浙里枫
08-27 18:33
一天天的大空头,大空头的,这家伙近期胜率23%
“大空头”Michael Burry买入英伟达看涨期权“对冲”,同时加码做空
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
圆头蝴蝶
08-27 21:20
圆头蝴蝶
没那么高
什么也没有了~
APP内打开
发表看法
1
1
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":601251256295792,"tweetId":"601251256295792","gmtCreate":1787826810911,"gmtModify":1787829384971,"author":{"id":4205150523116642,"idStr":"4205150523116642","authorId":4205150523116642,"authorIdStr":"4205150523116642","name":"浙里枫","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>一天天的大空头,大空头的,这家伙近期胜率23%</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>一天天的大空头,大空头的,这家伙近期胜率23%</p></body></html>","text":"一天天的大空头,大空头的,这家伙近期胜率23%","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601251256295792","repostId":2662779042,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2662779042","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1787819405,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2662779042?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-27 16:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“大空头”Michael Burry买入英伟达看涨期权“对冲”,同时加码做空","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2662779042","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Burry在社交平台Substack中披露,英伟达财报前买入12月到期、行权价200美元中高区间的看涨期权(占组合3.5%-4%),但强调这仅用于“对冲其空头敞口”而非看多。他认为英伟达垄断优势难持久且AI资本开支将挤压回报,目前其做空英伟达、甲骨文等多只股票的空头仓位已超投资组合的21%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>Michael Burry在Substack披露,他在财报前买入了英伟达12月到期的看涨期权(行权价200多美元中高段,占组合3.5%-4%),但强调这仅为“对冲”而非看多。同时,他目前做空英伟达、甲骨文等多只股票的空头仓位已超组合的21%,因其认为英伟达垄断难持久、资本开支将挤压回报。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达财报前夕,长期看空者Michael Burry罕见出手买入该股看涨期权,但他明确表示这不过是一次"对冲",其看空立场依然未变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据StockTwits 27日报道,Burry在社交平台Substack中披露,<strong>已买入12月到期、行权价位于200美元中高区间的英伟达看涨期权,并将该仓位定性为对冲其庞大空头敞口的工具。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,<strong>他进一步加码做空英伟达、甲骨文(Oracle)、Palantir、Nebius和卡特彼勒(Caterpillar),目前其空头股票仓位(不含看跌期权)已超过整体投资组合的21%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0064e6fee69bedad1c0a7a4ab36141d9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1039\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>面对这种“一边加码做空、一边买看涨期权”的操作,Burry特别澄清这并非看好股价:</strong>“我做这笔交易并不是为了靠上涨获利。”他表示,如果不是自己手中握有庞大的做空和看跌期权(Put)头寸,他根本不会买入看涨期权。买看涨期权虽然支付了权利金,但已被其做空头寸的收益完全抵消。目前这笔涨期权仓位约占其投资组合的3.5%至4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而这种"Buying Calls as Hedge against a massive Short"的期权组合策略,本质上是在"扩大做空规模"的同时,花了一小笔钱买了一份"防暴涨保险",其整体的实际空头头寸(Short Position)反而是在增加的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他坦言,历史上他在财报前围绕空头仓位使用此类策略,但承认"过往记录并不出色"。他同时指出,英伟达近期财报后的股价走势"跌多涨少",而即将公布的财报结果"不过是一次掷硬币"。"市场并不相信,"他写道,"今天或许会暂时重建信心,但也只是暂时的。"</p><h2 id=\"c4b9bca\">估值逻辑:垄断优势将尽,盈利面临冲击</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管Burry承认英伟达表面上市盈率偏低、且坐拥垄断定价权,看似"明显低估",但他认为这一表象具有误导性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他的核心论点在于:<strong>英伟达的垄断地位存续时间将短于市场预期,盈利利润率随之下滑;公司"不会向股东分配足够的回报",资本将更多流向资本开支和多元化投资;而其在"泡沫顶部附近及穿越顶部"的持续投入,可能在"并不遥远的未来"导致盈利出现"惊人的下滑"。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他将英伟达AI扩张与安然的融资结构相提并论,并此前在Substack发文指出,当前AI基础设施投资热潮中,大量资本开支并未对应真实终端需求,而是通过不透明融资结构自我循环,存在系统性高估风险。</p><h2 id=\"21\">空头仓位全面扩张,超过组合21%</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Burry本周加码做空了英伟达、甲骨文、Palantir、Nebius和卡特彼勒。其空头股票仓位(不含看跌期权)目前已超过整体投资组合的21%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,他也在多头方向积累仓位。