AndrewL
2021-11-29
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Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀可能对周一股市交易意味着什么</blockquote>
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Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.</p><p><blockquote>黑色星期五缩短交易时段期间的市场抛售，以及投资者希望在新的流动性限制下表现更好的资产的相应撤离，帮助掩盖了人们通常对零售业的关注，而这一天与圣诞节假期前消费者支出大量相关。周五的低迷也清楚地提醒人们，市场和经济的道路取决于新冠疫情的进程。</blockquote></p><p> What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚的是，最新的冠状病毒发展是否会对市场造成持久损害。对于乐观的投资者来说，奥密克戎正值脆弱时期，空头指出，股市估值过高、通胀担忧和全球经济增长担忧是预期成功避免从 5% 以上峰值下跌的股市将下跌的原因。</blockquote></p><p> In theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，周五感恩节后的环境传统上交易清淡，因此更容易受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange -owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克在黑色星期五创下今年最低成交量，成交量为 34.79 亿股，远低于年初至今 50.99 亿股的平均水平。根据道琼斯市场数据，包括洲际交易所旗下纽约证券交易所平台上的交易在内的总综合交易量为 87.60 亿美元，而年初至今的平均水平为 111.96 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Still, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，只有时间才能证明对奥密克戎的反应是教科书式的、下意识的抛售还是更险恶的东西。</blockquote></p><p> MarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch 的 Bill Watts 援引 Arbeter Investments 的 Mark Arbeter 周五的研究写道，标普500周五收于 4,594.62 点后，下一个值得关注的支撑位是 4,570 点，即 50 天指数平均线；4,566，反弹38.2%回撤；4,550，创9月初以来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“现在知道新变种将在多大程度上影响经济和市场还为时过早，周五的市场走势可能会因美国感恩节假期导致流动性减少以及周末出现更多坏消息的风险而加剧，”凯投宏观高级市场经济学家乔纳斯·戈尔特曼在周五的研究报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.</p><p><blockquote>J.C。全明星图表博客的Parets写道，如果标普500跌破4500点，事情可能会变得危险，低于4500点几乎没有支撑。</blockquote></p><p> \"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.</p><p><blockquote>“你知道父母总是告诉你午夜之后不会有什么好事发生吗？在标普500，4500 以下不会有什么好事发生，”他在周五的博客中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfdc3ebd8825870bc713469baf0d1b2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>All Star Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>所有星图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.</p><p><blockquote>帕雷特写道：“如果我们低于这个水平，那么可能会出现更大的问题，18 个月来最严重的现金头寸将是合理的。”</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析人士说，在公共卫生方面，有合理的理由感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷全球首席投资官 Michael Strobaek 在一份研究报告中写道：“这种变种的传播速度似乎比之前的版本（包括德尔塔变异毒株）快得多，这一事实需要非常仔细的监控。”由于奥密克戎变体在刺突蛋白上携带的突变数量，辉瑞和Moderna现有COVID疫苗的有效性存在一些问题。刺突蛋白是新冠肺炎疫苗针对的病毒部分。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.</p><p><blockquote>由分析师肖恩·达比 (Sean Darby) 领导的杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 分析师指出，在黑色星期五之前，风险偏好已经在逐渐下降，抛售可能是有利于谨慎和风险适度的“临界点”。</blockquote></p><p> \"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师写道：“一种新的或不那么新的新冠病毒变种在南部非洲传播的消息似乎是过去 24 小时内改变风险偏好的转折点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，过去一个月风险变量发生了巨大变化——‘尾随国债拍卖’数量增加、股票市场广度下降以及美国零售偏好似乎没有被注意到的不易察觉的变化。全球股市的定位是美国历史上最激进的股票之一，”达比和他的同事表示。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞的研究表明，投资者现在预计，在重新提名的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的领导下，美联储将加快减少央行资产购买的步伐，这将导致金融状况收紧，这可能不利于风险资产。高盛预计美联储将从每月 150 亿美元缩减规模加大至 300 亿美元，并预计 2022 年将加息三次，高于两次。</blockquote></p><p> \"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞写道：“最终，夏普比率（衡量每单位风险回报的指标）将适用于全球股市。我们预计风险资产和避险资产的表现之间的差距将会缩小。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b6cd6fadb4dd80d04e06539404155\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>via Jefferies</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过杰富瑞</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于大胆的投资者来说，这种情况仍然可能是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Strobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"</p><p><blockquote>斯特罗贝克写道，“股票等风险资产可能会恢复一些实力，但我们将此视为选择性和特定领域的机会。”</blockquote></p><p> \"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席信息官写道：“在这一点上，我们重申我们对最新投资委员会报告的评估，即将投资组合中的股票保持在较小的跑赢大盘，将政府债券保持在跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师还表示，“我们会在任何下跌时买入”，并指出其看跌清单并未显示出重大危险信号。花旗写道：“估值看起来捉襟见肘，但其他因素（信用利差、资金流动）尚未特别扩大。”花旗在衡量全球市场时触发了 18 个危险信号中的 7.5 个，而美国则触发了 18 个危险信号中的 9.5 个。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fba734970a8c977a13d6972402b65f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Citi Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>花旗研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州切斯特港 AXS Investments 首席执行官格雷格·巴苏克 (Greg Bassuk) 表示，周末的抛售可能导致股市投资者遭遇黑色星期五抛售。</blockquote></p><p> \"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote</p><p><blockquote>“黑色星期五通常是一年一度假日购物季的非官方开始。