HawTK
2021-12-03
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Wall Street Expert Says: Apple Stock Will Reach $3.2 Trillion
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At these levels, shares of the Cupertino company would be worth over $3.2 trillion within the next 12 months — a new Street-high target.</p>\n<p>The Apple Maven talks about how AAPL might get to those levels. Could investors be in for a nice bull run that pushes Apple stock 20% higher from here?</p>\n<p>iPhone at the core of the bull case</p>\n<p>According to Dan Ives’ tweet, the key drivers that could send AAPL past the $3.2 trillion valuation are the same that supported the analyst’s recently discussed bull thesis. The iPhone 13 cycle is shaping up to be at least as strong as Wedbush itself predicted, and better than most analysts anticipated.</p>\n<p>About a week ago, I discussed how Wall Street has slowly warmed up to the idea that tough comps and supply chain bottlenecks might not be enough to spoil Apple’s holiday quarter. Based on Dan Ives’ unit shipment projections of 40 million iPhones between Black Friday and Christmas, I estimate that segment revenues in fiscal Q1 could rise by 10% this year.</p>\n<p>What it would take</p>\n<p>Currently, analysts expect Apple to deliver fiscal 2022 EPS of $5.70, suggesting that the stock trades at a current-year P/E of 29 times. Make no mistake, this is a rich multiple. But by the end of next year, investors should start to value Apple stock on a multiple of 2023 earnings, or 27 times.</p>\n<p>To count on valuation expansion, in this case, might be a bit of a stretch. Now seems to be a perfect-storm scenario for Apple: low interest rates, successful product cycles (iPhone, Mac, iPad and beyond), defensive play against COVID-19 fears, etc.</p>\n<p>But that does not mean that Apple cannot deliver above-expectation financial results, thus pushing the stock price higher. I think this is even more likely if the Cupertino company announces its mixed reality devices in the second half of fiscal 2022, as some believe to be the case.</p>\n<p>One step back first?</p>\n<p>I do have a problem, however, with the idea that Apple stock might shoot straight up from $166 per share to $200 in the next year.</p>\n<p>As I discussed earlier today, AAPL has outperformed the S&P 500 (<b>SPY</b>) since mid-November by the most in over a year. While some may think that the recent rally is justifiable, history suggests that a near-term pullback relative to the broad market is certainly not out of question.</p>\n<p>Based on my research, the average excess return (i.e. above the S&P 500) of holding AAPL over any three-week period in the past five years has been +1.3%. However, this number dips to -0.5% when AAPL has outperformed SPY by more than 10 percentage points in the previous three weeks.</p>\n<p>In plain English, Apple stock has historically underperformed the S&P 500 in the short term if and once it outperforms the benchmark by a wide margin in the recent past. This is precisely the current setup.</p>\n<p>I am not necessarily a skeptic on the $200 price target for 2022. However, for the reason presented above, I think that AAPL could take a step back first, at least relative to the broad market, before heading higher by the end of next year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Expert Says: Apple Stock Will Reach $3.2 Trillion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Expert Says: Apple Stock Will Reach $3.2 Trillion\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 10:29 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/wall-street-expert-says-apple-stock-will-reach-3-2-trillion><strong>Thestreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Late on December 1, Wedbush’s Dan Ives tweeted his revised price target on Apple stock: $200 apiece. At these levels, shares of the Cupertino company would be worth over $3.2 trillion within the next ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/wall-street-expert-says-apple-stock-will-reach-3-2-trillion\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/wall-street-expert-says-apple-stock-will-reach-3-2-trillion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199551215","content_text":"Late on December 1, Wedbush’s Dan Ives tweeted his revised price target on Apple stock: $200 apiece. At these levels, shares of the Cupertino company would be worth over $3.2 trillion within the next 12 months — a new Street-high target.\nThe Apple Maven talks about how AAPL might get to those levels. Could investors be in for a nice bull run that pushes Apple stock 20% higher from here?\niPhone at the core of the bull case\nAccording to Dan Ives’ tweet, the key drivers that could send AAPL past the $3.2 trillion valuation are the same that supported the analyst’s recently discussed bull thesis. The iPhone 13 cycle is shaping up to be at least as strong as Wedbush itself predicted, and better than most analysts anticipated.\nAbout a week ago, I discussed how Wall Street has slowly warmed up to the idea that tough comps and supply chain bottlenecks might not be enough to spoil Apple’s holiday quarter. Based on Dan Ives’ unit shipment projections of 40 million iPhones between Black Friday and Christmas, I estimate that segment revenues in fiscal Q1 could rise by 10% this year.\nWhat it would take\nCurrently, analysts expect Apple to deliver fiscal 2022 EPS of $5.70, suggesting that the stock trades at a current-year P/E of 29 times. Make no mistake, this is a rich multiple. But by the end of next year, investors should start to value Apple stock on a multiple of 2023 earnings, or 27 times.\nTo count on valuation expansion, in this case, might be a bit of a stretch. Now seems to be a perfect-storm scenario for Apple: low interest rates, successful product cycles (iPhone, Mac, iPad and beyond), defensive play against COVID-19 fears, etc.\nBut that does not mean that Apple cannot deliver above-expectation financial results, thus pushing the stock price higher. I think this is even more likely if the Cupertino company announces its mixed reality devices in the second half of fiscal 2022, as some believe to be the case.\nOne step back first?\nI do have a problem, however, with the idea that Apple stock might shoot straight up from $166 per share to $200 in the next year.\nAs I discussed earlier today, AAPL has outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY) since mid-November by the most in over a year. While some may think that the recent rally is justifiable, history suggests that a near-term pullback relative to the broad market is certainly not out of question.\nBased on my research, the average excess return (i.e. above the S&P 500) of holding AAPL over any three-week period in the past five years has been +1.3%. However, this number dips to -0.5% when AAPL has outperformed SPY by more than 10 percentage points in the previous three weeks.\nIn plain English, Apple stock has historically underperformed the S&P 500 in the short term if and once it outperforms the benchmark by a wide margin in the recent past. This is precisely the current setup.\nI am not necessarily a skeptic on the $200 price target for 2022. 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