他以30美元中段价格加仓Birkenstock(BIRK),称已建成完整仓位;以5美元中段加仓房地美(Freddie Mac,FMCC),并表示在房利美(Fannie Mae)持有大额仓位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从更长周期看,Burry今年的多空策略承受着明显的市场压力。截至目前,他做空的英伟达年内累计上涨逾12%,Nebius更飙涨逾150%;而他做多的Palantir年内下跌近5%,甲骨文跌逾23%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在交易层面持续承压的背景下,其Substack付费订阅通讯"Cassandra Unchained"上线231天已突破30万订阅者,按年费379美元测算,理论年收入约1.137亿美元,成为其另一条引人关注的收益线。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“大空头”Michael Burry买入英伟达看涨期权“对冲”,同时加码做空</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“大空头”Michael Burry买入英伟达看涨期权“对冲”,同时加码做空\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-27 16:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>Michael Burry在Substack披露,他在财报前买入了英伟达12月到期的看涨期权(行权价200多美元中高段,占组合3.5%-4%),但强调这仅为“对冲”而非看多。同时,他目前做空英伟达、甲骨文等多只股票的空头仓位已超组合的21%,因其认为英伟达垄断难持久、资本开支将挤压回报。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达财报前夕,长期看空者Michael Burry罕见出手买入该股看涨期权,但他明确表示这不过是一次"对冲",其看空立场依然未变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据StockTwits 27日报道,Burry在社交平台Substack中披露,<strong>已买入12月到期、行权价位于200美元中高区间的英伟达看涨期权,并将该仓位定性为对冲其庞大空头敞口的工具。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,<strong>他进一步加码做空英伟达、甲骨文(Oracle)、Palantir、Nebius和卡特彼勒(Caterpillar),目前其空头股票仓位(不含看跌期权)已超过整体投资组合的21%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0064e6fee69bedad1c0a7a4ab36141d9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1039\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>面对这种“一边加码做空、一边买看涨期权”的操作,Burry特别澄清这并非看好股价:</strong>“我做这笔交易并不是为了靠上涨获利。”他表示,如果不是自己手中握有庞大的做空和看跌期权(Put)头寸,他根本不会买入看涨期权。买看涨期权虽然支付了权利金,但已被其做空头寸的收益完全抵消。目前这笔涨期权仓位约占其投资组合的3.5%至4%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而这种"Buying Calls as Hedge against a massive Short"的期权组合策略,本质上是在"扩大做空规模"的同时,花了一小笔钱买了一份"防暴涨保险",其整体的实际空头头寸(Short Position)反而是在增加的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他坦言,历史上他在财报前围绕空头仓位使用此类策略,但承认"过往记录并不出色"。他同时指出,英伟达近期财报后的股价走势"跌多涨少",而即将公布的财报结果"不过是一次掷硬币"。"市场并不相信,"他写道,"今天或许会暂时重建信心,但也只是暂时的。"</p><h2 id=\"c4b9bca\">估值逻辑:垄断优势将尽,盈利面临冲击</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管Burry承认英伟达表面上市盈率偏低、且坐拥垄断定价权,看似"明显低估",但他认为这一表象具有误导性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他的核心论点在于:<strong>英伟达的垄断地位存续时间将短于市场预期,盈利利润率随之下滑;公司"不会向股东分配足够的回报",资本将更多流向资本开支和多元化投资;而其在"泡沫顶部附近及穿越顶部"的持续投入,可能在"并不遥远的未来"导致盈利出现"惊人的下滑"。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他将英伟达AI扩张与安然的融资结构相提并论,并此前在Substack发文指出,当前AI基础设施投资热潮中,大量资本开支并未对应真实终端需求,而是通过不透明融资结构自我循环,存在系统性高估风险。</p><h2 id=\"21\">空头仓位全面扩张,超过组合21%</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Burry本周加码做空了英伟达、甲骨文、Palantir、Nebius和卡特彼勒。其空头股票仓位(不含看跌期权)目前已超过整体投资组合的21%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,他也在多头方向积累仓位。他以30美元中段价格加仓Birkenstock(BIRK),称已建成完整仓位;以5美元中段加仓房地美(Freddie Mac,FMCC),并表示在房利美(Fannie Mae)持有大额仓位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从更长周期看,Burry今年的多空策略承受着明显的市场压力。截至目前,他做空的英伟达年内累计上涨逾12%,Nebius更飙涨逾150%;而他做多的Palantir年内下跌近5%,甲骨文跌逾23%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在交易层面持续承压的背景下,其Substack付费订阅通讯"Cassandra Unchained"上线231天已突破30万订阅者,按年费379美元测算,理论年收入约1.137亿美元,成为其另一条引人关注的收益线。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71cd54827eeee4802f0d242902de8bb3","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3780433","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2662779042","content_text":"Michael Burry在Substack披露,他在财报前买入了英伟达12月到期的看涨期权(行权价200多美元中高段,占组合3.5%-4%),但强调这仅为“对冲”而非看多。同时,他目前做空英伟达、甲骨文等多只股票的空头仓位已超组合的21%,因其认为英伟达垄断难持久、资本开支将挤压回报。