但我们认为，真正的购物是针对那些因新冠感染激增、通胀担忧和供应链困境而遭受重创，但仍然拥有强劲基本面的股票，随着经济最终重新开放，这将推动它们上涨，”他写道</blockquote></p><p> That said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，一些分析师指出，即使在奥密克戎宣言发表之前，欧洲的封锁和新冠病毒的传播也是保持谨慎的理由，因为它们将影响全球增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.</p><p><blockquote>无论哪种方式，买家似乎都可能在下周生效，并可能影响 2021 年剩余时间的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Trading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.</p><p><blockquote>周一的交易将有助于确定看涨情绪是否持续，或者看跌阶段是否正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.</p><p><blockquote>这将是关注就业状况的一周，11月美国就业报告将于本周末发布，鲍威尔和其他人将在12月14日至15日联邦公开市场委员会2021年最后一次会议之前的媒体封锁期开始之前提供他们的最终想法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀可能对周一股市交易意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀可能对周一股市交易意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-29 07:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OMG, omicron!</p><p><blockquote>天哪，奥密克戎!</blockquote></p><p> The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>世界卫生组织宣布的新型、快速传播的 B.1.1.529 冠状病毒株为令人担忧的变种，在黑色星期五扰乱了全球市场，引发了人们对未来一周经济和华尔街表现的担忧，此前抛售抹去了标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数 11 月份的涨幅，并导致道琼斯工业平均指数创下 2020 年 10 月 28 日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> WHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.</p><p><blockquote>世卫组织表示，已在比利时、以色列和中国香港发现并首次在非洲南部发现的奥密克戎变种比目前在全球占主导地位的德尔塔毒株和其他变种更具传染性。</blockquote></p><p> The emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.</p><p><blockquote>新毒株的出现导致白宫宣布从周一开始限制来自南非以及博茨瓦纳、津巴布韦、纳米比亚、莱索托、斯威士兰、莫桑比克和马拉维的非美国公民和居民的旅行，加入了欧盟、英国、新加坡和日本的行列，这些国家也宣布了类似的旅行禁令。</blockquote></p><p> The market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.</p><p><blockquote>黑色星期五缩短交易时段期间的市场抛售，以及投资者希望在新的流动性限制下表现更好的资产的相应撤离，帮助掩盖了人们通常对零售业的关注，而这一天与圣诞节假期前消费者支出大量相关。周五的低迷也清楚地提醒人们，市场和经济的道路取决于新冠疫情的进程。</blockquote></p><p> What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚的是，最新的冠状病毒发展是否会对市场造成持久损害。对于乐观的投资者来说，奥密克戎正值脆弱时期，空头指出，股市估值过高、通胀担忧和全球经济增长担忧是预期成功避免从 5% 以上峰值下跌的股市将下跌的原因。</blockquote></p><p> In theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，周五感恩节后的环境传统上交易清淡，因此更容易受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange -owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克在黑色星期五创下今年最低成交量，成交量为 34.79 亿股，远低于年初至今 50.99 亿股的平均水平。根据道琼斯市场数据，包括洲际交易所旗下纽约证券交易所平台上的交易在内的总综合交易量为 87.60 亿美元，而年初至今的平均水平为 111.96 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Still, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，只有时间才能证明对奥密克戎的反应是教科书式的、下意识的抛售还是更险恶的东西。</blockquote></p><p> MarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch 的 Bill Watts 援引 Arbeter Investments 的 Mark Arbeter 周五的研究写道，标普500周五收于 4,594.62 点后，下一个值得关注的支撑位是 4,570 点，即 50 天指数平均线；4,566，反弹38.2%回撤；4,550，创9月初以来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“现在知道新变种将在多大程度上影响经济和市场还为时过早，周五的市场走势可能会因美国感恩节假期导致流动性减少以及周末出现更多坏消息的风险而加剧，”凯投宏观高级市场经济学家乔纳斯·戈尔特曼在周五的研究报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.</p><p><blockquote>J.C。全明星图表博客的Parets写道，如果标普500跌破4500点，事情可能会变得危险，低于4500点几乎没有支撑。</blockquote></p><p> \"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.</p><p><blockquote>“你知道父母总是告诉你午夜之后不会有什么好事发生吗？在标普500，4500 以下不会有什么好事发生，”他在周五的博客中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfdc3ebd8825870bc713469baf0d1b2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>All Star Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>所有星图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.</p><p><blockquote>帕雷特写道：“如果我们低于这个水平，那么可能会出现更大的问题，18 个月来最严重的现金头寸将是合理的。”</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析人士说，在公共卫生方面，有合理的理由感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷全球首席投资官 Michael Strobaek 在一份研究报告中写道：“这种变种的传播速度似乎比之前的版本（包括德尔塔变异毒株）快得多，这一事实需要非常仔细的监控。”由于奥密克戎变体在刺突蛋白上携带的突变数量，辉瑞和Moderna现有COVID疫苗的有效性存在一些问题。刺突蛋白是新冠肺炎疫苗针对的病毒部分。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.</p><p><blockquote>由分析师肖恩·达比 (Sean Darby) 领导的杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 分析师指出，在黑色星期五之前，风险偏好已经在逐渐下降，抛售可能是有利于谨慎和风险适度的“临界点”。</blockquote></p><p> \"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师写道：“一种新的或不那么新的新冠病毒变种在南部非洲传播的消息似乎是过去 24 小时内改变风险偏好的转折点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，过去一个月风险变量发生了巨大变化——‘尾随国债拍卖’数量增加、股票市场广度下降以及美国零售偏好似乎没有被注意到的不易察觉的变化。全球股市的定位是美国历史上最激进的股票之一，”达比和他的同事表示。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞的研究表明，投资者现在预计，在重新提名的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的领导下，美联储将加快减少央行资产购买的步伐，这将导致金融状况收紧，这可能不利于风险资产。高盛预计美联储将从每月 150 亿美元缩减规模加大至 300 亿美元，并预计 2022 年将加息三次，高于两次。</blockquote></p><p> \"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞写道：“最终，夏普比率（衡量每单位风险回报的指标）将适用于全球股市。我们预计风险资产和避险资产的表现之间的差距将会缩小。