walmart several weeks ago here as a defensive blue-chip buy candidate.\nIf you hold shares, I absolutely think it prudent to lighten up your position in case a major bear market hits the U.S. equity market into 2022. Under such a scenario, newbie and weaker-hand owners of the stock could sell en masse, just like they bought during January. If business sales trends fail to meet expectations in a recession next year, valuations may not support the stock until $100 or even $50 a share is reached. At least, that’s how past recessions and stock market busts have affected leading mania picks, opposite of the straight up ride during the boom.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1361,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["GME"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":73,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":6772021,"commentId":"6772021","gmtCreate":1638197928867,"gmtModify":1638197928867,"authorId":3566385558470298,"author":{"id":3566385558470298,"idStr":"3566385558470298","authorId":3566385558470298,"name":"Venus_M","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525433622d774840840ddaacaf2281d2","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":600470585,"objectIdStr":"600470585","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"time will proof to them","text":"time will proof to them","html":"time will proof to them","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/600470585"}