英伟达财报前夕,长期看空者Michael Burry罕见出手买入该股看涨期权,但他明确表示这不过是一次\"对冲\",其看空立场依然未变。据StockTwits 27日报道,Burry在社交平台Substack中披露,已买入12月到期、行权价位于200美元中高区间的英伟达看涨期权,并将该仓位定性为对冲其庞大空头敞口的工具。与此同时,他进一步加码做空英伟达、甲骨文(Oracle)、Palantir、Nebius和卡特彼勒(Caterpillar),目前其空头股票仓位(不含看跌期权)已超过整体投资组合的21%。面对这种“一边加码做空、一边买看涨期权”的操作,Burry特别澄清这并非看好股价:“我做这笔交易并不是为了靠上涨获利。”他表示,如果不是自己手中握有庞大的做空和看跌期权(Put)头寸,他根本不会买入看涨期权。买看涨期权虽然支付了权利金,但已被其做空头寸的收益完全抵消。目前这笔涨期权仓位约占其投资组合的3.5%至4%。而这种\"Buying Calls as Hedge against a massive Short\"的期权组合策略,本质上是在\"扩大做空规模\"的同时,花了一小笔钱买了一份\"防暴涨保险\",其整体的实际空头头寸(Short Position)反而是在增加的。他坦言,历史上他在财报前围绕空头仓位使用此类策略,但承认\"过往记录并不出色\"。他同时指出,英伟达近期财报后的股价走势\"跌多涨少\",而即将公布的财报结果\"不过是一次掷硬币\"。\"市场并不相信,\"他写道,\"今天或许会暂时重建信心,但也只是暂时的。\"估值逻辑:垄断优势将尽,盈利面临冲击尽管Burry承认英伟达表面上市盈率偏低、且坐拥垄断定价权,看似\"明显低估\",但他认为这一表象具有误导性。他的核心论点在于:英伟达的垄断地位存续时间将短于市场预期,盈利利润率随之下滑;公司\"不会向股东分配足够的回报\",资本将更多流向资本开支和多元化投资;而其在\"泡沫顶部附近及穿越顶部\"的持续投入,可能在\"并不遥远的未来\"导致盈利出现\"惊人的下滑\"。他将英伟达AI扩张与安然的融资结构相提并论,并此前在Substack发文指出,当前AI基础设施投资热潮中,大量资本开支并未对应真实终端需求,而是通过不透明融资结构自我循环,存在系统性高估风险。空头仓位全面扩张,超过组合21%Burry本周加码做空了英伟达、甲骨文、Palantir、Nebius和卡特彼勒。其空头股票仓位(不含看跌期权)目前已超过整体投资组合的21%。与此同时,他也在多头方向积累仓位。他以30美元中段价格加仓Birkenstock(BIRK),称已建成完整仓位;以5美元中段加仓房地美(Freddie Mac,FMCC),并表示在房利美(Fannie Mae)持有大额仓位。从更长周期看,Burry今年的多空策略承受着明显的市场压力。截至目前,他做空的英伟达年内累计上涨逾12%,Nebius更飙涨逾150%;而他做多的Palantir年内下跌近5%,甲骨文跌逾23%。在交易层面持续承压的背景下,其Substack付费订阅通讯\"Cassandra Unchained\"上线231天已突破30万订阅者,按年费379美元测算,理论年收入约1.137亿美元,成为其另一条引人关注的收益线。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VGT":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"AIPI":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"ABFL":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"ESLG":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"NVDA":1.5,"CNEQ":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"ESUM":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"THMR":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"VT":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"AIFD":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"NVDD":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":41,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":601291752088976,"commentId":"601291752088976","gmtCreate":1787836801661,"gmtModify":1787836805505,"authorId":4212982252329032,"author":{"id":4212982252329032,"idStr":"4212982252329032","authorId":4212982252329032,"name":"圆头蝴蝶","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11f975c3d0ccf067e1b550357847e22c","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc-3","templateUuid":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc","name":"知识航海家","description":"观看学堂课程满50节","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21acbb5884e07b96522d8d84c4b7acea","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e8dc2edfbfee912f4e68fe6c23b3f0","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.05","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"wearingSort":1},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc-3","name":"知识航海家","description":"观看学堂课程满50节","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e8dc2edfbfee912f4e68fe6c23b3f0","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21acbb5884e07b96522d8d84c4b7acea","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":601251256295792,"objectIdStr":"601251256295792","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"没那么高","text":"没那么高","html":"没那么高","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/601251256295792"}
精彩评论