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b6cd6fadb4dd80d04e06539404155\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>via Jefferies</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过杰富瑞</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于大胆的投资者来说，这种情况仍然可能是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Strobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"</p><p><blockquote>斯特罗贝克写道，“股票等风险资产可能会恢复一些实力，但我们将此视为选择性和特定领域的机会。”</blockquote></p><p> \"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席信息官写道：“在这一点上，我们重申我们对最新投资委员会报告的评估，即将投资组合中的股票保持在较小的跑赢大盘，将政府债券保持在跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师还表示，“我们会在任何下跌时买入”，并指出其看跌清单并未显示出重大危险信号。花旗写道：“估值看起来捉襟见肘，但其他因素（信用利差、资金流动）尚未特别扩大。”花旗在衡量全球市场时触发了 18 个危险信号中的 7.5 个，而美国则触发了 18 个危险信号中的 9.5 个。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fba734970a8c977a13d6972402b65f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Citi Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>花旗研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州切斯特港 AXS Investments 首席执行官格雷格·巴苏克 (Greg Bassuk) 表示，周末的抛售可能导致股市投资者遭遇黑色星期五抛售。</blockquote></p><p> \"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote</p><p><blockquote>“黑色星期五通常是一年一度假日购物季的非官方开始。但我们认为，真正的购物是针对那些因新冠感染激增、通胀担忧和供应链困境而遭受重创，但仍然拥有强劲基本面的股票，随着经济最终重新开放，这将推动它们上涨，”他写道</blockquote></p><p> That said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，一些分析师指出，即使在奥密克戎宣言发表之前，欧洲的封锁和新冠病毒的传播也是保持谨慎的理由，因为它们将影响全球增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.</p><p><blockquote>无论哪种方式，买家似乎都可能在下周生效，并可能影响 2021 年剩余时间的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Trading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.</p><p><blockquote>周一的交易将有助于确定看涨情绪是否持续，或者看跌阶段是否正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.</p><p><blockquote>这将是关注就业状况的一周，11月美国就业报告将于本周末发布，鲍威尔和其他人将在12月14日至15日联邦公开市场委员会2021年最后一次会议之前的媒体封锁期开始之前提供他们的最终想法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-black-friday-carnage-may-mean-for-the-stock-markets-trade-monday-analysts-say-11638021516?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PFE":"辉瑞","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4007":"制药","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-black-friday-carnage-may-mean-for-the-stock-markets-trade-monday-analysts-say-11638021516?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2187329491","content_text":"OMG, omicron!\nThe new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.\nWHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.\nThe emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.\nThe market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.\nWhat isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.\nIn theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.\nThe Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange -owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nStill, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.\nMarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.\n\"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.\nJ.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.\n\"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.\nAll Star Charts\n\"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.\nSome analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.\n\"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.\nAnalyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.\n\"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.\n\"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.\nJefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.\n\"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.\nvia Jefferies\nThe situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.\nStrobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"\n\"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.\nAnalysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.\nCiti Research\nGreg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.\n\"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote\nThat said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.\nEither way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.\nTrading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.\nIt will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"END":0.9,"ICE":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"PFE":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/600489646"}
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